Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lend Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at AgMarket.net. We'll explore early season or preemergence herbicide applications with Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Extension wheat scientist.

Todd Gleason: 00:24

And then as we close out our time together, we'll talk about the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tanorum at T Storm Weather all on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio with the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at WILLAG.0rg.

announcer: 00:46

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 00:51

May corn for the day settled at $4.5 a penny and a quarter lower. July at $4.58 down one. December new crop three quarters lower at $4.43 and three quarters. May beans at $10.16 and three quarters, up fifteen and three quarters. November at $10.20 and a half, up thirteen and three quarters.

Todd Gleason: 01:09

Meal, 90¢ higher. Bean oil up a dollar 57, and soft red winter wheat three and three quarters lower at $5.47 and a quarter. Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us on this Thursday afternoon to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Matt. Thanks for being with us.

Matt Bennett: 01:24

Yeah. Absolutely.

Todd Gleason: 01:25

It's been a busy twenty four hours in Washington DC. Lots of tariff news there. Did it impact the marketplace at all today?

Matt Bennett: 01:32

Yeah. The market was pretty dead on the corn side. Actually, beans rallied strongly. You know, I've gotta think that a lot of that has to do with just a lot of the talk that, you know, these acreage estimates that are coming in are fairly low on soybeans. And, you know, overall, I think, you know, you've got, you've had such a strong corn market versus soybeans for so long, you know, that that ratio is probably gonna have to come back intact just a little bit.

Matt Bennett: 01:58

And, I think that that had a lot to do with some of this buying coming in.

Todd Gleason: 02:00

And as you look forward to it, what are you telling producers as it's related to this year's crop in that case?

Matt Bennett: 02:07

Yeah, I think with corn, it just looks rough right now. We've done nothing but slide here lately. Broke the two hundred day moving average there yesterday on May corn. And, you know, overall, I think a lot of people are frustrated with it, but it is awfully early. We just don't have any weather premium in this corn market whatsoever.

Matt Bennett: 02:24

Now if you come in Monday with a huge acreage number, which I think is quite possible, there's no doubt you could have some additional pressure on the market. You know? But are we gonna have any weather at all this summer? And I think given world stocks tightening the way that they have, you know, given The US balance sheet likely on the old crop being pretty darn tight, I've got to think that you'll at least have some people a little bit more nervous this summer than what they've been the last couple summers. So right now, I'm kind of in a wait and see mode as far as corn goes.

Matt Bennett: 02:53

Soybeans, I think you've got to consider, you know, with soybeans that if this acreage was low enough, it could finally be some of that support we've been looking for. You know, I'm not saying we're gonna rally through the roof necessarily, but we might have an opportunity to get back to some of those levels, you know, that we've seen before, whether it's $10.50 and above or, you know, whether you even get a run at $11 later on. Those are all possible. But this early in the year, there's no sense in locking in a loss. So I would just be patient here.

Todd Gleason: 03:19

USDA and the Ag Forum put the acreage figure for corn, I believe, at 94,000,000 acres. The AgMarket.net number is above that. Remind me of what it is, and then give me the justifications or the evidence that pushes you to the larger figure?

Matt Bennett: 03:36

Yeah. We're at 95.39. There's a few things that come to mind. I think as growers were trying to make their decision on acreage, you know, and through the winter time frame, soybean prices have been so, poor, if you will. A lot of guys and gals are looking to sub $10, fall cash bids.

Matt Bennett: 03:52

They're still there today. And so the lack of soybean profits made us feel that you'd really tumble as far as bean acres go. You know, with corn be at $95.03 9 for us, beans are down at $82.07 5. And so, you know, you would think that that ratio would really work in the favor of corn losing ground to soybeans as far as price goes. You know?

Matt Bennett: 04:14

And so we do we did survey everyone within the ag market and JSA world. And so everyone that works with growers directly, you know, contacted their growers to find out, hey, how much are you going to switch around? Are you going to be heavier corn? And we had an overwhelming response for heavier corn acres. So kinda go back to two years ago at ninety four six is what we put our baseline at.

Matt Bennett: 04:38

You know? And then we wanted to work up just a little bit from there, understanding that it is expensive to put this corn crop out. So we didn't wanna get super carried away, but we certainly feel like we're gonna be above where we're at two years ago.

Todd Gleason: 04:50

Is it and you probably have some anecdotal evidence of this because you were surveying so many places within the industry. Is your survey akin to what the old Informa survey used to be as it related to the number of elevators and such that were being contacted?

Matt Bennett: 05:08

Yeah, mean, we contacted a lot of elevators. So of course, GSA works with hundreds of elevators across the Corn Belt. And so, you know, there's a lot of different touch points that we get. We feel strongly that based upon their feedback to us, that soybeans was going to be a loser, of course, of acres, cotton would be a loser in the South and in the Delta, and that corn would definitely be a place people might go as far as the Delta is concerned, if they can get that in the ground. If they can't, they could gladly plant soybeans.

Matt Bennett: 05:40

They typically have a much better basis than we do up here. You get over into the Panhandle Of Texas and up through, the Western Corn Belt and, you know, basis for corn still stays pretty darn strong. A lot of usage in that part of the world. And so we feel like corn will be the place people wanna place their bets, if you will. But the last thing you gotta consider is, of course, crop insurance, whereas you were a nickel above where we're at a year ago for spring insurance price and soybeans a dollar lower than where we're at a year ago.

Matt Bennett: 06:08

So that safety net, if you will, that a lot of growers rely on pretty heavily certainly would favor corn winning the day whenever it comes to acres.

Todd Gleason: 06:18

You in past years had been an advocate, and I believe so this year too, with the crop insurance to use ECO to a higher number. How are you asking producers to manage that as it's related to their marketing?

Matt Bennett: 06:32

Yeah, I think it's definitely one of those things we got to research pretty thoroughly. So this year, of course, you had a little bit more of a, of a subsidy, if you will, to kind of support going that ECO route. I don't have any issue with that whatsoever, but we've been telling our growers, if nothing else, do a lot of research. There's good programs out there that will help you run through the math to tell you whether or not it's a good decision. And so I guess from my vantage point, I've got to think that there's going to be a fair amount of ECO this year.

Matt Bennett: 07:07

At the same time. I don't know that it's one of those deals that it's a one size fit all either. So again, I just think we gotta do a lot of homework. It's expensive to go out there and buy, you know, a decent insurance policy and then add another $15.20 an acre with ECO. And I understand people being hesitant with that.

Matt Bennett: 07:26

So again, I just think it's gotta be catered to the individual grower.

Todd Gleason: 07:29

Yeah. So I was wanting to know once they've done that, how is it that you included in their marketing plan and what should they be able to do because they have purchased it?

Matt Bennett: 07:36

Yeah. I mean, the problem with ECO, of course, is that it's more of a county policy than what it is, you know, as far as like, for instance, a revenue protection policy, which is based on your farm's bushels. So it's a little harder to work it into your marketing plan. It's kind of like the old grip policies, but this is just on a portion of your crop. So I don't think that you can take those bushels and say, hey, we're going to be able to know those bushels are going to show up by any means because if you're the worst part in the county and everyone else has a good crop, know, then ECO may not pay off very well for you.

Matt Bennett: 08:08

So it's really hard to use it, in my opinion, as a part of the marketing program.

Todd Gleason: 08:13

Okay. And anything else that we need to talk about before I let you go?

Matt Bennett: 08:17

No. I just think it's gonna be volatile. You know, it's been a rough kinda junky week this week, but next week, I think I think the fireworks could certainly happen. Let's hope that that's not to the downside because we've lost quite a bit of ground here lately.

Todd Gleason: 08:29

We'll look forward to those March reports from USDA. Thanks much, Matt.

Matt Bennett: 08:34

Oh, absolutely. Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 08:35

Matt Bennett is with AgMarket.net. The closing market report is a production of Illinois public media celebrating forty years of this program and more than 10,000 episodes. You may listen to it online on demand anytime you'd like at willag.o, Archie. The theme music for the closing market report is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason. You know weeds have been springing up with the warmer weather.

Todd Gleason: 09:07

It means farmers will need to take care as they finalize their weed control plans. The extension weed scientist from the Ovi, Aaron Hager, says producers need to keep track of what's in the field and to understand how each weed grows and reacts to the herbicides being used.

Aaron Hager: 09:25

Well, as most people are probably aware with the recent couple of weeks where we've had some fairly moderate to warm temperatures, a lot of green is now starting to show up in the fields. Predominantly, these are many of our winter annual weed species. And it's always a good idea for folks to try to get all vegetation under control before anything is planted in that field. We always can say, you know, our intention is we're going to plant, we'll take care of controlling the weeds at some point after we plant. But as we typically relearn every year and that is that the weather really controls what we're able to do.

Aaron Hager: 10:01

And so those established weeds can actually be fairly competitive with an emerging corn crop or an emerging soybean crop. Trying to get weeds managed before we put any seed in the ground is always a very, very good first step.

Todd Gleason: 10:14

To that end, Hager says the utility of a pre emergence herbicide has increased over time as weeds like waterhemp have developed resistance.

Aaron Hager: 10:22

We went through an era, of course, back in the late 1990s as the glyphosate resistant technology came into the marketplace where we really moved away from utilizing residual herbicides. But given the resistance issues that we now face, predominantly with our waterhemp populations in the state, it's really of paramount importance that we use a good foundation herbicide program close to planting time in order to try to reduce the number of, whether, again, it's giant ragweed or waterhemp plants that we'll have to try to control in the postemergence application.

Todd Gleason: 10:56

Glyphosate resistance is one of the biggest issues, and Hager says it is the application rate that really matters.

Aaron Hager: 11:04

Application rate is really gonna depend on a couple of things. Number one, of course, the spectrum of weeds that you have. Number two, what is the size of those weeds? And then thirdly, what is the particular glyphosate formulation that you're using? So most every herbicide label, especially the ones for the foliar applied products will have weed sizes on the label.

Aaron Hager: 11:22

They'll list the species they control and then typically the maximum growth stage at which they can still remain effective. So as we always say, the best information is gonna be to read the label.

Todd Gleason: 11:31

Hager's been very concerned for the better part of his career about the herbicide resistance within the field crops weed populations. Now farmers have had some not so nice surprises in recent seasons, and the University of Illinois weed scientist expects he'll be getting some calls about nasty issues again this year.

Aaron Hager: 11:50

Well, we're fixing to find out how it works out. It's it's hard to sit here at this time of year and make a lot of accurate predictions. We can do a lot of guessing, but we'll we'll have to look back about next September, not October, see how close we actually were.

Todd Gleason: 12:01

You may read more about herbicide resistance and University of Illinois weed science control recommendations in the online agronomy handbook. Search Google for Agronomy Handbook and look for the Illinois Extension link. We're now joined by Travis Mateer. He is a beef cattle specialist with the University of Illinois, an extension educator. Thank you, Travis, for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 12:42

You've written for the Cattle Connection blog an article about including cross spreads, actually cross breeding, within your herd. And the title was interesting, Cue the Crossbreeding. I'm wondering exactly what that means as it's related to the generally small herd sizes that are in the state of Illinois.

Travis Meteer: 13:04

Yeah. I think, the purpose of the article was to highlight the advantages of cross breeding. And really, I just stumbled upon an old ad of hybrid seed corn, and that showed two inbred parents on the outside and in the middle was that hybrid ear of seed corn. It was substantially bigger, higher yielding, and obviously a more profitable genetic component. And I thought, man, that's not a new message.

Travis Meteer: 13:33

But in the beef cattle industry, we've had a huge shift in the last couple of decades towards just predominantly black hided cattle. And there's nothing wrong with that. We've developed, I think, some really sustainable genetics there, really popular, and genetics that have really been geared towards meeting the meat quality standards that our beef snob type consumers really like. Now, as far as cow calf profitability and profitability as an industry, think about, okay, look at that hybrid seed corn, look at our neighbors in the pork and poultry industry and see how they have maternal and terminal lines and they're using cross breeding at a high level. And now I think the impact that we see of the beef on dairy cross as the percentage of those cattle continue to increase and and really replace a high percentage of straight bred Holsteins on the cattle on feed components coming from the dairy industry.

Travis Meteer: 14:34

And it just got me thinking, need to talk more about crossbreeding for our small beef cow calf producers. It's easy to always just have one bull, same breed, breeding the same cattle, but we're giving up some advantages there by not including crossbreeding.

Todd Gleason: 14:48

So you'll be ruffling some feathers out there at this point because there are folks who are like, well, I like my shorthorns or I like my Angus or Sematol or whatever it happens to be. What are the, advantages of having this genetic diversity?

Travis Meteer: 15:05

Yeah. And so I guess we still need purebred producers. Right? We need to produce those those lines, those purebred lines. But on the commercial side and in our commercial industry, I think we need a higher level of cross breeding occurring.

Travis Meteer: 15:20

And so my emphasis is for if you're a commercial producer, if you're a small cow calf producer that sells feeder calves at the sale barn at weaning and you're not saving and retaining these genetics for a purebred market, there's opportunity to be had by crossbreeding. The traits that are lowly heritable and hard to improve like calf survivability, like cow longevity and cow fertility, those traits are actually the most economically improved by crossbreeding. And so some of those hard things that we we're trying our best to do on the farm, we could simply do by choosing another good bull in a different breed and crossbreeding. And so that's the emphasis there. Let's utilize good cattle, you know, in each breed, pick the good ones and breed them and cross breed them.

Todd Gleason: 16:12

You know, but because they are small herds, they may say to themselves, but I don't have the money to spend on that kind of genetics on a bull. And certainly, don't have the money to keep trading that bull through for improved genetics across the board. What do they do?

Travis Meteer: 16:27

Yeah. I think that's a common thought, but I I would ask those producers to look back at their own history and say, okay. Well, how often do you trade a bull? And and I think they would see that it's fairly often that they are trading in because those small herds also keep replacements many times. And a lot of times they're culling bulls just because they're keeping daughters of that bull that's there in herd.

Travis Meteer: 16:46

And so they're probably having turnover anyways. And one thing to think about if you are a small herd and you want to keep some continuity to your breeds, can use composite bulls. So there are breeds that have been crossed and you could, for instance, use like a Simmental Angus cross bull on, maybe some crossbred cows, you're getting a level of hybrid vigor, from those different composites. So I I my personal favorite is the Hereford Angus black baldy cow, and let's put a composite bull on those black baldy cows. And then, man, we're really we're really shooting on all all all cylinders or firing on all cylinders when it comes to crossbreeding.

Todd Gleason: 17:29

Thank you much. I appreciate it, Travis. Absolutely, Todd. Anytime. Travis Mathier is an Extension educator with the University of Illinois.

Todd Gleason: 17:35

You're listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois. Public media, public radio for the farming world. Find us online. Listen to us on demand where? At WILLAG.org.

Todd Gleason: 17:46

And there you can read this article. It is currently on the top of the list at WILLAG.org. Let's turn our attention now to the global growing regions. Mike Tanura is here. He's the president and CEO of t storm weather.

Todd Gleason: 18:13

That's tstorm.net online. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us today.

Mike Tannura: 18:18

Hey. Thanks for having me, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 18:19

Let's begin in South America. Do they have rains in the offing?

Mike Tannura: 18:24

Well, they do. That second corn crop in Brazil has been really dry over the last thirty to forty days. Our data suggests that it was one of the driest, if not the driest, of the last twenty to thirty years for that crop. So they need rain. Now there has been some since Monday, and we think there will be more going forward.

Mike Tannura: 18:43

A few cool fronts will move northward, and that will trigger some thunderstorms in different areas. But our concern is that the best rainfall will probably be just to the north of corn areas as the quasi monsoon season focuses in that region. And then also a little bit to the south of the key corn areas where the main storm track aligns. So as we move forward, there will be better rains going forward, but will this totally end the dryness story? Probably not.

Mike Tannura: 19:08

We'll still need to see some pretty good rain starting around April again.

Todd Gleason: 19:12

Can you update us on the Argentine weather forecast too, please?

Mike Tannura: 19:15

Well, they're going to turn a lot wetter over the next few days. There's a cool front that's going to move through there as well, and that'll produce significant totals. Now they were very wet a few weeks ago, then it dried out for two weeks. Rains have returned over the last few days, they're going to keep on going. But after we get through this wet period, it turns real cool and it stays real dry for at least five to ten days so that we'll start to improve conditions for harvesting.

Todd Gleason: 19:38

Here in The United States, Farmers are beginning to scratch the earth even in the Midwest, but, those to the south of us are the ones that really start, this early in the spring. What are conditions like for them?

Mike Tannura: 19:50

Well, if you look at Texas, it's been fine. They're planting corn, and it's been pretty dry. So progress is moving forward pretty nicely. Our concern, though, is what's happening elsewhere. A lot of storm systems are going to move across the Central US over the next two weeks, and that's gonna turn a wide area a lot wetter.

Mike Tannura: 20:07

Some of the best rains are going to be in the Eastern Corn Belt and in the Mid South, and that Mid South region is the one that needs to be watched. That is where they start to plant corn and soybeans first. And even though it's a little early here in March to be thinking too hard about it, you know, we're seeing signals at two to four inches, maybe even five or six inches of rain is possible over the next couple of weeks. And it's not just that one area might receive that much rain, it's that a wide area is going to see all of this rain. And that's when you start to run into problems because it's a big volume of water and that big volume needs to get through the river system and get out to the ocean before things start to dry out.

Mike Tannura: 20:43

So this is going to be turning a lot wetter through the April in these areas, and we'll have to see what happens after that because it's gonna be at least a wet beginning to the early part of the growing season.

Todd Gleason: 20:54

And about across Iowa, the Dakotas, and to the Eastern Part of the Corn Belt?

Mike Tannura: 21:00

Well, they're certainly going to get some decent rains as well, but the main focus is going to be further to the east. We think that Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and then point south through parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Those are the main states that are going to have some heavy totals. But the other areas you're asking about are still going to get some good rains, but it might just not be that unusual from a historical standpoint.

Todd Gleason: 21:24

In Eastern Europe, the Black Sea area, how are the conditions for crops that are in the ground, wheat that is, in Russia and Ukraine?

Mike Tannura: 21:33

Well, they're very dry. The coverage of dryness on these crops is among the highest of the last five to ten years, and we need to see rains as we move forward. Now we have seen a little bit this week, and it's kind of the same story that we're seeing in Brazil. The rains are scattered around these different areas, they're going to continue for the next week or two. And so we think conditions are going to improve in at least Russia where some of the better rains are coming up.

Mike Tannura: 21:57

As you move westward into Ukraine, the setup isn't quite as good, but they'll still see some rain. But then as you move further west, and now we're in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia stretching westward into parts of Hungary, this is a key corn and wheat area, and they're going to see some heavy rain. So it's going to be improving there as well. And this is just going to essentially allow us for more time to figure out how their growing season is going to go because this will get us through the next couple of weeks, and then we can wait and see what's going to happen in mid April.

Todd Gleason: 22:27

K. Thank you much.

Mike Tannura: 22:28

Yeah. Thanks for having me, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 22:29

Mike Tenures with t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online and joined us on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to hear us at willag.org, I l l a n g 0 r g. There you'll find our daily agricultural programming, the updated numbers from the USDA when reports are released along with ways to subscribe to our podcast, and information from the Agricultural Economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason.

Todd Gleason: 23:07

You have a good afternoon.