- Ed Usset, University of Minnesota
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
From the land of Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the January 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net.
Todd Gleason: 00:13We'll hear from Ed Ussett, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota with extension, and we'll close out our time together by taking a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. A quick note as we get started for the day. The Illinois Certified Crop Advisor program will be hosting an exam study session this Thursday, January 8 at the Illinois Soybean Association building in Bloomington to help those interested in becoming CCAs prepare for the exams.
Todd Gleason: 01:00Illinois agronomists and educators will go over items included in the Tri State Certified Crop Advisor or CCA performance objectives that cover nutrient management, soil and water management, pest management, and crop management. Those interested in becoming CCAs need to pass both the Tri State, that's the Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio exam and the International CCA exam. Exam registration is available at certifiedcropadvisor.org. That's certifiedcropadvisor,all1word,.org for the exam registration. And study session registration, which is the upcoming event this Thursday in Bloomington, is at illinoiscca.org.
Todd Gleason: 01:44That's illinoiscca.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. March corn for the day at $4.44 and a half, up 7¢. The May at $4.52, 6 and a half higher in December at $4.63 and a quarter. The new crop up four and three quarters of a cent.
Todd Gleason: 02:03March soybeans, $10.62, up 16 and a quarter. May at $10.74 and a quarter, fifteen and three quarters higher. And November soybeans, up twelve and three quarters for the new crop at $10.75 and a half. Bean meal futures at $2.99 90, up $3.90. The bean oil at $49.87, 57¢ higher.
Todd Gleason: 02:23Wheat futures up six at $5.12 and a half in the soft red March. The hard red March at 5 twenty and three quarters, up five and three quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures in Chicago $235.87 and a half cents, down 12 and a half cents. Feeder cattle up $2.62 and a half. They finished at $355.57 and a half cents per 100 pounds, and lean hogs at $86.15, up $2 and a nickel.
Todd Gleason: 02:49Crude oil at $58.24, 92¢ higher. Gasoline on the wholesale price, up about 2¢ at a dollar 71 and 9 tenths of a cent. Gold futures at $4,451.30, up a $121.80. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average, around 800 points higher at 49,425 or thereabouts. Kurt Kimmel is here now.
Todd Gleason: 03:13He's with agmarket.net to discuss the marketplace. Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us. I hope you had a great winter break.
Curt Kimmel: 03:21Well, it was and it was kinda quiet, but we got through it okay. And now we're off to the New Year and and, hopefully we can continue the the trend we started here today. I I guess we need to capture a few more bad guys and try to run a few more countries and see if we can get farming back to being profitable again. This is a pretty crazy pretty crazy event and pray a pretty crazy year in front of us, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 03:47Yeah. Looks like a wild year in front of us at this point. You've been in this business for a while. Are there any indications on the first day of the year as to what the rest of the year might look like or correlations, I should say more likely? So if we have an update, does that mean a better year, or does it just not matter very much?
Curt Kimmel: 04:09Oh, boy. You got me there. I used to have that at my fingertips, and, yeah, that's always been a discussion in the past. I think more were inclined to think about the winner of the Super Bowl, what that does to the economy, whether it's the NFC or NFC conference winning that. But no, it's it's definitely off to a good start.
Curt Kimmel: 04:32I think this year theme would be giddy up, and I can touch on that a little bit later here, but so far so good on corn. We virtually had a daily, weekly, monthly price, even a yearly price reversal to the upside here, so things are kinda falling in place. But the news is optimistic, new year, new money coming in, that's kinda been the theme from year to year, so that's more than, than welcomed here. When you look at the overall commodity sector, it kinda feels like, the grain market's undervalued here in a good purchase, and hopefully the funds will direct some more money coming in to the marketplace. The big thing on the commodity funds, commodity fund rebalancing, that's gonna start here Thursday, and there's my ideas that, the funds could be in here buying anywhere from eight to 8,500 contracts of corn every day and about 3,300 contracts of wheat every day to get rebalanced.
Curt Kimmel: 05:38Now on the flip side of that, they're expected to sell about 1,900 contracts of beans, 4,200 oil, and about 1,100 mule. So we'll see if this holds true as we get into this kind of delta rebalancing. As far as today went, they were buyers of about 4,800 beans, about 11,000 corn, about 4,100 contracts a week, and they were fairly aggressive buyers of meal and bean oil. So, we'll see if that trend continues here as we move towards the end of the week, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 06:10Sometimes when there are threats of war, the commodity funds and they're in the midst of rebalancing turn to safer havens that can be the commodities, particularly corn, soybeans, wheat, gold as well. Those were all up today. Was that what was at play, do you suppose?
Curt Kimmel: 06:29Yeah. Think that's part of it. Consumer confidence, investor confidence, plus too, this means oil. You know, talk of big oil, big oil stocks, the oil stocks in general are all sharply higher, and I think that spilled over into the agriculture side of it. But I think there's some urgency or need to get hard assets, even paper assets.
Curt Kimmel: 06:53I think the economy's hitting on all cylinders here, and I believe the news is a lot better than what the media's letting on through here, so we're at least starting off to a positive note. We'll see how things unfold, and I think this is a big year as you move forward here, the AI programs are gonna pick up news of the Chinese New Year approaching here in February. And the reason I bring this up is it's gonna be the year of the horse, particularly the fire horse, so giddy up. Y'all can kinda look into that, but it's supposed to be a dynamic, passionate, transformative, independence, bold, potential upheaval, amplifying, And it reflects the horse's natural energy and the intensity of fire. So I think there's some outside factors, floating in through here.
Curt Kimmel: 07:45There's quite a bit of optimism, coming forward through here so I think it's going to be dynamic year to see some fairly wide price range and volatility around the world, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 07:57Now last year as we came into the new year, speaking of giddy up, our friend Dan Zwicker told us, you know, sell earlier rather than later. I don't know that you've talked to him. But since you're using Giddyup and that's kind of his term, yours as well, do you think this you sound as if this could be a fairly good year. Do you think it's early for a good year? I mean, does is it the first half of the year, do you suppose?
Todd Gleason: 08:22The second half of the year? The whole of the year?
Curt Kimmel: 08:23What do
Curt Kimmel: 08:24in mind? Well, if we kinda follow the sixty year cycle on the horse, year of the horse, it works sixty years. Last time we saw this was 1966 and we did see a rise in corn and soybean values, of course corn was about 45 and I believe beans were about $3 so there was room to move higher. That particular year and if we follow that trend, most of the strength was in the first half of the year followed by corrections in the second half so most of the options probably needs to be taken advantage here if we see it in the first part of the year here, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 09:02Any other advice before I let you go, whether that's on the grains, oilseeds, or the livestock?
Curt Kimmel: 09:07No, I think we're off to a good start here. I don't see a sharply higher market, moving to all time highs, but I think there's good support underneath the marketplace here and that we're gonna have some opportunities here as as we go into this spring.
Todd Gleason: 09:24Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it.
Curt Kimmel: 09:25You bet. Take care.
Todd Gleason: 09:26You too. Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. Joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at willag.org. That's willag.org.
Todd Gleason: 09:44There you can find our daily agricultural programming along with information from the crop scientist, the animal scientist, and the ag economist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. Ed Ossid is here now, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota with Extension. Hi, Ed. Thank you for being with us. Let's talk about 2026 and what you think it might bring for producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, and maybe some livestock.
Ed Usset: 10:16Well, in the world of, grains, we start from a low point, So I like to believe we have, room to go higher. I don't know why, but I'd like to believe we have room to go higher. Hell, we were setting a life of contract lows in the wheat market just in the last month. Odd. We've got, we've got a little invasion going on in South America, Venezuela, and we are I don't know about you, Todd, but I'm very uncertain about what that means.
Ed Usset: 10:47You know, they're they're talking about Venezuelan oil coming into the market, which could crush the oil market. And yet this morning, I'm listening to some experts, and I'm no expert in that field. The issues in Venezuela are not a quick fix. It's not like somebody's gotta tighten a few screws and the whole system is ramped up. It's gonna take some time as in several years to get that ramped up and producing and see you know, low energy prices that has an impact on soybean oil.
Ed Usset: 11:21It has an impact on corn. It's not necessarily a good thing. And, you know, and we have to wonder how it affects trade in South America, Central America. Little known I don't know if your listeners understand this, but do you know, who bought more? When when we when we put the final numbers on the calendar year for 2025, Mexico will have purchased more corn from The US than China purchasing soybeans.
Ed Usset: 11:56We're gonna be over a billion bushels of exports to Mexico last year. Unbelievable number. And, I thought it was unbelievable six, seven years ago when they were importing 500,000,000 bushels, and now we've doubled that. So that's an incredible story right there, and it'd be nice to keep that going. We don't talk enough about corn exports.
Ed Usset: 12:21My god. They're a record, coming up this year, and that's a positive. And we're seeing good, numbers out of soybean crush in The US. That's a positive. It's the it's not gonna replace China completely and or quickly, but the trend is good.
Ed Usset: 12:40So I like some of the things going on, and we're starting from a low point.
Todd Gleason: 12:44Yeah. So on corn exports, ethanol, number one export to Canada. That's a corn function. Mhmm. Mexico, number one going across by rail, a huge number.
Todd Gleason: 12:56Mhmm. Colombia, number three. Mexico and Colombia are interesting because the president talking about both of them Mhmm. And not in good ways. He does that fairly often.
Todd Gleason: 13:07Yes. So it it it's it's difficult to say what it means, but it could mean something at some point. However, when you look forward, you feel better about this marketplace, apparently.
Ed Usset: 13:19Yeah. I I have to. You gotta be an optimist. If you're in production ag, you gotta be an optimist. And, of course, the the you you mentioned cattle and beef, and and they're doing very well.
Ed Usset: 13:31And I know that because I served beef tenderloin for a Christmas meal, and, the loan is due in the next six months.
Todd Gleason: 13:41You know, if you talk to the beef producers, about demand Mhmm. You bought. Right? Yeah. You purchased.
Todd Gleason: 13:50You were demand. Yeah. Demand has not fallen off the cliff for them despite the really high price of beef. Yeah. Doesn't get talked about enough.
Todd Gleason: 14:00Yeah. Because I that that probably means the number of bushels being fed will continue to be fed. We do discuss that quite a bit. It still may seem that the USDA's figures are really high, I think Mhmm. For feed and residual figure in The United States.
Todd Gleason: 14:20I don't know. The exports, I I guess, aren't low for Mexico, but those two are related.
Ed Usset: 14:24Yeah. It's good to that's that's good stuff, and we need some, we need some positive thoughts, and I'm just happy to see the market up today. They talk about the funds getting in. I don't know what they're saying. We don't know if that's a fleeting move or longer term.
Ed Usset: 14:41That would be helpful too, though.
Todd Gleason: 14:42Okay. So what else do we need to look forward to, in the marketplace? Do you talk to producers about their input prices and how to manage those as it's related to profit per bushel or per acre?
Ed Usset: 14:55I don't get into that personally with producers, you know, getting into input costs and all that. But it's an issue. I mean, we don't we we read about it every day. We just had the, you know, the farmer bridge assistance program was was was released, what, a week ago. And, people know what they're getting.
Ed Usset: 15:17And the feedback from the, country is that wasn't enough, but we're gonna have to make do from it make do with it.
Todd Gleason: 15:24Not enough. There will be another set that comes probably from the ARCPLC payments that will be put forward in the fall. The higher of the two, it doesn't matter which one they were signed up for last year. That'll be a fairly large figure again. I I wanna say it's bigger than the than the 12,000,000,000 or 11,000,000,000.
Todd Gleason: 15:46I think it's 14 total. Maybe. But we won't know until we have full market
Ed Usset: 15:52share done Right.
Todd Gleason: 15:53For that. So if we have a really good year, there there won't be anything Right.
Ed Usset: 15:58Out of
Todd Gleason: 15:59ARC and PLC. So how do farmers feel this winter in your part of the world? Are they are they
Ed Usset: 16:07I'm not getting a lot of positive, feedback right now. You know, prices have we had a nice little rally in the world soybeans going into October and November and into early December, and it's faded away for the most part. And that's, disappointing. I think a lot of people were hoping it would, keep going. I know I was traveling in November and early December and trying to get producers to wake up and take a look at this this rally.
Ed Usset: 16:41Not that I knew it was gonna collapse. I had no idea. I just I just I like rewarding, strong moves in the market with a few sales. I don't think enough people took advantage of it.
Todd Gleason: 16:54Alright. So the next time around, because you are positive, you think they should take advantage still.
Ed Usset: 16:59Oh, yes. Oh, yes. I will remind them if we get back to where we were, six, eight weeks ago.
Todd Gleason: 17:06Maybe just best to put the cash orders in and make the sales.
Ed Usset: 17:09That'd be a good idea.
Todd Gleason: 17:11Alright. Thank you much. I'll talk to you again in a month.
Ed Usset: 17:14Okay. Thank you. Take care.
Todd Gleason: 17:16You too. That's Ed Asset. He's an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota with extension. A quick reminder that if did not make the farm assets conference in mid December or even if you didn't and you want to review all of that material, can do it right now on our website at wilag.org, willag.org. I would suggest that you start with the number three in that series.
Todd Gleason: 17:43That's with Nick Paulson taking a look at farm management and crop budgets for the coming year. I think the ag policy issues are really important, and there's a lot of insight there. New demand, of course, is in the list. I want you to talk about that too. I want you to listen through that as well.
Todd Gleason: 18:01You can find those all on our website at willag.org, willag.org. If you prefer to use YouTube, there will be a link there. I don't think it's there yet, but I'll put it up later. And those programs will be archived permanently on the PharmDoc website in the events archive under the PharmAssets conference as YouTube videos. Let's take a look at the weather forecast now for the New Year.
Todd Gleason: 18:38Mark Russo is here. He's with Everstream Analytics. Been a couple of weeks since we talked to you, Mark. Thanks for being with us today. I appreciate that.
Mark Russo: 18:45Thanks, Todd. Happy New Year to everyone.
Todd Gleason: 18:47Well, let's start here in The United States with this first full week of the New Year. It's kinda warm. Is it gonna stay that way?
Mark Russo: 18:56Yeah, Todd. It does look to stay that way coming up, not only over the next week, but even into next week as well. Some of this record setting warmth across the Plains region will be expanding into the Midwest over the next few days. And this overall warmer than normal pattern has some longevity to it at least through the fifteenth of the month and maybe even a little bit after that. There are some signs that later in the month or second half of the month could begin to see some cold air or Arctic air return to the Midwest.
Mark Russo: 19:29But for the time being, it's very mild air.
Todd Gleason: 19:33Is there any concern in the soft or in the rather in the hard red winter wheat growing regions at this time? Have they had enough moisture?
Mark Russo: 19:40Things have turned to drier there across the Plains region and much of the Southern US in general over the past month's time frame. So with the dryness and now this anomalous warmth that is beginning to deplete soil moisture for the plains hard red winter wheat belt, and even some of this recent warmth may be pushing the crop a little bit out of a you know, it's dormant dormancy here, which is not a problem. But if we see Arctic air return in a big way later in the month, that could begin to introduce some issues. So definitely something to watch here, this combination of anomalous warmth and dryness. Not any immediate concern, but definitely on the watch list.
Todd Gleason: 20:24As we closed out our discussions a couple of weeks ago coming out of 2025, looking into South America, most meteorologists were no longer worried about dry conditions, that that had gone away and had abated across most of Argentina and, particularly Brazil, though many were worried that rainfall would continue and that that could become a problem there. What did the two weeks look like over this winter break?
Mark Russo: 20:56Yeah. It's been on the drier side across much of Argentina, and temperatures at times have heated up quite a bit. And so now the focus is on whether rains will eventually return to Argentina. And while this week will feature mostly dry weather across Argentina, with the exception of the Northern Belt, it's next week, which is a timeframe that looks to provide a really good opportunity for rain. Right around the January timeframe is when a widespread rain event is projected.
Mark Russo: 21:31So as long as that verifies, it's kind of what's advertised in the computer model guidance, that is going to replenish soil moisture and keep Argentina in good shape.
Todd Gleason: 21:40Let's hopscotch northward. We'll start with the Southern part of Brazil. What are crop conditions like there today?
Mark Russo: 21:47Yeah. Crop conditions are really, really good. They've had ample moisture in recent weeks, and that looks to continue as we go through the next several weeks here with normal to even a little bit above normal rainfall and a lack of heat. So Southern Brazil will be in good shape. And then up north in the areas of Center West, that is one area, especially southern areas of Mato Grosso, Southern Goias, Northern Mato Grosso Do Sul.
Mark Russo: 22:14They are beginning to trend a little drier here over the next couple of weeks. They just got significant rain, so there's no issues there right now. But it puts emphasis on rains returning to that area right at month's end and into early February to to keep things in good shape. But that's the only thing to keep an eye on right now in Brazil.
Todd Gleason: 22:33Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
Mark Russo: 22:36You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 22:37That's Mark Russo. He is with Everstream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois public media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, willag.org, where right now you can find all 10 segments from the farm assets conference, the audio for you to listen to. They make great radio programs. You'll want to listen to those today.
Todd Gleason: 23:03If you've not heard them already, that's at willag.org. I'm Todd Gleason.