Apr 06 | Closing Market Report

cmr260406

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the sixth day of April 2026. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel. He's at AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Ed Usset, agricultural economist from the University of Minnesota, will join us for our monthly conversation about the fundamentals of the marketplace and a broader picture of marketing corn, soybeans, and wheat as well. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We'll do that with Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics. He'll update the weekend rainfall across the Corn Belt, what we can expect in the month of April, and take a look into the end of the growing season in South America—Argentina and Brazil—and still the mid-season portion of the safrinha, or second crop corn, all on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at WILLag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy by Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

[Music]

Todd Gleason: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.54. It was up a penny and three-quarters. July at $4.65 and a quarter, two higher. And December at $4.83, up one and three-quarters of a cent. May soybeans, three and a quarter higher at $11.66 and three-quarters. July, $11.83 and a quarter, up three and a quarter. November at $11.57. It finished three higher for the day. Bean meal futures at $316.60, $1.40 higher. The bean oil at $69.95. It finished up a buck and a penny. Wheat futures: soft red at $5.92 and a half, down three for the May. July at $6.06 and a half, three lower. The deferreds again in the soft red, the hard red in the July at $6.23 and three-quarters, down seven and a quarter cents. Live cattle futures at $247.025, up 70 cents. Feeder cattle at $370.35, 27 and a half lower. And the lean hogs at $107.70, up $3.22 and a half cents. Crude oil today: West Texas, that's the WTI, at $112.81 a barrel, up $1.27. And the Brent at $110.15 a barrel, $1.12 higher. Diesel fuel or heating oil, a penny and four-tenths higher at $4.37 and a half. And gasoline on the wholesale price at $3.30 and eight-tenths of a cent, a penny and eight-tenths of a cent higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up about 230 points at this hour, and the S&P 500 around 42 points higher.

02:58 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel

Todd Gleason: Now here to discuss this is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Hi Curt, thank you for being with us again on a Monday.

Curt Kimmel: You're quite welcome. We're starting to get into the exciting time of the year here, so hopefully we'll continue to see some news here to give the market a little support.

Todd Gleason: It was a quiet day, while exciting as we get to the beginning of the planting season. At the CME Group, narrow trade, tell me about it.

Curt Kimmel: Extremely quiet for a Monday, Easter Monday. Some of the world markets were closed, but we're coming out of a three-day weekend. And for corn to finish one to two higher, and beans three, and wheat down a little easier, just a lack of interest. I don't know if it's the calm before the storm, but for the most part, we'll start the marketing year here with the weekly crop conditions report here this afternoon. We'll get our first conditions report on wheat as far as a nation all at once here. We're expecting anywhere from 38 to 45% of the wheat crop good to excellent. The average trade guess is 42. A year ago we were at 48%. The significance of the wheat is they've been extremely dry out west. There was some rain that materialized in the eastern part of that dry region, so it's not going to probably be in time to show some updates on this report, but they'll be watching the next report. And that's why wheat finished a little soft today on promises of moisture.

Todd Gleason: This afternoon too, we'll see corn planting progress, mainly the southern states. We'll see how far along Texas, Louisiana, and the Delta is. They're expecting as a nation 2% planted. That ranges anywhere from 2 to 4% complete. A year ago we were at 2%. And then also, as far as progress goes, spring wheat seeding is expected to be about 2% complete, and that ranges one to four, 3% last year. So planting progress is basically just starting as we move forward here. We'll be delayed just a little bit in some areas. I know here locally, I dumped out close to four inches of rain over the whole process there over the last week. That moisture was well welcomed. A few puddles around, but no real big ponds.

Todd Gleason: Indeed. The other thing that we need to talk about at least today as it concerns USDA is the Thursday this week at 11 a.m. WASDE or World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report. Any expectations there of big changes? I suspect not, but you tell me.

Curt Kimmel: The AgMarket team put together their estimates, and they got the corn stocks at 2.127. Just about 25 million bushels less than the market estimate. Just looking at this corn demand, continuing to be relatively strong when you look at the sales. Sales continue to be strong. Shipments continue to be strong, and so therefore just a little bit of a tighter estimate there. As far as the bean side of the equation, just the complete opposite. The team's looking at a 365 million bushel carryout versus 350 in March. So we're looking for an additional 15 million bushels. Whether that's a significant amount or not, we'll see. Bean sales have been extremely strong, but too, the crush has been extremely strong, so we'll see how that offsets each category as we go. Any stocks on wheat about unchanged, 931. Probably the more fine-tuned number will be the South American production estimates. There might be some zigging and zagging there. We pretty well look at Argentine numbers being unchanged. Corn 52 million metric tons, soybeans 48 million metric tons. As far as the Brazilian crop, just looking at just a tick higher on the Brazilian corn production number of 133. Brazilian beans 180, left unchanged from last month. But I think the main focus once we get through this report, of course, will be the weather here in the upper Midwest as we move forward.

Todd Gleason: We will follow the weather, of course. I do want you to take a look into the war premiums, and think about what those may or may not mean for new crop sales, old crop too. We are moving into the planting season in the United States. War premiums generally come up front before the market has a time to assess real damage and what it means. Do you think prices can fall away very quickly in the next month?

Curt Kimmel: I think we'll hold in there until we have the crop in the ground and get a couple conditions reports underneath our belt. As far as the energy market goes, it's gone virtually straight up, and it kind of takes the stair steps down, so it'll be a little drawn-out process. But you got to look at the big picture compared to where we were here just a couple months ago. One, we're at 4.83 on December corn, we're above the spring price. But yet when you look at a perfect scenario, I believe the December futures need to migrate down to the 4.20 area before you collect on some of these insurance products, depending which policy you have. So there's some downside risk involved. Also, if we turn the clock back, quite a few of the listeners said, 'Boy, if we ever get close to five bucks, I want to sell,' and we've been banging up against there a few times. So next time up there, might want to take a look at that based to the five dollar level basis December futures. Same thing on the November beans, back up towards $12. The goal is try to improve the selling price, try to do better than break even. So it'd be a time to kind of stay awake here and keep an eye on from the standpoint that if we do get the crop in the ground in a timely fashion, we start to lose some of this so-called war premium there, there is some downside risk.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We'll talk to you again next week.

Curt Kimmel: You bet. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: You too. That's Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net.

09:29 Commodity Market Discussion with Ed Usset

Todd Gleason: We are now joined by Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. He is with extension there as well. Ed, I'd like to take up the war in Iran. There are some numbers out from the farm doc team using a model that Gary Schnitkey has put together over the last decade or so projecting the price of anhydrous ammonia in the state of Illinois and for a good part of the US, I suppose, in the fall of this year for the 2027 corn crop at $860 a ton. Everyone knows that the price of both anhydrous and fertilizer fuel has spiked, commodity prices have spiked as well with the war in Iran. The question is if the price of fertilizer, particularly anhydrous ammonia, is going to stay high into the fall, and they project it could even go higher, does that mean commodity prices will stay high like the price of corn?

Ed Usset: Well, I hate to start our conversation by picking a fight with you, but I hardly call the price of corn spiking over the last three months. They have risen, and we could argue that we've had a strong rally in soybeans. We've had a strong rally in wheat. We've had a bump in corn, hardly a spike. If this keeps up into the fall, and those are breathtaking prices, I got to believe that our tilt towards soybeans, which is going to happen this year on planted acres, it'll continue into next year, into 2027. Not only is anhydrous so important to corn production, but I'm looking at soybean crush margins. And this is breathtaking to me. I don't track crush margins every day like the traders do, I happen to take a snapshot on October 1 of every year looking at November beans and the December meal and December oil, sort of a board crush margin. I calculated it this morning based on November beans, December meal, and oil: $2.43 per bushel. That's the board crushing margin. I've never seen it that high. And we've gone through the last six, seven years of some incredible soybean crush margins. Never seen it over $2 a bushel. Keep in mind, now the crushing margin is not the profitability, that's the gross margin. For 25 years it averaged about 60 cents a bushel. So we're four times the long-term average from 1990 to 2015. That's an incredible margin. You combine that with high anhydrous, which is really a corn issue more than a soybean issue, and the march towards soybeans will continue.

Todd Gleason: I have a question about that because we are so close to capacity in the soybean market, do we have enough capacity being developed to really absorb that many soybean acres?

Ed Usset: I think we do. We've had a lot of plants open up in the last three years. 12 either new plants or massive expansions of existing facilities. That's been in just the last three years. And I believe we have three more plants in the country ready to open before this year is done. So we've had an incredible expansion in soybean crushing capacity, and yeah, we could handle more acres.

Todd Gleason: Okay, what does that tell you about pricing new crop soybeans?

Ed Usset: Well, I've been on that for some time, Todd. I see November beans, somewhere around 11.50, 11.60 a bushel. I know they spiked a little higher a few weeks ago, but for months I've been saying this is on my radar, and we were at $11 a bushel, that impressed me. Well, now we're at 11.50, 11.60, by any measure, I believe in the upper Midwest anyway, that's a profitable number for producers. And so I've been recommending, get something on the books. Get some sales done, forward contract, selling futures, hedge to arrive, however you can do it. The only disappointing thing for me in this current rally, and it's also a red flag for people who are like, well, this thing's going to keep going, basis levels are not very good at all. To me, a fundamentally strong market shows you a strong basis, and we're not seeing it. We're not seeing it in corn. We're not seeing it in soybeans. We're not seeing it in wheat. So that's the red flag which tells me, you got to get something done here.

Todd Gleason: You built this big bullish scenario up front, I thought, but you still want producers to make the new crop sales.

Ed Usset: Oh yes. Yes, I do. And hope like heck you're wrong, Todd. I'm not suggesting this because I know prices will go down, but we always have to remind ourselves. November soybeans, 11.50, 11.60 a bushel right now. Each of the last two years, the November contract has sunk below $10 a bushel. So that's a dollar and a half away or more. I'm not predicting that. I don't want it to happen. But please don't tell me it's not possible. Of course it's possible. And even December corn, hanging around 4.80 a bushel after its big spike up from 4.50, 4.60, but the December contract, new crop contract, it has sunk below $4 a bushel in each of the last two years. So I don't want anyone to look at me and say, well, that can't happen again. Unfortunately, it could.

Todd Gleason: And you're telling producers to sell new crop corn or some of it as well?

Ed Usset: Get something. I would love to see the December contract at the five dollar mark or better, that's 20 cents away. But I'm getting a little too fine there. If you have this dreaded thought that every time I make a sale the market goes up, get together with your neighbors, draw straws. The person with the short straw has to make a new crop sale to get that market to go up, just to make everyone feel good.

Todd Gleason: I think that kind of gambling farmers might love. Thank you very much.

Ed Usset: Yeah.

Todd Gleason: We'll talk with you again soon enough. We appreciate it. That's Ed Usset, of course. He is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota and with extension.

17:02 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura

Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the growing regions across the planet. We're now joined by Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi Mark, thanks for being with us. Let's start here in the Corn Belt. Tell me about the rainfall we've had, what conditions are like in the primary growing areas.

Mark Russo: Well Todd, over the weekend we did see widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Corn Belt and even down into the Delta. And that was actually needed to further boost soil moisture across the region. So we've had a good week to ten days of more active conditions across the Midwest Corn Belt which has boosted soil moisture. And that is very good timing with planting now beginning to ramp up. From a soil moisture standpoint, most areas, especially topsoil moisture, overall conditions are in pretty good shape. And along with that too, we have seen an increase in soil temperatures up to levels favorable for planting across much of the southern half or so of the Midwest. Northern Midwest is still a little bit on the cool side with recent cool air that's moved in, but nothing that's anomalously cold or concerning in terms of soil temperatures here for early April.

Todd Gleason: Anything that you're looking forward to across the Corn Belt itself that is concerning or very good?

Mark Russo: Looking ahead here, we see a generally seasonal pattern, both from a rainfall and from a temperature standpoint as well. It's not going to be as active across the Midwest compared to what it has been. In fact, this week activity is on the more scattered side. Next week that does pick up a little bit, but we're not seeing any kind of wet patterns that would be concerning to really bog down the start of planting. And also on the flip side, we're not seeing anything that's totally open that would allow for a really rapid start. So overall it looks like a pretty seasonal pattern here that should result in a very steady planting pace here coming up.

Todd Gleason: Through late last week, the hard red winter wheat growing regions of Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, parts of Texas were of great concern. Are they still?

Mark Russo: They are. And looking ahead here, we don't see any major or widespread rain events that would really solve the dryness issues and bring major relief to the Plains hard red belt. There will be some opportunities for rain, and especially coming up late this week, Thursday, Friday, even carrying into the weekend. That is going to be a prime window of opportunity for some rains in portions of the bigger producing acreage, like central Kansas or even out into western Kansas. But having said that, it's one of these situations where the further west you go, the lower the probabilities of meaningful rain. The further east you go, the higher probabilities. So that kind of key acreage that's right in the middle, they have some chances, but there's still some debate just how much improvement will be taking place.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to South America and the crops that are still in the ground and waiting to be harvested there.

Mark Russo: Yeah, from a harvest standpoint across Brazil and Argentina, the pattern is turning a little more active here at this later stage of the rainy season. So it could begin to slow down harvest progress a little bit more compared to recent weeks. We've seen at least in Argentina, the corn harvest is ahead of schedule and sunseed just a few percentages behind the five-year normal. But going forward, things are going to be a little bit slower because there's been a bit more rain added to the forecast or to the pattern here over the next couple of weeks. Brazil also will see some periodic rain, so for later soybean harvesting, a few minor delays, we're still not seeing anything overly excessive from a wetness standpoint or seeing any big problems at the ports here coming up. But you can't rule out a few localized issues there. And then just for their Brazil safrinha crop, again which has been planted and is growing and really needs rain here at this later stage of the rainy season to just carry them through critical stages of growth here. This rainier pattern is extremely beneficial, with normal to above normal rainfall. So right now, the Brazil safrinha crop looks very, very good. And no sign of that changing here really in the month of April.

Todd Gleason: We'll talk with you again next week. Thank you very much, Todd.

Mark Russo: You're welcome.

Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics and joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. That came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at WILLag.org or you may search it out in your favorite podcast application, just look for the Closing Market Report in places like Apple, YouTube, Spotify, and even the NPR One app. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.