Apr 07 | Closing Market Report

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 7th day of April 2026. I'm U of I Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Gerald Mashange will join us, agricultural economist here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I, to discuss what he calls the escalation trap as it's related to Iran and the price of fertilizers and energies as well. Then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast as we close out our time together. Don Day will join us from DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at willag.org.

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. In Chicago, corn futures finished about 5 lower across the board. Soybeans were down 6 to 8 cents. Wheat futures in the soft red were up a penny or two, and the hard red just about unchanged on the day. Live cattle futures were down a buck and 20 cents, feeders were off 3.72. Lean hogs 65 cents lower, and the price of crude oil on the Brent at $109.75, unchanged at this hour, and WTI up 43 cents.

01:30 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm

Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us. Hi, Naomi. Thank you for being with us on this Tuesday. I appreciate it.

Naomi Blohm: Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Let's turn your attention directly to the marketplace. Tell me about the sell-off that we've had and what precipitated it.

Naomi Blohm: Today it feels more like position squaring ahead of the deadline tonight with Iran. It feels like some traders are just moving to the sidelines, not sure of what potentially may happen and just wanting to take some risk off the table. Corn, soybeans, wheat, everything today tested and is holding an uptrend support line that has been established since late January. We're going to just wait and tune into whatever transpires tonight. As you know, we're keeping an eye on crude oil prices. Crude oil prices today got up to $117.63 for a high. $120 is significant resistance on a monthly chart. If you connect the dots from the highs on a monthly chart, you're talking about a high price that was established back in 2008 when the market was near $140, and then the next high price came back in 2022 after the Ukraine-Russia conflict when crude oil prices got up near $125 to $130. Now on that trend line, $120 is resistance. That is what we're all watching tonight for what happens with Iran and what then transpires with crude oil. If we go through $120 resistance on crude oil, likely the grain markets will follow higher. If by chance there is some sort of an extension to this deadline or if there's a way they can have some peace amongst this, crude oil prices would edge lower, grain prices then probably drift sideways to lower until we get to Thursday's WASDE report.

Todd Gleason: Today and yesterday, have you spent time with your clientele trying to get them out of the marketplace ahead of this issue? What kinds of things do you as a broker have to think about as it's related to the positions your clients have?

Naomi Blohm: We're having very realistic conversations. This is either as good as it's going to get for your marketing prices if there's no dramatic upheaval in the crude oil area. We are still fundamentally for the grain markets dealing with large supplies here in the United States in terms of old crop. So far, it's too early to talk about any potential lower crop for new crop; we just have to get the crop in the ground first. We're having strategies about protecting value that's there. We're also having conversations about what if this marketplace goes blasting higher? Should we be looking at any call option strategies? We're having conversations about having a balanced approach and a realistic understanding that we can't control this. We don't know what's going to happen, so you have to be ready for either scenario to occur.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to the world agricultural supply and demand estimates. Those come out on Thursday of this week. What are you thinking about?

Naomi Blohm: Usually, the April report does not have a lot of big, fresh news on it. The report will still be focused on old crop. We're not looking for any big changes to demand. We'll see if there's any adjustments to the crops in Brazil or Argentina for corn and soybeans. Then we'll go back to trading and watching weather, back to conversations of planting progress, and of course, we'll be watching the outside market influences like crude oil.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to South America and the crops there. Again, you suggested there might be some changes. Will those get bigger, do you suppose?

Naomi Blohm: I don't think they're going to make any adjustments for that South American crop getting a lot larger. The question now would be portions of Brazil getting a touch drier, but to me, it feels maybe a little too soon for the USDA to do any bigger adjustments in South America. Likely they'll want to leave it until May or June as more of that crop is fully known as far as production down there. I'm not expecting a lot out of the report Wednesday. I don't think trade is really either; that's reflected in some of the pre-report estimates. If there is anything big in that report, traders will be able to freely respond to it, whether the news is bullish or bearish. But again, in the short term, the Iran conflict has a bigger place on the front burner of the markets right now. That's probably more important in the short term than potentially what this WASDE report would say Thursday.

Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, the hard red winter wheat for the United States crop has been approaching dire straits as it relates to the weather. Is there concern in the marketplace still about it, and has it been incorporating more rainfall?

Naomi Blohm: It's a mixed answer. I think for the winter wheat, that market in general is staying supported at higher levels to acknowledge the dire situation of the drought in the plains and what that could mean for the winter wheat crop. We are about 30 to 35 cents off the recent highs to acknowledge some of the recent precipitation that has gone through there, and we're still holding an uptrend line in general. For the winter wheat market, we'll be keeping an eye on the weather, keeping an eye on future crop progress reports that show how the quality is. If we do have a crop that is in a dire situation because of the drought, and if production is lowered significantly, that would not be priced into the marketplace yet, especially with as low as the wheat acres are in the United States. It could be something that could really wake up the market down the road, but for now, we're in this holding pattern for the short term.

Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Naomi.

Naomi Blohm: Thank you.

Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com.

07:53 WILLAg News Update

Todd Gleason: Just a couple of quick news items for the day. First, John Deere is maximizing customer uptime, it says, in a way that complies with two recent updates from the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA issued repair guidance that allows temporary overrides of certain emission control systems to give farmers more flexibility to get their equipment running again when something goes wrong, especially during critical times like planting and harvesting. Denver Caldwell, Vice President of the Aftermarket and Customer Support System, says the change was in response to Deere's request to offer the capability through the company's new self-repair tool called John Deere's Operation Center Pro Service. Caldwell says Deere is also taking action in response to additional diesel exhaust fluid, or DEF, guidance from EPA. EPA now allows manufacturers like John Deere to increase the amount of time that an owner has to resolve those issues prior to triggering some of those derates, some of those problems that customers really don't like. We're actively in the process of delivering the software updates to both new machines and those in the field that will extend that window of time per EPA allowance before that machine derates, and it will allow our customers to remain in the field to the end of the day or maybe even the end of the season depending on where they are in their overall progress. For more information on the resources and tools John Deere offers to enable farmers to diagnose, maintain, and repair their own equipment, you may visit deere.com/repair.

Here on campus, the Agricultural and Biological Engineering graduate program, or ABE, at the University of Illinois is once again ranked number four in the nation by US News and World Report, with its undergraduate program ranked number two. Illinois is among the top programs in the country as part of a campus known for its strength in engineering, agriculture, and data science. ABE students engage with leading research institutes and facilities that bring together experts from across all fields. And that's a look at today's agricultural news.

10:15 The Escalation Trap | war spikes prices, damage sustains them

Todd Gleason: I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We're now joined by Gerald Mashange. He is a member of the farmdoc team and agricultural economist based on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois and has written a couple of articles for the farmdoc website. Today we're going to deal with one about the Strait of Hormuz. It was released on the 27th day of March, that was a Friday. Thank you, Gerald, for being with us. Take a look back at how the lessons we might have learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine can be deployed currently with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. What are the differences and those things that are similar in your opinion?

Gerald Mashange: Thanks, Todd. What Europe actually discovered and learned was that they had a lot of exposure to the Russian oil and gas market. When the war broke out in February 2022, Europe really felt that impact, particularly when the Nord Stream pipelines were also destroyed. Obviously, there was a price shock when it came to the energy markets. What Europe eventually did was divest away from Russia and build up their own domestic capacity to take on new supply from alternative sources. It took quite some time, quite a few years, but they managed to pull away from that exposure they previously had with Russia. What we have now today is with this conflict in the Gulf, many countries and the world are realizing how exposed we are to the natural gas, oil, and fertilizer market from that region. With this particular conflict, what we're realizing is that it really is appearing to become an escalation trap. The idea really is that from the United States' perspective, President Trump is just looking for an off-ramp, just trying to find a way to say, I have definitely won this conflict and I am going to step away. But if there is no credibility to that statement, this conflict is going to go on. I'm sure now you've seen a lot of media announcements from the president and only for the Iranians to say that this is not true. As long as this continues, we might see continued escalation, and this will probably drive up prices even higher, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

Todd Gleason: If that is to be the case, what are the issues that need to be tackled? And I suppose even if it were to be settled, there are issues, for instance, infrastructure damage that has been done or will be done in the next several weeks.

Gerald Mashange: Primarily, when it comes to the energy markets, what you're seeing is with these continued attacks, a lot of infrastructure is being damaged, and that's going to be impacting production. Then you also have the issue of flow. All the ships that have to pass through the strait, they're pretty much stuck, so there's a lot of disruption. Iran is saying that certain countries are allowed to pass but they have to satisfy certain conditions, and obviously, there is going to be a reaction from the world to those announcements. But when it comes to how fast we can recover from this, a lot of reports are suggesting that it could take weeks, months, and even years in some instances just because of how much damage some of the infrastructure across the Gulf has been impacted by. When it comes to shipping, you have to understand that if the ships start moving today, they wouldn't just arrive at our coasts instantly; they'd take quite a few days to do so. We really have this blockage when it comes to the flow of critical inputs and commodities, particularly natural gas, oil, and fertilizer. When it comes to the fertilizer market, particularly looking at urea, people may ask why this small region is having such a sizable impact on the fertilizer market. 80% of ammonia production is derived from nitrogen, so nitrogen gas is quite an important feedstock in making fertilizer. This is why this is particularly important. In addition to a question one might have is why is Asia being impacted so much harder than other regions, it's just how much of that trade it takes on from the Gulf. You can imagine how, although this is a localized event, many corners of the world are being impacted by this conflict.

Todd Gleason: If I remember the percentages correctly, the damage that was done to the LNG facilities that were attacked by Iran amounted to about 17% of production. Will this have an impact for three to five years? How much of an issue does that become for the global supply of LNG and all kinds of sources?

Gerald Mashange: I think it's going to be a major issue. You're already hearing reports of some countries now tapping into strategic reserves. You're seeing more exposed countries also potentially facing disruptions. For example, in some countries, you're seeing gas or petrol prices rise exorbitantly because they may not necessarily have alternative sources to import from. However, on the continent of Africa, you're seeing an opportunity for the recently built refining facilities built in Nigeria, so they are starting to address the issues many countries are facing. But the question really is, will that be enough? What we don't want to see is for this conflict to continue to drag out because again, what's becoming very apparent is that the conflict is very asymmetric. Although the full might and force of the United States is being shown, what Iran seems to be doing is waging an economic conflict. Recently they announced that they'll be attacking US businesses, so companies like Amazon, JP Morgan, etc. This is rather concerning and it just goes to show that this conflict won't just be resolved with munitions and kinetic warfare. It looks as if Iran is also willing to wage conflict on multiple fronts as well. This has obvious massive implications for us, whether it's agriculture, transportation, or just any product or service being consumed.

Todd Gleason: Have you thought about how long it will take for crude oil, LNG, or fertilizers—because they all have different elasticities—for demand destruction to take place around the planet, such that we will be producing less crops from the fertilizer or people will be spending money on other things and have less to spend on food?

Gerald Mashange: I'm not necessarily so sure about how that will work right now, but what I have been able to find and read on is that this is likely going to incentivize many countries to invest further into alternative sources of energy, particularly green and clean energy. This is exactly what Europe did. In addition to pivoting away from Russia, they did continue to take on natural gas imports from countries like Qatar, but they invested heavily into clean energy as well. You're likely going to see a lot more of that, particularly in countries that have been impacted quite a lot by this conflict. In terms of just how long it's going to take for prices to come back to what we were familiar with in recent months, I'm not necessarily sure. Again, we could be at the beginning of this conflict, and this could continue to escalate, and we could continue to see higher prices. At the same time, we don't know how much worse this conflict can get as well. We know that the president has suggested that they may be putting ground troops in Iran and in the region, but again, we don't necessarily know if that's going to play out or if it's more of a negotiating tactic. The goal is for this conflict to come to an end, but if Iran is not interested in negotiating, this may be very troubling for at least the next couple of weeks.

Todd Gleason: Gerald, thank you much.

Gerald Mashange: You're welcome. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Gerald Mashange is an agricultural economist, a member of the farmdoc team right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You're listening to the closing market report on this Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

19:54 Ag Weather with Don Day

Todd Gleason: Let's check the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Don Day is here. He's with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Thanks, Don, for being with us again. I think we've got quite a few things to talk about. Let's first begin out West in the Corn Belt. Maybe in the Southern Plains, too, because both of those are in need of rainfall. Will they get some in the coming week?

Don Day: Yeah, it's going to start this weekend in those Southern Plains areas, in that wheat area we just mentioned. We're going to see some shower and thunderstorm activity. As the Pacific system sounds out a couple of systems, we'll see a wave of showers and thunderstorms develop this weekend and spread north and east into the southwestern areas of the Corn Belt. Then by the weekend and the latter parts of next week, we're going to see another system come out of the West that should spread a generous amount of rain over a pretty large area of real estate that's going to trend from a line from the southwest to the northeast from Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas through Missouri and Iowa into the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. We could see rainfall amounts in some locations upwards of one to three inches in some of those areas.

Todd Gleason: Notably, you missed Nebraska. I think that's an issue, possibly in South Dakota. Are they looking at any rainfall at all?

Don Day: The central and eastern portions of Nebraska have a good chance of getting into that western edge of that precipitation shield. That would include all of Iowa and extreme southeastern areas of South Dakota. Where the Dakotas get drier will be in the central and eastern counties of those states, but right along the river valley there is kind of the dividing line. West of the river, you're going to have less, more to the east.