Jun 11 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the June 2025. I'm extension's Tut Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com.

Todd Gleason: 00:16

We'll hear about the happenings in London as it's related to US China trade deals, and then we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. Drew Lerner from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City is at a USEC. That's a US soybean export council event in Mexico. He'll tell us about the event and what the weather forecast looks like during this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 00:51

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.37. Opinion, three quarters lower. December at $4.39 and three quarters, down a quarter of a cent July soybeans 7 and a quarter cents lower $10.50 and a half on the settlement price and November futures at $10.29 and a quarter they finished down 2¢ on the afternoon Bean meal futures at dollar 70 lower. The bean oil 23¢ higher, and wheat futures in the July soft red a quarter cent lower at $5.34 and a quarter.

Todd Gleason: 01:25

Hard red at $5.26 and a quarter down 1¢ for this Wednesday. Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com from right here in Champaign County, the elevator owned by FS Grow. Mark now joins us. Hi, Greg.

Todd Gleason: 01:40

Thanks for being with us again on a Wednesday.

Greg Johnson: 01:43

Good to be with you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 01:44

Well, let me, ask you a little bit about the marketplace for the day. I know you probably have been watching the trade negotiations that took place in London. Will they make much of a difference to the grain markets, or did they at all?

Greg Johnson: 01:59

No. In fact, there was an announcement earlier this morning, that, the trade negotiations, between The US and China have, come have, come to a conclusion, they've got some kind of a framework worked out. I think it's mainly on rare earth minerals and whether Chinese students can continue coming to US universities. I don't think the commodities were addressed yet. They've got some kind of a framework where that probably will be addressed later, But, the details that have come out so far don't seem to be very much related to corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Greg Johnson: 02:34

And, so the, markets have not, really responded one way or the other, basically unchanged, at the time of the release of that report.

Todd Gleason: 02:42

So no buy the facts, sell the rumor, no sell the rumor by the fact. Just just trade just trade and wait for the actual facts to come out apparently. So we'll see how that goes. What do you make of the trade so far this week going into tomorrow's USDA report?

Greg Johnson: 02:58

Yep. The the what we've got to talk about was the trade rumors. We've got the China, trade rumor out of the way. The India trade rumors said that they would probably lower tariffs on pistachios, almonds, walnuts, but not corn, beans, or wheat, which is obviously what we would have preferred to hear, here in The United States. But, so that was not friendly.

Greg Johnson: 03:20

And then Taiwan bought corn from Brazil this morning. The price out of Brazil is 15¢ cheaper than what it is out of The United States this morning. So all the trade related news was a little negative, but I think we've kind of known that, so the market has pretty well factored that in. So, if we can't find something friendly in the trade numbers, then we have to look to the USDA report tomorrow. The good news is seven of the last 10 June USDA reports have been friendly.

Greg Johnson: 03:50

We've been higher on the day of the report. Corn has averaged 5.5¢ higher on June report day each of the last ten years. And beans have averaged 6.3¢ higher on the June report day. So traders are looking for slight reductions in US ending stocks, 1,410,000,000.00 on the old crop corn down to 1.39, and on the new crop 1.8 to 1.79, beans from 3.5, basically unchanged, and new beans 2.95 to 2.98. So all those numbers are very close to where they were a month ago.

Greg Johnson: 04:26

So most traders are not looking for any changes. And even if we do see slight reductions in The US crop, the thinking seems to be that the bigger Brazilian crop will offset any reduction in US ending stocks. So not looking for a big, any big reactions, from as a result of the trade report tomorrow, but you never know. That's why we we trade every day. We'll see.

Todd Gleason: 04:49

And while, USDA officials will be in lockup, they will have access to information coming into them. That would include, of course, the CONAB numbers, which are due to be released tomorrow morning before the USDA report. They'll get a chance to see what, the Sabrina crop and the corn in general looks like, from Conab's perspective and adjust that as you suggested. On the global front, I did watch a German Marshall Fund event that was taking place in Brussels early this morning. It was interesting that you, talked a little bit about India and trade.

Todd Gleason: 05:25

There was an India representative there, and the European Union clearly is working towards a free trade agreement with India as well as The United States, both saying that they were looking to other parts of the world other than America to lead them. I thought that was both disturbing and interesting, so we'll see how all of that works out over time. But for this year, this month, this crop, what are producers mostly asking you about at this point? I'm sure they're worried that that the corn particularly might continue to fade going through the next month, unless there's a weather event somewhere.

Greg Johnson: 06:08

Exactly. We've been, farmers have been asking, where's the seasonal rally? We normally get a rally in April, May, June, and we have not seen one. And I try to remind them that last year we were waiting for an April, May, June rally and we really didn't get one. Last year, December corn started January at $5 and basically went straight down.

Greg Johnson: 06:27

We went all the way down to $3.95 made a low on August 26 before bouncing back to $4.30. So we basically averaged $4.45 on corn last year with a 1,800,000,000 bushel carryout projected. Now it's a little bit smaller than that now due to the increased demand. But most of the year, the trade was trading 1,800,000,000.0. And this year, we're starting off with thinking that we're gonna have a 1,800,000,000 bushel carryout.

Greg Johnson: 06:52

And so we started the year at four forty four. We made a high of four eighty in February, but ever since then, we've been going down. And so I try to remind farmers that we made a low of just under $4 last year and the high was $5 so $4.5 was kind of the average. Today we're at $4.4 So we're really not too far off what you could consider an average price for corn. And an average means that we spend half the time lower and half the time higher.

Greg Johnson: 07:18

So we're still hopeful, I guess, that we can get a weather scare over the next thirty to forty days. But if we do not, a 1,800,000,000 bushel carryout probably would lead to low four dollar prices in the fall before we rebound post harvest.

Todd Gleason: 07:32

Do you have a similar set of numbers for soybeans?

Greg Johnson: 07:35

Yes. November beans with a three fifty million bushel carryout. Last year we had a $12 high. Early in the year we had a $9.50 low. We finished the year at $10 The average price throughout the year was $10.80.

Greg Johnson: 07:50

Today we're at $10.30. We've had a high of $10.80, a low of $9.80 this year. The carryout's a little bit smaller projected at 300,000,000 bushels thanks to the lower acres. So that $10.30 price today probably seems a little low. I think we could probably see another 50¢ if they keep the acreage number down.

Greg Johnson: 08:09

And until we know for sure what the yield will be, that 52.5 bushel per acre yield is higher than the five year average. The five year average is 50.7, almost two bushels higher than the government's using two bushels more than what the five year average is. So even if we're conservative and say we take a bushel off of that 52.5, that's 80,000,000 bushels of beans, and that gets your carryout down from just over 300,000,000 to just over 200,000,000. So not saying that's gonna happen, but I don't think the market wants to sell off very much until we actually see that we're going to have something close to a 52 bushel yield. And of course, we won't know that for several months.

Greg Johnson: 08:50

So I guess right now if the acreage numbers do not change on the June 30 report, those acreage numbers probably are a little supportive for soybeans, but probably a little burdensome on the corn side.

Todd Gleason: 09:02

Thank you much, Greg. I appreciate it.

Greg Johnson: 09:04

Hey. Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 09:05

Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. He'll also join us for our commodity week program recorded tomorrow afternoon. We'll post that to the website at wilag.org, illag.0rg, by about 06:00 Thursday night.

Todd Gleason: 09:27

And then you can hear the whole of the program on our home station, Friday afternoon, and many of these radio stations will also carry it over the weekend. Commodity week, our weekly look at the marketplace. Our panelists this week will include Greg Johnson, Mike Zuzolo, and Logan Kimmel. In today's agricultural news, negotiators in London say they've come to an agreement in principle to implement the month old Geneva trade deal. Negotiators from The United States and China will present the framework of the implementation plan to presidents Trump and Xi for approval.

Todd Gleason: 10:07

For his part, president Trump says the deal with China is done, but added on True Social, this was subject to approval still by himself and president Xi. In the same post, Trump wrote China would resume supply in The US with rare earth minerals and that Chinese students could continue their higher education in The United States. The president made note that this has always been good with him. Mister Trump says the framework to implement includes a 55% tariff and the 10% tariff. However, it is unclear based on his truth social post which country is imposing which tariff.

Todd Gleason: 10:43

It appears China will impose the 10% tariff that would represent a decreased tax on both US corn and soybean imports into China from The US. We know farmers and other business people are watching the Trump administration's trade strategy carefully, especially the tariffs, which could directly affect their bottom line. Brian Keele is the executive director of Farmers for Free Trade and is holding town hall meetings across the country to discuss the tariffs and their impacts. He says he's especially concerned about how it will affect farmers.

Bryan Kuel: 11:19

I think we're all willing to give a little bit of latitude to president Trump. You know, we'd like to get better deals, so so everyone's waiting on that. But but patience, I think, is wearing thin. I think there are farmers who are getting squeezed already. And, certainly, if this drags on into harvest season, I think we're gonna see a lot of pain.

Todd Gleason: 11:36

Keehl says he's hearing a uniform message from producers at these meetings. They're nervous.

Bryan Kuel: 11:42

20% of US farm revenue comes from exports. So if our exports decline, our farmers decline, and and that's really scary. Farmers also are price takers when it comes to input. So if we're driving up the cost of fertilizer or steel or farm chemicals, farmers get squeezed, and that that's the big concern. We don't wanna see farmers go out of business.

Bryan Kuel: 12:02

Farmers play an important role in terms of food security, in terms of keeping our rural communities afloat.

Todd Gleason: 12:08

Farmers for Free Trade has hosted town hall meetings in Austin, Texas and Raleigh, North Carolina in the past couple of weeks. Their next stop is scheduled for June 17 in Swisher, Iowa. Well, let's stay with the president's agenda, but we'll switch to the big beautiful bill. Senior Iowa senator Chuck Grassley has complained that the president's one big beautiful bill is not so beautiful when it comes to farm payment limits. Grassley's come close in years past to limiting farm payments and was blocked by southern lawmakers then and Wall Street investors too from doing so.

Chuck Grassley: 12:44

Unfortunately, the one big beautiful bill passed by the house included an increase in the payment limits and tied future payment limits to inflation.

Todd Gleason: 12:56

Which Grassley says can quickly become a runaway train. Grassley argues it's time to limit payments to those actively engaged in farming or those with dirt under their fingernails.

Chuck Grassley: 13:07

I'm very upset that they've increased, the payment limits from a 125 to a 155. That's just a waste of money.

Todd Gleason: 13:18

The senior senator from Iowa says his colleagues have yet to resolve several issues in the president's one big beautiful tax and spending bill too. And with a self imposed goal of getting the bill across the finish line, that could be an issue. The goal is July. And finally today, something a bit different. The Southern Illinois town of Metropolis has been the official home of Superman for more than fifty years.

Todd Gleason: 13:45

And starting this Friday, they'll celebrate the Man of Steel. Lily Burris has more.

Lilly Burris: 13:52

While Metropolis bears more of a resemblance to Clark Kent's hometown of Smallville, the town of less than 6,000 has been the superhero's official hometown since 1972. The town even employs its own Superman, Texas based personal trainer, Joshua Boltinghouse. He's worn the cape and tights for the town since being cast after a worldwide search in 02/2008. Boltinghouse says it's a special feeling to portray a character beloved by millions.

Joshua Boltinghouse: 14:16

When you put the suit on, it just kinda takes over the embodiment. At least for me, it does.

Lilly Burris: 14:21

The four day celebration draws thousands to the region to meet stars of the Superman franchises, visit the super museum, and participate in other events around the city. This year's celebration is set for June. A calendar of events is available at supermancelebration.net. I'm Lily Burris in Metropolis.

Todd Gleason: 14:39

And I'm Todd Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois public media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. That's willag.0rg, you can find our daily agricultural programming to listen to. Just click and play from the website, or you can search the closing market report out by name in your favorite podcast applications.

Todd Gleason: 15:16

Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City now joins us, though. He's out of the country. You are in Mexico. What are you up to today?

Drew Lerner: 15:26

Today I am speaking for the US Soybean Export Council's what they call their COOPCON, which is promotional conference with Latin American countries where they are promoting US soybeans and trying to keep a good relationship going with each of the Latin American countries. It's a big international conference and I get to share my wares with them as far as the forecast is concerned today. So that's what I'm up to.

Todd Gleason: 15:59

What are you telling them in that case?

Drew Lerner: 16:00

Well, you know, The US weather forecast right now continues to be looking pretty darn good and we keep getting a good mix of rain and sunshine occurring across all the major crop areas. Yeah, we still have some problems with some areas having too much moisture and others still a little bit on the dry side But when you step back and look at the big picture and add in the forecast for the next couple of weeks, it's pretty hard to to make an issue out of the weather in most areas. And I certainly don't want to slight those who are suffering from some dryness and those that are dealing with excess moisture but in general the country's crops are really looking pretty good and I think that that is going to continue to be the trend for a little while. Now when we get into July I do think that there's going to be a drying trend that will take place in the North Central parts of The US. That will include the Dakotas, probably Minnesota and Iowa to some degree.

Drew Lerner: 17:00

I think probably areas near the Canada border probably won't be quite as dry as areas like North Nebraska, Southern South Dakota, the heart of Iowa. These areas will probably have a drier bias in July. So we're hoping that the precipitation that occurs during this next two to three weeks will be sufficient enough to put moisture in the ground to carry these crops through the drier and warmer days of July. For the southern parts of the Midwest, I think the situation will continue to be favorably mixed, probably more rain than what's needed. And we'll see some warmer weather.

Drew Lerner: 17:36

Later in the summer, I do think that the Delta, the Tennessee River Basin area, and parts of the Southeastern US will probably end up having a drier bias, but that's probably late July and August. So those are kind of some of the things I'll be talking about. You know we've got a lot of winter wheat in the Southern Plains right now that is getting way too much rain, and, we're worried about the crop quality down there in Texas and Oklahoma.

Todd Gleason: 18:00

Those in Mexico do import, US soybeans, probably particularly soybean oil, I would think, and they also import rapeseed oil or rapeseed from Canada. They produce some soybeans. I'm wondering, though, what you've heard from them about their need and from the US Soybean Export Council about the need, for oil and soybean products to go into Mexico this year, and how things playing out in Canada work to maybe improve the export market for US soybeans to that nation.

Drew Lerner: 18:36

Yeah. You know, I think that there's a a very strong relationship here in Mexico with US soybean production. Folks that I've talked to so far they all have long standing relationships with The US and they seem to show no signs of that relationship changing any. I was really kind of surprised a little bit with some of the political things that are going on but certainly a few people that I've spoken to are very very encouraging that they weren't going anywhere. Right now in fact on stage there's a panel of U.

Drew Lerner: 19:15

S. Soybean and corn producers from the upper parts of the Midwest that are sharing what exactly they do for production and just kind of reinforcing the relationship. I think that part of the U. S. Soybean export council is doing a very good job in helping to encourage a long standing relationship.

Drew Lerner: 19:38

Also those folks that I talked to here today they did mention Canada and they did point out that the situation in Canada is a bit different because of the tariff impact and that there is a little bit more of an impact on Canadian business and I think that we're seeing that in The US as well. So hopefully the geopolitical situation will improve so that that kind of relationship with the canola oil and just crop production in general can improve. I didn't necessarily hear anyone say that they didn't want to do business. They just were pointing out the fact that it's not as easily the relationship is is strained a little bit at the moment because of the the political part of it.

Todd Gleason: 20:25

And and then finally, I'm guessing that you are hearing from both Mexican and US producers about the drought in Mexico and wanting to know in those growing regions, corn and soybeans, both probably, particularly corn, whether that be will be alleviated at any time soon.

Drew Lerner: 20:43

Yeah. The the drought is really very serious here, especially in the north part of the country. And the southern parts of Mexico are starting to see some some changes. The monsoon's beginning to come alive. We're getting some much better weather in the South.

Drew Lerner: 21:02

I think the bigger producing areas, though, the North are still chronically dry. I'm being told that the irrigation water situation is definitely low and critically low in some cases but there are a lot of wells that are used for the irrigation and the well water levels at least from a couple of folks that I've talked to appear to be hanging in there, let's put it that way. As far as the forecast is concerned, Northern Mexico is expected to do better with rainfall when we get into July and August. Probably the July and August, the monsoon will kick in this year for the time in a while and there will be some abundant rain and we'll also see some of that moisture streaming up through the Rocky Mountains and maybe helping to promote rain in August across the Northern Plains and probably the a portion of the Western corn and soybean producing areas.

Todd Gleason: 22:00

Hey. Thanks much, enjoy your conference.

Drew Lerner: 22:02

Great. Thank you. Have a great week.

Todd Gleason: 22:04

You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City and joined us from Cancun, Mexico, where the United Soybean Export Council is hosting the twenty twenty five America's Agricultural Cooperators Conference. The agenda there features high level experts like Drew, along with economists, industry leaders, and agricultural trade specialists who are discussing a variety of strategic topics. This, the conference providers say, provides an exclusive platform for knowledge exchange, strengthening business relationships, and identifying new market opportunities. You've been listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Wednesday afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 22:48

You can find us online at willag.org. Just click and play the closing market report, commodity week, the Illinois nutrient loss reduction strategy podcast or search any of them out in your favorite podcast applications. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.