Apr 24 | Closing Market Report

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Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 24th day of April 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo. He is with globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Ag and environment reporter for Illinois Public Media, Abigail Bowtar, will be here with results from last night's Champaign County Board meeting as it relates to a moratorium on data centers. We will then turn our attention, as we wrap up our time together, to Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions. If you can stay with us for the whole hour, you will hear all of our Commodity Week program too. If not, it is up online right now at willag.org. Our panelists this week included Kurt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton, and Brian Stark. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

01:00 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo

Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo, globalcommresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace for the day. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us.

Mike Zuzolo: Great to be with you, Todd, and thanks for having me. Happy Friday to you and everybody out there on the plains, the Illinois plateau, and the black dirt.

Todd Gleason: A lot of people had been moving. A little rainfall caused things to slow down. There was a lot of bad weather in your part of the world, or at least to the south and west of you. Things have slowed down. Let's start there. What has planting progress been like in the corn belt portion of Kansas or along that Nebraska-Kansas line?

Mike Zuzolo: Very fast and very rapid. Being in both the western corn belt and the hard red wheat belt, you can get a pretty clear picture with the drought update this week and how the market reacted to missed rainfall totals, sending hard red wheat up 30 cents on Thursday after having been mostly sideways. We really do have a very fast pace going. We got shut out a little bit a few days ago with those storms that came through, but we're running once again. The crop progress and planting progress numbers look pretty good to me based on what I've seen in Kansas and Missouri and what I've heard in Nebraska. I think high-frequency trading got active midweek, largely based on weather across wheat, corn, and soybeans. The USDA acreage survey news on Wednesday also brought in high-frequency trade and reinforced the idea that bean acres could go up and corn acres could go down because it's too wet in many parts of the central corn belt and farther north in Iowa, which was 14 points behind in corn this week. The trade started to get nervous about the loss of corn acres because of the weather and the USDA reevaluating their acreage report for June 30th. That seemed to be the main driver. There was a lot more high-frequency price action. Outside markets were probably part of the reason for that too, as we didn't see a lot happen in terms of price trend action; it was mostly sideways movement.

Todd Gleason: Can you take up wheat for a moment? You have long liked wheat to lead the marketplace. Is there enough trouble in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of Oklahoma and parts of Kansas to cause wheat to continue higher given global supplies?

Mike Zuzolo: That is the most important question I've been asked in the last three months, Todd, because we are really at an inflection point. I did another show with Professor O'Brien from K-State, and we were very much in sync. He is farther west and has better feelers than I do. Based on what I've seen and heard from clients, the period between mid-to-late April and mid-to-late May is what makes the wheat crop nowadays. We can go through freezes well because the genetics are hardier. They can go through heavy rains fairly well. It is the drought and hailstorms in the later part of spring that are the most concerning. I will qualify that with the soft red wheat, as areas in the eastern part of the soft red wheat belt have received historic amounts of rain. Here, however, I think we're near a 2012 inflection point, similar to what Illinois and Indiana dealt with in corn back in 2012. Over the next 35 to 45 days, we could lose this crop if the weather pattern doesn't shift. On Friday, the weather models looked very different from earlier in the week, showing a potential pattern shift with significant rain coverage in the nick of time.

Todd Gleason: Let's come back to corn and soybeans. When thinking about how crude oil pushes both crops relating to the war in Iran, what issues do you see that are supportive and what might not be?

Mike Zuzolo: Over the last two or three weeks, the market has taken crude oil higher and bonds lower out of fear of worsening conditions. As crude oil goes higher, the bond market suggests the Fed must raise rates, which shoots bonds lower. That stalls out gold and riskier assets, including commodities as a whole. I've been asked why corn isn't following wheat right now. Historically, it takes 30 to 45 days for corn to catch up to wheat. Now is about wheat; 40 days from now, it will be about corn and beans. Additionally, if interest rates and crude oil rise and the Fed prepares to raise rates, the investment trade will be leery about buying into commodities unless they have a better reason. They probably should be buying into commodities because we will likely see more expensive commodities in six months.

Todd Gleason: Are you suggesting that portends stagflation?

Mike Zuzolo: It does, but I don't think we have experienced the jolt in other commodity sectors deserving of what we will likely face in energy. If we go up another leg in energy, I expect corn and wheat will follow, even if bond yields rise.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to biofuels. Are there concerns with the RVO? Ben Brown from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri discussed what the EPA put out and how the USDA is working with the renewable volume obligations. Is there concern that they don't kick in until 2028, which could cause a problem for soybean oil? Also, address ethanol and E15 year-round, which is still trying to get through Congress despite an executive order for this summer.

Mike Zuzolo: I'm not as worried about the RVO kicking in until 2028 because we have an Asian market going gangbusters to replace lost carbon through biodiesel, specifically in Indonesia and Malaysia. The biodiesel market has been a savior to the soybean market. As we prepare to meet with President Xi in mid-May, if the US-Iran situation remains or worsens, I question whether they will even meet. Many in Asia suggest if President Trump goes to China, he may have to compromise on Taiwan to get China's cooperation on ag exports or the Iran situation. The stakes are getting high around the Strait of Hormuz, and it could be a pitfall for the soybean complex. I have been bearish on beans for a long time and remain so.

Todd Gleason: Thanks so much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Mike Zuzolo: Thank you, sir.

Todd Gleason: That is Mike Zuzolo with globalcommresearch.com.

10:05 WILLAg News | Data Center Moratorium & USDA's TOTAL survey

Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, the Champaign County Board passed a one-year moratorium last night on new data centers. IPM's Abigail Bowtar reports the board reversed a previous decision to have a shorter moratorium.

Abigail Bowtar: More than 100 people attended the meeting. The original proposal was a 12-month moratorium, but it was voted out of the Environment and Land Use Committee as a nine-month pause. Sixth grader Samuel Tomory told the board he's worried about the amount of water a data center would use.

Samuel Tomory: We need the water from our aquifer, but we do not need AI.

Abigail Bowtar: A few union leaders spoke in favor of the nine-month moratorium, including Krissy Webber with Roofers Local 97.

Krissy Webber: Extending that to 12 months or leaving it open-ended does not necessarily improve the outcome.

Abigail Bowtar: With the 12-month moratorium in place, the county's newly formed data center task force can continue to develop zoning and permitting standards for future data center projects. I'm Abigail Bowtar, IPM News.

Todd Gleason: Finally, let's look at a survey showing 205 million cropland acres are rented out in the United States. The USDA issued the Tenure, Ownership, and Transition of Agricultural Land survey this spring. Called TOTAL, it details who owns farmland in the USA. It shows about 340 million acres of US agricultural land are rented out. This includes pasture and excludes public grazing lands owned by the government. The Plains region accounts for 43% of all rented acres, about 149 million, while holding a disproportionately smaller percentage of the nation's total landlords. The Plains states include North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas. Things are different in the Midwest, which includes Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. There are nearly 800,000 absentee landlords in the Midwest. That is 38% of the total across the nation, but they own just 21% of all agricultural acres. Roughly twice the number of acres are rented out in the Plains states by half the number of landlords compared to the Midwest. Across the nation, there are roughly two million absentee landlords owning around 167 million acres of cropland and 98 million acres of pasture. Including crop share landlords, the total number of owned cropland acres jumps to about 205 million. That is a look at today's agricultural news.

13:01 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass

Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the weather forecast now. Eric Snodgrass is here. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions. Hi, Eric. Thanks for being with us. It appears there was quite a bit of severe weather to the west of us overnight. Can you start with that and the Plains states?

Eric Snodgrass: The question is how far into the Plains states we got this. A lot of it was in eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, then moved into Missouri, and is currently raining over the mid-south, which has been very dry. These storms packed a serious punch. We suspect fatalities in Oklahoma, an Air Force base was hit, and the tornado video is incredible. For most of March and April, the corridor of severe weather has been from Texas into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and mostly Missouri. Illinois is leading the nation in tornado reports and set a new record for hail size in March. Severe weather has also reached Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. I saw many planters rolling earlier this week ahead of the rain. We have more severe storms coming Monday to the Midwest, specifically Illinois. Please stay weather aware on Monday. My colleague Andrew Pritchard and I have discussed the severe weather potential extensively. Ensure you have access to radar, weather.gov, and a device for warnings.

Todd Gleason: It's good to know Andrew will be on the job Monday. He is the Illinois Public Media home station meteorologist. Now, talk to me about the drought you discussed.

Eric Snodgrass: On either side of the wet corridor, it is incredibly dry. It starts in the Delta and goes over parts of the Ohio River Valley. Southern Indiana has been very dry, while northern Indiana has seen severe weather. Farther south, we had fires in Georgia this week. A colleague in southern Georgia mentioned they are not planting yet because it has been so dry. They may receive a half inch to an inch of rain over the next two weeks, which is insufficient. We need between 15 and 25 inches of rain from the Delta and Mid-South into the Southeast to end the drought. I have never seen a drought break gently. To break our fall drought in Illinois, we had severe weather, hail, and tornadoes this spring. There are also ongoing drought issues in wheat country on the Western Plains. It is another spring of haves and have-nots.

Todd Gleason: We may be facing some cold weather next weekend. Do you think that will take place?

Eric Snodgrass: I do. I am not worried about a frost, but temperatures will drop. We will see lows in the upper to mid-30s in the northern part of the state. Through May 3rd or 4th, we are dealing with cooler air from Canada, which is still seeing heavy snow in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta. I do not see a frost risk for central Illinois right now. However, farther north in southern Wisconsin, northern Iowa, or Minnesota, there is a small chance they could face colder weather and a potential frost.

Todd Gleason: We'll look at the state crop progress reports on Monday afternoon to see how things look if this cold air continues. When you get into June, July, and August, are you anticipating different prospects for the summer?

Eric Snodgrass: The new Climate Prediction Center forecast for summer predicted colder conditions over Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana. I initially thought that didn't align with the incoming El Nino. Historically, there isn't a strong relationship between El Nino and a cool summer in our area. El Nino typically anchors tremendous heat from Texas to Georgia, leading to ridge-riding thunderstorms. That usually makes a crop but increases the risk of severe winds and hail damage later in the season. If we have a big east-based El Nino, like in 2015, 1997, or late 1982, we tend to get storms along the periphery of the ridge. I am more worried about Texas than Illinois going into the summer.

Todd Gleason: Speaking of the south, how is the second crop corn in South America and Brazil doing?

Eric Snodgrass: They were doing great, but the monsoon typically ends in early May. The forecasts for the last two weeks, and the upcoming two weeks, have been dry for the Cerrado. The rains shut off early. Since about 20% of that crop went in late, there could be an issue with how the corn finishes. Every forecast continues to look dry for the Cerrado, the main part of Brazil's central growing regions.

Todd Gleason: We'll talk with you again next week.

Eric Snodgrass: Thanks, Todd. You're welcome.

Todd Gleason: That is Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions. He joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.