- Brian Lutz, Corteva VP Ag Solutions
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
From the land to grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the Closing Market Report. It is the March 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason coming to you today from the AgTech Conference at the iHotel on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets, of course, with Naomi Blohm at totalfarmmarketing.com.
Speaker 1: 00:22We'll review this morning's WASDE or world agricultural supply and demand estimates with Herb. We'll hear not from today's AG Tech Conference, but yesterday's AG Tech Conference, which was CDA or Center for Digital Ag and Brian Lutz from Corteva. You wanna stay with us for that, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We'll talk with Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming about what he terms as volatile and crazy weather as we make our way through this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
Speaker 1: 01:00That's willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day at $4.52 and a quarter finished a penny and a half lower on the afternoon. July futures down two and a quarter at $4.63 and a quarter, and December at $4.79 and 3 quarters, two lower. May beans, 12 o one and three quarters, up five and a half since today.
Speaker 1: 01:26July 1215, up six. And November soybeans at $11.56 and 3 quarters, up 5 and a quarter cents. Bean meal, a dollar higher. The bean oil, 48ยข lower. Wheat futures, soft red, down 12 and a quarter in the May.
Speaker 1: 01:40July, nine and three quarters lower. It finished at $6.00 3 and a quarter. And the hard red July at $6.23, a dime lower on the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago at 02:32, 37 and a half, up $2.22 and a half cents. Feeder cattle, three forty nine, 67 and a half, up $3.12 and a half cents.
Speaker 1: 01:59And lean hogs, $96.07 and a half cents. For a 100 pounds, a dollar 25 higher for the day. Crude oil futures down $9.95 at $84.83 for the hour. The diesel fuel was down about $0.16 gasoline off 12, almost $0.14 now at 2.62 and 8 tens and natural gas down a dime on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now stands about 82 points higher and the S and P 500 is down three quarters of a point on this Tuesday.
Speaker 1: 02:33Naomi Bloem from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace this morning. Naomi, the United States Department of Agriculture released the March WASDEEM, our world agricultural supply and demand estimates. My quick review of the soybean, corn, and wheat supply and demand tables, or at least of the first two, told me that not much changed in them. What did you make note of?
Speaker 2: 02:57Yeah. That's exactly it. There were just barely any changes at all. So specifically for corn, no changes to any category. On the soybeans, just some modest tweaks where imports were increased by 5,000,000 bushel, and then some adjusting with the crush number, being increased.
Speaker 2: 03:18And then also, we had the export number stay unchanged. But the net result was that ending stocks were unchanged at three fifty million bushels, and over on the wheat markets, the USDA report for wheat had no adjustments. So a lot of times, the March WASDE has very, very limited adjustments on the demand side of things, and then the market instead starts to shift and focus its attention on the planted acres report at the end of the month, and then starting to weather watch in Brazil on the second crop corn pollination season will be coming up that March and early April. But of course, this year, now we have another new little twist with the global Iran conflict and how that could affect the as well.
Speaker 1: 04:05One last number that comes out of those supply and demand tables. And you are correct with all the numbers for the S and Ds or the imports, exports, production, those sorts of things. We did have a change, which was a $05 increase in the season's average cash price. So USDA adjusting that just slightly, but nothing else really mattered. And then once those numbers all came out, things didn't go very well in Chicago, certainly not for weed.
Speaker 1: 04:33And I was not watching that number after or before they came out, so I don't know whether it was down at that point. But today, it is lower. Is that just because the Trump administration is starting to settle things out a little bit as it relates to Iran, or at least that's what the trade is thinking at this point?
Speaker 2: 04:52Yeah, I think that the conversations around Iran are just stealing the thunder today for the grain markets. So crude oil, as you know, Sunday night peaked just over $119 Now today, the April contract trading near 77. So just a dramatic turnaround, some profit taking, technical selling, the threat of the war maybe kind of being reduced or eliminated based on what President Trump had been saying yesterday, and so the grain markets took some of that potential war premium out of the market, and we're seeing some profits taking and technical selling happening in the grains today as we maybe shift back into regular supply and demand fundamental trade for the grain markets. But of course, we have to keep an eye on the Iran conflict. Any reason why the crude oil market should flare up again if the conflict intensifies, that would bring the grain markets to another rally again.
Speaker 2: 05:57So, it's not over and done with yet, but very interesting to watch the dynamics in the markets over the past forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: 06:04And indeed, in the crude oil, the world's nations coming together and saying we dip into our reserves and provide some help in that area as well, which pushed that market lower, as you well know. At this point, when you look at the charts, they looked really like things were going to move much higher for a moment. And then yesterday and today happened. Tell me about what they look like now.
Speaker 2: 06:32So it looks like maybe we're gonna see the market go back into a consolidation pattern. So specifically looking at the Maycorn contract, we are back in that range that we were in just late last week. So an uptrend still established since the mid January time frame, and on the May contract, the uptrend is still there unless May corn futures go below $4.39, then the uptrend would be broken. December corn still trading near $4.75 today. Uptrend is still intact.
Speaker 2: 07:03The uptrend stays intact on December corn unless we see the market fall below $4.65. So we'll see if we start to do a sideways shuffle here instead, again, starting to hone in more on what's gonna be happening with maybe President Trump and President Xi. Are they gonna have conversation? Maybe just continuing to keep an eye on war and dynamics there. And the soybean market today, you know, still in a very dramatic uptrend.
Speaker 2: 07:31And for the May contract, that uptrend holds unless the May beans go below $11.60, then that uptrend would be broken. So the bean market continuing to watch news on biofuels as well, but it's a it's a cautious time here. So I do feel though that a lot of producers did a great job since, Friday and yesterday and rewarded the rally with old crop sales and new crop sales. So that's fantastic. And, again, we just have to take it day by day here in the short term.
Speaker 1: 08:01What are the expectations of the biofuels industry agriculture as it's related to the RVOs and 45z? The Trump administration, sometime yet this month, is expected to release their final set of figures.
Speaker 2: 08:18Yeah. And you're right about that. But ever since the Iran conflict, started to flare up, we haven't heard much more on that. So we're all, maybe gonna be shifting focus to start to dig into some of those biofuel data, and hopefully we get that information because that is so paramount to grain producers right now, just if we can see any positive demand news on the biofuels front. And I think what I did see though was that with the crude oil prices increasing, we did see some glimmers of news from various organizations suggesting, you know, now we need the biofuels increases, you know, more than ever with higher priced crude oil.
Speaker 2: 08:56So it is going to be a topic, that is going to be very much exemplified in the coming weeks.
Speaker 1: 09:02The impetus is, of course, that there may be much more need for all kinds of vegetable oils, corn oil, soybean oil, canola oil leading those as it pertains to biomass based diesel in some form, whether that's regular soy diesel or renewable diesel, which could be made from all of those and used cooking oil and how their RINs are allocated for those as well. So we'll be watching that closely. You can go back and listen to last Tuesday's Closing Market Report, or maybe better just search out Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on the Farm Doc Daily website and read more about that. Both of them, and I read Todd Hubs's weekly look at the marketplace just yesterday, are still pretty positive about potentially the price of soybeans. So something that you and I will have to talk about in the future.
Speaker 1: 10:00What are the other things you're watching? I suppose farmers are talking to you about input prices and acreage at this point still.
Speaker 2: 10:08Oh, yeah, absolutely. And so of course, with the Orion conflict, there was a lot of conversation about the Strait Of Hormuz being closed and what that would mean for fertilizer and fertilizer prices. Input costs still soaring higher. And even though we had that nice, just modest price increase over the past couple of trading days for the grains, there is still that large disconnect between high input costs and profitable sales for farmers. So, it is still top of mind producers.
Speaker 2: 10:35We're hearing still producers say, in general, a little bit less corn acres planted than last year, a little bit more soybean acres planted than last year, but where the, acreage number ultimately falls, still up in the air. Of course, March 31, the next, prospective planting report, And we'll see, though, if the report is reflective of what farmers have been telling us or if there's anything dramatically surprising on it.
Speaker 1: 11:05We'll have to check with Lance Honig to see exactly when those surveys from farmers came in they're still coming in, I'm sure and if they can see a reflection of the higher prices for nitrogen and its impact on corn acres. I would guess USDA will at least make note of that when they put that prospective plantings report out, which is really a survey of farmers as opposed to anything else. So we'll find all of that out later. One last thing, because we're on that date. Any concerns looking forward to that March 31 event, which also will include a grain stocks update?
Speaker 2: 11:42Yes, you're right. The quarterly grain stocks will be on there as well. I'm still kind of curious about the wheat exports. I feel like our wheat exports have been stronger than what the USDA is suggesting. Maybe we see a little surprise on there for the wheat.
Speaker 2: 11:57But as far as the the corn numbers and soybean numbers, yes, we have to definitely pay as much attention to the planted acres report as the quarterly stocks report, because then that quarterly stocks report helps to set us up for then going into second quarter and helps us with some fundamentals to be watching and how that can relate to prices.
Speaker 1: 12:17Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: 12:19Thank you.
Speaker 1: 12:19You're welcome. Of course, that's Naomi Blooms. She's with totalfarmmarketing.com in West Bend, Wisconsin. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world.
Speaker 1: 12:34Don't forget that your decisions for crop insurance are due shortly And that you can visit our website at willag.org, willag.org, if you need a bit more information from the agricultural economist here on campus. Gary Schnitke and Nick Paulsen and myself hosted a webinar last week. That hour long webinar is still available online. You can find it and watch it at willag.org. The theme music for the Closing Market Report was written, performed in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer.
Speaker 1: 13:07Tim Gleason will have more in just a moment. Well, it's AgTech Week here on the Urbana Champaign campus at the University of Illinois. Today, I'm coming to you from the AgTech Conference. That's the premier conference for the week. However, there was a Center for Digital Ag Conference that took place yesterday, and we're going to hear a bit more from that right now.
Speaker 1: 13:41I spoke with Brian Lutz, who is the vice president of Agricultural solutions at Corteva Agriscience, and asked him why it was important that he be at CDA and what was the message that he presented to those who were in attendance.
Speaker 3: 13:59Yeah. I was here for the CDA conference, which I've gotta say I've been involved with the AI farms initiative here at UIUC for several years. It's been, one of the key forums for being able to convene academics, especially the faculty, students, postdocs here at UIUC that are leading in AI and agriculture, but also connecting with a lot of our other industry and other academic colleagues from across the the country.
Speaker 1: 14:22As you were speaking this morning, there were a couple of things that struck me. One of the lines was that we are shifting support from chemistry to biology. Can you explain that?
Speaker 3: 14:32Yeah. You know, AI is opening up a a ton of opportunities. It helps us understand both chemistry and biology in new and unique ways. And and really this means that we can start to blur the lines a bit between biology and chemistry. So for example, you know, of course, plants have a lot of traits, whether they're native traits or they're transgenic traits that can help ward off a variety of different pests or diseases or other pressures.
Speaker 3: 15:00And AI lets us understand, the genomes and crops in a new way where we can, actually start to combine these native traits, and and make sure that they're in in all of our products so that you can help, the plant naturally defend itself from a lot of these things. And that that's a great compliment for things like crop protection products.
Speaker 1: 15:21As you were speaking about AI, one of the things I think you pointed to was how quickly the pipeline can move and how actually AI is increasing the high likelihood outcomes, I believe, as it's related to narrowing the number of shots that you're taking at them. Can you explain what that means?
Speaker 3: 15:44Yeah. I mean, in really simple terms, if we look back over the last century of innovation in agriculture, we've had these big dominant waves. Right? So, the advent of hybridization and breeding and then the proliferation of fertilizers and then all of the innovation in crop protection products and GMOs and traits. But all of these happened as waves of different innovation that would last maybe a couple of decades where they were the dominant waves.
Speaker 3: 16:11When we think about, what AI and data are allowing us to do, we're really able to accelerate the pace of innovation where we have multiple things, like what have shaped the last century all happening now almost simultaneously. And that's just, you know, a great amount of additional technology that we're able to release for for farmers around the world.
Speaker 1: 16:31Are there practical applications that you're seeing today that farmers might see in their fields in the not so distant future from artificial intelligence?
Speaker 3: 16:40Yeah. I mean, there's, many, many concepts that are either already out in the market or are gonna be out in the next few years. We're talking about things like hybrid wheat, reduced stature corn. I mentioned the idea of stacking native traits. We've got a multi disease resistant, what we call our disease super locust project.
Speaker 3: 17:00We've got a biologicals portfolio that's building out very quickly that's complementing our synthetic chemistries. We've got new cropping systems we're helping to develop to support, alternative and sustainable fuels. So there's just many things that are that are coming. There, again, either out in the market or they're they're imminent.
Speaker 1: 17:19And finally, is there a way that you would summarize all of this and what that really means?
Speaker 3: 17:26Yeah. I would just say that the the core of what we're really seeing around innovation in agriculture is that we're able to shift more and more from sort of selection and screening, which has been the way that we have driven discovery, really over history to to this day, to AI and data are letting us be much more predictive and prescriptive, which means that we can really turn up the knob on how fast we can drive new innovation.
Speaker 1: 17:52Brian Lutz is the vice president of agricultural solutions at Corteva Agris cience. I spoke with him yesterday during the annual Center for Digital Agriculture Conference held right here on campus at the University of Illinois. It is AgTech Week. Today, I am at the AgTech Premier Conference. We'll hear more about that later in the week.
Speaker 1: 18:13Do want to remind you that Corteva Agriscience is a sponsor of the PharmDoc team and the webinars that I host for them from time to time. Let's take time now to take a look at the weather forecast. We're going to concentrate on The United States as we are now in the transition clearly between winter months and spring months. March is the time that that happens, particularly if you're a meteorologist, and we are now in seasonal spring, I suppose. Donde, thank you for being with us.
Speaker 1: 19:01Tell me about this transition and what it means across The US and the Corn Belt.
Speaker 4: 19:07First of all, meteorological spring did start on March 1, and we're not far away from starting astronomical spring. And, boy, it's like somebody hit a button with the weather. And we've seen a lot of variability, and we're gonna see more of it. Lots of ups and downs. First of all, the big warm up that everyone's been enjoying, spring like temperatures getting in the seventies and eighties in some areas.
Speaker 4: 19:29Of course, some of that came with a lot of severe weather late last week. We're gonna continue with that warmth until we get late in the weekend and early next week. We have, believe it or not, a strengthening polar vortex here in March that's going to expand southward, and will move out of the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies this weekend into the heart of the Midwest and the Great Lakes, we could see temperatures as cold by Monday morning into the single digits, even some temperatures that might slip a little bit below zero in the Northern Great Lakes and potentially some snowfall, especially long and north of Interstate 80.
Speaker 1: 20:06Okay. Oh, wow. So how much snowfall do you think? I mean, is this a big storm? It's cold.
Speaker 1: 20:12Clearly.
Speaker 3: 20:13There
Speaker 4: 20:14could be snowfall amounts of six to 12 inches in in portions of, the Dakotas, portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin. I could see snow accumulations, several inches in northern and central sections of Iowa. And if it gets a big enough push south, we we could see that go south of that I 80 area. So it's going to be enough to be impactful in some areas. And it it's gonna give us temperature whiplash because seventies and eighties down to single digits and teens.
Speaker 4: 20:44And then what we're gonna see is a big warm up in the West while this happens, and that warmer air will come back in about a week later, causing temperatures to go the opposite direction and go right back up again. And what tends to happen in these backs and forth is you always have severe weather as you make those transitions.
Speaker 1: 21:02So you're expecting very cold temperatures on the twenty first or thereabouts, you know, or this weekend. Which one?
Speaker 4: 21:12Well, so as we get this is going to be about a week from today or Monday. So we're talking about early next week. So we're talking about sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth is when the cold's coming.
Speaker 1: 21:24Oh, and the snow then. And then a week later, really warm air again. Does the vortex stick around, do you suppose? And do we get one more spill into April?
Speaker 4: 21:32Well, that's a good question. Because I will tell you this, about a week or so ago, it wasn't looking like the polar vortex was gonna expand this much, but it's showing a pattern that we saw several times during the course of the winter where cold air would build up in Hudson Bay and have a pretty big foray south into The US, and that looks exactly like what's going to happen. So we didn't see this coming in a week or ten days ago, so that doesn't mean it won't happen in April. The odds of it happening in April are certainly lower, but this is gonna be a bit of a shock to the system for a lot of the Central And Eastern United States next week.
Speaker 1: 22:10Thank you much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next Tuesday.
Speaker 3: 22:13See you then.
Speaker 1: 22:14That's Don Day. He is with Day Weather from Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online, on demand, anytime you'd like to listen at willag.org, willag.org, where you can also find the latest information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the U of Vibe. If you prefer, you can search us out in your favorite podcast applications as well.
Speaker 1: 22:48Just look for the Closing Market Report in places like Apple as well as YouTube and Spotify and so very many more including Audible, Alexa, Google Online and naturally Amazon Music. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.