Mar 25 | Closing Market Report

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Todd Gleason: From the land grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the 25th day of March, 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets. Greg Johnson is with AgYield. We'll find out a bit about fall anhydrous prices and preemergence herbicide injury on early planted soybeans. We'll wrap up our time together with a look at the weather forecast with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated. This Wednesday edition of the closing market report comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Listen to us online and on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

May corn for the day settled at $4.62, down half a cent. The July $4.71 1/2, down a penny. New crop December 1 1/4 lower at $4.87 3/4. May soybeans $11.52, down 3 cents. July $11.68 1/4, down 3 1/4. The November contract 2 cents lower today. It finished at $11.41 3/4. Bean meal down $3.60. The bean oil up 38 points or 38 cents per hundredweight. Soft red winter wheat down 8 in the July at $5.94 even. The hard red July down 5 cents at $6.14 3/4.

00:20 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson
Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson joins us now to take a look at the commodity markets. He's with AgYield. So let's talk about the markets today, a fairly tight trading range and volume light across the board. Greg, there just wasn't very much news.

Greg Johnson: Exactly, a very quiet inside trading day. Nothing real exciting. Outside markets were pretty quiet, too. Kind of mixed bag over there. It just seems like the market's digesting all the activity and news we've had here late and getting ready for the acreage report.

Todd Gleason: And so they are waiting for next week. A lot of questions there. You are a floor trader for quite a long time. Describe to me what it feels like in the commodity markets when there is no news and traders are just sitting around.

Greg Johnson: It can be excruciating if you are sitting around looking for action, trying to scratch out a trade for a tick or two. A lot of guys read the paper, do crosswords. It's tough. When there is no paper coming into the pit, and I talk specifically pit trading, when no flow of paper is coming from the outside from specs and hedgers to kind of grease the wheel, the locals essentially just kind of look at each other and trade scratch paper back and forth, and it's not a lot of fun.

Todd Gleason: You do look to outside markets from time to time on a quiet day. The dollar was a little bit higher today. Crude oil higher as well. Is that to give some direction or a little bias to corn and wheat, let's say?

Greg Johnson: Exactly. Typically, when we have quiet days, and today was certainly that, any kind of major movement outside, be it energy, metals, outside macro stuff, if the funds come in and want to buy or sell hard over there, typically there is an allocation given to ags. Ags will just move totally lockstep with it, ignoring all their fundamentals.

Todd Gleason: They're waiting for two different things, actually. RVO numbers, perhaps by Friday. SRE, small refinery exemption numbers, as well. At the same time, looking to Tuesday of next week for the prospective plantings report. What do they think the US farmer told the agricultural statistics service earlier this month about their corn planted acreage intentions?

Greg Johnson: Most are dialing back acreage just a little bit from earlier targets, pushing towards 95 million acres, a bit lower than the 98 million estimated before. Most producers seem to be going forward with corn. They've paid for anhydrous and they don't want to change programs now. A few might tweak margins on soybeans, but mostly the number they'll stick with is 95 million acres for corn.

Todd Gleason: Where do those 3 or 4 million unplanted acres go?

Greg Johnson: That's a great question. In the past, people said beans, maybe some minor shift, but there isn't a huge run-up in the bean numbers. The bean carryout is getting a bit more burdensome. The question is, does it go into minor crops, more hay, more CRP? I really don't think there is going to be a massive shift out of corn directly into beans. A million or two acres of corn is an adjustment to some local rotational changes and maybe a few unplanted acres altogether.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to South America, specifically in relation to the quarterly grain stocks number that comes out next Tuesday, too. Exports have been very good. Is there anything taking away from South American business out there?

Greg Johnson: No. South America's harvest is proceeding nicely. We have watched their currency, the Brazilian real specifically, remain weak against the dollar, which keeps their products highly competitive in the global export market. Our exports have been very solid. A bit of unexpected business in the Middle East has propped up some of those export numbers locally. They really haven't lost any traction down in South America. The numbers expected next Tuesday from a quarterly stock perspective in the US should reflect those strong early export lines and strong ethanol pull. They should be mildly supportive, or at least not bearish.

Todd Gleason: Okay, Greg, thanks for the update.

Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd. Have a great day.

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with AgYield, taking a look at the commodity markets on this Wednesday.

09:03 Fall Anhydrous Price Predictions and a farmdoc Webinar
Todd Gleason: There are quite a lot of things to look at from the farmdoc team at the University of Illinois in regards to planting and costs. One of those is natural gas. Typically, natural gas prices reflect strongly on fall anhydrous. Gary Schnitkey put out an article regarding this very topic on farmdoc daily. He noted that natural gas prices have stayed relatively low and steady. It costs about $400 a ton to produce and distribute fall anhydrous in Illinois based on his recent numbers. Because natural gas prices have not moved significantly, expectations are that fall anhydrous prices, when those numbers are announced and available to book, will be in the $500 to $600 range. That tracks precisely with the actual cost plus margin. More details can be found on farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.

10:05 Preemergence Herbicide Injury on Early Planted Soybean
Todd Gleason: I want to take a look at early planting and early planted soybeans, particularly preemergence herbicide injury. Logan Miller is a visiting researcher and an agronomist from Southern Illinois University. He wrote an article for the bulletin. It's the Pest Management Bulletin from the University of Illinois on this topic. Hi, Logan. Thanks for joining us.

Logan Miller: Glad to be here. Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Let's discuss planting dates. A lot of soybeans are getting planted early. In fact, many producers prefer to put their soybeans in the ground before their corn. If the weather conditions hold, it looks like late March could see some planting. However, there are significant risks related to preemergence herbicides in this window.

Logan Miller: Exactly. The push to plant soybeans earlier and earlier is absolutely real. We've seen significant yield benefits from getting those beans out early, capturing more solar radiation throughout the summer. But when you plant in late March or early April in Illinois, you are planting into soils that are cooler and generally wetter. That combination creates the perfect storm for preemergence herbicide injury.

Todd Gleason: What actually happens when a seed is put in the ground early, surrounded by preemergence herbicide?

Logan Miller: The issue isn't necessarily just the seed sitting in the soil. It's when that seed germinates and begins to push the cotyledons through the soil surface. When soil temperatures are cool, plant metabolism slows down drastically. When a soybean plant takes up a soil-applied herbicide, it relies on its internal metabolic processes to break that chemical down before it causes injury. In cool, wet conditions, the plant is taking up the herbicide with the soil water, but its metabolism is too slow to degrade it quickly enough. The chemical accumulates, leading to the injury symptoms we see.

Todd Gleason: What does that injury actually look like?

Logan Miller: It depends on the specific class of herbicide used. If you are using a PPO inhibitor—like flumioxazin or sulfentrazone—you'll typically see necrotic lesions, basically dead tissue, on the cotyledons and the hypocotyl. You might also see some crinkling on the first true leaves. If you are using a seedling shoot growth inhibitor, like a Group 15 herbicide, you might see stunted plants, shortened midribs on the leaves, or an overall "drawstring" effect on the leaflets.

Todd Gleason: Is this a permanent issue that ruins the stand, or do the plants grow out of it?

Logan Miller: In the vast majority of cases, soybeans are incredibly resilient. They will grow out of this early season injury. The secondary leaves will push out normal and healthy. The primary issue is if the stand is significantly reduced—if the injury is so severe that it kills the seedling before emergence or shortly after. But if it's just visual injury on the cotyledons, the yield impact is negligible.

Todd Gleason: Does that mean farmers should alter their preemergence applications if they plan to plant in early April?

Logan Miller: Not necessarily alter the products, but they need to be hyper-aware of the rates and the weather forecast. Do not skip the preemergence herbicide. Weed control, especially for waterhemp, demands a strong residual program. However, pay attention to the labels. If a heavy rain is forecast immediately after planting and application, the risk of the herbicide washing into the seed zone increases. Ensure planting depth is correct—at least an inch to an inch and a half—to put a buffer of soil between the seed and the concentrated herbicide layer on the surface.

Todd Gleason: Are certain soil types more prone to this kind of injury?

Logan Miller: Yes. Soils with lower organic matter and coarser textures, like sandy loams, hold onto herbicides much less tightly than heavy clay soils with high organic matter. If you are planting early into sandy soils, the risk of the herbicide moving into the root zone with early spring rains is much higher.

Todd Gleason: That makes sense. Logan, I appreciate you walking us through that.

Logan Miller: Happy to do it. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Logan Miller is a visiting researcher and agronomist.

18:22 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner
Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the weather forecast with Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated. Hi, Drew.

Drew Lerner: Hello, Todd.

Todd Gleason: I want to start with the United States. Let's work our way from the Southeast through the Delta, across the Corn Belt, and out into the plains. Let's start with the Southeast and the Delta. Soil moisture conditions seem to be holding well, but maybe a few changes are coming?

Drew Lerner: The Southeast and Delta have been generally very cooperative for early field work. Soil moisture is adequate across most areas. We had a little dryness creeping in recently, but the forecast models are showing a fairly robust system moving through the lower Mississippi River Valley and across the Southeast over the next five to seven days. That should replenish any lost topsoil moisture and keep conditions highly favorable for planting operations as we move through early April. It's a very good setup for the southern states.

Todd Gleason: Moving north into the Midwest and the Great Lakes, we saw some variable temperatures and a bit of early snowmelt last week. What's the short-term and long-term outlook for planting prep?

Drew Lerner: The Midwest is in an interesting transition. We did lose the snowpack quickly due to a brief warm-up, and soil moistures are near capacity for much of the eastern Corn Belt—Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. However, the pattern over the next week looks cooler than normal. We will see daytime highs struggling to reach average, which will stall the warming of the soils. We aren't expecting significant, heavy precipitation, but there will be frequent light showers that will keep the topsoil tacky. I don't see a massive, widespread planting window opening up in the first ten days of April for the heart of the Corn Belt. It's going to be a waiting game for the soils to warm and dry sufficiently.

Todd Gleason: Let's move to the plains, specifically the hard red winter wheat belt. There has been significant concern about dryness and recent heat.

Drew Lerner: The western plains remain the focal point of concern. Western Kansas, eastern Colorado, the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas, and western Nebraska are exceptionally dry. The recent record heat exacerbated the situation, pulling whatever minimal moisture was left out of the topsoil. The winter wheat is breaking dormancy in some of these areas under immense stress.

Todd Gleason: Are there any rain chances in the forecast for those areas?

Drew Lerner: There is a system projected for next week that will bring moisture out of the Rockies. The problem is the trajectory. Right now, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will fall across central and eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and eastward. The western third of those states—the areas that are most critically dry—might only see scattered, light showers. It will not be the drought-busting event they need. The bias remains drier and warmer than normal for the far western plains as we head deeper into April.

Todd Gleason: Let's finish up in South America. The safrinha corn crop is in the ground. What's the weather looking like for the remainder of their growing season?

Drew Lerner: Overall, Brazil is looking quite good. The northern safrinha areas—Mato Grosso, Goias—are receiving adequate, regular rainfall. The rainy season is holding on normally, which is perfect for crop establishment and early development. The one area we are monitoring closely is the southern states, primarily Parana. The forecast there has turned decidedly drier and warmer over the last ten days, and that pattern looks to persist for at least the next two weeks.

Todd Gleason: Is that dryness a severe threat yet?

Drew Lerner: Not severe yet, because subsoil moisture was good at planting. But if the dryness extends into the second half of April, when that corn enters pollination, it will become a significant yield-limiting factor. Argentina, on the other hand, is finishing their season with near-ideal conditions. The late-developing soybeans received excellent moisture recently, and the harvest window looks mostly open and favorable.

Todd Gleason: Drew, thanks for the comprehensive look.

Drew Lerner: My pleasure, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated. He joined us to wrap up this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. You can find us online and on demand anytime at willag.org. I'm Todd Gleason. Have a great afternoon.