Feb 17 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Landeconte University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported. It's the February 2026. We're two weeks away now from the All Day Ag Outlook. If you've not purchased your tickets, do it today, right now at willag.org, willag.org, you can go to the PharmDoc Daily website.

Todd Gleason: 00:21

You'll find a placard there for the All Day Ag Outlook. Either way, register today. The event is coming up, and you won't want to miss it. More on the All Day Ag Outlook as we make our way through this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. We'll talk with Naomi Bloom, of course, of Total Farm Marketing.

Todd Gleason: 00:39

Dave Chatterton will be here from Strategic Farm Marketing. We'll take a look at the agricultural news for the afternoon too right here on this edition of the program. Todd Gleason's services made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. March corn in Chicago finished at $4.26 and a quarter, 5 and a half lower. December down 4 and a half at $4.60.

Todd Gleason: 01:03

March beans, eleven thirty four up one. New crop November at $11.17 and a half a bushel, up four. Bean meal, three forty lower. The bean oil, up 21¢. And soft red winter wheat, down 11¢ at five thirty seven and three quarters.

Todd Gleason: 01:19

The hard red at five thirty eight and three quarters, three and three quarters of a cent, both in the March contracts. Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us from West Bend, Wisconsin. Hi, Naomi. I hope you're having a great day and a good week.

Naomi Blohm: 01:32

Yes. Definitely. With this warmer weather, it has been delightful.

Todd Gleason: 01:35

Well, it has. The marketplace has remained strong, I guess, for soybeans in particular. Can you tell me about this marketplace and how you view it?

Naomi Blohm: 01:46

Yeah. So the soybean market's still finding some firm footing on ideas and hopes that potentially China comes in and buys these extra 8,000,000 metric tons, also hopes of better biofuels, and and demand for the biofuels. And so that's been supporting the market. And we had a good, good crush number come out today for the NOPA crush. The amount of beans used in the January was 221,500,000 bushels, and that was ahead of expectations of 218.5.

Naomi Blohm: 02:17

And so the market found some support on that news. But, you know, we did we we're able to finish slightly positive today, but definitely about a nickel off the highs. Whereas the corn market and the wheat market pushing a little lower just didn't get a lot of fresh news for those markets today.

Todd Gleason: 02:36

Yeah. There are a couple of things that I wanna talk about. So the 45 z could be, probably should be supportive of the soybean market. The China potential increase in its import of US soybeans certainly, was what started a move in the soybeans. On those two things, can they continue to support soybeans for very long?

Todd Gleason: 03:04

And how does the end of the week, ag form play into all of this?

Naomi Blohm: 03:10

Yeah. Good question. So the market may be for the bean side of things. We've maybe factored in all the friendly news that we can for the short term. So without any fresh additional specific news on 45 z, it may struggle for the bean market to work higher.

Naomi Blohm: 03:25

This is also the first, it's the week of the Chinese New Year, so they're on holiday for this whole week. And so oftentimes during this week, China does not show up with a lot of export sale purchases. This also lends to that seasonal sell off, starting, like, February for corn, beans, and wheat to all start to flip over and turn lower into the end of the month, especially with South American weather being okay. And then when we get to the USDA outlook forum, which starts on Thursday this week, it's not a USDA report, but it is their first guesstimate at throwing some acres out there for the spring. And, traditionally, they'll use a record yield in their production calculations.

Naomi Blohm: 04:12

And a lot of times, it just hangs over the market because it's not usually bullish news in any factor. So it wouldn't surprise me if we see this market start to pull back a little bit lower as the week goes on due to the combination of seasonal selling, the USDA outlook forum, and probably a lack of Chinese purchases for exports in general for the week.

Todd Gleason: 04:34

CoBank today released a set of numbers, for their expectations. I wanna say they were at 86,000,000 acres for soybeans and 94 for corn. What do you think USDA will come out with, or where do you suppose those numbers should land?

Naomi Blohm: 04:49

Yeah. I I would say in general, what we're going to see next year is just a slightly lower corn acre number and maybe just a little bit higher of a soybean acre number. When you look at the corn soy ratio right now, it's nothing that's, you know, overly leaning one way or the other. I think it's closer still to about a 2.5 traditional ratio. So I I think a lot of producers in general still saying that they're going to be, planting corn.

Naomi Blohm: 05:18

It pencils out a little bit better than what soybeans is what I'm being told. So, we'll see what they say on Thursday morning.

Todd Gleason: 05:26

E 15 in policy in Washington DC has been a hang up. The Trump administration has thrown its support behind it, but, and I'll say this later in the news. I what I view, I suppose, is rather tepid because it sort of punted the ball over to congress. They haven't been able to do anything and failed over the weekend to come to any kind of agreement. Looks like the small refiners are the ones that are holding that up.

Todd Gleason: 05:50

They're the ones that get the exemptions a lot of times, a small and maybe the medium size. Do you view e fifteen as a weight on the marketplace at this time?

Naomi Blohm: 06:00

Well, it's one of those things where I think people are for it, but to be able to just release it and let it become too like, all the way to fruition is gonna, I think, be a challenge. It's still just a lot of hurdles to overcome. My opinion is that we'll see gradual increases in demand. They'll just slowly kick the can down the road as far as policy goes. And then eventually, in a few more years, we'll be running full bore.

Naomi Blohm: 06:30

But I always feel like they wanna wait and see how big our American crop is in the summer. Do we have any weather issues before they actually go ahead and say, okay. Yep. We're gonna do this new demand. They don't they don't wanna split the market or prices is my personal feelings.

Naomi Blohm: 06:46

So we'll see an eye so we'll see what they have to say about it in the coming weeks here.

Todd Gleason: 06:51

Yeah. And just as a reminder, the policy debate happening in Washington DC is about year round e 15, as you alluded to, and the idea that that can take place across The United States, the oil industry oppose relatively speaking, and the ag industry, of course, in support of that. One final question, that would be on the wheat market. How is it, impacting corn and its ratio at this time?

Naomi Blohm: 07:17

Yeah. So we're still looking for some of the lowest wheat acres, that we've had in in years in general. I'm very curious if we'll see any last minute push for spring wheat acres up in the Dakotas. But in general, right now, the perception is that the global wheat supply is sufficient. There hasn't been any big struggle or turmoil for production, and, wheat continues to be a follower in the complex.

Naomi Blohm: 07:41

So it had some, resistance last week. The charts climbed, climbed, climbed up to a resistance level for the Kansas wheat and the Chicago wheat, and then that seasonal goes into effect today where a lot of times that wheat market pulls back into the February. And I think that's what we saw today. We're still still hearing that, wheat production in Russia overall, still pretty big. There could be some hiccups with some of the transportation just because of the continuing bombing between Russia and Ukraine.

Naomi Blohm: 08:11

But overall, for the most part, people are still thinking that product will make its way out to the world, and that's weighing on the market a little bit today.

Todd Gleason: 08:18

Thanks much, Naomi.

Naomi Blohm: 08:19

Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 08:20

That's Naomi Bloom. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. In today's agricultural news, we'll start with e 15, an agreement on legislation to allow year round e 15 sales continued to elude farm and oil interest despite a Sunday deadline. A draft plan by the house GOP's rural domestic energy council failed to win support by the weekend from mid sized oil refineries, who killed year round e 15 in an earlier defense bill Despite breaks for those refiners from having to bear the cost of small refinery exemptions, it did not seem to be enough. Iowa senator Chuck Grassley, of course, is a longtime e 15 booster.

Grassley: 09:07

We got a few medium sized refineries, some of them making a billion dollars a year. They wanna be included. I never heard that for seven years, and that's what's holding up e 15.

Todd Gleason: 09:19

And despite not reassigning exempted volumes to midsize refineries, those refiners argued that expanding The US market for corn ethanol would cause them to shut down. House ag chair GT Thompson told AgriPulse he would not attach year round e 15 to his farm bill, and Nebraska Republican Adrian Smith said of other must pass bills.

Adrian Smith: 09:42

The must pass legislation strategy that, probably wouldn't be until the end of the year. I'd like to get this done before that.

Todd Gleason: 09:50

But a bigger problem may be lurking in the senate where oil industry allies from states like Texas, Wyoming, and Oklahoma argue more corn ethanol sales mean less oil business.

Todd Gleason: 10:01

Top corn producing states like Iowa and Illinois see year round e 15 as a game changer for corn demand, prices, and the farm economy and recently gained momentum from president Trump's support. Well, that was tepid as he turned to congress to make those decisions. But election year politics and competing controversies over homeland security funding and voter ID legislation will likely make passing even a farm bill a heavy lift for congress. Let's stay in Washington DC, but take up the USMCA. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Thursday that The United States Mexico Canada agreement has significant flaws, raising questions about the future of the landmark North American trade pact but stopping short of endorsing an exit.

Todd Gleason: 10:49

Navarro told reporters the pact, known as USMCA, will be reevaluated during negotiations ahead of a mandatory July review and flagged concerns including how goods from China could enter The US through Mexico and Canada. The comments come amid broader uncertainty about the PAC's future. USMCA is designed to eliminate most tariffs among the three countries and deepen economic ties. It faces political and economic strains as The United States trade policy shifts towards protectionism and reevaluation of long standing agreements. And that's a look at today's agricultural news.

Todd Gleason: 11:39

Let's turn our attention to the agricultural energies. Dave Chatterton is here. He is with Strategic Farm Marketing. Hello, Dave. Thanks much.

Todd Gleason: 11:46

I think we have a lot of ground to cover today. Let's start with the basics. Crude oil, we have, Venezuela to talk about. We have, I guess, a really good supply of crude. Let's actually start with that part of what what is the supply side of crude at this point, and how does it look?

Dave Chatterton: 12:06

Yeah. Todd, I think that, you know, you you kind of frame up the oil complex and the and the and the pricing there in terms of very much like you would the grain. It's a situation where the supply underlying supply demand fundamentals of the oil complex are really on the bearish side. We have plenty of crude. We're still producing near record amounts in The US here.

Dave Chatterton: 12:22

Our inventories are above the five year average in terms of domestic market. When we look at the international market, we've got OPEC who has, you know, stopped their cuts and talking about putting some oil back out here later in the spring and the summer. And we've got a demand situation of very much like corn, large supply of crude oil, good demand, but just not as big as the supply or the supply growth that we've had. Inventories still look like they're on the way up. But what you also have there is a pretty wide geopolitical element, as you mentioned, that involves things like Iran, like Venezuela, like China that are all kind of in Russia, Ukraine, I guess I should mention as well.

Dave Chatterton: 12:59

So all kind of creating a volatility and and a little bit of an upside or a risk premium in the marketplace.

Todd Gleason: 13:05

Okay. So if we have that volatility upside in the marketplace and you're thinking about what that means downstream for diesel or gasoline? Do you have some projections going forward, particularly that farmers might want to think about?

Dave Chatterton: 13:20

Yeah. In terms of spring diesel right now, Todd, we're kind of a little bit hands off here. We did do some, you know, some tank filling and some contracting here before the first year that turned out to be a pretty good move from where we're at right now. I think if you're an empty or you need to add the coverage right now, we're in rough terms, we're around a two thirty seven handle on in terms of the lead month futures on the NYMEX. But I think I'd be a little bit patient here.

Dave Chatterton: 13:42

We have seen a pretty good run up here in a combination of cold temperatures here in The US and in places around the world, as well as the geopolitical elements that I talked about. And typically with the geopolitics, we find that the bark is a little bit worse than the bite. And over time, I think we were our expectation is that we come down and probably get a chance to book diesel fuel again. Probably, you know, certainly with a a a two twenty handle in front of it or, you know, a two twenty five type of a handle. So we're not talking huge moves, but if you're trying to tweak where you're at, I think I would be a little bit patient with an eye on that two twenty mark.

Todd Gleason: 14:13

Let's talk about the risk, particularly for China, I suppose, maybe other countries as well. But what that means for the volatility in the marketplace, I think oil from Venezuela, which could be taken off the marketplace, of course. Oil from Iran, which may be blockaded, I suppose, depending on what the president decides he wants to do, though he's not talked about that, but we do have a fleet in the area. And then oil from Russia, which the president has really been pretty adamant about that, he will use tariffs more often than not. So what kind of volatility does that create?

Dave Chatterton: 14:52

Well, I think it's I think we've got a good, you know, scale to just look at what's happening in this market and and, you know, when China's involved in that conversation. And when we look at that side of the fence, Todd, you're finding The US, you know, or the administration here or Trump asking China to buy more US ag products and and continue that stream. And on the other side of that, though, unfortunately, the moves that he's making in the larger political sense seem to be, you know, anti China, if you will. So you talk about The US trying to sanction and and and potentially take military action against Iran, and Iran sells 90% of their oil to China. Talk about The US, you know, removing a leader and and having a big political swing now in Venezuela.

Dave Chatterton: 15:32

Venezuela sold 70% of their oil exports to China. You throw in, you know, boarding shadow fleets and tankers and different things that have to do with Russia. We've got sanctions on Russian oil right now with supposedly some some talks underway. Just a lot going on in that pot, Todd, and I think what it creates is a lot of big price swings and a lot of two sided volatility as we kind of chase the headlines one way or the other. Right now, you know, we're on the upper bands of where we've been trading here of late.

Dave Chatterton: 16:01

We've backed off from the from the recent highs, but not in a way that that signals a bearish trend in the marketplace. And, you know, I think you just have to be prepared for that volatility and prepared to act when your opportunities come. So if we see that dip or we see some of that risk premium come back out, remember it can come back in as quickly as it as it exited, but we have enough irons in the fire on that geopolitical front that, you know, we probably do not to fall totally out of bed or remove all of the risk premium, I think, that's in the marketplace right now.

Todd Gleason: 16:30

Anything of importance that producers should be aware of as it's related to propane and fall usage at this time?

Dave Chatterton: 16:38

Yeah. I think, again, I mean, we saw the big run up in natural gas. We're on the way back down. You know, we're in a little different situation with crude, but propane will pricing will try to attach to either one of those, whichever one is higher. So I think our our entity there is to be, you know, is to be a little bit patient.

Dave Chatterton: 16:55

I think as we get through the summer, we're sitting on very high propane inventories, and and and you wanna be patient and and drag that into at least, you know, probably May or June here.

Todd Gleason: 17:03

Hey. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.

Dave Chatterton: 17:05

Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 17:06

Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Medium. We are two weeks away now from today to the All Day Ag Outlook. Buy your tickets at willag.org. The cost is just $40 to the February 27. They'll go up after that.

Todd Gleason: 17:26

You wanna make sure that you get those tickets as soon as possible. It should be a fantastic day. The PharmDoc team will be there. We'll be covering the basics, but, really, we'll be talking about what's happening in the marketplace. We'll have two different panels with the ag analyst from right here on WILL AM five eighty Illinois Public Media Will Ag.

Todd Gleason: 17:48

They include a panel on soybeans and a panel about corn. We'll talk about the competition, of course, from Brazil. Joanna Colucci will be there, and we'll hear from Joe Jensen, University of Illinois agricultural economist. He'll set the stage with the fundamentals of the marketplace In the afternoon, we close things out, and remember, this is a really interactive conversation, we'll have a discussion with the ParmDoc team, Gary Schnicki on crop insurance. We'll talk with Nick Paulson about crop budgets, and Bruce Sherick will be there to discuss the value of farmland.

Todd Gleason: 18:24

Questions are welcome all day long, but you have to be in the room in order to ask those questions. Make sure that you get your ticket today. Don't wait. Do it right now. Willag.org.

Todd Gleason: 18:34

The cost is just $40, and that includes your beef house lunch at the noon hour and the cinnamon roll and coffee from the beef house in the morning to all the details again for the March 3 All Day Ag Outlook or online at willag.org. Let's check-in on the agricultural weather forecast. Now Don Day is here. He is a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don.

Todd Gleason: 19:02

Thanks much for being with us today. I want to talk about a couple of things. Snow in the Rocky Mountains, I suppose, and, from the southern border to the northern border, how the snowpack is and if there are any changes that are coming first, and then we can get into some of the weather forecast for the rest of The United States too.

Don Day: 19:26

Well, snowpack is a big issue this year. The the Western United States has not benefited snowfall wise like other parts of the country have, especially when you can contrast what has been happening in the Great Lakes in the Northeastern United States with their snowfall in the Rockies is completely opposite. In fact, snowpack conditions are the worst statement since 1981. And that would especially include some of the key drainages in Colorado and the Central Rockies. Now the good news is the pattern is changing and snows are returning to the Rockies, but snowpack, unless we can have a big comeback, is gonna end up very poor this year out West.

Todd Gleason: 20:10

Is there a chance for that comeback?

Don Day: 20:12

There is, and there's still time, but a pretty big hole's been dug because a lot of the snowpack that ends up in the runoff in the summer, you really count on late December through February to get a lot of that. You can still add the snowpack all the way up into early May in the West. But it's kinda like being down 49 to seven at halftime.

Todd Gleason: 20:34

Oh, well, we'll have to watch that one closely and see how that turns out now. Talk to me about the warm weather we are having today and looks like will be extended for some time in this month of February across a good portion of the central part of The United States and how long you really think it will stand, the test of time, and more importantly, the dry areas, whether they will get some rainfall or not.

Don Day: 21:00

Well, the colder weather that has vacated a lot of the middle part of the country is going to still be around in terms of the mild temperatures here for a little bit longer. Although, over the weekend and early next week, we will see some cold air spill out of Canada. And it'll start in the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains here as early as late tomorrow and into Thursday and by the weekend you're going to feel temperatures quite a bit colder. Now is it going to be like the cold we had in January and the early part of this month? No.

Don Day: 21:35

What you are going to see some are going to see some ups and downs. We're gonna have this mild weather. We're gonna have a few days of much colder weather. The temperature is gonna bounce back up again right around the end of the month. But there is gonna be some ups and downs.

Don Day: 21:47

But when you look at the calendar, ups and downs as the seasons want to start to try to change as we head into March, that's kind of what you would expect, sort of a back and forth. But we're not done with episodes of cold. We still have some opportunities.

Todd Gleason: 22:00

And then very quickly, if you have a quick preview of what you think the spring might look like?

Don Day: 22:05

Well, all indications suggest that if we don't have let's say a black swan weather event that would really alter things with the La Nina gone, with the sea surface temperature anomalies starting to warm up in the Pacific, We don't have anything that stands out as being a pattern that looks warm and dry this spring. If anything, it looks like we're going be trending towards seasonal averages across a lot of the Corn Belt Midwest. There's some hint that the better heavier precipitation may be a little bit later in the spring but right now I would be encouraged from what I'm seeing. There's no drought signal I guess is kind of where I'm headed. More than anything closer to seasonal conditions.

Todd Gleason: 22:49

Hey. Thanks much, Don. We'll talk with you again next week.

Don Day: 22:52

See you then.

Todd Gleason: 22:52

Yeah. It's Don Day. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report. Two weeks out from the All Dag Outlook at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana.

Todd Gleason: 23:02

If you've not got your tickets, buy them now at willag.org. You have a great afternoon. I'm Todd Gleeson.