Jun 25 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported. It's the June 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson.

Todd Gleason: 00:12

He's a TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. I'll bring you up to speed on some of the latest agricultural news for the day and we'll hear from Drew Lerner as well. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew will help us take a look at the Corn Belt weather.

Todd Gleason: 00:28

They've had some rain, getting some rain in fact today in the Western Corn Belt that should help alleviate dryness conditions there. We'll talk about what's going to happen in the Eastern Corn Belt down in the Delta, check-in on the wheat areas of Kansas and Oklahoma, and then we'll tour the rest of the world including the Canadian Prairies, France, and China all on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. That's willag.0rg. We're there today right now as we go into the final few days of this month, the end of our fiscal year by June 30.

Todd Gleason: 01:13

All the money we're going to spend next year starting July 1 has to be in the bank. And because we're public radio, you are big part of our banking system. If you'd like to help out, can make a donation today. You can do that on the top of the page at willag.org. Hit the donate button or just go to willgive.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 01:34

Can always call (217) 244-9455 or 2117 if you'd prefer. In either case, tell the person that you're talking to or put into the comments section in support of agriculture. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. No settlement prices for you today, but about fifteen minutes before the close, corn futures in the July contract were down five at a quarter at $4.11, December at $4.23, 6 lower, that's the new crop. July beans were 17 lower at $10.29 and 3 quarters in November at $10.19 and 3 quarters were down 17 and a quarter cents bean meal down $4.20 the bean oil 22¢ lower wheat futures soft red down nine and five twenty six and three quarters and the hard red July at five twenty two and a quarter down 12 and a quarter cents.

Todd Gleason: 02:30

Again, that's going into the 01:00 hour. Livestock futures at that time were 62 and a half cents lower for the live cattle, 7 and a half cents higher for the feeders, and lean hogs for the day were up about 35¢ for a 100 pounds at the CME Group in Chicago. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's totalgrainmarketingcom now joins us to talk about the hot marketplace. Oh, wait. They're kinda cold, I guess.

Todd Gleason: 02:57

Not real. Not really. It's been it's been a bad four days for both corn and soybeans. Wheat as well. Tell me about those markets and what you've seen over that four day period and why the decline happened, it seemed like, so quickly.

Todd Gleason: 03:13

I think beans are down, what, 50¢ from just midweek last week.

Greg Johnson: 03:18

You you're right, Todd. And I think a lot of it has to do with the forecast. There's been good rains each of the last two weeks in most of the Midwest. There's rain in the forecast for later this week here in the Midwest. There's rain in the forecast for next week for most of the Midwest.

Greg Johnson: 03:36

And that'll get us pretty close to pollination. So, not that we can't have problems with the fill, but, it certainly looks like the weather leading up to pollination is gonna be just about, ideal, as far as rainfall is concerned. Now the temperatures are a little warmer than what we'd like to see, but if you have to have 90 degree weather, you'd rather have it prior to pollination rather than during pollination. So that forecast is one thing that's keeping the market lower. Another thing is the South American safrinha crop.

Greg Johnson: 04:11

The yield was increased by Agro Consult. Now that's not CONAB, that's not the government. This is a private estimate, but they increased their yield by almost, I wanna say 8%, which would be like the equivalent of a 14 bushel per yield increase from month to month. So they're calling it the mother of all safrinha crops down there. So there's another thing that's pressuring the market.

Greg Johnson: 04:41

And then you've got the funds, for a variety of reasons, have decided to short the corn market over the last several oh, I'd say six weeks, they've established a short position. So you've got even with good demand export wise and some other things, the funds are short, the South American crop is big, and and no threat to The US crop as of today. So I think those are the three main factors that are really pressuring the markets here in the last several weeks.

Todd Gleason: 05:07

I know the farmers have been watching the nightly news and the morning news probably as well and seeing the meteorologists talk about how hot it is and has been and will remain for some time across a large portion of the nation. In that same breath, they're probably calling you and saying, Greg, hey. This thing's hot. This is really hot. Why why are these markets going down?

Todd Gleason: 05:31

And how do you answer that?

Greg Johnson: 05:33

Well, hot weather at the right time or the wrong time is is certainly critical, but a brief period of hot weather, really, especially when the corn's at this stage of the growing season prior to pollination, probably isn't the worst thing in the world for the corn crop development. With farmers talking about the hot weather, I went back and did a little research to try to see if there's any correlation between the number of 90 degree days and eventual lower yields, and there is. But the problem is yeah, ten or fifteen, twenty days of 90 degree weather, which I think we're probably at about day nine or 10 right now over 90 degrees for the year, just isn't enough yet. In 1988, for example, that was the year that we had the the most days over 90 degrees. We had forty eight days that year over 90 degrees and Champaign County's corn yield, reflected that 85 bushel to the acre.

Greg Johnson: 06:30

The second most days over 90 degrees was in 1983. We had forty seven days, and the yield that year in Champaign County was 89. And then the third, most days over 90 was 2012, and I think a lot of people remember that year. We had forty seven days over 90 degrees that year. The yield was 109 bushels in Champaign County.

Greg Johnson: 06:50

So we've got a long ways to go to get to where we had that many days of over 90 degree weather. Maybe we'll get there, but we're only we're not there yet. We've only had, like I say, seven or eight or nine days of over 90 degrees thus far.

Todd Gleason: 07:05

Yeah, not really something we want to get to or to aspire to. No. So how should producers think about an old crop's kind of, I I know, probably a done deal in some respect, and maybe you can counter that idea, that it might have time left, but how how should producers think about marketing in a year that looks to have really pretty darn low prices?

Greg Johnson: 07:36

Yeah. First of all, I think farmers did a good job of selling old crop corn. I think we're down to what we call gambling stocks, that last 10%. And there's no good way to spin it if you're still holding onto old crop corn. It was a poor gamble in hindsight.

Greg Johnson: 07:50

So maybe we just don't have all our eggs in one basket. We take our lumps and sell the old crop corn and hang on to the new crop corn. Another way to look at it is risk diversification, not having all your eggs in one basket, is maybe selling beans and holding on to the corn. The the bean price, while it has come down 50¢, it did rally a dollar. And so I would argue if you look at a chart, the beans are kind of in the middle of the range, whereas corn and wheat are making new contract lows every day.

Greg Johnson: 08:19

So I'm not a real big fan of selling corn as we're making new contract lows with, you know, still two to three months of the growing season ahead of us. But soybeans, if you wanted to get something sold, so that you're not completely long, both corn and soybean crops, maybe sell a few soybeans, you know, as as a hedge against selling corn.

Todd Gleason: 08:40

Interesting. You're the only one I've talked to who has who has mentioned contract lows other than me. It must be hard to say. It is.

Greg Johnson: 08:51

Well, it it you know, I mean, we we we can deny it, but but it's a it's a fact. I mean, this is as low as we've been this year. And, you know, like I say, we still got three months to go before harvest, but, two and a half months anyway. So maybe something will still happen. Maybe the funds will cover.

Greg Johnson: 09:06

There'll there could be other things other than the weather that causes the market to rally. But, until something happens, we we just kinda have to treat it as as though this is where we're we're gonna be for a while.

Todd Gleason: 09:17

What are you hearing about fundamentally, the export markets, the the livestock sector and feed and how that's holding up.

Greg Johnson: 09:26

Ethanol demand, is our number two use for corn. It's it's steady, but nothing excite nothing that we didn't know about already. So nothing's changed on the ethanol feed numbers. Every time we get a new cattle on feed number, it's 1% less than a year ago. So we're still not, feeding more cattle, still not feeding more livestock.

Greg Johnson: 09:46

So that's why we've had high prices for both hogs and and cattle. So nothing friendly there. The only part that you can point to is the number three use for corn and that's exports. And export demand has been very good. Mexico has been a huge buyer of corn as well as some other countries.

Greg Johnson: 10:01

So that's good. But the problem is number one and number two are five and a half billion bushels of corn each usage and exports are only $2.02 and a half billion. So it's a far, you know, it's a far down on the totem pole, but, you know, it it is friendly. Every little every 100,000 bushels, or 100,000,000 bushel increase in exports helps. But, what we really need to see happen would be to see an increase in ethanol demand or an increase in feed demand, and neither one of those, look very in the short run.

Todd Gleason: 10:32

Anything else before I let you go for the day?

Greg Johnson: 10:35

I there's really not a whole lot out there. We've still got two and a half months to go, but we're at contract low. So farmers aren't interested in selling, you know, at these prices, and I understand that. But, like I say, maybe, as a way of not having all your eggs in one basket, maybe lighten up on some old crop sales and maybe some bean sales instead of corn. I guess that's really about the only advice I would have today.

Todd Gleason: 10:58

Thank you much, Greg. I appreciate it.

Greg Johnson: 11:00

Hey. Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 11:01

That's Greg Johnson. He's with TGM Total Grain Marketing, part of the FS GrowMarker Elevator System that stretches across Southern Illinois and into Indiana. His is the northernmost of those elevators located right here in Champaign County. Just a quick reminder as we come up on the last five days of this month that by June 30, all the money that we're gonna spend here at Illinois Public Media needs to be into the bank. That's right.

Todd Gleason: 11:29

Everything we spend in the next fiscal year starting July 1 has to be in the bank by June 30. You can help us out today right now if you'd like at willag.org. Look for the donation button at the top of the page or go to willgive.0rg. In either case, thank you, and make sure that you tell the person that you're talking to on the phone line (217) 244-9455. That's 217 or online, put it in the comments section that you are pledging in support of agriculture.

Todd Gleason: 12:07

One quick ag news story for the day. Yesterday University of Illinois field crop entomologist Nick Sider joined the Illinois soybean growers for a webinar. At the end of that webinar, he was asked what pest producers should be watching for not only in their soybean fields yet this season, but also in their cornfields.

Nick Seiter: 12:28

I hope it's not corn leaf faded again. I hope it's not a surprise. You know, usually for us year in and year out, it's it's corn rootworm, and that's become a more kind of a regionalized within Illinois issue. Outside of that, they become really difficult to predict. Even if you have weather, you know, if we start to get two weeks of drought, then you could say spider mites maybe, but hopefully that doesn't happen.

Nick Seiter: 12:54

But, yeah, if you wanted to make the safe bet, it would be corn rootworm, BT resistant corn rootworm.

Todd Gleason: 13:01

Nick Sider is an extension field crops entomologist from here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. The Crop Central articles that he writes from time to time show up on our website so you may keep up with his thoughts all season long right there at willag.0rg. Let's check the weather forecast now with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hi, Drew.

Todd Gleason: 13:40

Thank you for being with us. It's been terribly warm, hot, and we have had rainfall going into this. How do you think the Midwest is holding up at this time across the bulk of the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: 13:54

It's in amazing good shape, I think, at this point. Of course, we've we haven't had more than a week of heat, so that makes a big difference. And we came into the heat with a saturated soil. So we've managed to firm the ground up these past few days, and the heat has certainly been a bit uncomfortable. It's maybe not as bad as it could have been, but nonetheless, it's it's hot.

Drew Lerner: 14:20

And we do need to dry down a little bit. Not dry down, but cool down a little bit so we don't dry down too much. But the odds are pretty good here that we will indeed see less heat as we go forward through the weekend into next week. And there will be a couple of frontal systems that'll push across the region that will bring with it with them a chance for a little bit of rain. The only place in the Midwest that has been running quite dry recently was in Eastern parts of Nebraska and Western Iowa, parts of Southwestern Minnesota and a fair amount of South Dakota.

Drew Lerner: 14:55

Well, those areas are getting rain today, of course. And they've had a little bit of rain recently, but this is going to fester into something a little bit bigger and they should get a good soaking. And so that will eliminate that area as being one of concern for right now. I think the next area that's going to turn dry is probably going to be the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin, but that's going to be more in July rather than in these next ten days. And I know that we're running out of June here, so I guess it's just around the corner.

Drew Lerner: 15:28

But nonetheless, I think that's the area along with the Central Plains that will probably dry down as we move forward in time.

Todd Gleason: 15:34

How much rainfall do you think the bulk of the Corn Belt and you probably ought to divide it into that Iowa Nebraska line Minnesota and then going to the East might get over the next seven to ten days?

Drew Lerner: 15:49

Yeah, the Northwest area will probably see one to three inches easily. There may be a couple of counties and parts of counties that get four inches or more, but the rest of the region doesn't do that great. I think some of the model data is overdoing some of the precipitation. So I'm going to say we'll probably see one to two inches for a lot of other areas. And some of that rain will come while we're still pretty warm.

Drew Lerner: 16:14

So we'll evaporate it away fairly quickly. And I do think that even though one to two inches over a ten day period, it is pretty good this time of the year, I think we still may manage to dry down some parts of the region, especially that Lower Ohio River Valley area. So it's not a bad scenario, but we do wanna get rid of the excessive heat. And I think we'll do a good job in accomplishing that in the first week of July.

Todd Gleason: 16:40

When I spoke with Casey Shepherd, farm broadcaster with the Oklahoma Farm Network yesterday, she said that they were having an okay start to the wheat harvest in those areas. I suppose this expands right into Kansas, but it was awful wet. Can you tell me about their conditions for harvest this week and next?

Drew Lerner: 17:02

Yeah. We're gonna bring back a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity. In fact, these last couple of days has been raining from the parts of the Texas Panhandle across Kansas into Nebraska. Now Kansas and Nebraska is not a problem. The crop isn't quite ready to be harvested yet in a lot of that region.

Drew Lerner: 17:20

And the moisture is really helpful for the crop that struggled so long in Nebraska. But down in Oklahoma, it does look like it will still be doing well for another, well, we'll say three days. As we get into the weekend though and on next week, the risk of showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise. I do not think we're gonna see anything quite like what we saw earlier this month with the excessive amounts of moisture occurring in Oklahoma. That's not going to return, but there will be a slowdown in field progress when those showers and thunderstorms start to pop.

Drew Lerner: 17:55

Now we will keep the temperatures warm enough that evaporation rates will help to counterbalance some of that moisture. But at this time of the year, you know, we can get some strong thunderstorms and produce some pretty heavy amounts of rain. The only good thing is that it's usually localized. And I think that'll be the case. So we'll say, we'll probably have a fairly normal harvest in Oklahoma, but it will be disrupted once in a while.

Drew Lerner: 18:19

For the north in Kansas, I think they will dry down as we go deeper into July. And so I think they they will do well also.

Todd Gleason: 18:27

In the Canadian Prairies, we've been watching them. Have things changed in the last seven days?

Drew Lerner: 18:33

You know, last weekend was the most important rain event I think of the whole season. Most of the prairies, at least all of Alberta and West Central parts of Saskatchewan came up big winners with the rain. We saw one to three inch amounts. There were some areas in Alberta that got four inches. And the rest of the Prairies did pick up on some rain.

Drew Lerner: 18:57

It was just a lot lighter and more erratic. There's still a few areas in the Southwest Part Of Saskatchewan that did not do very well. And the problem is, is that we're not likely to see another big rain event like this again for quite some time. They'll have scattered showers around and just like we just discussed for The US, the temperatures are going to be warmer as we go into July and that's gonna keep the evaporation rates high. So Canada will still be on a watch list.

Drew Lerner: 19:27

They're just in better shape now than they were a week ago. And, but they're gonna need timely rain as we go forward through these next couple of weeks. And I think most of the prairies are gonna do okay, but I do think that there's gonna be some areas that are gonna struggle still for a while.

Todd Gleason: 19:43

Better check-in on the growing regions in France. What do they look like today?

Drew Lerner: 19:49

Yeah. You know, they've been playing around with a ridge of high pressure over the past week to ten days. That ridge is still going to be around at least into or through the weekend and they will see high temperatures in the eighties and nineties, a couple of extremes near 100 in the Southwest Of France. And it's going to be a continuation of harsh conditions. The soil moisture has been exhausted in the topsoil at least and subsoil is running marginally adequate to short.

Drew Lerner: 20:17

And so the stress levels in France is definitely going to be high through the weekend, but next week it looks like the odds are relatively good that we'll see some shower activity popping up. Now I don't think we're going to see a general soaking, but there should be enough precipitation around to take this stressful environment down by a notch or two and offer temporary relief. I do think the ridge will be back later in the summer though. So a close watch on France and for that matter, Germany and The UK is going to be warranted because I do think that their moisture profile will stay a little light. And when the next ridge of high pressure comes along, it could get very interesting.

Todd Gleason: 21:00

There were droughty conditions in growing regions of China earlier in the year. I think those had begun to abate. Are they still getting moisture?

Drew Lerner: 21:09

Yeah. The southern part of that really dry area in China's Yellow River Basin area got substantial rains about a week or so ago, a week to ten days ago. And those provinces were inclusive of Hainan and Shandong two of the more important production areas in China. And areas immediately north of those two provinces did not get rain, and they have continued to be dry and dryness is expanding as I speak in that area. But as we go into the weekend and especially next week, there should be waves of rain finally reaching that area too.

Drew Lerner: 21:47

And that should finally eliminate what's left of the drought pattern in China. Now some damage has been done, but with the rains looking better like this, I think that if everything verifies, their losses will be limited, which will unfortunately not help our marketplace a whole lot.

Todd Gleason: 22:05

And thank you much, Drew. We'll talk with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: 22:07

You bet. Have a good week.

Todd Gleason: 22:09

You too. That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand whenever you'd like to listen to us.

Todd Gleason: 22:24

You can check us out in your favorite podcast applications too. Just search out the closing market report commodity week and for that matter, the Illinois nutrient loss reduction podcast by name. It's simple, quick, and easy to do, or just play them right there from the website, willag.org. And when you're on that page, you'll find a couple of things. There is a running set of articles that come from the farm doc team, that's the ag economist here on campus, along with the crop scientist and the animal scientist.

Todd Gleason: 22:54

And there is too a way for you to make that donation. It's at the top of the page. Just hit the donate button or go to willgive.org. You have a great afternoon, and thank you. I'm the Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.