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Closing in on 2018 Gross Revenue Estimates for Corn and Soybeans

    Gary Schnitkey
    Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics -University of Illinois
    Recently released yield estimates and the announcement of Market Facilitation Program details allows for more accurate estimates of 2018 gross revenue for corn and soybeans. Gross revenue in 2018 could be near 2017 levels as long as 1) yields are exceptional and 2) some pre-harvest hedging occurred before May. Those farmers with lower yields or no hedging could have 2018 gross revenues well below 2017 levels. At this point, projections of 2019 gross revenue projections will be below 2018 levels.

    Revenues will be projected for high-productivity farmland in central Illinois. These 2018 projections will be compared to previous average gross revenues for farms enrolled in Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM). Table 1 shows the components of gross revenue projections, including crop revenue, Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments, ARC/PLC payments, and crop insurance. Projections are made for both corn and soybeans with both stated on a per acre basis.

    Yields are projected at the highest level ever in 2018: 233 bushels per acre for corn and 70 bushels per acre for soybeans (see Table 1). For corn, the previous high was 231 bushels per acre occurring in 2014. The previous high for soybeans was 69 bushels per acre occurring in 2018 (for historical yields see Revenue and Costs for Illinois Crops). Note that these are average. There will be many farms with much higher yields. It is likely that some field averages on corn will approach 300 bushels per acre. Moreover, there will be areas with much lower yields. Several areas have been very dry, resulting in low yield estimates, and much lower revenue projections than given here.

    See the FULL article with tables and charts HERE.

    Source: Schnitkey, G. "Closing in on 2018 Gross Revenue Estimates for Corn and Soybeans." farmdoc daily (8):169, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 11, 2018. Permalink