Jun 02 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the June 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

He's at agmarket dot net. We'll discuss a broader context of the marketplace, particularly as it's related to some of the Trump administration policies and where markets might be headed with Ed Asad, agricultural economist from the University of Minnesota with extension there. And as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mark Russo at Avverstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media, it is public radio for the farming world. Before we get started, a personal invitation for you to join us tomorrow at eleven a.

Todd Gleason: 00:50

M. For another of the PCM webinars. This time around we'll be celebrating ten years of data collection. Gary Schnitke along with Laura Gentry will take a look at ten years of PCM data and discuss what actually pays on your farm particularly as it refers to tillage. You'll want to join us at eleven a.

Todd Gleason: 01:11

Tomorrow. Check out willag.org or farmdocdaily.illinois.edu under the webinar section there for all the links to sign up for tomorrow's webinar. That's ten years of PCM data at 11AM central with Gary Schnitke, Laura Gentry, and myself. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Kurt Kimmel of AgMarket.net now joins us to take a look at what happened in Chicago on this Monday.

Todd Gleason: 01:39

Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us today.

Curt Kmmel: 01:41

Well, glad to be here again. I can't believe it's June already again.

Todd Gleason: 01:45

Yeah. It's June already. That means we have a WASDE report, which nobody will care about unless there's something big in it, but also an acreage report, which everybody will be looking forward to and estimating. You can talk about that if you want, but why don't you start with what happened over the weekend and how that impacted trade last night and throughout the day today?

Curt Kmmel: 02:07

Well, we had some, overnight early morning optimism, particularly in the the wheat sector, just, world wheat conditions are starting to get a little bit of a hint as there's some dry weather. It also helped, not help, the trade was focused on the smoke, coming out of Canada, forest fires just kinda not totally related, but kinda emphasizing the dry Canadian wheat, situation. That did put wheat up quite a bit overnight and earlier this morning, business that trade went on, wheat kinda failed to help pull corn and beans up out of the negative territory as beans particularly was kind of focused on just not a whole lot of progress with US Chinese trade relations. Corn also kind of struggled on the idea that South American and Brazilian corn crops are a little bit larger than the crop report here. Coming up, we'll probably show maybe a slightly higher production estimate there along with ideas and maybe some of this corn export news could slow.

Curt Kmmel: 03:16

As you mentioned, acreage report in a month here, there's some ideas, maybe a few more corn acres in the Western Belt, but then we're hearing maybe Ohio and some of these wetter areas losing some corn acres maybe going to beans and there probably be some prevent to plant into that mix. We'll have some numbers here as we move in more in the month, but more on the progress and conditions will be this afternoon at 03:00. Corn's estimated to be about 93%, planted as a nation. Conditions, average tray gas is 69% good to excellent, but, the team kind of feels we might be just a little bit better than that, maybe in the low seventies. Soybeans, 85% complete as a nation.

Curt Kmmel: 04:08

We'll see our first soybean conditions estimate. An average trade guess is about 67% good to excellent there, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 04:17

The trade has been looking towards Washington as there is always information that impacts agriculture coming from the nation's capital. There have been three different Trump administration officials that have said that president Trump will meet with Xi Jinping by phone, that is, at some point yet this week. Though it appears to me that the trade is saying show me the money before it before it takes that really to heart. And then if it does come to fruition, I wonder how close they'll get to a trade agreement or whether they'll what they might find as the trade, taking any side on what might happen, this week between The United States and China?

Curt Kmmel: 05:04

Well, the, analog or AI or black box headline news will will take hold of it short term to push the market, but as the average person, I think it's kind of numb right now, because it is subject to change, subject to change about any time either during the day or the middle of the night. So I think we're kinda dug into a back seat, see how things unfold and see what's gonna be implemented to police or monitor the situation. But it's critical for our relationship with Chinese on the bean side to see some type of negotiation or progress here prior prior to harvest because we don't want to miss our prime export window here, beans to Asia, from this fall into early winter because then we'll see most of that demand shift to the Southern Hemisphere. So not only the news but the timing and how it's going to be implemented will be watched closely there Todd.

Todd Gleason: 06:11

As we wrap up in the last minute and a half here, take a quick look at the livestock sector for me. There were recent cattle and feed numbers that were out, and of course, we're watching poultry numbers, eggs recover some, and such things.

Curt Kmmel: 06:27

Yeah. The the thing there continues to be front and center is the cattle complex. We just got a huge divergence, difference between the cash market and the futures market. We're seeing as much, you can look at the fats and the feeders, as much as $10 to $20 difference there. Cash fundamentals are fairly strong, but the board's just not cooperating and firming up.

Curt Kmmel: 06:51

As a hedger, it's great because you got a short hedge on, you got the cash at a premium. Then one other quick note here before we wrap up, the exchange did come in and changed the options, the strike prices, the upfront particularly, the short dated options are once in increments, upfront corn's 2¢ between the strike price, a little further out a nickel. And the significance of that is not really anybody in the trade was expecting this to happen. It's kind of a surprise that they did this all at once. So the exchange kinda did what they wanna do without advertising that way ahead of of time, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 07:31

Hey. Thank you much, Kurt.

Curt Kimmel: 07:32

Take care.

Todd Gleason: 07:32

You too. Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net. In agricultural news for the day, we'll just check-in with the National Corn Growers Association where the president there, Kenny Hartman Junior, says there's a whole lot of irons in the fire.

Ed Ussett: 07:50

One of the things that we've been on top of is concerns with tariffs. But at the same time, with concerns of tariffs, we're hoping that the Trump administration works on some trade agreements. We've been talking for the last couple of months. We've been pushing India. India is a growing population.

Ed Ussett: 08:05

They're trying to work on cleaning their environment up with ethanol. So we feel like that's a great place where the president can work with to work on a trade agreement with ethanol and with corn and with dry distillers grain. And not only on the tariff side of it, but also on the concerns that they're not very friendly to biotech products. So we're hoping that we can work some things out there.

Todd Gleason: 08:25

Hartman, a farmer from Illinois, says there are several other market opportunities for US corn.

Ed Ussett: 08:30

Vietnam's an opportunity. Indonesia, Philippines, all these Asian countries are opportunities. And then there's some opportunities that we feel like in the Africa area too. So that's something that we're really concerned with and working on.

Todd Gleason: 08:43

The NCTA is also deeply concerned about the fallout from the MAHA report.

Ed Ussett: 08:48

Obviously, the latest thing that's happened is the MAHA report. We have very much concerns there because there's a lot of products and the products that have been named as atrazine and glyphosate that we've been using for many years that's very instrumental in crop protection when it comes to raising crops. We hope that when they talk about studying this, that they don't try to take some of these products away from us. So there's a concern there. And and we're also very much reaching out with the MAHA group that we we'd like to be participating in some of these studies and finding out more about how they're gonna go about this because these products like atrazine and glyphosate have been studied for many, many years, and now we're gonna start all over, it sounds like.

Ed Ussett: 09:23

So that's some frustration there.

Todd Gleason: 09:25

And finally, the president of the National Corn Growers Association says the reconciliation process done in congress, it's a big concern.

Ed Ussett: 09:34

Reconciliation concern with that. There's parts of the farm bill that we're looking at when it comes to title one that's in the house side. There's some things there that are very supportive with that. We have concerns about some of the things that normally goes in a farm bill that would not be in this.

Todd Gleason: 09:49

That was Kenny Hartman junior of the National Corn Growers Association. He came to us courtesy of Laurie Boyer. She is a member of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason, extension agricultural economist from University of Minnesota at USSET now joins us to discuss the marketplace. Hi, Ed.

Todd Gleason: 10:24

Thank you for being with us again.

Ed Usset: 10:25

Good morning. Good morning, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 10:28

Well, let's talk about, the weekend and what's been happening with the Trump administration as it relates to trade, there are three things. One of them is not quite trade related, but in the process. So the president and the administration saying that the Chinese did not meet whatever trade agreement was made, and so they pulled back on that. They also are imposing more a 50% tariff on

Ed Usset: 11:00

The steel.

Todd Gleason: 11:01

Steel. Yeah. And then, of course, Pete Hagsteth talking a lot about Taiwan, and the South China Sea. All of those things impact trade. A couple of them immediately.

Todd Gleason: 11:16

What what have you been watching most closely?

Ed Usset: 11:19

Well, I just read the quotes. You know? I think he does it on his own Trump truth social, but China has totally violated its agreement with us. So he's mad at them, and, we've been mad at them for a long time. And, he's also very critical of the EU and their you know, they wanna double he wants to double 50% you know, big increase in tariffs on steel imports.

Ed Usset: 11:49

EU, of course, they they're trying to get settled with the negotiate some tariffs, they're like, this doesn't work. You know? So we're we're at a standstill. We don't the the tariff issues are still up in the air. Trade issues are up in the air.

Ed Usset: 12:05

Trade is important, agriculture. So the markets are up in the air.

Todd Gleason: 12:09

Yesterday, on the Sunday morning shows, Trump administration officials said that they were going to tackle the China agreement, free trade agreement that is, before they do the rest of them. That one, I suppose, surprised me. Mhmm. Yeah. But if they do, it'll set things back I guess.

Ed Usset: 12:29

Well, it seems to me but they're saying they're gonna tackle the toughest one first. That's gonna be the hardest one to settle.

Todd Gleason: 12:37

Now we'll see how all that plays out. In the mean space, let's talk about the weather and the markets here in The United States. Crop is in the ground. It's growing, and it looks like we'll have pretty widespread rainfall. June's going to be off to a good start.

Todd Gleason: 12:52

What does that tell you about the marketplace?

Ed Usset: 12:54

The market's on defensive. It trades the weather. It trades today's weather, but more important, it trades that, excuse me, that outlook going out ten days, two weeks. And and

Todd Gleason: 13:07

Go ahead. You you can take take time to clear your throat. That's alright. And

Ed Usset: 13:10

you Yeah. Well, I'm I you know, we've got all this smoke coming down from Canada, so I'm having a hard time breathing.

Todd Gleason: 13:16

Oh, I see.

Ed Usset: 13:19

Things look good. Things look very good. The forecasts are good. And, you know, we've got a good looking crop here in Minnesota, and the prospects are for more good weather. And, yeah, we we have an old saying in the business that July makes the corn crop.

Ed Usset: 13:40

And it's a fun little quip, but the fact is June is just as important as July. And right now June is shaping up very nicely.

Todd Gleason: 13:48

And that probably will keep pressure on the marketplace in your opinion?

Ed Usset: 13:52

Yes. I'm looking at the December contract. It's somewhere around the $4.37, 4 30 8 this morning. Have to do you know how low the December 24 contract got last year?

Todd Gleason: 14:11

Not off the top of my head. No.

Ed Usset: 14:13

Okay. Well, it got to a low at last August of $3.87. That's 50¢ below the current market. Now I don't look at that and say that's a prediction, a good prediction for where we're going this year. But it get does open up.

Ed Usset: 14:33

You know? You say to yourself, well, is it possible we could repeat what we did a year ago? And unfortunately, yes, we could. And that's 50¢ lower.

Todd Gleason: 14:43

Well, asking for a friend, do you think there's still a seasonal possibility of a rally in this marketplace?

Ed Usset: 14:52

Absolutely. Just turn the weather hot and dry. And but but but but right. Yeah. That's what we need to make that happen.

Ed Usset: 14:59

I don't know if the trade issues well, I guess that that always looms out there a bit, but we've dealt with those uncertainties now for months. What could turn it higher is a supply issue, and that's a concern, a weather concern. We've gotta go from balmy and regular rains to no. We're gonna dry up, and we're gonna get hot. But right now, that's not the forecast.

Todd Gleason: 15:29

Okay. So producers are behind in new crop corn sales. We won't deal with old crop

Ed Usset: 15:34

Mhmm.

Todd Gleason: 15:35

At this point, but new crop, they are behind. They're gonna look at this price tag and say, I don't think so, but should they at some point pull the trigger on a portion of the crop?

Ed Usset: 15:49

Well, I tell people that, yeah, I gotta get something on the books. There are elevators out there that won't take your new crop grain at harvest if you don't have a contract with them. And everyone should be aware that that that's not everywhere. But I'm aware of that at a number of elevators in Minnesota that are saying, look. We've got only so much space.

Ed Usset: 16:15

And, yeah, we wanna take your grain at harvest, but we can't guarantee you a spot if you don't have a contract. We're gonna honor the contracts first. So so some people who are listening might wanna just double check that because maybe they know that they have to move 30,000 bushels or something at harvest. And if that's the case, they better make sure they get that price. It's, it's not gonna be fun, to price at these current levels.

Ed Usset: 16:45

But I've said, you know, that somehow I'll find a way to get to 20 to 30% priced before harvest. And, yeah, I'm just waiting for that rally, and I'm I'm running out there here,

Todd Gleason: 17:01

Todd. What about with soybeans?

Ed Usset: 17:03

Similar story. Wanna get something done. I I look at the November contract currently at around 10 in the quarter. And last year, the November 24 contract got down to $9.57, 60¢ below where it is today. Again, not a prediction, but gives you an idea that we've got downside here.

Ed Usset: 17:26

And you're gonna struggle with it, but I'd like to get something on the books. And I will be a little stubborn, wait for some rally here in the next four to five weeks, but no guarantees that shows up.

Todd Gleason: 17:40

And if you wait that long, what's the risk?

Ed Usset: 17:43

That you're at 50¢ lower in corn and soybeans, just like last year's. But those lows came later. That's always the risk, Todd, that we just might keep drifting lower.

Todd Gleason: 17:57

Thank you much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you in another month.

Ed Usset: 18:00

Okay. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 18:01

You too. Ed Asit is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. You're listening to the closing market report on this Monday afternoon. I'm U of I Extension's Tugliese. Do visit our website.

Todd Gleason: 18:13

The address is willag.org. That's willag.0rg. There you'll find our daily agricultural programming information from the crop scientists, animal scientists, and the farm doctor ag economist team right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois and USDA reports as well as the Illinois nutrient loss reduction podcast. It's all at wllag.org. And the podcast, of course, you can search out by name in your favorite podcast applications.

Todd Gleason: 18:57

Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics is here now to take a look at the forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Hi, Mark. Thanks for being with us in the Midwest. Can you summarize May for me, roughly speaking? I don't know whether that'll be really possible.

Todd Gleason: 19:14

I think it should be from east to west. And then give me maybe what your June outlook might be.

Mark Russo: 19:21

Sure. Well, first off, for the month of May, from a temperature standpoint, we did see temperatures generally cooler than normal across actually much of the eastern half of the country with some of the most anomalous temperatures being centered in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana. From a rainfall standpoint though, it was all over the board. We had at least the wettest area in the Eastern Corn Belt that was centered in Ohio, but then that quickly changed to actually drier than normal conditions, much of Illinois, Iowa, northern Missouri, and then the Eastern Part Of The Dakota is actually kind of back to more normal. So a lot of variability in terms of rainfall pattern last month.

Mark Russo: 20:06

As we look ahead here for this early to middle portion of June, we are going to see generally a near to slightly above normal rainfall pattern, especially in areas of the Central And Eastern Midwest. A little bit drier bias in the Dakotas there. And then in terms of temperatures, still a lot of temperature variability. May is anomalously cool weather. That is now over.

Mark Russo: 20:36

And at least over these next few weeks, temperatures look to average out to be close to normal. Again, there will be a few days slightly cooler than normal or even slightly warmer than normal, But over time, it averages out to be close to normal.

Todd Gleason: 20:49

And the June, you have a outlook for us?

Mark Russo: 20:54

Right now, it does look like temperatures will start, becoming a bit more anomalous to the warm side of some of the if some of recent computer model guidance holds here. Nothing is looking exceptionally hot, but a slight warmer temperature bias is forecast. And as of right now, it does look there to be opportunities for rain. Although as you go further to the West and north, that is the area more likely to see below normal rainfall, I e, the Upper Midwest Dakota's region.

Todd Gleason: 21:27

Let's check-in on some of the other places in the Northern Hemisphere in the midst of their growing season as well. Begin in Europe. Anything of note?

Mark Russo: 21:35

Yeah. Overall, Europe has had, okay conditions so far this spring, kind of similar to The US. They've had cooler temperatures here throughout the month of May, but that's starting to change. And in fact, we're actually seeing some heat and dryness develop across Southern Europe as a ridge of high pressure builds into Southern Europe. Initially, that's not of any concern, but it is something to monitor with its longevity for deeper into June or even potentially beyond.

Mark Russo: 22:06

But as of right now, there's no red flags in Europe or for that matter, the Black Sea region.

Todd Gleason: 22:12

Anything in China that we should be wary of at this point? We had been watching a large hot and dry area.

Mark Russo: 22:20

Yeah. Especially centered in the North China Plain or their southern part of their corn and soybean belt. That heat and dryness will persist this week, but it does look like next week, things will begin improving. In fact, over the past twenty four hours, we've seen model guidance shift wetter for the North China plane. And if that holds, that would provide dryness and heat relief across that key corn and soybean and, for that matter, wheat area too for starting next week.

Todd Gleason: 22:48

Thank you much, Mark.

Mark Russo: 22:49

You're welcome, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 22:50

Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. You have a great afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.