- #Soybean & #Corn Germplasm Collections Imperiled
- More of Brazil's Safrinha Corn Used Domestically
From the Land deGrant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the June 2025. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing. I'll bring you up to speed on the latest agricultural news, including a move in Washington DC from the Trump budget that would close the USDA ARS lab here.
Todd Gleason: 00:22That's the one that's responsible for the national soybean germplasm collection and the maize or corn genetics germplasm as well both have been important in discoveries over the decades as it's related to the improvement of those two crops and then as we close out our time together I'll talk to you a little bit about the weather forecast for the day and along the way I'll bring you up to speed on yesterday's USDA crop progress reports as well on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by And rest is at $5.27 and a quarter down $10.25 Both of those in the July contracts. July soybeans at $10.57 and 3 quarters up a penny and three quarters. November at $10.31 and a quarter a half cent higher. The bean meal futures, finished up 40¢.
Todd Gleason: 01:30The bean oil, 41¢ higher, and the live cattle futures were down a buck and a nickel. Feeder cattle were a dollar 50 higher and 30¢ lower, and the lean hogs for a 100 pounds for the afternoon. Crude oil at $65.11 a barrel down 17¢, and gasoline about 4 tenths of a cent lower. Naomi Bloom now joins us from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. It's been a busy week already, Naomi, and you're here on a turnaround Tuesday.
Todd Gleason: 02:01Yesterday, the corn market posted an outside down day or a higher high for the trade, a lower, low for the trade than on Friday, and a lower close. But today, a hookup, meaning it had a lower low, and it's managed to close a bit higher for the day. So, technically, I guess, a better sign. What are you seeing in the marketplace?
Naomi Blohm: 02:21Yeah. Just a lot of, like you said, back and action. Like, you know, one day you look at a weather forecast and it feels like it's a slam dunk where we're gonna have this big crop. And then the next day, take a step back and say, you know, demand might be stronger than anticipated. You know, what if we see the USDA report on Thursday supportive for old crop, in terms of smaller ending stocks that would then relate to smaller carry in for the new crop.
Naomi Blohm: 02:46And, of course, plenty of summer to get through as it's only June 10. We still have about 3,000,000 acres of corn yet to be planted. And so there's there's just enough uncertainty out there right now that the market is maybe gonna hang in there to see what Thursday's USDA report has to say. And then we go into the the other reality that we're waiting to hear news out of London where The US and China have trade delegates meeting to try to hash out some sort of an agreement. The news out of that meeting has been very tight lipped for the last two days.
Naomi Blohm: 03:19We haven't heard bad news. We haven't heard good news. So when you look at grain markets, when you look at outside markets, it's almost like we're we're waiting for a combination of the USDA report, waiting for news out of London in order to get some fresh price direction.
Todd Gleason: 03:33On that note, soybeans, five of the last six trading days, including today, had a higher close. I guess an expectation is that something good might come out of what's happening in London. What other possibilities are you thinking about as it relates to soybeans and, the fundamentals behind that marketplace?
Naomi Blohm: 03:56Well, know that The US market has tight US supplies for old crop and, of course, potentially for new crop with the lower planted acres. We're still trying to get a better idea on demand, in terms of what that might be for biofuels and, of course, with exports, waiting to see from London if there's any hope that we see China come in and buy product from The United States? Or are they gonna just wait until late August when we oftentimes naturally see a harvest low start to occur, and do they buy later on down the road? The the bean market has been trading in such a fashion where it's been consolidating. And if you use your imagination when you're looking at these charts, you could argue that it's making the right shoulder of a head and shoulders formation and that potentially, if we don't get any big fresh new news or if the trade talks go sour, you could argue that prices might dry drop down towards that $9.80 price point.
Naomi Blohm: 04:51So we're in a wait and see pattern. The only thing I can encourage producers to do is just kinda be ready for anything to unfold. Seasonally, things usually go lower. However, if we can get some better demand to this, well, things might hang in there for a little while longer. And then, of course, we're watching weather this summer.
Naomi Blohm: 05:08So, be on your toes. We'll probably have a lot of volatility as this week progresses for prices.
Todd Gleason: 05:15And then there is the wheat market, which did not post a turnaround Tuesday, two days of downward movement in that marketplace. Is it simply harvest pressure that's beginning to come in to the wheat futures, soft red and hard red?
Naomi Blohm: 05:30Yeah. It's partly that. We had crop progress ratings, and it said that the spring wheat crop was 53% good excellent, up three points from the week prior. So that along with harvest pressure starting to weigh on things, and technically, we went below some of those supportive moving averages. And so if that can continue, the selling pressure continues, we could see maybe another 20¢ move lower on wheat.
Naomi Blohm: 05:55So we'll be watching for any news, of course, out of the Black Sea region in terms of war with Russia, Ukraine, but also it still is a little bit on the drier side in that area, so we wanna keep an eye on their production numbers as well. So, again, the volatility is just continuing to spread across the grain complex. Looking at the live cattle market today, at one point, live cattle were down $3, and then they came rip roaring right back on news of better box beef values at midday and ideas that cash would firm potentially this week. So the market summer volatility is here, and I don't think that we're going to see quiet markets. I think we're going to see a lot of price action higher and lower as this week progresses for all of these commodities.
Todd Gleason: 06:37I did see a quote in one of the news services today where producers were saying, oh, what a time to be a cattle producer. I suppose that continues to be the case.
Naomi Blohm: 06:46Oh, absolutely. And some of my cattle producers who have been in the industry for decades, they're still quite concerned it could be something like a 2014 where once the market decides it's going to tip over, it took four years to make that beautiful rally back then. It's taken four years to make this beautiful rally now, and back in 2014 then shifting into fifteen, it lost almost all of it within that following year. So a lot of folks still looking at hedging. They're watching holiday demand.
Naomi Blohm: 07:15You know, Father's Day this weekend, so that demand has probably already been not for beef, and then we just have fourth of July coming up, and then folks are gonna start thinking about back to school and budget. So I'm wondering if we're gonna see the peak for beef demand really occurring over the next two weeks, and and maybe we'll see the funds take profits into the end of the month and end of the quarter to just, show profits on the books after amassing these long net long positions.
Todd Gleason: 07:44Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Naomi Blohm: 07:46Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 07:47Mhmm. Naomi Blohm is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly crop progress report detailing some of the corn numbers. In Illinois, 97% of the corn crop has now been sown, 96% as the rolling five year average, 93% in Indiana, and 99% in Iowa. Minnesota farmers report that they have finished their corn planting across the Midwest.
Todd Gleason: 08:2487% of the corn has emerged, 87% is also the rolling five year average, and 58% of the crop is said to be in good condition, 13% excellent. That's actually up one percentage point from the previous week. 90% of the soybeans have now been planted across The United States. In Illinois 91% have been sown, Indiana 90%, Iowa at 97, and Kansas farmers have completed about 76% of their soybean sowing. In Ohio, 94% of that crop has been sown.
Todd Gleason: 09:0275% of the crop soybeans across the nation have emerged. The five year average is 72%. 58% of the crop in good condition, 10% in excellent, and like the corn crop, those two numbers combined are up one percentage point, both by the way in the excellent category. Man, that's a quick look at yesterday's weekly crop progress report. In today's agricultural news, we'll pick up something from DTN It reviewed the listings of nearly 500 federal agency offices on the Doge website after US senator Adam Schiff, a democrat out of California, announced last week that USDA had reversed plans to close nine offices across his state.
Todd Gleason: 09:59Chris Clayton from DTN reports that Doge had listed a 110 USDA offices across nine agencies for lease cancellations amounting to about $59,300,000 in contract savings, but says now the Doge website lists 49 USDA offices slated for closure with listed total savings of about $19,500,000 Clayton notes the revised Doge list also appears to be inaccurate or out of date. Across the entire federal government, Doge has culled back its list of canceled leases from 793 in mid March to 485 possible office closures. We'll stay in Washington DC where president Trump's budget proposal to be considered tomorrow by the house appropriations committee would shutter the USDA ARS lab co located here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. The Agricultural Research Service facility is responsible for both the National Soybean Germplasm Collection and the Mayes Genetics Cooperation Stock Center. Each is an archive and grow out facility for soybean or corn germplasm gathered from around the planet.
Todd Gleason: 11:13These are genetic sources from which commercial and academic researchers find ways to improve the two crops. Advocates say shutting down or moving this ARS unit will cease or delay service to farmers and industry, break apart optimized systems and teams, waste past investments, incur new taxpayer expenses, and introduce new risks for irreplaceable collections. Again, President Trump's budget proposal would close the USDA ARS lab on the University of Illinois campus, impacting soybean and corn germplasm collections and research. Let's move to the state of Illinois now where the Association of Illinois Soil and Water Conservation Districts is worried that the fiscal year twenty six state budget will under fund the 97 soil and water conservation districts or SWCDs for the consecutive year. The expected allocation is $4,500,000 for FY '26.
Todd Gleason: 12:13That's about a 50% reduction from the f y '24 levels and below what was budgeted more than twenty five years ago. The executive director of the Association of Illinois Soil and Water Conservation Districts, Elliot Clay, says that leaves many districts facing layoffs, service reductions, or even closures. He goes on to say it translates to roughly $40,000 per district. The state, he says, is forcing critical conservation offices to cut staff even as farmers face climate volatility, rising input cost, and mounting pressures to adopt sustainable practices. And that's a look at today's agricultural news.
Todd Gleason: 13:07Brazil will probably harvest its largest corn crop in total ever this year. Some 5,000,000,000 bushels, and that's according to the National Supply Company or CONAB, the country's food and supply statistic agency, the counterpart to USDA. The volume's higher than last year and above previous projections due to favorable rainfall in April and May. Joanna Colucci has taken a look not only at the harvest, but also at how that crop is used along with Gary Schnitke and Nick Paulson. They've written an article for the FarmDoc website titled Brazil's twenty twenty four twenty five corn harvest grows, but exports are projected to decrease.
Todd Gleason: 13:52She is here now. Hi. Thank you, Joanna, for being with us. Can you start by telling me a little bit about what it means to be the biggest corn crop in history out of Brazil?
Joana Colussi: 14:05So yes, Brazil is expected to have the largest corn harvest in the country's history. This expectation is largely attributed to the high yield potential because when you look at the planted area, it increased only 1.5% from 52,000,000 acres to 53,000,000 acres, but the yields, the expectation around the yields is really good, so according to Conab, average yields are projected to reach a record 9.5 bushels per acre this season. This is 8% higher than last year. And we can say that these strong yields are mainly driven by the performance of the crop corn that we call safrinha, which is planted right after the summer soybean harvest. And of course, remember that last year there was a drought in the Central West region.
Joana Colussi: 15:13So, in this year, the weather, especially in April and May was really good. So we are in almost in the June, the harvest started in the beginning of the month and will continue until early August.
Todd Gleason: 15:29The size of the safrinha or corn crop is larger than either the and certainly the corn crop, they get three in one season. How big is it? How much of the production does it make up out of Brazil?
Joana Colussi: 15:43Yeah, so the safrinha, the crop, is responsible nowadays for 78%, almost 80% of Brazil's total corn production. And we know that this production is concentrated in the Central West region, in Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso Do Sul, and also a little bit in the South Of Brazil. So, over the past twenty years, Brazil's corn crop has grown more than nine times from 400,000,000 bushels twenty years ago to almost 4,000,000,000 bushels in the current crop season. So, when you look at the numbers regarding the crop that's planted during the summer season in Brazil, it has declined by 22%. So, we know that the Southern states, it's where the Brazil's crop is typically planted.
Joana Colussi: 16:50But yes, we have seen a huge increase of the corn crop in Brazil in the last twenty years.
Todd Gleason: 16:59Now despite the larger production, total number of bushels that are being produced of corn in Brazil, your expectations are that their exports will actually decline. Why is that the case?
Joana Colussi: 17:13I would say that the main reason for this decline are the rising domestic demand, especially from the livestock sector. I'm talking about poultry production, pork production, and also the growing corn ethanol industry in Brazil, which has expanded over the past decade. So, we know that during the many years and still nowadays, most of the ethanol in Brazil is produced from sugarcane. But in the last ten years, the amount of corn used to produce ethanol is increasing. Nowadays 15% of the corn in Brazil is used to produce ethanol and around 75% of the corn produced in Brazil is used to the livestock sector, I mean the meal either for poultry production or pork.
Joana Colussi: 18:18So, that's the reason that there is expectation that the exports from January to December this year twenty twenty five will decline around 9% from 1,500,000,000 bushels last year to around 1,400,000,000 bushels this year.
Todd Gleason: 18:40Any final considerations, particularly as it's related to competition and opportunities for US producers?
Joana Colussi: 18:47So while, like I said, Brazil is expected to reduce its corn exports this year, in 2025, because of the higher domestic consumption, The United States exports should increase according to the USDA. The projections for the twenty twenty four-twenty five market year, exports in The U. S. Should reach 2,600,000,000 bushels. This is the best result in the history, just behind twenty twenty-twenty twenty one, remember when China was a major buyer.
Joana Colussi: 19:28So, we can say that for US exports, who have seen corn exports exceed expectations in the five months of this year, Brazil with lower exports is likely to continue creating windows of opportunity during the year, especially when The US corn remains with the price competitive like nowadays.
Todd Gleason: 19:58Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Joana Colussi: 20:00Thank you so much for having me. See you next time.
Todd Gleason: 20:02Indeed. That's Joanna Colucci. She is a member of the FarmDoc team and has written an article titled Brazil's twenty twenty four-twenty five corn harvest grows but exports projected to decrease along with Gary Schnipke and Nick Paulson. You can find it on the PharmDoc Daily website right now at pharmdocdaily.illinois.edu. Donde is out of the office today, so I'll take you through a quick look at the Midwest and some of the forecast for the next few days.
Todd Gleason: 20:42We'll start in Grand Island, Nebraska, where highs will be in the mid to low nineties for most of the week. They'll have sunny skies today and tomorrow, but a chance of rainfall in that 20 to 30 chance from Wednesday evening through Friday morning, and then things will clear back up and be into the nineties again by the time they get to the weekend. Fargo, North Dakota will be far cooler instead of highs in the nineties. The highs this week will be in the seventies tomorrow and Thursday, low seventies on Thursday, and only 66 degrees by the time they get to Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 50, though they really don't have a chance of rainfall through the weekend at all.
Todd Gleason: 21:27Mankato, Minnesota does have a chance of rainfall tomorrow and Thursday along with Friday. In that 50 to 70% range, it will run all the way into the weekend. Their highs will be in the mid seventies. Lows in the upper fifties to lower sixties in Des Moines, Iowa. It's smoky there today.
Todd Gleason: 21:4784 degrees, 62 tonight. 93 tomorrow, a 25% chance of rainfall during the day. That ups to about 60% overnight and through Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday morning. And that chance of rainfall will fall off as they move into the weekend. Their highs in the mid eighties, lows in the sixties in the Northern part of Illinois.
Todd Gleason: 22:11A similar kind of forecast for them as to Des Moines, Iowa. And in the central part of the state, sunny skies today. Tomorrow, Thursday, a chance of rainfall, but only 20%. That'll be up to around 50% by the time we get to the weekend and stay that way all the way through Sunday, highs in the mid eighties. Lows in the upper sixties, and finally in Indianapolis.
Todd Gleason: 22:37Partly sunny skies in 77 today, 84 tomorrow, and 86 on Thursday. Their chance of rain doesn't come until Friday, and then it's only 30%. The lows overnight in the mid sixties. You've been listening, of course, to the closing market report from Illinois public media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason: 23:02That's willag.org. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. You have a great day.