- Germán Bollero, College of ACES on SNAP-Ed Cuts
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It's the August 2025, the day before the beginning of the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. If you've not ever visited the state fair, this would be a great year to do it. It runs from tomorrow at noon all the way through Sunday, the seventeenth, the Illinois State Fairgrounds located on Sangamon Avenue in Springfield.
Todd Gleason: 00:27It's an easy shot from Champaign Urbana and almost everywhere else in the state. Make some time to visit there in the next ten days. Today, on the closing market report, we'll talk about the commodity markets, of course. We'll do that with Greg Johnson. He's a TGM.
Todd Gleason: 00:45That's Total Grain Marketing in Champaign at the elevator belongs to FS and Growmark. We'll turn our attention to some agricultural news related to extension and cuts to the SNAP educators across the state. About a quarter of extension staff will be lost, not because of legislation passed last month in Washington, DC. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner will be here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason: 01:22It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. September corn for the day settled at $3.79 and 3 quarters, a penny and 3 quarters lower, December at $4.01 and a quarter, three quarters lower, and the March at $4.19 and a quarter for the corn, down 3 quarters of a cent. September soybeans, $9.65 and a half, down 6. November at $9.84 and a half, 6 and a quarter lower, In January, soybeans, $10, 3 and a quarter, down 6¢.
Todd Gleason: 01:58Bean meal futures, $4.40 lower. The bean oil, 5¢ lower for the day. Soft bread winter wheat in the December contract at $5.29 and a quarter, up three quarters of a cent. The hard red December at $5.32, six and three quarters of a cent higher. Live cattle futures up $2.55.
Todd Gleason: 02:16The feeder cattle, $4.67 and a half higher, and lean hogs for the day, down 82 and a half cents. Crude oil, 79¢ lower per barrel at $64.36. The wholesale price of gasoline today, just about unchanged at $2.09 and a tenth of a cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, around a 138 points higher at $44,003.76 for the day. Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM.
Todd Gleason: 02:44That's Total Grain Marketing, the elevator right here in Champaign County that belongs to FS Growmark. Thank you, Greg, for being with us. It's been an ugly few days here in the marketplace. Actually, quite a while now, and I know farmers are below $4 on their cash market for a new crop, at least for fall delivery. What are you talking to them about this week?
Greg Johnson: 03:08Well, they're they're wanting to know when the bottom is going to happen happen. And every week, we get a little bit of rain, and Mondays are a hard day down, and then we spend the rest of the week basically going sideways, and then it rains again, and the following Monday, we're lower. So when is this gonna stop seems to be the question. And I guess when we're not sure, we look at last year's price pattern because this year is certainly following last year's price pattern, the early highs in January, February, no weather problems to speak of, so basically a straight line down. Last year, we made our low in corn on August 26.
Greg Johnson: 03:46December futures got down to $3.85. Well, we're $3.97 today, so we're about 12¢ away and and, twenty days away from, where we when we made our lows in corn last year. And on the soybeans, we made our low on August year, so we're about ten days away from when we made our low last year, and that was at $9.55 This year we're at $9.82 so roughly $0.30 away from last year's lows. So maybe the end is getting close to, or the bottom is getting close to being in sight. But it's certainly been a rough rocky ride lower over the last several weeks.
Todd Gleason: 04:27It's odd to be cheering for those numbers, but let's go for that. Well And and the rebound wasn't great, but there was a rebound coming into into the fall. And, honestly, if you had sold across the scale or sold at fall, a lot of it, that's probably about as good as you would have done for the year or a lot of the year, I would think.
Greg Johnson: 04:50Well, last year, we had a nice 50¢ rally, 45 to 50¢ rally in Corn between that August 26 low and when when the December corn went off the board in late December. So we had a nice rally. Granted it was from some very low numbers, but that seems to be kind of what we're setting up for again this year. If you look at input costs not coming down very much, sub $4 corn just doesn't seem to argue for 95,000,000 acres of corn again next year like we had this year. So we should see a rally in at least new crop corn prices, these 26 corn prices, as a way to incentivize farmers to plant a little bit more corn.
Greg Johnson: 05:32Otherwise, we could see a repeat of the 2013, 2014, scenario. In 2013, we planted 95,000,000 acres of corn, but, that was another year where we had low corn prices and high input prices. And the following year, we only planted 90,500,000 acres of corn. So, not saying that we're only gonna plant 90,500,000, but, I think the market's got some work to do, and it doesn't have to do it right now, obviously. But, sometime between now and planning decision time for next year's crop, you would think that corn prices would work higher.
Greg Johnson: 06:05So, you know, maybe it's one of those cases where we go lower into the fall harvest and then after harvest and we, you know, find a home for everything, then we start working on next year's crop, as far as price potential is concerned and see a little bit of a rally. But, right now, the the trade is just focused on what is the yield. US you know, what will the USDA come out with next Tuesday? $1.81 is where they're at now, but based on a lot of the private guesses out there, you know, will the government go up to 182 or 183, or will they go all the way up to 184 or 185? That seems to be the question, and that's certainly what's weighing on the markets.
Greg Johnson: 06:43So maybe maybe the best thing is to get past the August 12 report and, and just see how much the government does, in fact, raise the corn crop.
Todd Gleason: 06:50You did not mention the Stonex number of one eighty eight point one. That one's way out there.
Greg Johnson: 06:56If if we have a one eighty eight number out of the government next week, we will probably feel pretty confident in saying that we will take out last year's low of of of $3.85.
Todd Gleason: 07:10Pretty confident we're not that that far along, but but we'll see. They are they they are surveying, of course, producers. I read that directly from USDA mass. Again, for this particular crop production report, they don't get hard numbers this time around, So they're not taking yield samples, like they they used to. They've done that for a while now, so that that's nothing new, but it'll be, it'll be an interesting guess.
Todd Gleason: 07:40They use a lot of satellite work as well. So we'll figure out what they do, for corn. Soybeans are always harder because they're a month of August, but, man, the bean crop looks pretty darn good. What are you hearing from your producers in the area?
Greg Johnson: 07:53Around here, they do look good. Northern Illinois has had a little bit too much rain. There's some discoloring of the soybeans in places where the water stood for a while. And then Southern Illinois didn't get off to a great start. So I understand the bean yield's gonna be better, but I don't know that it's gonna be a record crop.
Greg Johnson: 08:13Corn probably has a better chance of approaching a record than the beans do. So and you're right. August will tell the tale on beans. The government probably will raise the yield if if I would guess maybe by a half a bushel, maybe a bushel, but, you know, I I don't think they'll get too wild on on raising the soybean crop just yet. They'll probably wait another month until they actually do some objective sampling.
Todd Gleason: 08:36Did the tariff issues that we've been watching this week or, the Russia problems that the administration has been working through, and I'm thinking both of India and Russia, they're related. But did they show up in the marketplace at all, or does it not care?
Greg Johnson: 08:53It it doesn't really affect the the corn and soybean prices yet. It it it it affects the input inputs more so than it does the corn and soybean, prices because we import a fair amount of fertilizer from Russia in the past, and India for that matter. So India and Russia, they don't buy a lot of grain from us. I know, you know, the trade deals, we're trying to get them to buy more, but same way with China. But, I don't think that the negotiations extending on for weeks and months.
Greg Johnson: 09:29I suppose if China was required to buy a certain amount, that might be psychologically friendly, but we all know what happened the last time. They said they would buy a lot and didn't end up buying what they committed to. It's like I say, it might give us a psychological bump if we do see some more trade deals announced, but the proof is in the pudding until we actually start seeing exports leaving the the ports and going across the the sea. I I don't know that that's gonna be real friendly.
Todd Gleason: 09:56I think I saw an unknown sale for corn earlier in the week. Do we have an idea where that was headed?
Greg Johnson: 10:02Probably not China. I I don't know why it it's unknown. I I I you know, we whoever bought it should should be able to say it's going, you know, here or here. But I guess as long as it's up in the air, they they can report it as unknown. So no.
Greg Johnson: 10:18We really don't know where that's that's going. Mexico's been a big buyer. We've seen some of the Southeast Asian countries come in and buy a little bit, so it could be one of them, Vietnam or South Korea, for example. But no, we really don't know for sure who it is. At some point in time, they will change that from unknown to the actual country.
Greg Johnson: 10:39But, as of today, we just don't know. Alright.
Todd Gleason: 10:41Hey. Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Greg Johnson: 10:44Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 10:45Mhmm. Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. You may have seen or heard already that University of Illinois Extension is cutting more than 200 jobs across the state. The move is in response to the elimination of funding for a program called SNAP Education.
Todd Gleason: 11:07I spoke with the dean of the College of Agricultural and Consumer and Environmental Sciences, Herman Bolero, about the cuts and asked him to tell me about SNAP Ed.
Germán Bollero: 11:17The SNAP Ed program in the state of Illinois is, an educational program that runs through extension. It was authorized through the Farm Bill and supported for the past thirty years education programs that connect nutrition and health across the state of Illinois, for recipients of the SNAP program.
Todd Gleason: 11:41How will it impact the residents of the state?
Germán Bollero: 11:46So currently it impacts 1,000,000 people in the state of Illinois, that are going to be not participating anymore in programs on education that allows them to learn more about connecting the food that they purchase and that they eat and they consume and health.
Todd Gleason: 12:08And the impact on Illinois Extension?
Germán Bollero: 12:12The impact on Illinois Extension is huge. More than, to you know, 25% of Illinois, employees, in Extension, will be sunsetting, will be those positions eliminated. Exactly the number of positions are two seventeen positions in Extension.
Todd Gleason: 12:34It has to be a big blow to the state, to the people, to the university when such a large program suddenly disappears?
Germán Bollero: 12:46Absolutely. And I tell you why, because I think Extension is about trust, Right? It's about, being in a community, delivering programs that advance society. Right? And this this 217 employees are part of those communities in the state of Illinois.
Germán Bollero: 13:08They know the people, right? They're not here in Champaign. They're all across the state of Illinois, and they're building that trust. They're contributing to those communities, they are delivering programs that have immediate impact in the health and well-being of individuals in the State of Illinois, they are reducing the cost of healthcare because these programs have been proven to, being effective in reducing chronic disease and developing good, eating and health habits. So I think that's the impact that has.
Todd Gleason: 13:47Herman Bolero is the dean of the College of Agricultural Consumer and Environmental Sciences. The state extension workforce will be cut by more than 200 people because of federal budget cuts included in legislation signed into law last month. By the way, that number does not include the SNAP Ed educators being lost in the city of Chicago proper. Those programs are operated through University of Illinois Chicago rather than University of Illinois Urbana Champaign. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Wednesday afternoon.
Todd Gleason: 14:33Do visit our website. The address is willag.org. There, you can click and play the programs anytime you'd like. You can do that as a podcast too. There's a page that says podcast, a tab there, and you can get yourself subscribed to the closing market report or commodity week.
Todd Gleason: 14:49You can also just search those out in your favorite podcast applications. We've been broadcasting and podcasting for the better part of forty years, actually, over some five decades now and more than 10,000 episodes. We're very glad that you're listening this afternoon. Let's turn our attention to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here.
Todd Gleason: 15:14He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, thank you for taking some time. Let's get right to it. We have a lot of ground to cover. I'd like to move from south to north across North America.
Todd Gleason: 15:26We'll begin in the Delta. They are in the midst of harvest.
Drew Lerner: 15:30Yeah. We've seen a big turnaround in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. You know, if you recall, the spring was just crazy wet in those areas. We had a hard time getting some of the crop planted, and some of the crop was washed out a couple of times actually. And we've turned the corner and now we're going the other extreme.
Drew Lerner: 15:50It's very dry in parts of those areas. And we've seen some of the dryness expand a little bit to the north into the Lower Ohio River Valley area. It's not nearly as dry there as it is farther to the south, but it's still early August. We think that maybe there'll be further expansion of that drier bias, not very deep into the Eastern Midwest. So don't get ahead of me there.
Drew Lerner: 16:15But, the immediate Ohio River Valley, including Kentucky and Southeastern Missouri down into the Delta and Tennessee Basin will probably, deal with some dryness for the balance of the month.
Todd Gleason: 16:27The heart of the Corn Belt has looked magnificent. Will it stay that way?
Drew Lerner: 16:31Well, it sure looks like it. You know, we've got enough moisture in the ground that if it stopped raining today and we had normal temperatures, we'd go easily through the next two weeks. And all of a sudden, you're in the, you know, in the third week of August and you might not have good topsoil moisture where your subsoil is still gonna be all right. And so we really only need one or two rains in the second half of this month. And I think we're home free for a lot of these crops.
Drew Lerner: 16:57So I don't see a ridge of high pressure coming in and setting on top of the Midwest. It may be in the plains and some of the Western fringes of the Corn Belt could get involved with something that's drier and warmer, But, you know, it's hard to, it's hard to look at this and think to yourself, you know, we still have a potential for a problem. There's always that potential, but I'm just not sure it's going to be great enough to really turn around the crop and push it into some kind of a bigger mess. And, of course, we could get another derecho and and cause all kinds of damage so that, you know, it's you never count those chickens before they've hatched. But nonetheless, it looks pretty darn good right now.
Todd Gleason: 17:37You mentioned the plains. Anything of note in the Western Plains? Are they expected to dry out?
Drew Lerner: 17:42Well, you know, they keep alternating back and forth. They keep getting these little surges of heat and then some cooling, and it rains across some of the, you know, plains and some of the Central Plains. It is pretty dry down in Texas. That's not all that unusual, I suppose, but, there is a need for rain in that state. We are seeing some hot temperatures right now in, areas from Nebraska and Colorado into Texas.
Drew Lerner: 18:09They will have, a total of four days of temperatures 95 to 108 degrees. Friday afternoon will be hottest. We will see some of the heat reach up into South Dakota briefly. The good news is that this heat doesn't go anywhere. And, so it will not work its way into the Midwest.
Drew Lerner: 18:27It will just end up dissipating as we, encounter a frontal system and some showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend. So conditions out there, you know, that's typical of the planes kind of bouncing around from one extreme to the other, but at least they're bouncing.
Todd Gleason: 18:42Anything of note in the Canadian prairies or Canada before we move off to Europe?
Drew Lerner: 18:48Yeah. You know, we've waited I don't know about we, but the Canadians have waited for a very long time to get a good decent general soaking rain in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Very tough year for some of those in the Northeast part of the prairie as well. Just in the last twenty four hours, we managed to get the first of two storm systems to move across some of that region. Canola is still in the late flowering and filling stages.
Drew Lerner: 19:16And from, I just got off the phone a little bit ago, in fact, talking to one of the producers up there and he's pretty excited and he thinks that the crop is gonna do much better because it was fairly well timed. Now he was in the Central Saskatchewan. You go farther to the north into the Northeast part and that area has been too dry too long along with North Northwestern, crop areas in Manitoba. So those crops won't recover, but a lot of the crop in Saskatchewan is likely to end up producing better. And I guess all of this is kind of the reason why the market's not exactly excited about moving upward today.
Todd Gleason: 19:52Canola rapeseed there. Canola rapeseed in Europe. France has had some difficulties.
Drew Lerner: 19:58Yes. They have. Now their rapeseed their winter rapeseed is pretty much gone. It's been harvested, but there is a lot of summer crop, sunseed and corn and some soybeans. There's even some sugar beets and a few other crops that have been negatively impacted by persistent dry biased weather.
Drew Lerner: 20:17Now they haven't had a lot of excessive heat in recent weeks, but it has not rained and it is really quite dry. Unirrigated crops in France are just not producing well at all. Irrigated crops is okay because there hasn't been a lot of heat. I think the water supply, even though it is quite low, it is sufficient to still support the crop. Parts of the Southern UK have been drying out United Kingdom, Southern England and Wales in particular.
Drew Lerner: 20:45They also need some rain. They are not as dry as France though. Another area in Europe that's got a bit of a problem with dryness is in that Lower Danube River Basin area and they are not getting any rain and both that region and France and the Southern parts of The UK are going to go at least ten days more without rain. And there's some models suggesting two weeks and some of this dryness in the Southeast Part of Europe has extended on across the Southern and eastern parts of Ukraine into Russia's southern region. So their unirrigated summer course grain and oilseed is starting to hurt there too.
Todd Gleason: 21:24Anything out of China that we should discuss or India?
Drew Lerner: 21:27You know, in China, we talked to in previous weeks, about the return of dryness in East Central parts of that country. It was dry in the spring. They had some good rain for a little while, and then it turned dry again. And, we are at the end of this last drought period and it will start raining probably tomorrow and frequently through all of next week. So most of the dryness in East Central China is expected to abate by the time we talk again next week.
Drew Lerner: 21:55In the case of India, there's been some persistent dryness in the far south of that country and they have just recently received some rain in the past few days and a lot more is coming. India's overall monsoon has performed superbly so far this year. There's a lot of surplus moisture. They could get a little too wet, but nonetheless, for right now, it looks like they're going to have a pretty good year as long as they can end the monsoon season normally.
Todd Gleason: 22:23Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: 22:24You bet. Have a good day.
Todd Gleason: 22:26You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois public media. Don't forget that tomorrow at noon, the Illinois State Fair opens in Springfield. I hope you'll visit the fairgrounds this year. It runs from the seventh tomorrow until the seventeenth.
Todd Gleason: 22:47That's a Sunday a week from this Sunday. You can visit the state fair each and every day. Look for Illinois State Fair online. I'll be there on Friday for Ag Day, and we'll bring you the closing market report from the fairgrounds. You have a great afternoon for this Wednesday.
Todd Gleason: 23:06I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.