Dec 01 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the December 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Logan Kimmel.

Todd Gleason: 00:12

He's with Roach Ag. His father, Kurt Kimmel, is out of the office for the afternoon. Then we'll turn our attention to the Illinois Corn Growers Association and the future of ethanol, e 15, and something called Ron. We'll do that with the president of the association, Mark Bunzelmeier. And as we close out our time together, we'll discuss the weather forecast too.

Todd Gleason: 00:35

We'll do that with Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics and take a look at production agriculture loans with ag economist from Compare Financial, Megan Roberts, on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, willag.org, where you can still sign up for the Friday, December 12 farm assets conference. It's a week from this coming Friday in Bloomington, and the Illinois Farm Economic Summits the following week in DeKalb, Peoria, and Mount Vernon. Do it right now. Willag.org.

Announce: 01:17

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:22

December corn in Chicago finished at 4.32 threefour, down two quarters of a cent. The March at $4.45, two and three quarters lower, and the May contract at $4.53 in the quarter. It finished 2 and a half cents lower for the afternoon. Soybeans, January contract, nine and three quarters lower. The settlement price at $11.28 for the day.

Todd Gleason: 01:45

The next contract is the March, down eight at $11.38, and November of next year at $11.25, 3 and a half cents higher, rather lower. Bean meal off $3.30. The bean oil, 30¢ higher, and wheat futures for the soft bread in the December at $3.50 and a quarter down three quarters the hard red, 3 quarters of a cent lower as well on this Monday afternoon. Logan Kimmel with Roach Ag Marketing now joins us. Hey.

Todd Gleason: 02:13

Thank you much, Logan, for taking some time to fill in for me today. I appreciate that. Give me your overview of this Monday session after the long holiday weekend.

Logan Kimmel: 02:23

Yeah. Came in today, and things remained fairly quiet after the holidays. We saw both the corn and beans spend pretty much all day and the red slightly, I think a little bit of carryover from the light holiday week. No big news lines hit today, at least in the market. So I think you saw a little optimism fade as the day went on and lack of Chinese bean purchases, at least on the daily flash sales.

Logan Kimmel: 02:57

On the flip side, we may be seeing a little technical pattern play out here in the corn, ran up to its two hundred day moving average and pulled back that after being last week bouncing off of the August and October trend line. So if anything, the corn market trading in a nickel range here today might be consolidating with some technical patterns and the bigger mover being the soybean from January down about a dime here today. Again, most likely market waiting to see larger China bean sales here by the end of the

Todd Gleason: 03:37

Is there expectations that those will actually take place from the market? I suppose there is. And what happens if they don't?

Logan Kimmel: 03:45

Yeah, that's the big question. We've seen, here today no Chinese official purchases in the export sales reports. There is some thoughts that, that might show up here next week. But that's the big question in the soybean market is, is China going to reach the 12,000,000 metric tons by year's end? Obviously, with the calendar turning over to December here, you'd like to see that start picking up, especially in the daily flash sales.

Logan Kimmel: 04:17

The other thoughts we've got to consider here, South America is getting planted fairly well. They're kind of in a holding pattern, no weather problem. So in the next three to four weeks, what does China do on the export front? Do they use breaks in our bean market? If we see a drawdown in bean prices, maybe zero two zero dollars to $0.30 to start to build up and get closer to that 12,000,000 metric tons.

Logan Kimmel: 04:45

So I think as we watch the newswires and the markets here for the rest of the year, that most likely is going to be the biggest, what's on our radar, well, what is China doing? Are they stepping in and accumulating U. S. Soybeans on weakness in our future market.

Todd Gleason: 05:05

I see that there is news that there may be another Russian oil tanker that is sinking in the Black Sea. How does that kind of information impact the marketplace, whether it be crude oil or other things?

Logan Kimmel: 05:22

Yeah, looking to the outside markets, that can be a big factor. I think if you see some risk on being put into commodities, you'd see that buildup in the energy markets or possibly even here in some of our wheat markets. Something to keep an eye on, but generally speaking, think if you see headlines like that build up, you see money flow come into commodities led by some of the outside markets like the energies, I think that could provide some support for the grain and oilseed markets.

Todd Gleason: 05:56

What else have you been watching before I let you go?

Logan Kimmel: 05:58

I think something to keep an eye on too is what have the currencies done here. I look back to, the first of the year and, really we've seen an uptick in the Brazilian real. I think that could help be supportive for our exports versus Brazil. So keep an eye on the outside markets as well as the US dollar versus Brazil. Brazilian real since the first of the year.

Todd Gleason: 06:22

That's Logan Kimmel. He is with Roach Ag Marketing. Hey. Thank you, Logan.

Logan Kimmel: 06:26

Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: 06:27

You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. A week from this Friday, I hope you will join me at the farm assets conference to be held at the Agricenter in Bloomington, Illinois. It's also the home of the Illinois Corn Growers Association. It should be a great day long event. It's super simple to get to and really we're going to try to get down to the fundamentals of the marketplace at this point in time, a transition for agriculture in The United States particularly for ethanol as we've completed the ethanol cycle and build out that started with its foundation in the mid two thousands.

Todd Gleason: 07:06

I want you to be there. It's just $80. Make sure you sign up. Do it right now today at willag.org. The farm assets conference is Friday, December 12 in Bloomington at the Agra Center.

Todd Gleason: 07:19

Now speaking to the corn growers, I caught up during last week's Illinois Corn Growers Association annual meeting with the farmer president of that organization. His name is Mark Bunzelmeier. The RFS, 2005, 2007 really put forward that twenty year plan that said we have a goal, of using at least 10% of a renewable fuel in every gallon of gasoline that is consumed in The United States. And part of it was that it was a transition to get to more advanced fuels. Some of that transition still in place, sustainable aviation fuel, sort of one of those things, as well, but we never really were able to come up with some of the other, sustainable, fuels, going forward or the advanced fuels going forward.

Todd Gleason: 08:18

Now we've made the bridge, haven't built the advanced fuels, and it appears we need more time. And that is an opportunity given the transition that is happening to electric vehicles for ethanol over the next ten to thirty years, three decades, it appears, to try to to carve out another larger niche as it's related to the liquid fuels. I was confused by the terminology, Ron. Still don't know what that stands for. Maybe you do, maybe you don't.

Mark Bunselmeyer: 08:56

When You go to your gas station and you see an octane number there, that is the octane of that fuel. And so you have your typically 10% ethanol, which is the unleaded 87, and then unleaded 88, is our is 15% ethanol. That is also considered with using Ron, 90 Ron, which is a research octane number as kind of a general principle there. And looking forward in the future of going up to a Ron or research octane number of 95, 98 in the future long term where we're getting up to those ethanol blends of 2030% in a, you know, a generic in that realm factor. But to do this, back in the past, there's been the Next Generation Fuels Act that was originally sponsored and under a different name actually by representative Schimkis and then brought back to the table by representative Bustos.

Mark Bunselmeyer: 09:57

And since then, Budzinski has worked towards that. Also, having some kind of future legislation or some legislation to look towards the future. The automakers can't just go and switch over a few things to have a different engine that runs on a higher octane. That's a five year process of developing those engines and be able to allow them to work on that higher octane using more corn ethanol. When you look forward over that time

Todd Gleason: 10:26

as liquid fuels wane were total gallons used wanes, does this maintain how many bushels of corn need to be ground for that sector, or does it increase it as you think about what those numbers look like?

Mark Bunselmeyer: 10:46

The electric vehicle market, knowing don't ever really know where that is in the future. Different people prefer electric vehicles, and I have no problem with that at all. But then also some people prefer to have a internal combustion engine. And we are thankful, you know, as a consumer of fuel, we're getting more fuel efficient with those vehicles. Every time you get newer models, they're becoming more fuel efficient, which is great for the consumer.

Mark Bunselmeyer: 11:14

And as over time, I assume we look at that also being more efficient. So there is gonna be working against that, but there's less fuel later on. But there's also more room in that fuel tank, hopefully, for corn ethanol, which will hopefully make

Todd Gleason: 11:31

up for that over the that time when we talk about just car engines. The hope then is that there is a set of legislation that will follow-up on what was originally the RFS o five zero seven that will bring forward a larger portion of each gallon going forward so that corn growers may can maintain a a level of demand that, can support agriculture across The United States.

Mark Bunselmeyer: 12:04

Yes. But besides just ethanol in our your car pickup truck tank, we also are looking as we've always talked about or not always. We have for quite a few years, we've talked about stable aviation fuel, which is still, you know, four, five years down the road, getting that available. The other thing that the US Grains and Bioproducts Council has been working towards that might be something sooner is stable maritime fuel, where if they use ethanol as in the maritime fuel is a drop in fuel and doesn't have to go through a different process of conversion of the ethanol like it does with stable aviation fuel.

Todd Gleason: 12:41

Mark Bunzelmeier is a farmer and the president of the Illinois Corn Growers Association. I spoke with him during last week's annual meeting of ICGA. Up next, a conversation I held in Kansas City at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention with agricultural economist Megan Roberts from Compere. I started by asking just exactly where she was located.

Megan Roberts: 13:12

I am in the Mankato area.

Todd Gleason: 13:14

Excellent. In Minnesota. But Compere covers the upper half of Illinois, part of Minnesota, Wisconsin as well. What do you do as an ag economist for a Farm Credit affiliated company?

Megan Roberts: 13:29

I am looking at the factors that are affecting farmers and our clients' bottom line. So what are the trends going on in the corn, soybean, hog, dairy industry? What's going on in the broader macro economy, and how might that affect interest rates moving forward? And just the overall conditions here in The US.

Todd Gleason: 13:51

Can I talk to you a little bit about the importance of crop budgets in a given marketing year and what that means for you and Compere as it's related to production loans and those sorts of things and how farmers should think about them?

Megan Roberts: 14:07

I am a huge advocate of understanding your cost of production in any year, and it's really important to make a crap budget, stick to it, and then at the end of the year, analyze how did you do over the course of the marketing season. And so just period, I think they're really important. I think they're extra important in a year like we've had in 2025, in a year like we are likely to have in 2026 where we're in a cost price squeeze and margins are really tight. That is where those plans and those budgets get really important.

Todd Gleason: 14:44

How important is it for those budgets to be updated as things change? For instance, additional fungicide applications because of rust this year or yields changing through the year so that the final, production number might be, say, different, or whatever cost might change.

Megan Roberts: 15:03

Yep. A budget is only as good as how accurate it is. So, at this time of year, as you're looking forward to 2026, you're gonna be making a forward projection on those budgets, and there's a little bit of educated guessing that's gonna go on. But then when you're doing a analysis at the end of the year, you really need to update and add in all of those expenses in order to get to a true cost of production.

Todd Gleason: 15:32

What does Compare look at in the end? When when somebody comes in for a production loan, what are they asking for? Do they ask for this set of numbers, for instance?

Megan Roberts: 15:43

Well, from Compure's perspective, it's going to be, in some regards, unique to the client and what specifically they're requesting. So not every loan is the same, but certainly a full set of financials is something that is most generally going to be expected. And so, if you're if you're coming in at this time of year, now is the time to be getting all of your information up to date for 2025. You're coming in for 2026. Yeah.

Megan Roberts: 16:18

Having a detailed projection, detailed cash flow, and perhaps even multiple options showing different different input choices, for example. The more that you are communicating with that with your lender and having that information, information, in my opinion, the better. But I'm an economist, not a a financial officer.

Todd Gleason: 16:45

Finally, because Compare covers all of Minnesota, Wisconsin, the upper half of Illinois, are there regional differences from one place to the other? And what are the largest regional differences? My guess, it might be only in Minnesota from the Northern Part of Minnesota to the Southern Part of Minnesota. There may be a big regional difference in in the farm financials, maybe someplace else.

Megan Roberts: 17:10

There are regional differences. In Minnesota, you're right on. We go all the way from the Canadian border down to the Iowa border, and it is very different agricultural production in those regions. But this year, I think there was regional differences across our territory. I had talked to farmers who've had some of their best years in terms of production, maybe not on the price side, but then also some that had too much rain, too little rain.

Megan Roberts: 17:43

And so, certainly, those regional differences are existing even within states, and then even within states depending on what the primary production is. So a row producer conversation compared to a beef producer conversation right now is incredibly different. Our livestock producers are experiencing some really good margins in 2025. They're buoyed by those low grain prices reducing their feed prices, and that is the primary expense on a livestock operation. And then on the back end, we have some pretty strong prices yet on that livestock side.

Megan Roberts: 18:21

So a lot of regional variation and not just because of northern to southern. We have those differences across really all 144 counties that we serve.

Todd Gleason: 18:33

Much difference between the beef cattle, dairy cattle, and the poultry producers that you deal with?

Megan Roberts: 18:39

Yeah. There can be. So, if you're in dairy production and you're doing a lot of beef on dairy right now, those might be some stronger financials. If you're in a herd expansion moment, you might not be able to be, selling as many calves or, selling those cull cows. So that's a little bit of a different story.

Megan Roberts: 19:02

We've seen regional price differences from creamery to creamery. And there's also, you know, for example, on the hog side, if a herd has faced health issues, that's a different financial situation. They haven't maybe been able to get as much production out the door to take advantage of these higher prices.

Todd Gleason: 19:23

Thank you much, Megan.

Megan Roberts: 19:25

Thank you so much.

Todd Gleason: 19:26

I spoke with Megan Roberts. She is an ag economist with Compere Financial based out of Mankato, Minnesota Minnesota during the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in mid November. Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics now joins us to recap what took place over the weekend. We made the transition, Mark, to wintertime for sure. Can you tell me about this storm that went through, please?

Mark Russo: 20:02

Sure, Todd. Yeah. Certainly an abrupt switch to winter here over the past several days. And with this holiday weekend's snow event, a very, you know, unusually early winter storm of this magnitude that pretty much produced snow amounts or accumulations anywhere from six to as much as 12 inches across much of Central And Northern Illinois, similar areas in Indiana and Iowa as well. Even around the St.

Mark Russo: 20:36

Louis Metro Area saw significant snow amounts. And what was most unique was, again, just this uniform nature of totals of around nine, ten inches, even as far north as Wisconsin or even Northern Wisconsin. So again, very one one of the biggest early season snows on record, especially here in around Illinois.

Todd Gleason: 21:02

The Peoria Farm Show kicks off tomorrow and runs through Thursday of this week. I think we're supposed to get a little more snow, but it sounds like things won't be terrible in the way of travel over those three days. What does this next week look like across the Midwest?

Mark Russo: 21:18

Yeah. Continued unseasonably cold and still some additional snow systems coming through. Although, like you mentioned, they don't look as big of an event as this past weekend. One of these events is coming through here, pretty much today and then even followed up on on Wednesday, but these kind of clippers moving through look more on the order of one to three inches versus versus anything higher than that.

Todd Gleason: 21:43

Turn your attention to South America. Quick look at what's been taking place there.

Mark Russo: 21:47

Yeah. Across South America, they continue to be in good shape from Brazil down into Argentina. There's been some areas of Center West and Northeast Brazil that have been drier lately and could use some more rainfall could use some rainfalls that boost soil moisture here to allow more planting, and that has already started to take place. In fact, those areas that were trending a little bit drier, they're now improving over the next few weeks. And even Southern Brazil, which this week is on the dry side, they get good rains next week.

Mark Russo: 22:20

And then additional systems coming through Argentina. Bottom line is that we're not seeing any imminent issues developing for crops as we move through this early to middle portion of December.

Todd Gleason: 22:32

K. Thank you much, Mark. You're welcome, Ted. That's Mark Russo. He is with Everstream Analytics.

Todd Gleason: 22:37

Again, the Peoria Farm Show starts tomorrow in Peoria, Illinois. And what's unusual for me, I'll actually be making a presentation at 09:00 on Wednesday morning at that show. Don't forget too that you can come to the farm assets conference in December, the Illinois Farm Economic Summit as well. You need to sign up for those. It is the month of December, and they'll start on the twelfth in Bloomington with the Farm Assets Conference in the following week for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits.

Todd Gleason: 23:05

I hope to see you at one of them.

Todd Gleason: 23:07

I'm U of I Extension's Todd Gleason.