Episode Number
10372
Episode Show Notes / Description
The June 15, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers recent agricultural commodity market trends, global supply estimates, and international weather forecasts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net notes that agricultural markets are currently stabilizing, with the recent Iran war settlement expected to reduce transportation and energy costs, thereby boosting investor confidence and global grain demand. Agricultural economist Ben Brown discusses the bearish impact of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which revealed a 14 million metric ton increase in global corn production, largely driven by India. Brown also highlights strong domestic soybean crush demand and notes that global wheat production increases are currently overshadowing tightening U.S. supplies. Furthermore, Brown emphasizes the strong correlation between energy and grain prices while warning of potential agricultural trade disruptions if the USMCA agreement is not extended. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics forecasts another round of severe storms and heavy rainfall for the U.S. Corn Belt before shifting to a drier pattern, while simultaneously warning of a prolonged heat wave and declining soil moisture threatening crops in Western Europe, particularly in France.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Transcript
cmr260615
The June 15, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers recent agricultural commodity market trends, global supply estimates, and international weather forecasts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net notes that agricultural markets are currently stabilizing, with the recent Iran war settlement expected to reduce transportation and energy costs, thereby boosting investor confidence and global grain demand. Agricultural economist Ben Brown discusses the bearish impact of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which revealed a 14 million metric ton increase in global corn production, largely driven by India. Brown also highlights strong domestic soybean crush demand and notes that global wheat production increases are currently overshadowing tightening U.S. supplies. Furthermore, Brown emphasizes the strong correlation between energy and grain prices while warning of potential agricultural trade disruptions if the USMCA agreement is not extended. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics forecasts another round of severe storms and heavy rainfall for the U.S. Corn Belt before shifting to a drier pattern, while simultaneously warning of a prolonged heat wave and declining soil moisture threatening crops in Western Europe, particularly in France.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 15th day of June 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel; he is at AgMarket.net. Ben Brown from the University of Missouri will join us to put last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates in fundamental perspective. Then, we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics will join us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
Announce: It comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where we have about 15 days left to put another $300,000 into our bank accounts. Remember, we only use what is actually there, and our goal is about $300,000 short. If you can help out by making a donation today, that would be great. You can do that at WILLgive.org. That is WILLgive.org. Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Announce: July corn for the day settled at $4.15 and a half. That was up two and three-quarters of a cent. September, two higher at $4.22 and three-quarters. December corn, a penny and a half higher at $4.41 and three-quarters. July soybeans for Monday at $11.19 and a quarter, five and three-quarters higher. November new crop at $11.34 and three-quarters, up two and three-quarters of a cent. Bean meal futures, 70 cents higher. The bean oil, up nine cents for the day. Wheat futures up five and a quarter cents in July, the harvest month there for the soft red at $5.89 and three-quarters. The hard red July at $6.40 even, up five and a half cents per bushel. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $243.25, $2.07 and a half higher. Feeders at $361.55, up $4.12 and a half. Lean hogs for 100 pounds down 57 and a half cents on their settlement price at $95.77 and a half, again for 100 pounds. Crude oil, around $80 a barrel at $4.25 lower. The crude oil for the Brent, $83.23, down $4.10. That first, of course, the West Texas Intermediate or WTI. Gasoline on the RBOB, the wholesale price today at $2.88 and a tenth of a cent per gallon, down 10 and four-tenths of a cent.
02:36 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
Todd Gleason: Here to talk about these numbers is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Thanks for being with us, Curt. I hope you are having a good day.
Curt Kimmel: It is an exciting day, actually, seeing some stabilization in the marketplace. This grain market has taken a beating over the last few weeks. Walking in here this morning and seeing things defensive, then coming back, closing unchanged to a little higher, makes it a good day. Plus, there is a lot of rain around, maybe too much in some spots.
Todd Gleason: Thinking of that, the crop reports are due out this afternoon. I suppose they will probably show something pretty good. You can get to those in a moment if you want. If not, I want to know what you think about the settlement of the Iran war and what impact that might have on the old crop, and then if you have thoughts as it relates to fertilizer and the new crop too. Begin with the old crop and what the Iran war settlement might mean to it, if anything.
Curt Kimmel: If it holds, we will see transportation open up and risk off on insurance for transportation, so it is going to create more world movement. As far as grain demand goes, I think it is in a situation where it opens up transportation and is positive. On the energy side, as long as energy continues to come down—it will not come down as fast as it went up—that is going to make some cheaper transportation also. There are several factors there, but the grain market went to the sidelines on this Iranian situation and has had a market of its own over the last month that is virtually straight down. Overall, the biggest impact is investor confidence, and consumer confidence is going to be a huge move. The Dow is up sharply today; the S&P is up sharply today. We will see some easing of gas prices to make the consumer happy, and prices should come down. Longer term, it is constructive to agricultural food demand, Todd.
Todd Gleason: When you look forward into the end of the month, the acreage report is looming. The USDA probably has collected most of the surveys on that, certainly the surveys for the grain stocks numbers. Both of those are due out June 30th. Are there expectations at this point for anything to really change with them? I am mostly thinking about acreage and what soybeans might look like.
Curt Kimmel: That is a good question. We will see what they come in at. I really have not seen a whole lot; there might be a few more bean acres and fewer corn acres. Whatever it is, one million acres here, one million acres there, if you multiply that by the yield, it is not a big mover. If you move the yield up and down, that will be more of a factor as we move forward. What type of yield is put on it will be the main focus. Grain stocks and corn stocks will be a little tighter. Corn demand has been huge through here. Is it going to create a bullish situation? Probably not, because any move up through here, producers will be willing to make additional sales. It has gone down quite a bit, and with the rain around, they will be more comfortable catching up. In fact, quite a few guys have been moving grain here; it has been too wet to do anything, so they have been in the trucks moving it. This afternoon’s crop conditions report, we are looking at good-to-excellent ratings on corn for the nation being 68% versus 67% last week. Soybeans 66% good-to-excellent versus 65% last week, so an improvement of about 1%. Wheat harvest is expected to be about 19%. Last year it was 10%. Last week was 11%, so wheat harvest got an early start. We are still seeing wheat yields coming in below expectations, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate you taking time with me for the day.
Curt Kimmel: You bet, take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net. He joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media.
Announce: It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where if you scroll down the page, you will find an article and a calendar event focused on the Dudley Smith Farm Field Day. That takes place Wednesday outside of Pana, Illinois. You can drop by for some interesting functions. All the details are online right now at WILLAg.org.
08:07 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
Todd Gleason: Ben Brown, agricultural economist with Missouri Extension and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, now joins us. Thanks for being with us, Ben. We have quite a bit to cover. I want to do the fundamentals of the marketplace today. Let’s begin with last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The monthly ones generally do not have a lot of changes. This one on the global side did add supply in many cases. Can you talk to me about what you saw within that program?
Ben Brown: You are right, the WASDE report was not a huge market mover for corn, soybeans, and wheat. People often ask why we have these reports in early June. The WASDE report incorporates other commodities and livestock products. This time of year, we might see changes in other commodities, but we are not far enough in our U.S. growing season to expect major changes to U.S. production. We are at the tail end of South American production, so we tend not to see many changes there. However, we did see some changes, which was the primary outcome for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The USDA found 14 million metric tons more corn in the global market. That is significant and was something the trade ahead of the report was not anticipating. That headline number alone is bearish for the corn market. A big chunk of those changes came from Indian corn production and corn ending stocks. India is not a major trader, importer, or exporter of corn. They have had a relatively strong and growing ethanol program mostly for industrial use. The expectation is that this could help feed into that, but it is not expected to change much for the global trade balance. The USDA did tip their hand and recognize the strong corn exports and commitments we have for the current marketing year, as well as setting up for next marketing year. Some of that bullish shine was taken off as a result of the additional global production, but the corn export picture remains strong. They made a reduction to corn ethanol numbers in the U.S., but I do not think that is concerning. Expectations were high to begin with, and we are seeing technology and efficiency in converting corn to ethanol take place. I am not concerned by the numbers; it is a strong corn balance sheet. On the wheat side, the U.S. supply is tightening on the poor quality of wheat in the Southern Plains and that hard red winter wheat category. However, strong global production is overshadowing domestic factors. We saw Russia increase their wheat output by 2 million metric tons, Turkey by 1.5 million metric tons, and Ukraine by half a million metric tons. The story on the wheat side is U.S. supply tightening, but it is being overdone by increases in the global market. Finally, the global soybean numbers were not drastically different from expectations. However, the USDA continues to shift U.S. domestic demand from the export program, which was lowered 20 million bushels for the current marketing year down to 1.51 billion bushels. That is the lowest in 13 years. We continue to set records for soybeans used for domestic crush. People talk about switching from exports to domestic use, and that is certainly the case this year, but people want to keep a stable export program. That is the story on the soybean side.
Todd Gleason: When you look forward into the end of the month, the acreage report is looming. The USDA probably has collected most of the surveys on that, certainly the surveys for the grain stocks numbers. Both of those are due out June 30th. Are there expectations at this point for anything to really change with them? I am mostly thinking about acreage and what soybeans might look like.
Ben Brown: They should be wrapped up with the survey collection for both acreage and June 1 stocks reports. Things are getting close at this point. A couple of things to look for include acreage expectations relative to the March numbers. Last year we saw a sizable increase in the corn acreage numbers from March. Could we see a similar thing this year? It is possible. I do not have a strong opinion. The expectation is that U.S. corn acreage comes down a little bit due to high fertilizer prices and some planting delays in certain areas, especially the Southeast and upper plains. I do not think we saw huge acreage shifts. My bias is not a whole lot of changes from the March numbers, and the trade is expecting a little bit of shift from corn acreage to soybeans.
Todd Gleason: The President has announced an end to the war in Iran. There will be a signing agreement scheduled for later in the week on Friday. Does that mean much to the agricultural world?
Ben Brown: Yes, our grains and oilseed industry has a tie to energy markets. I wrote a report for a local magazine recently and did some calculations. We can explain about 65% of corn and soybean prices just related to the price of oil. Using that indicator alone gets you 65% of the way to explaining corn and soybean prices. It is a strong tie, and we saw oil markets sell off on this news, resetting expectations. I do not think we will get back down to where they were prior to the conflict. The industry is still trying to figure out what supply disruptions exist. It will take a while for insurance companies to feel comfortable allowing ships to transit the canal on cheaper insurance rates. Some costs will stick around, but the market selling off is putting bearish pressure on our grain and oilseed markets.
Todd Gleason: One last item on the calendar. The President did say he was willing to not extend the USMCA agreement, which expires July 1. Probably a negotiating tactic, but it worried greatly many of the trade organizations and ag organizations in the United States.
Ben Brown: Canada and Mexico are our top two markets for agricultural trade; part of that is geographical proximity. We get several products from Canada, namely potash, which are highly important to our agriculture industry. We ship them corn-based ethanol and bio-based diesel products. Mexico is a major market for U.S. pork. Poultry is a growing industry across all three countries. The economies of all three, especially from an ag trade standpoint, are pretty intertwined at this moment. If we truly moved away from it, there would be challenges and potential market shifts.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Ben. I appreciate you taking time with me today.
Ben Brown: You are welcome, Todd. Take care.
Todd Gleason: That is Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri with Extension and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
17:31 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Mark Russo is here; he is with EverStream Analytics. Mark, could you first recap what last week looked like in the Corn Belt? We had a lot of wind and damage, and a whole lot of rainfall in our area, but that was a big storm and one of a series. Can you tell me how much of the Corn Belt actually picked up rainfall, and if there is any place that is still in deficit?
Mark Russo: With last week’s stormy weather, especially on Wednesday and Thursday—those were the two days with the most significant storm activity, from heavy rainfall and flooding to tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts—the extent of severe weather and the magnitude of the heavy rainfall was impressive. The rainfall totals that occurred, especially across the central and northern areas of Illinois, ranged anywhere from two to three inches on the lower side to five, six, or seven inches on the higher side. Looking at the entire Corn Belt given last week’s rains, the only areas right now that have a slight deficit, but nothing concerning, are across the far northern Midwest, around areas of the Red River Valley, like western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.
Todd Gleason: It appears more rainfall is in the offing this week. Where will it come, and will we have severe weather with it too?
Mark Russo: We are going to see another round of severe weather and widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, some of which could produce heavy rainfall. The timing of note here is Wednesday. That is the day when a very strong system will cross the Corn Belt. It looks to produce a swath of severe weather and heavy rainfall from Iowa and northern Missouri across into Illinois and Indiana. It has similarities to the setup for the severe weather outbreak last Thursday. The good news is that once we get past Wednesday, the pattern turns less active for multiple days. Drier weather and cooler air will work their way back in. At least beyond this upcoming Wednesday, it looks relatively quiet with any other severe weather risks looking out into next week.
Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, we should check in on Western Europe. They have had some difficulty with dry weather and very warm weather too. What are conditions like there this week?
Mark Russo: Europe, especially Western Europe, is getting back into another significant heat wave. Temperatures are heating up right now as a strong ridge of high pressure builds into Western Europe. It will expand eastward into Southeastern Europe over the upcoming weekend and next week. This looks to be a prolonged heat wave. Along with this will be below-normal rainfall. Right now, our biggest concern in Europe is France and surrounding areas in Italy and northern Spain. That is where the most significant heat and longest duration of dryness will be from now through the end of the month, and even into the start of July as well.
Todd Gleason: If you could go back and take up the early and late spring, and then the early summer there, were they very dry in that hot process too?
Mark Russo: The driest area back earlier in the spring, a month to six weeks ago, was actually Eastern Europe in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and even into Germany. As you moved west into a country like France, they were not that dry. In late May, there was a historic heat wave that started the process of lowering soil moisture in countries like France. As France started to dry out, there was a bit of improvement in areas further to the east. Based on everything right now, our concern is mostly focused on France and Western Europe in general because that is where temperatures will be the hottest and soil moisture will decline the most due to the dry conditions from now through early July.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You are welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That is Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. It comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAg.org. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.
The June 15, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers recent agricultural commodity market trends, global supply estimates, and international weather forecasts. Curt Kimmel of AgMarket.net notes that agricultural markets are currently stabilizing, with the recent Iran war settlement expected to reduce transportation and energy costs, thereby boosting investor confidence and global grain demand. Agricultural economist Ben Brown discusses the bearish impact of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which revealed a 14 million metric ton increase in global corn production, largely driven by India. Brown also highlights strong domestic soybean crush demand and notes that global wheat production increases are currently overshadowing tightening U.S. supplies. Furthermore, Brown emphasizes the strong correlation between energy and grain prices while warning of potential agricultural trade disruptions if the USMCA agreement is not extended. Finally, Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics forecasts another round of severe storms and heavy rainfall for the U.S. Corn Belt before shifting to a drier pattern, while simultaneously warning of a prolonged heat wave and declining soil moisture threatening crops in Western Europe, particularly in France.
- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
- Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 15th day of June 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Curt Kimmel; he is at AgMarket.net. Ben Brown from the University of Missouri will join us to put last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates in fundamental perspective. Then, we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics will join us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report.
Announce: It comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where we have about 15 days left to put another $300,000 into our bank accounts. Remember, we only use what is actually there, and our goal is about $300,000 short. If you can help out by making a donation today, that would be great. You can do that at WILLgive.org. That is WILLgive.org. Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Announce: July corn for the day settled at $4.15 and a half. That was up two and three-quarters of a cent. September, two higher at $4.22 and three-quarters. December corn, a penny and a half higher at $4.41 and three-quarters. July soybeans for Monday at $11.19 and a quarter, five and three-quarters higher. November new crop at $11.34 and three-quarters, up two and three-quarters of a cent. Bean meal futures, 70 cents higher. The bean oil, up nine cents for the day. Wheat futures up five and a quarter cents in July, the harvest month there for the soft red at $5.89 and three-quarters. The hard red July at $6.40 even, up five and a half cents per bushel. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $243.25, $2.07 and a half higher. Feeders at $361.55, up $4.12 and a half. Lean hogs for 100 pounds down 57 and a half cents on their settlement price at $95.77 and a half, again for 100 pounds. Crude oil, around $80 a barrel at $4.25 lower. The crude oil for the Brent, $83.23, down $4.10. That first, of course, the West Texas Intermediate or WTI. Gasoline on the RBOB, the wholesale price today at $2.88 and a tenth of a cent per gallon, down 10 and four-tenths of a cent.
02:36 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
Todd Gleason: Here to talk about these numbers is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Thanks for being with us, Curt. I hope you are having a good day.
Curt Kimmel: It is an exciting day, actually, seeing some stabilization in the marketplace. This grain market has taken a beating over the last few weeks. Walking in here this morning and seeing things defensive, then coming back, closing unchanged to a little higher, makes it a good day. Plus, there is a lot of rain around, maybe too much in some spots.
Todd Gleason: Thinking of that, the crop reports are due out this afternoon. I suppose they will probably show something pretty good. You can get to those in a moment if you want. If not, I want to know what you think about the settlement of the Iran war and what impact that might have on the old crop, and then if you have thoughts as it relates to fertilizer and the new crop too. Begin with the old crop and what the Iran war settlement might mean to it, if anything.
Curt Kimmel: If it holds, we will see transportation open up and risk off on insurance for transportation, so it is going to create more world movement. As far as grain demand goes, I think it is in a situation where it opens up transportation and is positive. On the energy side, as long as energy continues to come down—it will not come down as fast as it went up—that is going to make some cheaper transportation also. There are several factors there, but the grain market went to the sidelines on this Iranian situation and has had a market of its own over the last month that is virtually straight down. Overall, the biggest impact is investor confidence, and consumer confidence is going to be a huge move. The Dow is up sharply today; the S&P is up sharply today. We will see some easing of gas prices to make the consumer happy, and prices should come down. Longer term, it is constructive to agricultural food demand, Todd.
Todd Gleason: When you look forward into the end of the month, the acreage report is looming. The USDA probably has collected most of the surveys on that, certainly the surveys for the grain stocks numbers. Both of those are due out June 30th. Are there expectations at this point for anything to really change with them? I am mostly thinking about acreage and what soybeans might look like.
Curt Kimmel: That is a good question. We will see what they come in at. I really have not seen a whole lot; there might be a few more bean acres and fewer corn acres. Whatever it is, one million acres here, one million acres there, if you multiply that by the yield, it is not a big mover. If you move the yield up and down, that will be more of a factor as we move forward. What type of yield is put on it will be the main focus. Grain stocks and corn stocks will be a little tighter. Corn demand has been huge through here. Is it going to create a bullish situation? Probably not, because any move up through here, producers will be willing to make additional sales. It has gone down quite a bit, and with the rain around, they will be more comfortable catching up. In fact, quite a few guys have been moving grain here; it has been too wet to do anything, so they have been in the trucks moving it. This afternoon’s crop conditions report, we are looking at good-to-excellent ratings on corn for the nation being 68% versus 67% last week. Soybeans 66% good-to-excellent versus 65% last week, so an improvement of about 1%. Wheat harvest is expected to be about 19%. Last year it was 10%. Last week was 11%, so wheat harvest got an early start. We are still seeing wheat yields coming in below expectations, Todd.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate you taking time with me for the day.
Curt Kimmel: You bet, take care.
Todd Gleason: You too. That is Curt Kimmel. He is with AgMarket.net. He joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media.
Announce: It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at WILLAg.org, where if you scroll down the page, you will find an article and a calendar event focused on the Dudley Smith Farm Field Day. That takes place Wednesday outside of Pana, Illinois. You can drop by for some interesting functions. All the details are online right now at WILLAg.org.
08:07 Commodity Markets Discussion with Ben Brown
Todd Gleason: Ben Brown, agricultural economist with Missouri Extension and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, now joins us. Thanks for being with us, Ben. We have quite a bit to cover. I want to do the fundamentals of the marketplace today. Let’s begin with last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The monthly ones generally do not have a lot of changes. This one on the global side did add supply in many cases. Can you talk to me about what you saw within that program?
Ben Brown: You are right, the WASDE report was not a huge market mover for corn, soybeans, and wheat. People often ask why we have these reports in early June. The WASDE report incorporates other commodities and livestock products. This time of year, we might see changes in other commodities, but we are not far enough in our U.S. growing season to expect major changes to U.S. production. We are at the tail end of South American production, so we tend not to see many changes there. However, we did see some changes, which was the primary outcome for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The USDA found 14 million metric tons more corn in the global market. That is significant and was something the trade ahead of the report was not anticipating. That headline number alone is bearish for the corn market. A big chunk of those changes came from Indian corn production and corn ending stocks. India is not a major trader, importer, or exporter of corn. They have had a relatively strong and growing ethanol program mostly for industrial use. The expectation is that this could help feed into that, but it is not expected to change much for the global trade balance. The USDA did tip their hand and recognize the strong corn exports and commitments we have for the current marketing year, as well as setting up for next marketing year. Some of that bullish shine was taken off as a result of the additional global production, but the corn export picture remains strong. They made a reduction to corn ethanol numbers in the U.S., but I do not think that is concerning. Expectations were high to begin with, and we are seeing technology and efficiency in converting corn to ethanol take place. I am not concerned by the numbers; it is a strong corn balance sheet. On the wheat side, the U.S. supply is tightening on the poor quality of wheat in the Southern Plains and that hard red winter wheat category. However, strong global production is overshadowing domestic factors. We saw Russia increase their wheat output by 2 million metric tons, Turkey by 1.5 million metric tons, and Ukraine by half a million metric tons. The story on the wheat side is U.S. supply tightening, but it is being overdone by increases in the global market. Finally, the global soybean numbers were not drastically different from expectations. However, the USDA continues to shift U.S. domestic demand from the export program, which was lowered 20 million bushels for the current marketing year down to 1.51 billion bushels. That is the lowest in 13 years. We continue to set records for soybeans used for domestic crush. People talk about switching from exports to domestic use, and that is certainly the case this year, but people want to keep a stable export program. That is the story on the soybean side.
Todd Gleason: When you look forward into the end of the month, the acreage report is looming. The USDA probably has collected most of the surveys on that, certainly the surveys for the grain stocks numbers. Both of those are due out June 30th. Are there expectations at this point for anything to really change with them? I am mostly thinking about acreage and what soybeans might look like.
Ben Brown: They should be wrapped up with the survey collection for both acreage and June 1 stocks reports. Things are getting close at this point. A couple of things to look for include acreage expectations relative to the March numbers. Last year we saw a sizable increase in the corn acreage numbers from March. Could we see a similar thing this year? It is possible. I do not have a strong opinion. The expectation is that U.S. corn acreage comes down a little bit due to high fertilizer prices and some planting delays in certain areas, especially the Southeast and upper plains. I do not think we saw huge acreage shifts. My bias is not a whole lot of changes from the March numbers, and the trade is expecting a little bit of shift from corn acreage to soybeans.
Todd Gleason: The President has announced an end to the war in Iran. There will be a signing agreement scheduled for later in the week on Friday. Does that mean much to the agricultural world?
Ben Brown: Yes, our grains and oilseed industry has a tie to energy markets. I wrote a report for a local magazine recently and did some calculations. We can explain about 65% of corn and soybean prices just related to the price of oil. Using that indicator alone gets you 65% of the way to explaining corn and soybean prices. It is a strong tie, and we saw oil markets sell off on this news, resetting expectations. I do not think we will get back down to where they were prior to the conflict. The industry is still trying to figure out what supply disruptions exist. It will take a while for insurance companies to feel comfortable allowing ships to transit the canal on cheaper insurance rates. Some costs will stick around, but the market selling off is putting bearish pressure on our grain and oilseed markets.
Todd Gleason: One last item on the calendar. The President did say he was willing to not extend the USMCA agreement, which expires July 1. Probably a negotiating tactic, but it worried greatly many of the trade organizations and ag organizations in the United States.
Ben Brown: Canada and Mexico are our top two markets for agricultural trade; part of that is geographical proximity. We get several products from Canada, namely potash, which are highly important to our agriculture industry. We ship them corn-based ethanol and bio-based diesel products. Mexico is a major market for U.S. pork. Poultry is a growing industry across all three countries. The economies of all three, especially from an ag trade standpoint, are pretty intertwined at this moment. If we truly moved away from it, there would be challenges and potential market shifts.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Ben. I appreciate you taking time with me today.
Ben Brown: You are welcome, Todd. Take care.
Todd Gleason: That is Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri with Extension and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
17:31 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Mark Russo is here; he is with EverStream Analytics. Mark, could you first recap what last week looked like in the Corn Belt? We had a lot of wind and damage, and a whole lot of rainfall in our area, but that was a big storm and one of a series. Can you tell me how much of the Corn Belt actually picked up rainfall, and if there is any place that is still in deficit?
Mark Russo: With last week’s stormy weather, especially on Wednesday and Thursday—those were the two days with the most significant storm activity, from heavy rainfall and flooding to tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts—the extent of severe weather and the magnitude of the heavy rainfall was impressive. The rainfall totals that occurred, especially across the central and northern areas of Illinois, ranged anywhere from two to three inches on the lower side to five, six, or seven inches on the higher side. Looking at the entire Corn Belt given last week’s rains, the only areas right now that have a slight deficit, but nothing concerning, are across the far northern Midwest, around areas of the Red River Valley, like western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.
Todd Gleason: It appears more rainfall is in the offing this week. Where will it come, and will we have severe weather with it too?
Mark Russo: We are going to see another round of severe weather and widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, some of which could produce heavy rainfall. The timing of note here is Wednesday. That is the day when a very strong system will cross the Corn Belt. It looks to produce a swath of severe weather and heavy rainfall from Iowa and northern Missouri across into Illinois and Indiana. It has similarities to the setup for the severe weather outbreak last Thursday. The good news is that once we get past Wednesday, the pattern turns less active for multiple days. Drier weather and cooler air will work their way back in. At least beyond this upcoming Wednesday, it looks relatively quiet with any other severe weather risks looking out into next week.
Todd Gleason: Before I let you go, we should check in on Western Europe. They have had some difficulty with dry weather and very warm weather too. What are conditions like there this week?
Mark Russo: Europe, especially Western Europe, is getting back into another significant heat wave. Temperatures are heating up right now as a strong ridge of high pressure builds into Western Europe. It will expand eastward into Southeastern Europe over the upcoming weekend and next week. This looks to be a prolonged heat wave. Along with this will be below-normal rainfall. Right now, our biggest concern in Europe is France and surrounding areas in Italy and northern Spain. That is where the most significant heat and longest duration of dryness will be from now through the end of the month, and even into the start of July as well.
Todd Gleason: If you could go back and take up the early and late spring, and then the early summer there, were they very dry in that hot process too?
Mark Russo: The driest area back earlier in the spring, a month to six weeks ago, was actually Eastern Europe in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and even into Germany. As you moved west into a country like France, they were not that dry. In late May, there was a historic heat wave that started the process of lowering soil moisture in countries like France. As France started to dry out, there was a bit of improvement in areas further to the east. Based on everything right now, our concern is mostly focused on France and Western Europe in general because that is where temperatures will be the hottest and soil moisture will decline the most due to the dry conditions from now through early July.
Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Mark Russo: You are welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason: That is Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics, joining us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. It comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAg.org. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.