Jan 12 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It's the January 2026. It's USDA report day. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.

Todd Gleason: 00:12

Coming up, we'll talk about this morning's report with Curt Kimmel of agmarket.net. We'll check the agricultural news for the afternoon, and, of course, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mark Russo of Averstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, a public medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 00:45

March corn for the day settled 24 and a quarter cents lower at $4.21 and a half. The May at $4.30 and a half, down 23 and a quarter in December, down 12 and a half cents at $4.51 and a half. The March beans at $10.49, down 13 and a half cents. May at $10.61 and three quarters, down twelve and three quarters. November soybeans down four and three quarters of a cent.

Todd Gleason: 01:07

Settlement price there at $10.67. Bean meal down $5.40. Bean oil up 58¢. Wheat futures down 6 at $5.11 at a quarter in the March. In the soft red, the hard red at down, three and a half at $5.26 and 3 quarters of a cent.

Todd Gleason: 01:26

This morning, the United States Department of Agriculture released the final crop production figures for the twenty twenty five, twenty six growing season for corn, soybeans, and, there was also some wheat acreage numbers, the grain stocks figures, a couple of other things too. Joe Jansen, agricultural economist from the U of I and part of the PharmDoc team now joins us to talk about what was obviously a report that very few, if any, people expected to show, an increase in acreage and yield, particularly for corn. Can you talk about the numbers that USDA released this morning?

Joe Janzen: 02:03

Yeah. I think the big surprise today was the crop production numbers for 2025 that came out from the National Ag Statistics Service showing, you know, when when when a reduction in crop size was expected both for for corn and soybeans, instead showing an increase that we saw, you know, more corn harvested acres, 91,300,000 acres of corn harvested. That's sort of a slightly smaller decline than normal in terms of the the decline from planted to harvested acres. And then rather than decreasing their yield estimate for corn as many people expected, they a lot of people thought that that yield estimate was gonna come down as much as two two to four bushels per acre instead increasing it by half a bushel per acre. So the overall effect was, you know, this is gonna be the biggest corn crop in US history.

Joe Janzen: 02:53

Now over 17,000,000,000 bushels of corn harvested in 2025 in The United States. And obviously the effect on market prices is not positive. The corn market has taken the news pretty hard and dropping about 15¢ here on old crop pricing.

Todd Gleason: 03:11

So total production up two sixty nine million bushels. They did add a 100,000,000 bushels of usage to feed and residual, which I doubt many would have expected. I don't know if anybody will believe either. What do you think about that number?

Joe Janzen: 03:26

Yeah. I think that and and, again, it's it's hard to tell because that feed and residual category kind of encompasses a lot of uncertainty. We don't get, you know, objective measurement of feed use in The United States. So it's kind of this leftover number. But a lot of people expected that, you know, with a decline in production, we'd see a decline in that number, that that number was overestimated.

Joe Janzen: 03:46

And now with this huge crop, kind of some of the the excess is going into that category to kind of just, you know, work the balance sheet out. But I think there's, yeah, is a lot of uncertainty about what feed usage might be in The United States. We're not seeing obviously a massive surge in, you know, livestock numbers that would justify, you know, a bigger number there. But it the all of this corn has to go somewhere on the balance sheet. That's one of the places that that it tends to go at least until we get a better sense of of, you know, of this usage for the 2025 crop.

Todd Gleason: 04:21

So what really matters is the ending stocks. We were at 2,020,000,000 bushels. Now we're at 2,220,000,000 bushels, really 2.23. And we have a stocks to use ratio, I think, of about 13.6. That's a number that doesn't bode well going into the into the marketing year.

Joe Janzen: 04:44

Right. It it just means this market is is pretty amply supplied. And all of these kind of all of the data that we got today kind of points in the same direction. We did get a December 1 grain stocks estimate as well that showed, you know, as of December 1, of immediately after harvest, we had about 13,280,000,000 bushels of corn in storage. That compares to about 12,000,000,000 bushels a year ago and about a billion bushels more sitting on farm relative to a year ago.

Joe Janzen: 05:16

So all of that kind of, again, pointing to, you know, an amply supplied market and a corn price that to ration that has to be down in this and where we're at in this kind of low fours on the board.

Todd Gleason: 05:30

For soybeans, not as many changes, but still changes that made a difference to the marketplace and increased total production. Give me some of the numbers you've been watching.

Joe Janzen: 05:39

Yeah. I think, you know, smaller changes to US production. So there there's more soybeans around, but that all of the changes were smaller. And that The US soybean balance sheet is, you know, not exactly, you know, amply supplied or there's, you know, a ton of soybeans sitting around. But in the context of the global supply picture, these increases in US production were coupled with an increase in the estimate for Brazil's production that they've just now started to harvest here in January.

Joe Janzen: 06:11

So the USDA added 3,000,000 metric tons to Brazilian production. I think there's people saying that number could go even higher. We've just seen, you know, relatively favorable weather. No real weather issues in South America in the last couple months. And that means that that numbers had to has gone up.

Joe Janzen: 06:29

So, you know, maybe there wasn't sort of this, like, big change in US soybean production estimates. But in the context of the global supply and demand picture, it's just, you know, a re an amply supplied market as well on the soybean side. We've seen the soybean market come off here a little bit, not quite as much as for corn, but we have seen, you know, the bean market dropped about 10¢ here since the report was released.

Todd Gleason: 06:53

Yeah. So they added 9,000,000 bushels to total soybean production, which isn't very much, when you're looking at a 4,262,000,000 bushel crop to begin with. Mhmm. However, the place that they did make a change was in the exports, something we have talked about as it's related to China, down 60,000,000 bushels to 1,575,000,000. And that 60 just transitioned right into the ending stocks, going from 290,000,000 bushels to 350,000,000 bushels.

Todd Gleason: 07:28

And that also translated from USDA's perspective into a lower season's average cash price, down 30¢ this month from the last month.

Joe Janzen: 07:38

Yeah. I it certainly seems like USDA, in in a sense, wanted a do over on their December soybean price estimate. That 10 that ten fifty season's average cash price estimate kind of reflected that big surge in soybean prices that we saw through November. And since the markets come off, USDA has kind of, you know, reduced that that season's average cash price estimate. But I think the overall picture is again, you know, that demand for US soybeans is not particularly strong because of the state of the global soybean balance sheet.

Joe Janzen: 08:13

And that's, that's what's reflected in USDA's numbers today.

Todd Gleason: 08:16

Generally speaking, Joe, when these numbers come out in January, we think about them as setting the tone through the prospective plantings report, comes out at the March. How much of an impact does this have?

Joe Janzen: 08:30

I think the impact is is pretty significant. I think this kind of, in a sense, perhaps puts a ceiling on any potential price rally that we might have seen. Now we were to to generate such a rally, we'd probably need some production issues in South America because that sort of is the big kind of outstanding wildcard in the next couple of months. But this kind of, again, puts a puts a damper on all of that just because of the the the well supplied nature of of the global marketplace today.

Todd Gleason: 09:01

Thank you much. I appreciate the time you took with us today.

Joe Janzen: 09:05

Thank you, John.

Todd Gleason: 09:06

Joe Jansen is an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. Now let's turn our attention directly to the commodity markets themselves and trade in Chicago. Kurt Kimmel is here. He is with agmarket.net. Hello, Kurt.

Todd Gleason: 09:20

Thank you. I bet it was kind of a long day for you starting at 11AM central.

Curt Kimmel: 09:24

Boy, it was doing good till 11AM, and all of a sudden, the fire horse did not show any fire and doused with some water. And the fund rebalancing of funds coming in, buying corn did not show up at least today. So yes, it was a kind of a brutal day. I was fairly optimistic the market would hold in there, but that was not the case. The trade was shocker with, ending stocks being raised up to 198,000,000 bushels.

Curt Kimmel: 09:55

You know, surprise is the increase in corn yield, by half a bushel. Most analysts was looking at a little bit of reduction in yield from the standpoint. We were watching crop tours take place and particularly Western Iowa, participants coming out covered in orange and even reports of harvest, yields reflecting some lower yields there just did not happen on this report. Of course the bean carry out they went ahead and lowered the demand by 60,000,000 bushels and so therefore, they want exports so therefore carry out up over three fifty million bushels. So grain stocks report, a little higher than expected so we have plenty of inventory here near term.

Curt Kimmel: 10:43

On the technical picture, the corn, March corn was trading in a sideways pattern here for the last two and a half months for fairly good support at 4.35, resistance at around 3.55. The market moving below this 4.35, 4.55, the market moving below this 4.35 opens the door to go on down and maybe test that office low of four ten. So fairly negative, moving below that sideways congestion pattern that we've seen here for the last two and half months' time.

Todd Gleason: 11:16

And it appears everybody, put their acreage in for the bridge payment at the December and, gave yields as well. And so that that that changed things a lot. We have to look forward to the prospective planting report. It is three months out. But as we talked with Joe Jansen, this next three months usually has given its tone by today's announcements from USDA.

Todd Gleason: 11:39

Does this mean we have a sideways to lower marketplace looking forward, or how do you see it developing over time?

Curt Kimmel: 11:45

As far as price goes, it's going to be awful hard to get some bullish to the upside. The South American forecast is leaning to the drier side. We are seeing, the Brazilian and Argentina forecast, starting to be eager to push fast forward to see submarines, do develop. We're in there entering their major crop development. There will be some early harvest activity take place, but it's it's a long drawn out harvest.

Curt Kimmel: 12:13

But also Southern Hemisphere, they're going be quite a bit cheaper here, so the trades looking for most of the demand to move to the Southern Hemisphere. And two, on the supply demand balance sheet in the world situation, there's this idea that China won't be any hurry at all coming forward to buy additional, beans particularly at 25,000,000 metric tons once they, complete the nearby, commitment of 12,000,000 metric tons. So we got supply, the demand still kind of questionable, and we got even more world supply of grain coming on the market here as we move into the spring.

Todd Gleason: 12:52

USDA did increase production size for the soybeans as well, though it was just 9,000,000 bushels. They did, however, take 60,000,000 bushels out of the exports. Those got transitioned right into the ending stocks, so that went up 60,000,000 bushels from 290 to three fifty million bushels. They dropped the season's average cash price by 30¢. The marketplace seemed to take that fairly well though.

Curt Kimmel: 13:17

Yeah. You know, you're right. The nice week has stayed below 300,000,000 bushels, but for some reason this bee market continues to hang in there much better than expected. The March beans finished today at $10.49 You know, for a large supply of beans you think would be below $10, which could happen here if we don't, see see demand, continue to come forward here, on a timely fashion. There's a lot of market in front of us.

Curt Kimmel: 13:47

We'll see how the, demand picture unfolds here, particularly in corn with this, lower going here, that's a function of the market to move lower to stimulate some demand. There will probably be a little follow through, selling interest take place, So we should be hopefully in a position here to have some type of day cap bounce here to give us some opportunities to get caught from some cash sales.

Todd Gleason: 14:12

And you're hoping for a turnaround Tuesday then tomorrow?

Curt Kimmel: 14:15

Well, I need to call Wayne up this afternoon and order that. Yes, sir.

Todd Gleason: 14:21

Indeed. Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.

Curt Kimmel: 14:25

You bet. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 14:26

You too. That's Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net. Join us here on the closing market report on this USDA report day. In today's agricultural news, we'll start in Washington DC where president Trump has not yet endorsed year round e 15 legislation, something one supporter argues could finally make such sales a reality and dramatically improve farmers' fortunes.

Todd Gleason: 14:55

Iowa senator Chuck Grassley, of course, says Trump's support for year round e 15 sales could be a legislative game changer. The president asked an Iowa corn goer about the importance of greenlighting summertime e 15 sales at Trump's recent announcement of Farm Aid.

Trump News Conference: 15:11

I think e 15 is a big deal. E 15 is a great deal year round.

Todd Gleason: 15:15

Grassley was asked about the president's uncertainty during a press call last Thursday.

Chuck Grassley: 15:19

I want you to know that I'm in regular contact with the White House on the importance of e 15. In fact, I'll have an opportunity before the day's over to talk to people that are high up advising the president of The United States on these issues.

Todd Gleason: 15:35

Grassley says he's been told year round e 15 sales would add about $14,000,000,000 to farmer income compared with the $12,000,000,000 in the just approved bridge payment farmer aid and as uncertainty lingers over the administration support for another tranche of aid before improved support prices kick in next fall. As for a legislative solution, Grassley, he's not in favor.

Chuck Grassley: 16:01

I think you would have to write on some other bill to get done, and it should write on another bill. We shouldn't have to spend a single minute talking about e 15 in the floor of the United States senate. We shouldn't have to worry about getting 60 votes to get it up and all that sort of stuff.

Todd Gleason: 16:19

Again, that was Iowa US senator Chuck Grassley. Let's stay in Washington DC where agricultural policy analyst say 2026 could mark the end of traditional five year US farm bills as lawmakers struggle to produce comprehensive legislation. The most recent Farm Bill provisions expired in 2023, and congress has extended them annually since leaving perennial programs in limbo. Experts say shifting political priorities and partisan divides have complicated efforts to craft a broad farm policy package that addresses commodity supports, conservation, nutrition, and rural development. And without a full farm bill, many programs are funded through short term fixes delaying long term planning for producers.

Todd Gleason: 17:06

Agricultural advocates warn that prolonged uncertainty could impact crop insurance, disaster assistance, and trade programs. Some lawmakers are calling for scaled down legislation focusing on critical elements while stakeholders stress the need for stability in federal agricultural policy. And finally today, global food prices have dipped, but 2025 still shows year over year gains at according to the UN. World food prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in December, but overall 2025 food cost remained higher than the previous year, reports the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. The FAO's food price index, which tracks a basket of key commodities, dropped its lowest point since January 2025, reflecting easing cost pressures for staples as markets adjusted.

Todd Gleason: 17:58

Dairy prices led the December decline with a 4.4% drop, driven by the increased cream availability in Europe, while meat and cereal prices also pulled back slightly from earlier highs. Despite the recent declines, prices per minute categories remained elevated for the full year, dairy up more than 13%, meat up about 5% compared to 2024. Vegetable oil prices stayed at multi year highs amid tight supplies, and cereal prices rose modestly on concerns over Black Sea export constraints. The FAO says ongoing geopolitical instability and strong global demand continue to influence markets. And that's a quick look at today's agricultural news.

Todd Gleason: 18:53

Let's take a quick look at the weather forecast on this Monday afternoon. Mark Russo is here. He is with Eberstream Analytics. Hello, Mark. Thanks for being with us.

Mark Russo: 19:02

Hello there, Todd. Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: 19:03

Let's start here in The United States. January has been kind of warm. Is it gonna stay that way?

Mark Russo: 19:10

It does look to stay that way for a few more days, this milder pattern and generally jet, zonal or west to east jet stream flow is gonna keep things mild for another three to four days. After that, though, things do look to change, and a return of Arctic air here into the Midwest and for much of the Northern And Eastern US is expected.

Todd Gleason: 19:31

Can you tell me about snow across the Midwest and what it looks like this year in comparison to previous years?

Mark Russo: 19:38

Yeah. So far this winter season, there's been a snow surplus in and around the Midwest, especially around the Great Lakes and on into the Northeast. And but outside of that, though, it's been a snow deficit. Much of the Western US into the Southern US, although their normals in the Southern US are very low. But the abundance of snow has really been focused on the Midwest and Great Lakes, especially the Northern portion of the Midwest.

Todd Gleason: 20:08

Just a division of temperature, or is there precipitation changes in that mix as well?

Mark Russo: 20:14

Primarily, just from a snow standpoint. When when you factor in rain, it's been it's been a bit more mixed. In general, the Northern US has been more active with liquid precipitation. But then down south, it's actually been the polar opposite. It's been really dry across much of the Southern US from the Southern Plains all the way eastward to the Southeast Ag Belts.

Todd Gleason: 20:42

When the Arctic air comes in, how cold will it be, and where will it land mostly?

Mark Russo: 20:47

Yeah. Right now, the Arctic cold does not look overly extreme here, but it is going to be directed primarily from, you know, call it the Northern Plains through the Midwest on into the Northeast. And temperatures here right now, it doesn't appear that here in the in in Illinois, we'll be dropping below zero Fahrenheit, but certainly getting into at least more minimum temperatures in the teens, maybe a few mornings coming up this weekend and next week in the single digits. But right now, the Arctic cold does not look overly extreme.

Todd Gleason: 21:22

Does that change come with snowfall as well or not?

Mark Russo: 21:25

Not that much snow is on the horizon. There will likely come from a computer model guidance standpoint, models are not suggesting any kind of big winter storms, but it looks like in this type of pattern, it could get into some clippers at times. And so that's gonna be something to watch primarily across the Northern And Eastern Midwest. But right now, at least no big winter storms for the next ten days.

Todd Gleason: 21:51

Are there things you're watching in South America that might be of concern to the crops?

Mark Russo: 21:55

No big concerns right now across any portion of South America. The only thing that we're watching is the drier southern acreage within Argentina, namely Buenos Aires and La Pampa, where soil moisture has been in a decline. There are some minor opportunities for improvement coming up, we're not seeing a pattern that would allow for major replenishment in soil moisture. And from a temperature standpoint, especially for any corn going through pollination over the next couple of weeks, there's no sustained or extreme heat waves, but temperatures will be marginally above normal on several days. So that combined with the soil moisture situation likely start to increase crop stress across the Southern Belt, but you're not talking about anything overly extreme right now.

Todd Gleason: 22:45

Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week. You're welcome, Todd. That's Mark Russo. He is with Aberystreem Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media Online on Demand at willag.org, willag.org, or search it out by name.

Todd Gleason: 23:03

Closing Market Report in your favorite podcast applications. I'm Extensions, Todd Gleason. Doctor.