Episode Number
10367
Episode Show Notes / Description
The June 8, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report provides an assessment of agricultural commodities, upcoming USDA reports, and global weather impacts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net highlights that a recent screwworm outbreak is causing market volatility, though long-term impacts depend on the disease's spread and its effect on available cattle supplies. Kimmel also anticipates minor adjustments in the upcoming WASDE report, projecting slight decreases in new crop corn ending stocks due to old crop demand, with soybeans and wheat remaining largely unchanged.
Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University corroborates this subdued expectation for the June WASDE, noting the USDA is unlikely to revise export forecasts without concrete details from recent US-China trade agreements. Olson emphasizes the significance of the June 30th grain stocks report for tracking feed consumption and explains that recent market fluctuations are heavily influenced by index fund investors shifting capital between energy, agriculture, and the stabilizing stock market. Consequently, Olson advises producers to establish predetermined target prices rather than attempting to time volatile market swings.
Finally, Everstream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo reports that beneficial rainfall and above-average temperatures are accelerating crop development across the US Corn Belt, presenting no immediate yield threats. However, Russo warns that a returning, near-record heatwave combined with dry conditions in Western Europe poses a significant risk to their summer crops.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University corroborates this subdued expectation for the June WASDE, noting the USDA is unlikely to revise export forecasts without concrete details from recent US-China trade agreements. Olson emphasizes the significance of the June 30th grain stocks report for tracking feed consumption and explains that recent market fluctuations are heavily influenced by index fund investors shifting capital between energy, agriculture, and the stabilizing stock market. Consequently, Olson advises producers to establish predetermined target prices rather than attempting to time volatile market swings.
Finally, Everstream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo reports that beneficial rainfall and above-average temperatures are accelerating crop development across the US Corn Belt, presenting no immediate yield threats. However, Russo warns that a returning, near-record heatwave combined with dry conditions in Western Europe poses a significant risk to their summer crops.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Transcript
cmr260608
The June 8, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report provides an assessment of agricultural commodities, upcoming USDA reports, and global weather impacts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net highlights that a recent screwworm outbreak is causing market volatility, though long-term impacts depend on the disease's spread and its effect on available cattle supplies. Kimmel also anticipates minor adjustments in the upcoming WASDE report, projecting slight decreases in new crop corn ending stocks due to old crop demand, with soybeans and wheat remaining largely unchanged.
Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University corroborates this subdued expectation for the June WASDE, noting the USDA is unlikely to revise export forecasts without concrete details from recent US-China trade agreements. Olson emphasizes the significance of the June 30th grain stocks report for tracking feed consumption and explains that recent market fluctuations are heavily influenced by index fund investors shifting capital between energy, agriculture, and the stabilizing stock market. Consequently, Olson advises producers to establish predetermined target prices rather than attempting to time volatile market swings.
Finally, Everstream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo reports that beneficial rainfall and above-average temperatures are accelerating crop development across the US Corn Belt, presenting no immediate yield threats. However, Russo warns that a returning, near-record heatwave combined with dry conditions in Western Europe poses a significant risk to their summer crops.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 8th day of June 2026. I am Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel. He is at AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. We will hear from Frayne Olson today, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University. We will discuss with him the upcoming WASDE, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, some of the supply and demand tables they will produce, and how those will be folded into the information that comes out at the end of the month related to grain stocks. We will also talk about policy with him. As we wrap up our time together, we will discuss the weather forecast with Mark Russo. He is at Everstream Analytics. All on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. The theme music was written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer and my brother, Tim Gleason.
Announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at $4.18 and 3/4 of a cent, up a penny and a quarter. September settled at $4.27 and 1/2, a half cent higher. December futures remained unchanged at $4.46. July soybeans were $11.15 and 3/4, down 5 and 3/4. August was $11.21 and 1/4, 4 and 3/4 lower. New crop November settled at $11.35 and 1/2, down 2 cents. Bean meal futures were $5.80 lower. Bean oil was up 44 cents for the day. Wheat futures for the soft red July delivery month were up 3 and 1/4 at $5.83 and 1/4. Hard red July was at $6.29 and 3/4, up 9 cents on the day. Live cattle futures were $4.92 and 1/2 lower at $236.72 and 1/2 for 100 pounds. Feeders were at $350.70, down $3.20. Lean hogs were down $1.42 and 1/2 at $97.37 and 1/2. Crude oil was $91.36 a barrel, 82 cents higher. Diesel fuel was at $3.61 and 1/10 of a cent, up 2 and 4/10. Gasoline on the wholesale price, the RBOB, was up 2 and 7/10 at $3.07 and 3/10 of a cent. Crude in the Brent was at $94.27 per barrel, $1.18 higher.
02:02 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
Todd Gleason: Now here to talk about these numbers is Curt Kimmel. He is at AgMarket.net. Hello Curt, thank you. I hope you had a great weekend.
Curt Kimmel: I am glad to be here. This is the time of year when many things are taking place. Hopefully, everybody had a good weekend and looks forward to the next few coming up.
Todd Gleason: Sometimes at the end of our conversations, you talk about the best grilling specials. I am wondering about the price of beef, or maybe you are just grilling pork chops this summer. I also want to ask about screwworm and how that has been incorporated into the trade in Chicago.
Curt Kimmel: I was in the freezer this weekend, and at the bottom, I found two bone-in ribeyes I bought last winter. They were on sale for $7.99 a pound. I wish I had bought a few more of those; it is unbelievable. To answer your question, yes, screwworm has made national news and created some volatility. Screwworm has been around for a while, but the media is taking hold of it. The short story is, if it keeps advancing, we could lose some numbers. We do not want to lose numbers due to the fact we are still looking at fairly tight fat markets, feeder numbers, and so forth. If it was extremely serious, Mexico would not have any cattle left, but they do have cattle south of the U.S. border. It is a concern, particularly if it happens to be in your herd. Grain-wise, there is concern about future demand, but it will just create overall volatility. The market is still digesting that news. It is more about the available supply of fats and feeders here in the U.S. versus consumer confidence. Hopefully, the consumer will continue to purchase beef as we move forward.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of supply and demand, crop progress reports are due out this afternoon. There probably will not be much of an update because corn was mostly planted by last week, though you can discuss that if you want. On Thursday, the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate reports are due out. What are we thinking regarding one or both of those reports?
Curt Kimmel: On the crop conditions report, we are expecting some improvement. The crops, particularly next week, will show more improvement. We are seeing some rain, perhaps too much in some areas. As far as the supply-demand balance, we will go with slightly unchanged numbers. For new crop ending stocks, the AgMarket team is looking at 1.905 billion. That is about 50 million bushels less, due to a pickup in old crop corn demand. Bean ending stocks on new crop are left unchanged at 310 million, and wheat is unchanged. It is more a function of adjusting the demand. Once we get a few more of these crop condition reports, we will start maneuvering the yield around. The second part of this afternoon's report is that many analysts use those estimates in their models to project the crop size. Even though I continue to feel it is a beauty contest rating, they still use it as an indicator. It will be interesting to see how high they bump the yield up on some estimates. The big center is weather here locally. We had an inch and a quarter of rain. North of us, amounts ranged from three to six inches. It looked like a stream train effect went across Illinois into Indiana, so some producers are dealing with too much weather. As we look forward, there are more news items on El Nino. It has been called Super El Nino, and I heard this morning that in Japan they are calling it the Godzilla El Nino. Where is Ed Keezer when we need him, Todd?
Todd Gleason: In Ohio. I have a quick question about the Middle East. What impact does it still have?
Curt Kimmel: The trade is getting worn out with that news. Crude oil is getting worn out. We are seeing some stability in the energy sector, particularly with the amount of energy we produce in the U.S. Going back to El Nino, that will affect the Southern Hemisphere if it stays intact. It is more of a concern there than in the upper U.S. Coupled with a little less fertilizer, it could spell a fairly exciting commodity market as we move into the fall. All these factors continue to be front and center, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
Curt Kimmel: Very good, take care.
Todd Gleason: That is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net and joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. You may listen to the whole program on demand at willag.org. There you will also find daily information from agricultural economists, crop scientists, and animal scientists on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.
08:37 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University with Extension, now joins us to look at the marketplace. Hello Frayne, thank you for being here. Let's start with this week's USDA report, the June WASDE World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates. What are your thoughts about this report? June is usually pretty benign.
Frayne Olson: It is usually quiet. We are getting the pre-report industry estimates, and those numbers are very close to what we saw in the May report. One reminder for everybody is that when the USDA puts together their forecasts, especially for exports, they use the trade and government policies in place at the time they run their models. The May report was run before President Trump and President Xi came up with their agreement. I really do not think the USDA will make drastic changes to their export forecasts based on that because we are still not clear on the details of the agreement. Until we get more concrete details, my viewpoint is that the June report will be quiet. I do get the question of whether the USDA will adjust export forecasts based on that agreement, and my answer is no, because we do not have enough details.
Todd Gleason: Regarding the movement of grain, in last week's crop progress report, the USDA reminded readers that they are collecting data for the grain stocks report. Those numbers come out on June 30th along with the June acreage report. They are also tabulating for the June 25th hogs and pigs report. All of that means the fundamentals matter; reports are being gathered for the end of the month, giving us a better idea of the true supply and demand.
Frayne Olson: Of the two reports coming out at the end of June, the acreage report will be hyper-focused on to see if we had adjustments from the March planting intentions between corn and soybean acreage. The quarterly grain stocks report is also important, especially for corn. The June report is important for wheat because it is the end of the marketing year, providing final official inventories. For corn, we use quarterly stocks reports as a measurement of feed consumption. We have good weekly export reports and can back-calculate the corn going into ethanol production. The big use for corn is livestock, and it is very hard to get feed numbers to balance. The quarterly stocks reports serve as a rebalancing mechanism to ensure actual consumption tracks with feed expectations. Despite market noise, supply and demand ultimately dictate pricing.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of noise in the marketplace, what do global politics and policies mean to the marketplace today?
Frayne Olson: We are still watching that. If you can tell me the weather and politics, I can closely predict the market. Right now, the political focus is primarily on the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the ceasefire status, and regional politics. Trade in energy, particularly crude oil and natural gas from that region, significantly impacts global prices. There is a connection between the energy and agricultural complexes. Some of it relates to ethanol and gasoline prices, but in the futures market, there is also a connection through the investment community. Investors use commodities in their portfolios. When the stock market drops, they reduce exposure and invest in pre-packaged commodity index funds as a temporary holding pattern. A large portion of those funds is energy, but they also include agriculture. When investors buy these indexes for energy, they automatically invest in agriculture, driving swings in the futures markets. These investors move large volumes of money quickly. The recent price rallies were partly driven by this. Now that the stock market is stabilizing and energy is settling into a trading range, investors are pulling out of commodity indexes and returning to the stock market. This selling activity drives prices down. We likely saw the pendulum swing too high on the upside, and it may be swinging too far on the low side now. Do not panic. There is a lot of the growing season left and uncertainty in international trade. We will likely have opportunities to clean up old crop sales and make new ones, but those windows will open and close fast. The hard part is deciding when to act.
Todd Gleason: Have a number in mind, put the order in at the elevator, and check to see if they fill it overnight. Volatility happens at all hours.
Frayne Olson: That has been my mantra. You are not fast enough to chase the markets, so you must get in front of them and decide at what price point you are willing to sell. It is an effective strategy.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, I appreciate it, Frayne.
Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure visiting.
Todd Gleason: That is Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University and with Extension.
17:58 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: Let's look at the weather forecast for the growing regions. We are now joined by Mark Russo from Everstream Analytics. Hello Mark, thanks for being with us. We had a nice rainfall here locally this morning; the gauge showed an inch and three-tenths. It has been warm for the first few days of June in East Central Illinois and other parts of the Midwest. Things are looking good across the Corn Belt. What is your assessment and forward-looking weather forecast?
Mark Russo: We are not anticipating any yield-threatening weather over the next few weeks. Some areas have missed out on rain while others have excess rainfall, but it is becoming more uniform. Combined with the current warmer-than-normal temperature regime, things are looking pretty good. A slower-moving system is impacting the Midwest right now, producing scattered storms and locally heavy rainfall of two to three inches. After that, they will likely see 24 to 48 hours of dry conditions. The vast majority of the Corn Belt should receive at least normal rainfall totals of an inch this week. That, combined with warm temperatures, will accelerate crop development. Next week, temperatures will shift back to normal, or slightly cooler, as a trough of low pressure settles into the central U.S.
Todd Gleason: How much above normal have temperatures been, and what are the expectations for this week?
Mark Russo: Temperatures over the past couple of days and the next four to five days will range from five to 11 degrees above average for early June. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with minimum temperatures in the 70s.
Todd Gleason: Turning to other places across the planet, Europe has been really hot.
Mark Russo: They had a historic heatwave in late May across France, England, and Spain. The first few days of June offered a respite, but another round of heat is returning to Western Europe next week. Temperatures are expected to approach record levels. It does not look like a repeat of late May, but even a few degrees cooler will result in record June temperatures. Combined with a drier pattern in Southwest Europe, such as France and Spain, it is becoming a concern for summer crops, especially corn.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You are welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That is Mark Russo with Everstream Analytics. He joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. You can also find daily information from agricultural economists, crop scientists, and animal scientists right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.
The June 8, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report provides an assessment of agricultural commodities, upcoming USDA reports, and global weather impacts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net highlights that a recent screwworm outbreak is causing market volatility, though long-term impacts depend on the disease's spread and its effect on available cattle supplies. Kimmel also anticipates minor adjustments in the upcoming WASDE report, projecting slight decreases in new crop corn ending stocks due to old crop demand, with soybeans and wheat remaining largely unchanged.
Frayne Olson from North Dakota State University corroborates this subdued expectation for the June WASDE, noting the USDA is unlikely to revise export forecasts without concrete details from recent US-China trade agreements. Olson emphasizes the significance of the June 30th grain stocks report for tracking feed consumption and explains that recent market fluctuations are heavily influenced by index fund investors shifting capital between energy, agriculture, and the stabilizing stock market. Consequently, Olson advises producers to establish predetermined target prices rather than attempting to time volatile market swings.
Finally, Everstream Analytics meteorologist Mark Russo reports that beneficial rainfall and above-average temperatures are accelerating crop development across the US Corn Belt, presenting no immediate yield threats. However, Russo warns that a returning, near-record heatwave combined with dry conditions in Western Europe poses a significant risk to their summer crops.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 8th day of June 2026. I am Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel. He is at AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. We will hear from Frayne Olson today, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University. We will discuss with him the upcoming WASDE, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, some of the supply and demand tables they will produce, and how those will be folded into the information that comes out at the end of the month related to grain stocks. We will also talk about policy with him. As we wrap up our time together, we will discuss the weather forecast with Mark Russo. He is at Everstream Analytics. All on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. The theme music was written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer and my brother, Tim Gleason.
Announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at $4.18 and 3/4 of a cent, up a penny and a quarter. September settled at $4.27 and 1/2, a half cent higher. December futures remained unchanged at $4.46. July soybeans were $11.15 and 3/4, down 5 and 3/4. August was $11.21 and 1/4, 4 and 3/4 lower. New crop November settled at $11.35 and 1/2, down 2 cents. Bean meal futures were $5.80 lower. Bean oil was up 44 cents for the day. Wheat futures for the soft red July delivery month were up 3 and 1/4 at $5.83 and 1/4. Hard red July was at $6.29 and 3/4, up 9 cents on the day. Live cattle futures were $4.92 and 1/2 lower at $236.72 and 1/2 for 100 pounds. Feeders were at $350.70, down $3.20. Lean hogs were down $1.42 and 1/2 at $97.37 and 1/2. Crude oil was $91.36 a barrel, 82 cents higher. Diesel fuel was at $3.61 and 1/10 of a cent, up 2 and 4/10. Gasoline on the wholesale price, the RBOB, was up 2 and 7/10 at $3.07 and 3/10 of a cent. Crude in the Brent was at $94.27 per barrel, $1.18 higher.
02:02 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarkets.net
Todd Gleason: Now here to talk about these numbers is Curt Kimmel. He is at AgMarket.net. Hello Curt, thank you. I hope you had a great weekend.
Curt Kimmel: I am glad to be here. This is the time of year when many things are taking place. Hopefully, everybody had a good weekend and looks forward to the next few coming up.
Todd Gleason: Sometimes at the end of our conversations, you talk about the best grilling specials. I am wondering about the price of beef, or maybe you are just grilling pork chops this summer. I also want to ask about screwworm and how that has been incorporated into the trade in Chicago.
Curt Kimmel: I was in the freezer this weekend, and at the bottom, I found two bone-in ribeyes I bought last winter. They were on sale for $7.99 a pound. I wish I had bought a few more of those; it is unbelievable. To answer your question, yes, screwworm has made national news and created some volatility. Screwworm has been around for a while, but the media is taking hold of it. The short story is, if it keeps advancing, we could lose some numbers. We do not want to lose numbers due to the fact we are still looking at fairly tight fat markets, feeder numbers, and so forth. If it was extremely serious, Mexico would not have any cattle left, but they do have cattle south of the U.S. border. It is a concern, particularly if it happens to be in your herd. Grain-wise, there is concern about future demand, but it will just create overall volatility. The market is still digesting that news. It is more about the available supply of fats and feeders here in the U.S. versus consumer confidence. Hopefully, the consumer will continue to purchase beef as we move forward.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of supply and demand, crop progress reports are due out this afternoon. There probably will not be much of an update because corn was mostly planted by last week, though you can discuss that if you want. On Thursday, the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate reports are due out. What are we thinking regarding one or both of those reports?
Curt Kimmel: On the crop conditions report, we are expecting some improvement. The crops, particularly next week, will show more improvement. We are seeing some rain, perhaps too much in some areas. As far as the supply-demand balance, we will go with slightly unchanged numbers. For new crop ending stocks, the AgMarket team is looking at 1.905 billion. That is about 50 million bushels less, due to a pickup in old crop corn demand. Bean ending stocks on new crop are left unchanged at 310 million, and wheat is unchanged. It is more a function of adjusting the demand. Once we get a few more of these crop condition reports, we will start maneuvering the yield around. The second part of this afternoon's report is that many analysts use those estimates in their models to project the crop size. Even though I continue to feel it is a beauty contest rating, they still use it as an indicator. It will be interesting to see how high they bump the yield up on some estimates. The big center is weather here locally. We had an inch and a quarter of rain. North of us, amounts ranged from three to six inches. It looked like a stream train effect went across Illinois into Indiana, so some producers are dealing with too much weather. As we look forward, there are more news items on El Nino. It has been called Super El Nino, and I heard this morning that in Japan they are calling it the Godzilla El Nino. Where is Ed Keezer when we need him, Todd?
Todd Gleason: In Ohio. I have a quick question about the Middle East. What impact does it still have?
Curt Kimmel: The trade is getting worn out with that news. Crude oil is getting worn out. We are seeing some stability in the energy sector, particularly with the amount of energy we produce in the U.S. Going back to El Nino, that will affect the Southern Hemisphere if it stays intact. It is more of a concern there than in the upper U.S. Coupled with a little less fertilizer, it could spell a fairly exciting commodity market as we move into the fall. All these factors continue to be front and center, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
Curt Kimmel: Very good, take care.
Todd Gleason: That is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net and joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. You may listen to the whole program on demand at willag.org. There you will also find daily information from agricultural economists, crop scientists, and animal scientists on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.
08:37 Commodity Markets Discussion with Frayne Olson, NDSU Extension
Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University with Extension, now joins us to look at the marketplace. Hello Frayne, thank you for being here. Let's start with this week's USDA report, the June WASDE World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates. What are your thoughts about this report? June is usually pretty benign.
Frayne Olson: It is usually quiet. We are getting the pre-report industry estimates, and those numbers are very close to what we saw in the May report. One reminder for everybody is that when the USDA puts together their forecasts, especially for exports, they use the trade and government policies in place at the time they run their models. The May report was run before President Trump and President Xi came up with their agreement. I really do not think the USDA will make drastic changes to their export forecasts based on that because we are still not clear on the details of the agreement. Until we get more concrete details, my viewpoint is that the June report will be quiet. I do get the question of whether the USDA will adjust export forecasts based on that agreement, and my answer is no, because we do not have enough details.
Todd Gleason: Regarding the movement of grain, in last week's crop progress report, the USDA reminded readers that they are collecting data for the grain stocks report. Those numbers come out on June 30th along with the June acreage report. They are also tabulating for the June 25th hogs and pigs report. All of that means the fundamentals matter; reports are being gathered for the end of the month, giving us a better idea of the true supply and demand.
Frayne Olson: Of the two reports coming out at the end of June, the acreage report will be hyper-focused on to see if we had adjustments from the March planting intentions between corn and soybean acreage. The quarterly grain stocks report is also important, especially for corn. The June report is important for wheat because it is the end of the marketing year, providing final official inventories. For corn, we use quarterly stocks reports as a measurement of feed consumption. We have good weekly export reports and can back-calculate the corn going into ethanol production. The big use for corn is livestock, and it is very hard to get feed numbers to balance. The quarterly stocks reports serve as a rebalancing mechanism to ensure actual consumption tracks with feed expectations. Despite market noise, supply and demand ultimately dictate pricing.
Todd Gleason: Speaking of noise in the marketplace, what do global politics and policies mean to the marketplace today?
Frayne Olson: We are still watching that. If you can tell me the weather and politics, I can closely predict the market. Right now, the political focus is primarily on the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the ceasefire status, and regional politics. Trade in energy, particularly crude oil and natural gas from that region, significantly impacts global prices. There is a connection between the energy and agricultural complexes. Some of it relates to ethanol and gasoline prices, but in the futures market, there is also a connection through the investment community. Investors use commodities in their portfolios. When the stock market drops, they reduce exposure and invest in pre-packaged commodity index funds as a temporary holding pattern. A large portion of those funds is energy, but they also include agriculture. When investors buy these indexes for energy, they automatically invest in agriculture, driving swings in the futures markets. These investors move large volumes of money quickly. The recent price rallies were partly driven by this. Now that the stock market is stabilizing and energy is settling into a trading range, investors are pulling out of commodity indexes and returning to the stock market. This selling activity drives prices down. We likely saw the pendulum swing too high on the upside, and it may be swinging too far on the low side now. Do not panic. There is a lot of the growing season left and uncertainty in international trade. We will likely have opportunities to clean up old crop sales and make new ones, but those windows will open and close fast. The hard part is deciding when to act.
Todd Gleason: Have a number in mind, put the order in at the elevator, and check to see if they fill it overnight. Volatility happens at all hours.
Frayne Olson: That has been my mantra. You are not fast enough to chase the markets, so you must get in front of them and decide at what price point you are willing to sell. It is an effective strategy.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, I appreciate it, Frayne.
Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure visiting.
Todd Gleason: That is Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University and with Extension.
17:58 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: Let's look at the weather forecast for the growing regions. We are now joined by Mark Russo from Everstream Analytics. Hello Mark, thanks for being with us. We had a nice rainfall here locally this morning; the gauge showed an inch and three-tenths. It has been warm for the first few days of June in East Central Illinois and other parts of the Midwest. Things are looking good across the Corn Belt. What is your assessment and forward-looking weather forecast?
Mark Russo: We are not anticipating any yield-threatening weather over the next few weeks. Some areas have missed out on rain while others have excess rainfall, but it is becoming more uniform. Combined with the current warmer-than-normal temperature regime, things are looking pretty good. A slower-moving system is impacting the Midwest right now, producing scattered storms and locally heavy rainfall of two to three inches. After that, they will likely see 24 to 48 hours of dry conditions. The vast majority of the Corn Belt should receive at least normal rainfall totals of an inch this week. That, combined with warm temperatures, will accelerate crop development. Next week, temperatures will shift back to normal, or slightly cooler, as a trough of low pressure settles into the central U.S.
Todd Gleason: How much above normal have temperatures been, and what are the expectations for this week?
Mark Russo: Temperatures over the past couple of days and the next four to five days will range from five to 11 degrees above average for early June. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with minimum temperatures in the 70s.
Todd Gleason: Turning to other places across the planet, Europe has been really hot.
Mark Russo: They had a historic heatwave in late May across France, England, and Spain. The first few days of June offered a respite, but another round of heat is returning to Western Europe next week. Temperatures are expected to approach record levels. It does not look like a repeat of late May, but even a few degrees cooler will result in record June temperatures. Combined with a drier pattern in Southwest Europe, such as France and Spain, it is becoming a concern for summer crops, especially corn.
Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You are welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That is Mark Russo with Everstream Analytics. He joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. You can also find daily information from agricultural economists, crop scientists, and animal scientists right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.