Apr 22 | Closing Market Report

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Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 22nd day of April 2026. It is Earth Day. I am Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He is at TGM, that is Total Grain Marketing, right here in Champaign County, Illinois. Then we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. As we close out our time together, we will talk with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Along the way, I will bring you up to date on some of the agricultural news for the afternoon, and I will ask you to make a pledge of financial support to Illinois Public Media for agricultural programming.

This is the third day of just four fund drive days for this spring. We need you to call in right now at 217-244-9455 with your pledge of financial support. Our programming exists here at Illinois Public Media because of you. I cannot tell you enough how much we thank you for making this happen, but we need to continue the process. Call in right now at 217-244-9455 or go to willgive.org to make that donation. I have always said I like the $120 a year level. Less is fine, more is fantastic. You might try $240, $320, or $640, whatever number you want, but thank you for making that donation today. Tell the person you are talking to, or put into the comments section, "in support of agriculture."

02:11 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, that is Total Grain Marketing in Champaign, Illinois, now joins us. Hi Greg, thank you for being with us. We appreciate it on a beautiful 22nd day of April.

Greg Johnson: You are welcome. We do get a nice day today and tomorrow, then some rain forecasted on Friday. At least we will get a little bit more planted between now and the next rain on Friday. Things are good.

Todd Gleason: I imagine you are not getting many calls because most producers are running pretty hard if they can get into the field at this time.

Greg Johnson: Although we did have a little flurry of selling of new crop beans. We got back up to the contract highs this morning. That generated a little bit more farmer selling of new crop beans. The old crop beans are still 50 to 60 cents off their highs, but the new crop beans actually got within a quarter or a half cent of the old contract high this morning. It is not a bad price for soybeans, and some farmers took advantage of that.

Todd Gleason: I thought about that this morning when I saw that number. I am far enough along I probably didn't quite want to do that. There is always one other bump in May, and this might be the early one. I am wondering what you are watching in the marketplace at this point to give you signals as to which direction things might be headed.

Greg Johnson: Number one obviously is the Middle East. Crude oil prices are up another $3 a barrel. It sounds like the negotiations are on hold for a little while, although that changes daily, but today they are not scheduled for anything. Crude oil prices are higher. That has led biofuels, soybean oil in particular, to new highs, and that has helped out the soybean price. That is probably the biggest factor right now. As you said, the farmers are busy in the field and they have sold a few beans already, so they are just not as aggressive to sell more at this point. The lack of farmer selling is also helping out. The funds, even though they have sold off a little bit here in the last week or so, still maintain a very big long position in soybeans and a record position in soybean oil. We have all those factors working for higher prices right now.

Todd Gleason: I want to talk about that record position in soybean oil, probably based off the RVO or the renewable volume obligations released by the Trump administration, which appeared to be pretty aggressive for the fall of this year. Into next year, looking at those numbers, FAPRI was not so certain. There might be a surprise coming for bean oil at some point in the next six to seven months. Do you suppose the funds are long and rolling, and will they roll out of them if they finally realize what the RVO is really looking at?

Greg Johnson: It could. You have the RVO announcement, and you also have Trump meeting with Xi scheduled for May 14th. We have a big crop coming out of South America. I think they are over 90% harvested, and most people for Brazil are in the 180 million metric ton camp. We think we are going to be planting more beans here in the US, even more so than what was released on the March 31st acreage report, because of the higher input costs. There are a lot of moving parts, a lot of things that can change, and most of those would argue for lower prices. If there is a surprise in the RVO, it is hard for me to imagine that China is going to buy more soybeans other than just a token amount when Trump visits. With a big crop in South America, with more acres here in the US, and we know South America will probably plant another million or two more acres next fall, it is hard to find good news. In the short run, the funds are in control and they are long, so that is why we are at the price levels we are at.

Todd Gleason: One final thing on soybeans before we switch gears. I am wondering what you are thinking about acreage shifts based on fertilizer availability and price.

Greg Johnson: I think we can see 85.5 million acres pretty easily. If I am wrong, it could be higher than that. I think it will be somewhere around 85.5 million acres, which is up almost 4 million acres from last year, a little higher than what USDA is using. I just think there were enough areas that did not get their inputs bought, and soybeans are quite frankly a cheaper crop to put in the ground. Some farmers, either by choice or by the choice of their banker, will be inclined to plant more soybeans than what they were thinking. One of the county Farm Bureau presidents in Southern Illinois normally was planning on going 50/50, and now he is going 100% beans. That is extreme, but I think there is some of that switching going on in areas that can't grow the 240-bushel corn yields. In some of those less productive areas, soybeans probably make a little bit more sense.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Greg. We will talk to you next week.

Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd.

12:32 WILLAg News | Farm Bill, Farm Workers, and Earth Day

Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, congressional leaders are signaling renewed momentum on a long-delayed farm bill as pressure builds from agricultural groups. Lawmakers from both parties say negotiations have accelerated, though disagreements remain over spending levels, conservation programs, and nutrition policy. Congress continues to operate under an extension of the previous law, leaving farmers uncertain about long-term support. Lawmakers are working through budget constraints while trying to preserve crop insurance and commodity programs. Political reports note negotiations have intensified in recent days, with staff working toward a potential framework.

The chairman of the House Ag Committee, G.T. Thompson of Pennsylvania, says ag labor reform is high on the priority list, too. He expects a discussion draft of a bill modernizing the H-2A program to be released shortly after the farm bill moves to the Senate, aiming for year-round agricultural access and common-sense changes. Pushing visa reform over the finish line will not be easy, but it is long overdue. Labor shortages continue to challenge US specialty crop growers, raising concerns about production, harvest timing, and rising costs across the sector. Some crops have gone unharvested due to worker shortages. The Western Growers Association says labor remains a top concern for fruit and vegetable producers, particularly in California.

Debate over US biofuel policy is intensifying ahead of the summer driving season as lawmakers weigh changes to blending requirements under the renewable fuel standard. Ethanol producers are pushing for higher blending levels and year-round E15 access, while refiners seek greater flexibility and lower compliance costs. The EPA is reviewing policy options.

The American Coalition for Ethanol continues to advocate for year-round E15 access. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have granted year-round E15 in the last five years for summer usage. Congress is grappling with a more permanent solution.

Finally today, it is Earth Day. Farmers and gardeners are busier earlier than ever across the United States. In 2023, the USDA released an updated version of the Plant Hardiness Zone Map, based on 30-year averages of the lowest annual winter temperatures. It is getting warmer across the nation. The hardiness zones moved about 60 to 70 miles northward. The new map incorporates data from more than 13,000 weather stations. About 80 million American gardeners and growers use the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map. It is available online at planthardiness.ars.usda.gov.

17:00 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner

Todd Gleason: We are joined by Drew Lerner. He is at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, because he helps make the programming here worth listening to each and every day. If you think that is the case, dial in right now at 217-244-9455 or go to willgive.org and make that contribution. Drew, thank you for being with us again today.

Drew Lerner: Absolutely. I think it is a great idea to support you guys. There are only a few ag broadcasters out there with a program as good as yours. I hope your listeners recognize that. It is hard when you are sitting on a farm in Illinois or nearby to realize what it is like to get farm broadcast news in other parts of the country. There are services out there, but certainly the one you have generated for years covers it all. I hope folks support you.

Todd Gleason: I can do that, 217-244-9455 or go online at willgive.org. Make sure you tell the person or put in the comments section, "in support of agriculture." Now, I am going to be a little worried. Farms are being planted here, but that 45-day cycle you have mentioned several times over the winter is coming up. Should we be worried about cold weather?

Drew Lerner: It is something we need to watch for sure, because it could end up being a fairly significant cold surge. This far in advance, we really just do not know. Last Sunday, I would have told you it may not show up at all, but suddenly on Monday, models really started to show a cold surge building up in Canada. Today, it looks like it will be in the Midwest as we get to the last days of April and into the first days of May. It does not necessarily look like it is going to produce serious cold yet, but it is evolving. It has occurred with a great deal of rhythm. We saw this in late January and early February, bringing hard freezes to the Gulf Coast and Florida citrus. Then we saw it again March 14th through the 17th with freezes through the heart of the Delta and into the southeastern states, causing replanting of corn in the lower Delta. I am concerned we may see the cycle repeat and be surprised how cold it might get. Hopefully the air mass will be moderated enough that it will not be a big deal. Earlier this week, we did have impressive cold occurring, losing a bunch of apples in Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Even southern New England got hit. There were a few areas of wheat and corn that got nipped by that event too. This atmosphere is still capable of cranking out cold air. We want to watch what happens in late April and early May. At the moment, I would suggest it will be colder than normal, but we will wait until next week to discuss the details.

Todd Gleason: What do you see over the next seven days regarding planting across the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: Because the cold air is building up in Canada, we are going to see a succession of storm systems marching across the Midwest. It looks like three waves of rain before the cold air comes in early May. There will be disruption to farming activity. We have a lot of heat out there today, pushing into the Midwest tomorrow, but that is probably the end of the hotter days. We will gradually cool down. Drying rates between storms two and three are probably going to be slower. For that reason, we should anticipate slower field progress. It will not be stalled forever, but it will be slower. The cooler weather in late April and early May will cause a little slow drying down as well. Anticipate slower field progress in the second week compared to this first week.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Drew. We will talk to you again next week.

Drew Lerner: Have a good week.

Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. You have been listening to the Closing Market Report. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.