Jun 09 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the June 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel from AgMarket.net. We'll hear from Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics about the weather in The United States and in Europe.

Todd Gleason: 00:20

And along the way, we'll have a discussion about the USDA reports in the month of June with North Dakota State University Extension agricultural economist, Freyne Olson, on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at four thirty three and a half. It was nine lower.

Todd Gleason: 00:49

September at four twenty two and a quarter down 11. And December corn futures, that's your new crop, $4.38, 11 and a quarter cents lower. July beans, a penny and a quarter lower at $10.56. New crop November at $10.30 and 3 quarters of a cent, down 6 and a quarter cents. On a Monday, bean meal futures 20¢ lower.

Todd Gleason: 01:09

Bean oil futures down 12¢. Wheat futures for the soft red, twelve and three quarters of a cent lower at $5.42 a bushel. And the hard red at $5.37 and a half down 11 three quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures up 37 and a half cents finished at $219.25 per hundred pounds. Feeders at $3.11 65, a dollar 50 higher, and lean hogs were up 10¢.

Todd Gleason: 01:33

They settled at a hundred and $7.20. Crude oil $65.12 a barrel up 54¢. Diesel fuel or heating oil, a penny and a half higher, $2.14 and a tenth of a cent. And the wholesale price of gasoline today at $2.08 and 9 tenths of a cent, a penny, and 2 tenths of a cent higher. We're now joined by Kurt Kimmel.

Todd Gleason: 01:54

He's at AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Hi, Kurt. Thank you for being with us again on a Monday. What were you watching overnight, and then through the day trade today?

Curt Kimmel: 02:05

Yeah. Two separate, mindsets actually. Overnight, we were steady, a little bit affirmed. There was, you know, news that The US and China are going to get together and and are, I guess, currently talking in in in London and through here, so that gave the a little confidence. But, basically, it's gonna be a long term process and ideas they continue to talk and may talk clear into August, September, October.

Curt Kimmel: 02:32

So it's gonna be ongoing process here, but the significance of the timing on some type of agreement would need to fairly quickly here because, typically they've, this time of year, start to see purchases put on the books for shipments here, later on this fall and winter before we start to see the calendar turned, the next calendar year would be 2026 and see this business go to the Southern Hemisphere bypassing ing The U. S. Also too, China imported a record amount of soybeans for the month of May. Unfortunately, that wasn't all U. S.

Curt Kimmel: 03:14

Business, so we kind of need to make sure we have some Asian business here to keep the exports fairly strong. But as we moved into the heart of the trade here earlier this morning, the forecast is actually quite favorable. We're seeing a situation where some much needed warm weather is starting to materialize and some of those areas is wet, is trying to dry out here fairly quickly to, get some crop in the ground, particularly in the East. I've had a few discussions with guys and gals that's taken trips to this East and it's pretty well noticeable or sticks out that crops behind or just now getting into the ground in a few areas. But this afternoon's, planning progress report, expected to show, you know, some progress there.

Curt Kimmel: 04:09

We're expected to see a one to 2% improvement in the good to excellent category. So, as a whole, we're scooting right along in through here. And we'll see what those, afternoon reports, show as far as what they feel the, crop looks like.

Todd Gleason: 04:27

It appeared that wheat was leading things lower to begin with. However, corn caught up with it by the end of the day. Wheat finishing in the soft red in the July at $5.42. It was down what around twelve and three quarters of a cent. December corn 11 and a quarter lower at $4.38.

Todd Gleason: 04:47

So the loss is nearly as big there, though that cost about a dollar or more less than wheat futures. What was happening within that wheat contract? Why did it move lower?

Curt Kimmel: 04:57

Yeah, there just a combination of things. Probably the biggest thing that sticks out is we're gonna have some wheat harvest here fairly quickly, Envision with producers that wheat basis is actually really, really wide in some areas, so we're going to have, ample supplies of wheat to work with. Also, two, there's optimism that the movement out of that Black Sea region will be slowed, but it continues to trickle out. Spread activity too is more noticeable early in the day buying beans, selling wheat, buying beans, selling corn on the spread. But wheat did reach some upper end of the area of resistance trading range, same thing on corn.

Curt Kimmel: 05:42

And technically, we kind of had a really bad day from the standpoint as we made some new highs on this move and closed lower on the day, so it's gonna be important to, maybe see a turnaround Tuesday if we could have Wayne back in business here to help us out with that.

Todd Gleason: 05:59

We'll talk to Naomi, and maybe we'll check-in with Wayne to see what he says too. Naomi would like a turnaround Tuesday when we get to her tomorrow afternoon as well. One last thing, USDA reports on Thursday. Which number are you going to be watching most closely from the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate?

Curt Kimmel: 06:18

Well, the most popular one, on this re report would be the corn, number carryout. There's ideas that, we feel as an ag market team in GSA that we've, going to see that corn ending stocks drop by 50,000,000 bushels, filling net exports are 50,000,000 bushels. Same thing on the bean, carryout estimate probably two ninety million bushels, that's down about 5,000,000,000 bushels. But that's gonna be the highlight what we're watching on the domestic side as far as the Southern Hemisphere. Look for a slightly higher Brazilian corn crop when it's all said and done.

Todd Gleason: 06:59

Hey. Thanks much.

Curt Kimmel: 07:00

You bet. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 07:01

You too. Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net. Joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media, public radio for the farming world online on demand. You can listen again to Kurt at will ag dot o r g. That's w I l l a g dot o r g.

Todd Gleason: 07:22

Here's a quick reminder for farmers. There's an important date coming up as it's related to reporting this year's crop acreage. Rod Bain has more from USDA.

USDA News: 07:32

With spring crop planting nearly complete for much of the nation, USDA Farm Service Agency Administrator Bill Bee offers this reminder to growers.

Bill Beam: 07:41

After spring planting is complete, agriculture producers should make an appointment with their farm service agency office to complete their crop acreage reports before the application deadline.

USDA News: 07:51

That deadline being July 15. The importance to producers regarding crop acreage reporting is

Bill Beam: 07:57

To ensure the receipt of an important safety net or disaster assistance, conservation, and crop insurance programs, producers should file an accurate crop acreage report for all crops and land uses, including failed acreage and prevent plant acreage.

USDA News: 08:12

BMAD's reporting deadlines vary by county and by crop. Details on needed reporting documentation is available through local FSA offices or online at www.FSA.USDA.gov. I'm Rod Bain reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington DC.

Todd Gleason: 08:41

Fran Olsen, Agricultural Economist with North Dakota State University Extension, now joins us from Fargo to discuss the June USDA reports that begin this Thursday at eleven a. M. Central Time with the World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates or the monthly WASDE numbers and are followed up at the end of the month by the quarterly grain stocks figures along with the updated acreage report. Thank you, Frain, for being with us. Of those, and we can take them in order, or we could take them in order of what you believe to be the largest impacts.

Todd Gleason: 09:22

Which would you like to do?

Frayne Olson: 09:23

Well, let's take it chronologically. Because one of the things that we need to think about is from a timeline and planning horizon, you know, the markets always respond to new information. So let's let's look at it chronologically.

Todd Gleason: 09:35

Let's start then with the world agricultural supply and demand estimates or the WASDE figures. What will you be watching this month?

Frayne Olson: 09:42

The one number that everybody is still haggling over and worried about and probably most anxious about is exports number. We'll have an update for both old crop twenty four-twenty five marketing year as well as new crop, the twenty five-twenty six marketing year. The old crop numbers again based on what the trade is expecting, I really don't think we're going to see many adjustments. We're basically at the end of the wheat marketing year. We're getting very close to the, we only have a few months left in the corn and soybean marketing years.

Frayne Olson: 10:16

So our numbers at this stage are probably not going to change very dramatically when it comes to estimates, stocks or any major adjustments. The ones for new crop are a little bit different because USDA has for many, many years said that they were going to use the policies in place at the time that the estimates were made and assume that those policies continued into the future. And so when they're doing their analysis, they're doing their forecasting, those policies are put in place. And usually we think about farm policy or programs or things like that, but obviously trade policy is a big portion of it as well. Now there's been some debate and discussion about, so do they include the current proposal for tariffs or not?

Frayne Olson: 11:06

I guess based on my assessment of the forecast we got last month, because they were tariffs in place for US imports, we need to think about what are the retaliatory issues for the countries to buy from us. And those become a lot harder to try and nail down on what is actual policy versus what is proposed policy from the other country standpoint. So I really, we have not had major adjustments in the forecast for US export based, total export levels, excuse me, from basically from this current marketing year into new crop marketing year. And in my viewpoint, my opinion is that I don't think we'll see a lot of changes there either. When it comes to domestic use domestic consumption, those numbers tend to be pretty stable.

Frayne Olson: 12:03

As we get into the rest of the marketing year, or at least through the growing season, all eyes will obviously be on changes to not only acreage levels, which we'll get an update at the end of the month, but also from the production study, what is the yield and yield estimates going to be? And that's something we debate and haggle over for a whole lot, almost every year. We don't expect any changes or updates on corn and soybean yield projections. There might be some adjustments in the wheat projections, wheat yield projections because we will get some updates on planted acreage, but also more importantly the yield estimates for winter wheat specifically, the different winter wheat classes. Spring wheat will be another month or two before we get that.

Frayne Olson: 12:49

So from my perspective, I don't anticipate any shocks. I don't anticipate any major big shifts in the data we get from USDA But I've been proven wrong before and we'll just have to wait to see. But right now I think the market tone and based on the preliminary estimates coming out from the analysts and forecasters when they look at the average trade estimates, We're really looking at maybe some refinement to the numbers, but nothing dramatic.

Todd Gleason: 13:19

Let me paraphrase some of what you said about the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and the World Agricultural Outlook Board using policies that are in place. Policies, trade policies, tariffs from The United States are in place. But the retaliatory tariffs, which would be those that would impact the export of corn and soybeans into different nations, as you said, are harder to track, but really haven't been announced place. So are you concerned? And I think this is the case that if the trade issues aren't settled, that we will see those policies put in place at some point and that right now USDA is not reflecting those kinds of things in the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate?

Frayne Olson: 14:11

That is my read on it. That's my assessment of what's going on, yes. That again, we have the USS trade policy and most of that again is for the products we import. Well, the WASDE report, at least for the crops that we're most concerned about, we're the exporter. And so when we think about policy changes, it will be of those major countries so far the retaliation for any kind of US actions has been pretty minimal, has been pretty muted.

Frayne Olson: 14:45

There are some restrictions for some products going into Canada. There have not been any substantial adjustments going into Mexico. So Mexico is our number corn buyer, number one wheat buyer and our number two soybean buyer. The Chinese have put retaliatory tariffs on, but those now have been reduced much lower level. So there is a differential between the tariff rate that, for example, Brazilian soybeans have versus US soybeans under the current status quo.

Frayne Olson: 15:21

Although there, as of today, US and Chinese are meeting in London to talk about the trade situation and what that might look like moving forward, at least put some strategies together on continuing discussions. But at this time of the year, especially for both old crop and new crop, this is not really a peak sales period. We usually don't see major export sales announcements until we get closer to harvest. And then it's from harvest through about early January for export sales. That's our peak export season, especially for soybeans, but also to some degree for corn with then the shipments, the actual deliveries of that crop being made later on in the season.

Frayne Olson: 16:08

So when it comes to USDA and their forecasting systems right now, I don't know that the tariffs, the retaliatory tariffs, those tariffs that our trading partners are going to really substantially impact their modeling or their forecasting at this stage of the game. Now, obviously, as we move through the rest of the summer and this trade war and trade issues start to develop and evolve, we're obviously going to have to watch that pretty closely.

Todd Gleason: 16:39

Thank you much. I appreciate it. One last question. How are the crops in North Dakota, parts of Minnesota?

Frayne Olson: 16:44

We're we're actually looking pretty good. We we the Western portion, about the Western half of of North Dakota and into Eastern Montana was very, very dry coming. Into springs work, they made pretty rapid planting progress, but a lot of concerns about emergence. But about a week, almost two weeks ago now, we had a really nice three day rain that came through. Western North Dakota got a really good drink of water and so everything's looking fantastic out there.

Frayne Olson: 17:11

The eastern portion of the state and into Minnesota coming into spring planting, had a little bit more soil moisture coming in. Didn't quite have as much rain over the last several weeks, but it was definitely enough. We've got a really good start to the season. Unfortunately, it hasn't been enough to really recharge a lot of the subsoil layers yet. So we are going to, we've got a reprieve here.

Frayne Olson: 17:33

We're going to be good for a few weeks. But as we get into late June and into July, we're going to need some more to be able to pull us through to the rest of the end of the year.

Todd Gleason: 17:41

Thank you much, Frane. We'll talk with you again next month.

Frayne Olson: 17:44

Alright. Appreciate it. I always always enjoy visiting.

Todd Gleason: 17:47

Frane Olson is an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University Extension. Listening to the closing market report on this Monday afternoon. I'm Illinois Extension's Tugliesen. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand whenever you'd like to listen to us. You can do that at willag.org or search us out in your favorite podcast applications.

Todd Gleason: 18:09

Even look us up in the NPR app. Let's take a look at the weather forecast now with Mark Russo. He's at Everestream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Thanks for being with us again on this Monday.

Todd Gleason: 18:32

Let's jump right into it with Corn Belt weather. What can we expect this week and next week?

Mark Russo: 18:38

Well, in general, for this week, we see seasonal temperatures that then look to switch to some warmer than normal readings next week, but we're not seeing any sign of any extreme heat here in the Corn Belt looking out over the next several weeks. And then in terms of precipitation, in general, most of the Midwest will see close to normal rainfall the next two weeks, but there is a zone that extends from Eastern Nebraska through Iowa and here into Illinois that will be drier than normal or will not have as good opportunities compared to the rest of the belt. And in a place specifically like Iowa, which has missed out on rainfall, significant rainfall, and has been generally drier than normal over the past thirty days or so, that's the area to monitor and keep an eye on, with these upcoming rainfall chances and see how those rains perform. Do they perform as expected or disappoint?

Todd Gleason: 19:39

It looks to me as I look at some of the rainfall over the last seven days in Iowa, that it is the Cedar Falls, Iowa City kind of area that has been dry. Are there other places, or is that the primary issue?

Mark Russo: 19:54

That's been the prime that that is the primary issue right now. Again, that's not a problem now, and been favorable for rapid planting across that area. But obviously, if it persists for an extended period of time, it will stress crop development. But of all the Midwest, at least from a dryness standpoint, that is the only area right now to keep an eye on.

Todd Gleason: 20:16

And it is a prime producing area, so we'll have you help us watch with that. Next week, do things change very much?

Mark Russo: 20:23

Not much here. Again, there will be some rainfall opportunities here, and more so Northern Iowa versus Southern Iowa. But for the state overall, that's an area, again, that could miss out with some of those rains.

Todd Gleason: 20:39

Anything we should be watching in the last two weeks of June in The United States?

Mark Russo: 20:44

Well, the main item we're watching, not only the last two weeks of the month, but then more importantly as we get into July is where will the ridge of high pressure be aligned? Where will what what what will be its intensity? And does it look to, yeah, basically become anchored over any one area? And at least looking out into late June, we're not seeing any indications of it locking down in any one area, especially, you know, in and around the the Corn Belt. So because of that, right now, late June also looks to feature generally favorable weather.

Todd Gleason: 21:20

What are you watching in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of The US?

Mark Russo: 21:23

Yeah. For the Southern Plains hard red winter wheat, Paul, they've been really wet and stormy, and that's becoming a concern here for quality and delays in crop harvesting. They're still on the wetter side this week, especially in areas of Southern Oklahoma and Texas, but that does look to change here. And over time, late this week and into next week, the pattern looks to become much quieter across the bell, and that is needed given the wetness of late.

Todd Gleason: 21:52

And are there anything I'm sorry. Is there anything of interest in Western Or Eastern Europe that we should be aware of?

Mark Russo: 21:59

Yes. We are seeing areas of below normal rainfall expand across more of Western And Southern Europe, and also temperatures in those areas, especially Southwest Europe, will be warmer than normal. It's really the first heat wave and ridging episode of the summer, and that's not a problem right now because soil moisture is adequate. But with soil moisture decreasing over the next two weeks, it's definitely an area to keep an eye on.

Todd Gleason: 22:23

We'll talk with you again next week. Thank you.

Mark Russo: 22:26

You're welcome, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 22:27

Mark Russo is with Avastream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, public media, public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org where you can find our daily agricultural programming to listen to anytime you like. Just click and play from the website or search out the closing market report commodity week and the Illinois nutrient loss reduction podcast in your favorite podcast applications. Oh, and on that homepage at willag.org, you'll find information from the agricultural economist, the farm doc team, the crop scientist, as well as the animal scientist. I'm right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the Ovi. I'm Extensions, Todd Gleason.