Episode Number
10332
Episode Show Notes / Description
- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Use 10oz of Metribuzin on Waterhemp
- FAPRI Cautions RVO Soybean Push
- Use 10oz of Metribuzin on Waterhemp
- FAPRI Cautions RVO Soybean Push
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
The April 20, 2026, Closing Market Report covers several key agricultural updates, beginning with analyst Curt Kimmel noting fluctuating grain markets influenced by adverse weather in the wheat belt and ongoing spring planting progress. Ben Brown from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) discusses their 10-year agricultural outlook, highlighting a persistent financial gap between the crop and livestock sectors. He also warns that subtle biofuel policy details regarding international feedstocks could unexpectedly weaken domestic soybean oil demand before 2028. Meteorologist Mark Russo reports that recent cold snaps likely caused minimal widespread damage to winter wheat and forecasts a drier, warming trend favorable for Midwest planting, though he notes growing concerns over dry conditions for Brazil's safrinha corn crop. Finally, the broadcast briefly highlights research recommending a specific 10-ounce application rate of Metribuzin to control herbicide-resistant waterhemp.
The April 20, 2026, Closing Market Report covers several key agricultural updates, beginning with analyst Curt Kimmel noting fluctuating grain markets influenced by adverse weather in the wheat belt and ongoing spring planting progress. Ben Brown from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) discusses their 10-year agricultural outlook, highlighting a persistent financial gap between the crop and livestock sectors. He also warns that subtle biofuel policy details regarding international feedstocks could unexpectedly weaken domestic soybean oil demand before 2028. Meteorologist Mark Russo reports that recent cold snaps likely caused minimal widespread damage to winter wheat and forecasts a drier, warming trend favorable for Midwest planting, though he notes growing concerns over dry conditions for Brazil's safrinha corn crop. Finally, the broadcast briefly highlights research recommending a specific 10-ounce application rate of Metribuzin to control herbicide-resistant waterhemp.
Transcript
cmr260420
Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 20th day of April, 2026. It's the beginning of our spring fund drive. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. First, thank you so very much for listening. Secondly, it is because of you that we are still here talking about agriculture on Illinois Public Media. Finally, we still need your help. If you can make a gift today, a financial contribution, it would be fantastic. You can do that in two ways. It's simple, quick, and easy. Call 217-244-9455 for Visa, MasterCard, Discover, or American Express. Tell us you're going to send a check, but call now: 217-244-9455. Or online at willgive.org. In either case, put in the comment section or tell the person you're talking to "in support of agriculture." Coming up, we'll talk today about the markets with Curt Kimmel. We'll hear from FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, about its 10-year outlook for agriculture, and we'll discuss Metribuzin, a way to control waterhemp. We'll also look at the agricultural weather forecast with Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
Todd Gleason: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.52, up 3 and 1/4. July $4.60 and 1/4, up 2 and 3/4. December futures up 2 and 1/2 cents at $4.79 and 1/2. May soybeans $11.65 and 3/4, down a penny and a half. July down 1 and 1/4 at $11.81 and 3/4. New crop November soybeans $11.57 and 3/4, up 1 and 1/4. Bean meal futures down $6.70. Bean oil for the day up $1.47. Wheat futures: soft red up 6 and 3/4, July contract, the harvest month, at $6.06. Hard red July at $6.47 and 1/2, down 2 and 1/2 cents. Live cattle futures down $1.27 and 1/2. Feeders down $4.32 and 1/2. Lean hogs up 67 and 1/2 cents for the day. Crude oil in the WTI at $87.08 a barrel, up $4.50. Brent crude oil also $4 higher, up $4.74 at $95.12. Gasoline around 10 cents higher for the day at $3.03 a gallon. We are now joined by Curt Kimmel. He's at AgMarket.net in Normal, Illinois. Curt, thank you first for being a long-term analyst with Illinois Public Media. We sure do appreciate it because of you, our programming really works. We also want to thank our listeners during this beginning of our fall fund drive, because they do a great job of supporting our program. Thank you, Curt.
02:45 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel
Curt Kimmel: You're quite welcome. It's well worth being a part of it, and also listening and learning. Call it the information center, Todd. You provide a lot of good analysts with a lot of information, and eliminate some of that fake news we've been hearing over the years. Appreciate it, thank you.
Todd Gleason: Thank you. For those who think it's worthwhile, and I hope you do, please make a pledge at 217-244-9455 or at willgive.org. What took place over the weekend that was in the news and impacted the trade in Chicago today and overnight?
Curt Kimmel: I saw a meme on Twitter that says "straight close, straight open, straight close, straight open." It's opening and closing, I don't know if anybody knows anymore. It's like looking into the refrigerator to see if the light is on or not. I think the trade is getting kind of numb to it, particularly in the grains. Energies are a little higher, of course. Just reading between the lines and going with the flow, the reaction out of Washington is mild. I don't know if they are up to something mid-week, but that's what we're subject to: headline news. Basically, the grains were firmer on higher energy overnight. Wheat was firm overnight. That western wheat belt continues to see adverse weather: dryness and cold weather. This afternoon's crop conditions report is expected to show the wheat crop deteriorated another 2%. Kansas City wheat closed a little soft today; there's a little more moisture back in the midday forecast, but that will flip-flop back and forth. As a whole, corn had a nice correction off the March highs and is starting to retrace back to the upside, finishing higher on the day on the coattails of the wheat market. This afternoon's planting progress report is expected to show average progress in corn around 9%. Some estimates are 9 to 10%, and soybean planting around 15%. Over the weekend, there were fairly good rains, but going from central Illinois into central Indiana, it's fairly dry in spots. A couple of producers were working ground locally this afternoon for a restart tomorrow. If you go northwest of us, it's pretty wet. A moisture system is moving up to that northwestern corner of Illinois and Wisconsin, so it will be a little while for them. Still early, Todd.
Todd Gleason: I know on Wednesday we'll be watching to see what happens at the end of this "straight open, straight close" regarding the ceasefire with Iran and the war there. What else are you watching that we need to pay attention to?
Curt Kimmel: It'll come down to summer weather, longer-term weather. But short-term demand: we saw the weekly shipments report this morning. We shipped out 1.6 million metric tons of corn. That was about 300,000 tons higher than expected. Bean shipments were 748,000, average guess was 560,000. Wheat shipments a little light. Overall, we're shipping out what we've sold thus far. The main thing as a producer in here is we do get some strength. We're targeting a move back close to the $5 benchmark in December corn, moving towards the upper end of the trading range ($11.80 to $11.90) on November beans to make catch-up sales. A lot of individuals bought crop insurance to use as downside protection, but we still need to market the grain and take advantage of some higher prices here to try to do better than just average. There will be some marketing opportunities here as we move forward.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Curt.
Curt Kimmel: Very good, take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That's Curt Kimmel, he is with AgMarket.net, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report coming to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, and you are the public in public radio. Thank you for listening. Just know it is because of you that we manage to bring you ag programming each and every business day of the year. But we still need your help. It's our spring fund drive. I'd like you to dial in right now with some financial aid. 217-244-9455, or go to willgive.org.
08:32 Use 10oz of Metribuzin on Waterhemp
Todd Gleason: If your soil-applied herbicide doesn't control waterhemp as long as it once did, your populations might be resistant. Perhaps it's time to take a new look at an old herbicide, thinks University of Illinois Extension's Aaron Hager in his annual battle against waterhemp. Metribuzin: recent research conducted in 15 states from North Dakota to Texas has shown effective waterhemp control longer into the growing season than what is possible with other herbicides. But the most critical factor to achieving residual control of waterhemp with Metribuzin is the application rate. For the dark prairie soils of central and northern Illinois, he says 10 ounces of a 75DF formulation is ideal.
09:18 FAPRI Cautions RVO Soybean Push
Todd Gleason: We are now joined by Ben Brown, agricultural economist with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. He's also with University of Missouri Extension. Thank you for taking time with us. On the FAPRI note, they produced an outlook at the beginning of April. Can you give me an idea of what the farm outlook might be according to FAPRI?
Ben Brown: Sure. For those who aren't familiar with FAPRI, we are a group of economists here at the University of Missouri. This is our 43rd year in existence. We provide farm policy analysis to USDA, Congress, industry groups, etc. To do that, we have our baseline outlook for 10 years, which is how policy is scored in a 10-year period. We have our baseline of agricultural markets—both here in the U.S. and global trade, farm income, and the like. That's what we use as our starting point when we do policy analysis. As it comes to the baseline forecast, it is out 10 years, but as everyone knows, weather, geopolitical changes, and changes in policy can alter the outlook. We don't assume any changes in policy from the current one over the 10-year period. All those things can change the outlook. So getting 10 years out might not be the best barometer of what will happen, but it's a barometer of where things could end up if things stay the same. It's a nice starting point for analysis. However, the initial years kind of help paint some direction. For our near-term outlook, we continue to show farm finances having a distinct difference between row crops and the livestock sectors. This is the fourth year that has been true, and it continues this year. We do have some increases in crop prices, which we've kind of experienced in the futures market here of lately, but some of those increases in crop prices are being offset with elevated input costs again, especially in the fuel and fertilizer sectors. When we look at the crop markets, it's maybe a slightly better economic scenario for corn and soybean producers than 2025, but still not great, and continues to be very weak. The other thing I'd point out, at least a starting point for discussion, is we have seen some clarification in renewable fuel policy, but there's some hidden provisions or below-surface provisions in biofuel policy that make that environment still relatively unclear. To give an example, we did get some guidance on how international feedstock imports will be utilized in biofuel policy. They are set to go into effect in 2028. Well, what does that mean for the short run? We could see a resumption of imports of feedstocks. It'll matter what happens in the trade environment with the shifting of tariffs, which have kind of been going on and off. But you can envision a scenario where maybe some of the biofuel policies that were favorable for producers out of last March could actually remove quite a bit of soy oil demand from the mix as well. All those things matter and certainly paint kind of a murky picture for the biofuel industry as we move through 2026.
Todd Gleason: Let me see if I can understand a little bit about the soybean oil demand. The RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) it appears should push soybean oil demand, but you're saying there might be a delay on that until 2028 because that's when things go into effect, and between now and then, feedstocks from around the planet might fill that void?
Ben Brown: Yeah, my point here is the headline numbers seem to be supportive and the industry has responded. But there's a lot of intricate details that actually could create a scenario where we consume less biofuels in 26 than we did in 25. That's currently not the headline numbers, and that's not what the industry is talking about. But when we think about the international feedstock imports that kind of plunged us a few years ago where we saw large used cooking oil imports from China, those have been curtailed largely because of tariffs. Well, some of those tariffs are kind of ebbing and flowing right now, and we might end up in a scenario where biofuel producers start re-importing product, maybe not necessarily used cooking oil, but other product to meet some of these higher blending RVOs because some of these provisions don't kick in until 2028. We're going to have some more discussion between now and then. So yes, the headline numbers seem very supportive for the industry, but it is still based on very small details that could change that outlook very quickly. It could happen relatively under the radar. We could wake up one morning and wonder why soy bean oil is down so much on trade news, and it again matters in terms of some of these very small details.
Todd Gleason: What else is in the report that you think is important to make sure producers and others know?
Ben Brown: The other thing is we do have measures of farm income and government costs. We continue to see very strong government payments as it relates to some of the changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill, whether that be crop insurance or ARC and PLC payments. Some of those ARC and PLC payments are based on delayed crop years before this current calendar year, so it's a little bit of a delayed reaction if you will, but we do see government payments being relatively strong in 2026 and providing a little bit of support later in this year. Those will come in October. So that's one thing that's in here. The other thing that's not necessarily in here, but something we've already started getting asked about, is how do these high oil prices and fertilizer prices potentially impact acreage? If these stick around for a year or two, given some of the infrastructure damage that's happened, it actually potentially leads to higher corn acres maybe next year than what we maybe would think. And part of the reason for that is it just impacts corn acres elsewhere in the world at a higher rate than what it does here in the U.S. and could send corn prices high enough that we increase acres in 2027. So something just to think about. It's not necessarily in the report, but that's one possibility that's out there.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it. We look forward to talking with you again soon.
Ben Brown: Yeah, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: Again, thank you. Ben Brown is an Extension Agricultural Economist at the University of Missouri, and with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute there. If you'd like to see the 2026 FAPRI U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook, you can do that by searching FAPRI Ag Outlook 2026. It should be the first thing that comes up. The report was released the 26th day of March.
17:42 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
Todd Gleason: Let's check the weather forecast now with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. We have a lot to cover. Mark, let's begin in the hard red winter wheat growing regions, and we'll talk about this into the Midwest as well, because there are soybeans up in parts of Illinois. There was some really cold air. Do you think it added to issues the hard red winter wheat crop is facing regarding drought, and whether there were enough freezes out there to be bothersome or cause a real problem?
Mark Russo: Todd, by our assessment, we don't think that there was widespread damage. Based on how far advanced the crop is and temperatures here on Saturday and Sunday mornings, we didn't see things aligning for widespread damage. You can't rule out some isolated pockets, especially in areas of northwest Kansas that dropped down into the low 20s. That's the part of the state that's just starting to see some jointing, so kind of right at fringe levels, there may have been a few pockets. But we don't see this as being a widespread damage event that would have resulted in any kind of big production losses.
Todd Gleason: And in the Midwest, where there were some areas that got cold enough, if a crop might have been up (say beans or a really early planted corn field that was just out of the ground), they certainly would have been caught, I suspect, by the cold weather.
Mark Russo: Yeah, for any area that planted pretty early up north, in northern Illinois, northern Iowa, that's an area that dropped out into the low to even upper 20s. A variable situation, so it wasn't very widespread.
Todd Gleason: We have now gotten to the point where it is go-time for farmers across the Corn Belt for corn and soybean planting. What does the next week look like?
Mark Russo: Overall, temperatures are going to be warming back up again. In fact, the next four to five days back in the warmer than normal category. However, things look to cool off again next week, so this spring time of highly variable temperatures, which even for this time of year has been more volatile even compared to recent years, it looks like that's going to continue as we move into early May. And then from a precip standpoint, overall the pattern is beginning to shift drier across the Corn Belt following last week's very stormy conditions, above normal rainfall, and flooding rainfall in the northern belt like Wisconsin, far northern Illinois, and Michigan. So things are improving there. It's going to take some time for some fields to dry out, but definitely a less active pattern here for the remainder of April and looking out into early May as well.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of active, reminds me that farmers will be on the roadway with big equipment. So if you happen to be traveling in the Midwest anywhere, be on the lookout for them. It is really easy to come up on the back end of one of these pieces of equipment so very fast and not realize it. So be sure to be watching and be safe. The farmers are looking out for you, you look out for them too. Finally, let's look out at the second crop, or safrinha corn, in Brazil. There are some issues there I think.
Mark Russo: Yeah, certainly not as good of weather as they had prior to the past week or so. We've seen the pattern shift drier, especially in parts of the southern safrinha areas in and around Paraná, and also now beginning to wind down the rainy season up north with daily storm activity becoming much more isolated and scattered across that region. For that drier acreage within and around Paraná, the southern part of the belt, they're going to remain on the dry side this week and even into the early part of next week. But there are indications, and pretty strong indications, that they get back into rains later on next week. So that's going to be important to roll forward and ultimately get into those rains to provide a nice replenishment of soil moisture before we enter the dry season across that area.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. Make a visit to our website at willgive.org or make this phone call at 217-244-9455. They're waiting for you to tell them that you're calling in or writing in in support of the ag programming from Illinois Public Media. And thank you much, I appreciate it. Have a great day. I'm Todd Gleason.
Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 20th day of April, 2026. It's the beginning of our spring fund drive. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. First, thank you so very much for listening. Secondly, it is because of you that we are still here talking about agriculture on Illinois Public Media. Finally, we still need your help. If you can make a gift today, a financial contribution, it would be fantastic. You can do that in two ways. It's simple, quick, and easy. Call 217-244-9455 for Visa, MasterCard, Discover, or American Express. Tell us you're going to send a check, but call now: 217-244-9455. Or online at willgive.org. In either case, put in the comment section or tell the person you're talking to "in support of agriculture." Coming up, we'll talk today about the markets with Curt Kimmel. We'll hear from FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, about its 10-year outlook for agriculture, and we'll discuss Metribuzin, a way to control waterhemp. We'll also look at the agricultural weather forecast with Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
Todd Gleason: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.52, up 3 and 1/4. July $4.60 and 1/4, up 2 and 3/4. December futures up 2 and 1/2 cents at $4.79 and 1/2. May soybeans $11.65 and 3/4, down a penny and a half. July down 1 and 1/4 at $11.81 and 3/4. New crop November soybeans $11.57 and 3/4, up 1 and 1/4. Bean meal futures down $6.70. Bean oil for the day up $1.47. Wheat futures: soft red up 6 and 3/4, July contract, the harvest month, at $6.06. Hard red July at $6.47 and 1/2, down 2 and 1/2 cents. Live cattle futures down $1.27 and 1/2. Feeders down $4.32 and 1/2. Lean hogs up 67 and 1/2 cents for the day. Crude oil in the WTI at $87.08 a barrel, up $4.50. Brent crude oil also $4 higher, up $4.74 at $95.12. Gasoline around 10 cents higher for the day at $3.03 a gallon. We are now joined by Curt Kimmel. He's at AgMarket.net in Normal, Illinois. Curt, thank you first for being a long-term analyst with Illinois Public Media. We sure do appreciate it because of you, our programming really works. We also want to thank our listeners during this beginning of our fall fund drive, because they do a great job of supporting our program. Thank you, Curt.
02:45 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel
Curt Kimmel: You're quite welcome. It's well worth being a part of it, and also listening and learning. Call it the information center, Todd. You provide a lot of good analysts with a lot of information, and eliminate some of that fake news we've been hearing over the years. Appreciate it, thank you.
Todd Gleason: Thank you. For those who think it's worthwhile, and I hope you do, please make a pledge at 217-244-9455 or at willgive.org. What took place over the weekend that was in the news and impacted the trade in Chicago today and overnight?
Curt Kimmel: I saw a meme on Twitter that says "straight close, straight open, straight close, straight open." It's opening and closing, I don't know if anybody knows anymore. It's like looking into the refrigerator to see if the light is on or not. I think the trade is getting kind of numb to it, particularly in the grains. Energies are a little higher, of course. Just reading between the lines and going with the flow, the reaction out of Washington is mild. I don't know if they are up to something mid-week, but that's what we're subject to: headline news. Basically, the grains were firmer on higher energy overnight. Wheat was firm overnight. That western wheat belt continues to see adverse weather: dryness and cold weather. This afternoon's crop conditions report is expected to show the wheat crop deteriorated another 2%. Kansas City wheat closed a little soft today; there's a little more moisture back in the midday forecast, but that will flip-flop back and forth. As a whole, corn had a nice correction off the March highs and is starting to retrace back to the upside, finishing higher on the day on the coattails of the wheat market. This afternoon's planting progress report is expected to show average progress in corn around 9%. Some estimates are 9 to 10%, and soybean planting around 15%. Over the weekend, there were fairly good rains, but going from central Illinois into central Indiana, it's fairly dry in spots. A couple of producers were working ground locally this afternoon for a restart tomorrow. If you go northwest of us, it's pretty wet. A moisture system is moving up to that northwestern corner of Illinois and Wisconsin, so it will be a little while for them. Still early, Todd.
Todd Gleason: I know on Wednesday we'll be watching to see what happens at the end of this "straight open, straight close" regarding the ceasefire with Iran and the war there. What else are you watching that we need to pay attention to?
Curt Kimmel: It'll come down to summer weather, longer-term weather. But short-term demand: we saw the weekly shipments report this morning. We shipped out 1.6 million metric tons of corn. That was about 300,000 tons higher than expected. Bean shipments were 748,000, average guess was 560,000. Wheat shipments a little light. Overall, we're shipping out what we've sold thus far. The main thing as a producer in here is we do get some strength. We're targeting a move back close to the $5 benchmark in December corn, moving towards the upper end of the trading range ($11.80 to $11.90) on November beans to make catch-up sales. A lot of individuals bought crop insurance to use as downside protection, but we still need to market the grain and take advantage of some higher prices here to try to do better than just average. There will be some marketing opportunities here as we move forward.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Curt.
Curt Kimmel: Very good, take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That's Curt Kimmel, he is with AgMarket.net, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report coming to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, and you are the public in public radio. Thank you for listening. Just know it is because of you that we manage to bring you ag programming each and every business day of the year. But we still need your help. It's our spring fund drive. I'd like you to dial in right now with some financial aid. 217-244-9455, or go to willgive.org.
08:32 Use 10oz of Metribuzin on Waterhemp
Todd Gleason: If your soil-applied herbicide doesn't control waterhemp as long as it once did, your populations might be resistant. Perhaps it's time to take a new look at an old herbicide, thinks University of Illinois Extension's Aaron Hager in his annual battle against waterhemp. Metribuzin: recent research conducted in 15 states from North Dakota to Texas has shown effective waterhemp control longer into the growing season than what is possible with other herbicides. But the most critical factor to achieving residual control of waterhemp with Metribuzin is the application rate. For the dark prairie soils of central and northern Illinois, he says 10 ounces of a 75DF formulation is ideal.
09:18 FAPRI Cautions RVO Soybean Push
Todd Gleason: We are now joined by Ben Brown, agricultural economist with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. He's also with University of Missouri Extension. Thank you for taking time with us. On the FAPRI note, they produced an outlook at the beginning of April. Can you give me an idea of what the farm outlook might be according to FAPRI?
Ben Brown: Sure. For those who aren't familiar with FAPRI, we are a group of economists here at the University of Missouri. This is our 43rd year in existence. We provide farm policy analysis to USDA, Congress, industry groups, etc. To do that, we have our baseline outlook for 10 years, which is how policy is scored in a 10-year period. We have our baseline of agricultural markets—both here in the U.S. and global trade, farm income, and the like. That's what we use as our starting point when we do policy analysis. As it comes to the baseline forecast, it is out 10 years, but as everyone knows, weather, geopolitical changes, and changes in policy can alter the outlook. We don't assume any changes in policy from the current one over the 10-year period. All those things can change the outlook. So getting 10 years out might not be the best barometer of what will happen, but it's a barometer of where things could end up if things stay the same. It's a nice starting point for analysis. However, the initial years kind of help paint some direction. For our near-term outlook, we continue to show farm finances having a distinct difference between row crops and the livestock sectors. This is the fourth year that has been true, and it continues this year. We do have some increases in crop prices, which we've kind of experienced in the futures market here of lately, but some of those increases in crop prices are being offset with elevated input costs again, especially in the fuel and fertilizer sectors. When we look at the crop markets, it's maybe a slightly better economic scenario for corn and soybean producers than 2025, but still not great, and continues to be very weak. The other thing I'd point out, at least a starting point for discussion, is we have seen some clarification in renewable fuel policy, but there's some hidden provisions or below-surface provisions in biofuel policy that make that environment still relatively unclear. To give an example, we did get some guidance on how international feedstock imports will be utilized in biofuel policy. They are set to go into effect in 2028. Well, what does that mean for the short run? We could see a resumption of imports of feedstocks. It'll matter what happens in the trade environment with the shifting of tariffs, which have kind of been going on and off. But you can envision a scenario where maybe some of the biofuel policies that were favorable for producers out of last March could actually remove quite a bit of soy oil demand from the mix as well. All those things matter and certainly paint kind of a murky picture for the biofuel industry as we move through 2026.
Todd Gleason: Let me see if I can understand a little bit about the soybean oil demand. The RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) it appears should push soybean oil demand, but you're saying there might be a delay on that until 2028 because that's when things go into effect, and between now and then, feedstocks from around the planet might fill that void?
Ben Brown: Yeah, my point here is the headline numbers seem to be supportive and the industry has responded. But there's a lot of intricate details that actually could create a scenario where we consume less biofuels in 26 than we did in 25. That's currently not the headline numbers, and that's not what the industry is talking about. But when we think about the international feedstock imports that kind of plunged us a few years ago where we saw large used cooking oil imports from China, those have been curtailed largely because of tariffs. Well, some of those tariffs are kind of ebbing and flowing right now, and we might end up in a scenario where biofuel producers start re-importing product, maybe not necessarily used cooking oil, but other product to meet some of these higher blending RVOs because some of these provisions don't kick in until 2028. We're going to have some more discussion between now and then. So yes, the headline numbers seem very supportive for the industry, but it is still based on very small details that could change that outlook very quickly. It could happen relatively under the radar. We could wake up one morning and wonder why soy bean oil is down so much on trade news, and it again matters in terms of some of these very small details.
Todd Gleason: What else is in the report that you think is important to make sure producers and others know?
Ben Brown: The other thing is we do have measures of farm income and government costs. We continue to see very strong government payments as it relates to some of the changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill, whether that be crop insurance or ARC and PLC payments. Some of those ARC and PLC payments are based on delayed crop years before this current calendar year, so it's a little bit of a delayed reaction if you will, but we do see government payments being relatively strong in 2026 and providing a little bit of support later in this year. Those will come in October. So that's one thing that's in here. The other thing that's not necessarily in here, but something we've already started getting asked about, is how do these high oil prices and fertilizer prices potentially impact acreage? If these stick around for a year or two, given some of the infrastructure damage that's happened, it actually potentially leads to higher corn acres maybe next year than what we maybe would think. And part of the reason for that is it just impacts corn acres elsewhere in the world at a higher rate than what it does here in the U.S. and could send corn prices high enough that we increase acres in 2027. So something just to think about. It's not necessarily in the report, but that's one possibility that's out there.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it. We look forward to talking with you again soon.
Ben Brown: Yeah, thanks Todd.
Todd Gleason: Again, thank you. Ben Brown is an Extension Agricultural Economist at the University of Missouri, and with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute there. If you'd like to see the 2026 FAPRI U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook, you can do that by searching FAPRI Ag Outlook 2026. It should be the first thing that comes up. The report was released the 26th day of March.
17:42 Ag Weather with Mark Russo
Todd Gleason: Let's check the weather forecast now with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. We have a lot to cover. Mark, let's begin in the hard red winter wheat growing regions, and we'll talk about this into the Midwest as well, because there are soybeans up in parts of Illinois. There was some really cold air. Do you think it added to issues the hard red winter wheat crop is facing regarding drought, and whether there were enough freezes out there to be bothersome or cause a real problem?
Mark Russo: Todd, by our assessment, we don't think that there was widespread damage. Based on how far advanced the crop is and temperatures here on Saturday and Sunday mornings, we didn't see things aligning for widespread damage. You can't rule out some isolated pockets, especially in areas of northwest Kansas that dropped down into the low 20s. That's the part of the state that's just starting to see some jointing, so kind of right at fringe levels, there may have been a few pockets. But we don't see this as being a widespread damage event that would have resulted in any kind of big production losses.
Todd Gleason: And in the Midwest, where there were some areas that got cold enough, if a crop might have been up (say beans or a really early planted corn field that was just out of the ground), they certainly would have been caught, I suspect, by the cold weather.
Mark Russo: Yeah, for any area that planted pretty early up north, in northern Illinois, northern Iowa, that's an area that dropped out into the low to even upper 20s. A variable situation, so it wasn't very widespread.
Todd Gleason: We have now gotten to the point where it is go-time for farmers across the Corn Belt for corn and soybean planting. What does the next week look like?
Mark Russo: Overall, temperatures are going to be warming back up again. In fact, the next four to five days back in the warmer than normal category. However, things look to cool off again next week, so this spring time of highly variable temperatures, which even for this time of year has been more volatile even compared to recent years, it looks like that's going to continue as we move into early May. And then from a precip standpoint, overall the pattern is beginning to shift drier across the Corn Belt following last week's very stormy conditions, above normal rainfall, and flooding rainfall in the northern belt like Wisconsin, far northern Illinois, and Michigan. So things are improving there. It's going to take some time for some fields to dry out, but definitely a less active pattern here for the remainder of April and looking out into early May as well.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of active, reminds me that farmers will be on the roadway with big equipment. So if you happen to be traveling in the Midwest anywhere, be on the lookout for them. It is really easy to come up on the back end of one of these pieces of equipment so very fast and not realize it. So be sure to be watching and be safe. The farmers are looking out for you, you look out for them too. Finally, let's look out at the second crop, or safrinha corn, in Brazil. There are some issues there I think.
Mark Russo: Yeah, certainly not as good of weather as they had prior to the past week or so. We've seen the pattern shift drier, especially in parts of the southern safrinha areas in and around Paraná, and also now beginning to wind down the rainy season up north with daily storm activity becoming much more isolated and scattered across that region. For that drier acreage within and around Paraná, the southern part of the belt, they're going to remain on the dry side this week and even into the early part of next week. But there are indications, and pretty strong indications, that they get back into rains later on next week. So that's going to be important to roll forward and ultimately get into those rains to provide a nice replenishment of soil moisture before we enter the dry season across that area.
Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. Make a visit to our website at willgive.org or make this phone call at 217-244-9455. They're waiting for you to tell them that you're calling in or writing in in support of the ag programming from Illinois Public Media. And thank you much, I appreciate it. Have a great day. I'm Todd Gleason.