Jan 09 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grand University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the January 2026. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzlow. He's at globalcomresearch.com out of Acheson, Kansas, and we'll hear from Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Ag Solutions in Decorable about the weather forecast.

Todd Gleason: 00:22

If you can stay with us for a whole hour, you'll hear all of commodity week. If not, it's up online right now at willag.org. March corn for the day settled at $4.45 and 3 quarters. It was a quarter of a cent lower on the afternoon. May futures at $4.53 and 3 quarters down a quarter, and December futures at $4.64, a half cent lower.

Todd Gleason: 00:44

March soybeans up a penny and a quarter. Settlement price at $10.62 and a half. May up one and a quarter, and November beans down a penny and a quarter at $10.71 and 3 quarters. Bean meal futures 10¢ higher at $3.00 $3.70. The bean oil up 23¢ at $50.20 that in the May contract.

Todd Gleason: 01:04

Hard red winter wheat futures settled at $5.30 and a quarter unchanged. For the March, the soft bread at $5.17 and a quarter, down three quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures in Chicago, a buck 55 lower. Settlement price at $2.33 72 and a half for a 100 pounds. Feeders were down $3.02 and a half cents for the day, and lean hogs at 57 and a half cents lower, $85.30 the trade.

Todd Gleason: 01:30

Mike Zuzolo joins us now from globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas to take a look at the closing trade at the CME Group for this week. Thanks much, Mike, for taking some time with us. Let's start with the Supreme Court. This morning, it could have but did not deliver an opinion related to the Trump tariffs. The next time that might be possible will be Wednesday of next week if the court so chooses.

Todd Gleason: 01:58

Those aren't put on the docket, so they're always a surprise one way or the other, but we know when opinions might come. As you look into Monday for the USDA reports, this will be now, I think, what you would call a clean report?

Mike Zuzolo: 02:14

Yeah. I think so, Todd. I mean, I think we've got enough things to deal with right now in the in the report by itself when it comes to the yields and when it comes to the winter wheat acreage base. And obviously, when it comes to what the production figures for South America could be. And on top of that, we did close out Friday, I think, with more of a weather market in South America and more of a weather market in The US hard red wheat belt than we had maybe beginning the year off and kicking this week off.

Mike Zuzolo: 02:44

And that was very welcome. Because it seemed as though the trade like it likes to do, it tends to pull a lot of risk premium out if there's a chance for rain. And if there's a chance for benign weather, it's a lot slower, it seems to me, to wanna put that premium back in. So it's nice to see that they're a little bit more respectful of the weather ahead of the crop report. And it's nice to be able to just look at the numbers and not have to guess whether the USDA was working through the supreme court decision on tariffs or not.

Mike Zuzolo: 03:13

How the unlikely it would have, but at least we don't even have to think about it at this point.

Todd Gleason: 03:18

Okay. I do wanna talk about wheat acreage. What are your expectations? And then if you could maybe walk us through what the wheat issues related to weather might be.

Mike Zuzolo: 03:27

Yeah. Great questions both. I the trade estimates on on Reuters is an average of about 32.4 all winter wheat compared to 33.1 last year. I'm a little higher than that at 33 even for all winter. I I don't see a lot of decline in hard red weight acreage base and and the belt here in in our part of the world.

Mike Zuzolo: 03:49

And the yields were so high and soft red wheat back in your state in Indiana, in Ohio if you got the needed rains. You know, a 100, a 110 bushel wheat in in places, you know, not far from the Illinois River by, you know, Chenoa and places like that. Not uncommon. And so I felt like that the soft red wheat maybe would even go up a little bit when it came to this year versus last year, especially given the nitrogen prices and and what we're dealing with on the cost side and the uncertainty on the cost side too. So 33,000,000 acres, if you would go into the average trade guess of 32.4 or below, I think that would stimulate some support in this market.

Mike Zuzolo: 04:31

But what really is at stake here is what you just asked about as far as the weather. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas for the month of December registered about 75 to 90% below the normal level of precip in those three states. We're starting to see the winter wheat conditions deteriorate pretty dramatically dramatically in double digits in states like Nebraska, And we're starting to see a situation develop where the new CPC forecast this week looked like it was bullish for wheat, bearish for cattle. Why? Because it was dry and warm.

Mike Zuzolo: 05:05

So those are the things we're contending with.

Todd Gleason: 05:07

Okay. Now let's, fold those numbers into what the corn expectations might be, how wheat could help to pull or hold down the price of corn given what happens on Monday.

Mike Zuzolo: 05:19

I had pretty shaky legs and weak knees this week between the Venezuela oil takeover and then the question mark about the supreme court, but I was really impressed with how the wheat and the crude were on the move in the later part of the week. Both of them performing very nicely. And and this would make sense because they still are tied together through the Baltic, through the Black Sea, and through the supply side question marks. Russia throwing out a hypersonic missile, Russia hitting Odessa again, and then the Iranian situation. This is all of these things are stirring up, I think, more fear and and more, risk premium being pushed into the wheat in the crude oil market.

Mike Zuzolo: 06:00

So we have that. The reason I bring that up, Tom, is because we have that coming off of Friday that we are lucky enough to see that, piece of the puzzle in the outside marks markets support us when it comes to the supply demand report. And that was a big question mark of my mind when we got to midweek this week. So my my basic point being is that if we could get a yield decline in the corn, whether the beans get a yield decline or not, the trade's okay with not getting one, I think, but I think they really wanna yield decline in the corn. If you could have both a weak weather market, supportive fundamentals on the supply demand report for wheat and corn, and and then have the South American weather still out there looming as far as a drier than expected Argentina and a crop in corn that's probably getting hit right now with production losses in Argentina, that that would be a good recipe for us, I think, next week.

Todd Gleason: 06:54

So you're telling me the geopolitical and logistical issues related to that, are supportive at least to the marketplace, particularly for corn at the moment, especially if there is a drop in corn yield. Soybeans also will be, get their final number from USDA next week. They'll put some numbers on the size of the crop, which is a big one at this point, I believe, in South America. And then Conab would come back on, I think, the fourteenth with their set of numbers. What do you think of those?

Mike Zuzolo: 07:22

Yeah. That's exactly right. I think the soybeans, I'm I'm a little bit more nervous about when it comes to I hope we get a yield decline because we do have the South American crop coming on right now. Center West Brazil is wanting to harvest soybeans and get that second crop, safrinha corn in. I I think the other thing too is the downside of what we did in Venezuela as as a geopolitical feature, we are still in a playbook mindset of president Reagan.

Mike Zuzolo: 07:47

We talked about this with Japan and the currency situation and the tariff situation about a month or two or five ago. What president Trump did in Venezuela is almost identical to what president Reagan did in 1986 in Latin America, actually going after international, terrorism and going after drug trade specifically into some of the resources I pulled up. So we're still in that mid nineteen eighties back to the future type mindset. The downside to that is we're probably not gonna be working with China as well and when it comes to trade negotiations. So that sets us more on the defensive of needing more of a weather market coming out of South America, especially as they pull beans off.

Mike Zuzolo: 08:27

So that's kinda how I see it right now.

Todd Gleason: 08:29

Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.

Mike Zuzolo: 08:31

Thank you, Todd. Take care.

Todd Gleason: 08:33

Mhmm. Mike Zuzalo is at globalcomresearch.com. Let's turn our attention to some muddy boots agriculture this afternoon. Alfalfa growers across the Midwest are being asked to weigh in on a growing challenge in the field after a season of heavy pest pressure and reports of insecticide failures in states like, well, Illinois, researchers at the University of Minnesota and neighboring land grant universities are launching a regional needs assessment. The goal says U of I Extension field crops entomologist entomologist Nick Sider is to determine if the alfalfa weevil, a pest with a long history of developing resistance, is adapting to current control methods.

Nick Seiter: 09:18

We have a regional survey of insect pest management practices in alfalfa, and this is something that's being coordinated by our colleagues at University of Minnesota, but it's designed to go out throughout the Midwestern US to learn more about what's going on in alfalfa. What are the major insect management challenges we're seeing? What our control procedures look like? And if we're experiencing any issues, any challenges controlling insect pests that maybe didn't used to be a challenge for us.

Todd Gleason: 09:57

Ultimately, the survey serves as an essential early warning system for the industry. With insecticide failures already surfacing in states like Illinois, researchers need your input to determine if the alfalfa weevil is officially outsmarting current control methods. If you farm or advise on alfalfa, take just five minutes to share your experience at z.umn.edu/alfalfapestsurvey or just search alfalfa pest survey online. Your feedback is the first step in building a more resilient management plan for the 2026 growing season. Let's stay with production agriculture and money boots.

Todd Gleason: 10:37

This time, we'll turn to precision conservation management, which is expanding its reach into Southeastern Illinois with the addition of conservation specialist Kate Baker, providing free data driven support to help local farmers make more profitable and resilient conservation decisions. Now PCM's primary goal is to assist farmers in their efforts to make economically viable conservation decisions based on real life unbiased farmer data. The program's operated by the Illinois Corn Growers Association in conjunction with University of Illinois researchers. Farmers in Southeastern Illinois interested in enrolling in precision conservation management can fill out an interest form to get started and connect with Kate for personalized data driven support. Look for the story about Kate Baker at precisionconservation.org to learn more.

Todd Gleason: 11:33

Now for something a little bit different that will require some work on your part, but not much. I'm going to ask you to visit willag.org. Am a big fan of the consumer electronics show. That's CES. It takes place each and every January in Las Vegas.

Todd Gleason: 11:51

It's been keynoted by companies like John Deere, and this year, another Illinois keynoted CES, Caterpillar. I have posted that keynote to our website. Again, willag.org. You can watch the whole thing. But I thought you might be interested to hear what Joe Creed, who's the CEO of Caterpillar, had to say at the very beginning of his presentation.

Joe Creed, CEO Caterpillar: 12:14

Question. I wonder how many of you came to the show this morning because you're wondering, why is Caterpillar of all the companies here on the stage keynoting CES? When most people think about CES, they think about what's on the surface, whether that's new devices that you all have in your pocket that you're going to see this week, new chips, new screens, things you can hold in your hand or download in seconds. And when people most people think about Caterpillar, they think about something very different. Big yellow machines that do the hard work of building the world's infrastructure.

Joe Creed, CEO Caterpillar: 12:48

So to me, I think it's a fair question. Why are the big yellow machines here with the tech heavyweights? And the short answer is this, the digital world depends on a physical layer most people never think about. Every device in this room that you have depends on minerals that had to be pulled from the ground. Every data center behind the AI you're going to see this week you're going to hear about this week was constructed from the ground up and it stays online with power systems that provide reliable electricity.

Joe Creed, CEO Caterpillar: 13:18

Every road, every port, every power line connecting our economy had to be built. That's the invisible layer of the tech stack, the physical foundation for modern technology. And that, it doesn't happen without Caterpillar.

Todd Gleason: 13:33

And Joe Creed, CEO at Caterpillar says his company is taking AI autonomy and analytics out of the cloud and into the fiscal layer at Caterpillar, and that's what he talked about at CES as he keynoted that event this week. Again, you can watch it on our website at willag.org. Let's turn our attention to the weather forecast now. Eric Snodgrass is here. He's with Nutrient Ag Solutions and Agrabal.

Todd Gleason: 14:12

Hi, Eric. Thanks much for being with us. I think we've got a lot of ground to cover. I do want to start in The United States. It seems like we've had a really weird temperature pattern.

Todd Gleason: 14:22

I'm used to a January thaw, not long ones, and this one kinda has come and stuck around. We had early snows. It's been warm. It's been super cold. Just an oddball winter so far, I believe.

Eric Snodgrass: 14:35

It is. But, I mean, we're from Illinois. This is kinda how we roll. Right? I mean, it's just we expect to see a lot of chaos here.

Eric Snodgrass: 14:42

But, you know, it's funny you bring that up, Todd. Think about it this way. A lot of times when we're thinking about our temperatures in the middle of winter, we focus on Alaska first. We just tend to get the opposite of Alaska. So every time that we've gone over very mild, Alaska has been just absolutely pounded with record breaking cold in some places.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:02

And then have you heard about all the snow that's hit parts of Alaska, including Juneau, which typically doesn't see much snow. Have you seen any of that lately? No. Yeah. 80 inches of snow.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:13

80 inches of snow, and it's gonna rain on top of that very, very soon. So that's what's important to understand. When Alaska went over so cold is when we keep seeing these mild interludes, and we've had some very, very warm conditions here. If you look at The United States since the start of winter, okay, so let's start December 1, you'll notice that the northern tier of The US through the Great Lakes and off to the Northeast, they're still averaging cooler than normal. So don't forget, we did have big snows around Thanksgiving.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:41

We had the big snow event in mid December. We've already seen some Arctic temperatures get in here, but what many people are remembering is how mild it is. And the farther west you go, the more mild it's been. I looked this morning at Hays, Kansas. So this is kinda right in the middle of winter wheat territory.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:56

And since the start of the new year, okay, we're not that far in, they've already picked up over 40 GDDs. We don't talk about GDDs usually until, you know, March and April, but that's how warm it's been out there. And I was in San Antonio two days ago. It's 85 degrees. And I I mean, I was sweating down there.

Eric Snodgrass: 16:14

I was ready to come back. So, yes, what an odd pattern. But, Todd, you know, that's normal. Don't get used to it. We are expecting for a channel to reopen as we approach the January with more Arctic air coming out of the Canadian Prairie.

Eric Snodgrass: 16:28

It's not now. We're gonna be seeing mild days continue with only very brief interludes of colder weather, but there's a pretty good signal that when we get into the third and then January, we're gonna just find ourselves back into more Arctic air. And and that's what it's gonna

Todd Gleason: 16:43

I wanna talk about that cold air or maybe the rest of the winter, but I do wanna have you comment on something. For instance, last night, just a driving windstorm, and it seems like

Eric Snodgrass: 16:55

we

Todd Gleason: 16:55

found an awful lot of wind, for this time of year, usually something I think about more as we get into March as opposed to January.

Eric Snodgrass: 17:04

Well, that temperature contrast we've been talking about, you know, just

Todd Gleason: 17:07

just a moment,

Eric Snodgrass: 17:08

it that is that is the that's the birthplace. That is what drives wind. Okay? So changes in temperature over a distance relate change relate to a change in density, which relates to a change in pressure. And long story short, you build up big pressure centers.

Eric Snodgrass: 17:23

And then we watched yesterday a deep low come out of Oklahoma, which where it produced some tornadoes, rolled right through parts of the, you know, Illinois, deepened as it did so, and the winds got I mean, my yard how much your yard? But I have a project this weekend of cleaning up all the debris. And last night, went to the Illinois Rutgers game, and on my way out, you know, I told my parents, hey. We gotta go. We gotta get to the car now.

Eric Snodgrass: 17:44

It's a break. We gotta get there. And sure enough, we took our dear sweet time. And by the time I got to the car there in Elad, one of those driving windstorms along with all that rain soaked us. But, you know, Todd, it's the winds.

Eric Snodgrass: 17:56

It was what was funny. I was walking into the rain. I was soaked completely to the bone on the front, but the entire backside of me was dry. So I sat down and was nice and dry on the backside, but completely soaked on the front. But you're right about these winds.

Eric Snodgrass: 18:09

They have been very strong this fall. And by the way, there's something neat you can do. You always wanna gauge how bad and how windy of a winter it's been, find the pin oaks and see how early in the season they lose all of their leaves. If they lose them early, you know they should in a very, very windy time frame. If they keep them till spring, winter was relatively benign.

Todd Gleason: 18:28

Interesting. Well, tight they hang on, and they must hang on tight. It takes takes a good wind to blow those off. Rest of winter. You got us through the January.

Todd Gleason: 18:40

What's the rest of it look like?

Eric Snodgrass: 18:41

Okay. So I've got a few years that are sticking out in my mind. And those years, the biggest one, the closest one I'm thinking about for January, February, March is 2018. So 2018 is a top analog for me, but I've also got 2009 and 2014 in the mix. And what those winters did was they were highly volatile, but when we accessed the cold air, we got it.

Eric Snodgrass: 19:05

It wasn't like it was just shallow and only lasted a couple of days. I think throughout the month of January, the January, and then getting into February, we are going to be able to see more clipper systems delivering more colder air. Now that's great if you have a snowmobile and you wanna go vacationing up north, but it's not. It's not the right setup to get southwest flow. Now southwest flow is what gives us the big weather systems that can come through and just deliver rain, deliver moisture, deliver snow, big time snow.

Eric Snodgrass: 19:33

You get flood of the Northwest, they're cold, dry clippers. And as a result, we tend to not really budge our drought monitor at all going forward. And that's a concern, which means we're gonna have to wait till spring rains get here in order to cure that. And by the way, Todd, those years I gave you, they were not overly wet springs. In fact, most of the years in our analog package going into this dying La Nina and this building El Nino are a bit drier in spring, which is not a bad thing as long as you get summer thunderstorms.

Todd Gleason: 20:04

In South America, quick update.

Eric Snodgrass: 20:06

Yeah. So the South Americans are paying just as close attention to this rapidly decaying La Nina. I do mean rapidly decaying. We could be talking about our spring, their autumn already having El Nino like conditions brewing in the atmosphere. In the near term, though, they're handling it just fine.

Eric Snodgrass: 20:23

The weather patterns are such that regions that have gone over drier, well, they're getting just in time rains. And areas that need to have a little bit of a drier go to get this harvest underway across parts of Northern Brazil, they're going pretty quickly. The only about negative thing I've heard is that down in Parana, there's quite a bit of interest interest in understanding how much southern rust is spreading, but I don't know if it's gonna be enough to put any sort of a dent in the overall story, which is right now South America's gonna hits hits some pretty big numbers, I think, this year.

Todd Gleason: 20:52

Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it.

Eric Snodgrass: 20:54

Yeah. You bet.

Todd Gleason: 20:54

That's Eric Snodgrass. He's with NutriNag Solutions, and Daggerable helped us to wrap up this Friday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media.