Mar 26 | Closing Market Report

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Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 26th day of March, 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at AgMarket.net. We'll hear from Rod Bain at USDA about the wildfires across the state of Nebraska—historic wildfires that took place earlier in the year—and we'll put those in context later in the program when we talk with meteorologist Mike Tannura. He's from T-Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois, and we'll talk about the forecast for that part of the world and other growing regions, including Argentina and Brazil. Along the way, I'll remind you to visit our website at willag.org, where later today you'll find the YouTube video from this morning's webinar on the Iran war and its impact on fuel and fertilizer prices this spring and, more importantly, next fall. You'll want to stay with us right here on this edition of the closing market report for Thursday afternoon, or you can listen to the programs anytime you'd like at willag.org. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

May corn for the day settled at $4.67, down a quarter of a cent. July, a quarter higher at $4.78, and December at $4.94 1/2, a penny and a quarter higher. May soybeans $11.73 3/4, up 2. July $11.89 1/2, 1 3/4 higher. And November beans $11.52 3/4, up 2 3/4 of a cent. Bean meal futures up $2.30. The bean oil 92 cents higher. Wheat futures for the soft red in the July at $6.15 3/4, up 7. The hard red July at $6.41 1/4, up 8 1/4 for the day. Live cattle futures 95 cents higher. The feeder cattle $1.70 higher, and lean hogs up 17 1/2 cents. Crude oil trading at $94.65 in the WTI, and $4.34 higher.

02:00 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett
Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us. Tell me about things on the farm today.

Matt Bennett: Yeah, I mean, we're ready to plant beans, wanting to get going here. Obviously, the weather's been a little bit up and down, but a lot of moisture forecasted here for this storm system tonight. We're a little hesitant, I guess, to jump out in front of it, but ground's right, you know. Ground looks good. There's a few guys scratching around, but overall, there's not a whole lot going on just yet.

Todd Gleason: The thing that has been going on has been the straight-form news, the price of nitrogen. We believe, from the farmdoc team and even from AMS, the ag service that manages to collect data, that about 20% maybe of producers in the state have not gotten their nitrogen on. Is that what you're hearing here in Illinois and across the Midwest?

Matt Bennett: Yeah, that's pretty much what we're hearing, is that about 80% of the needs have been booked. I mean, clearly, if you're one of these growers that relies heavily on urea, it's problematic whenever urea has gone up a couple hundred dollars a ton. But no doubt that there's still a few acres that are, I would say, in limbo, because if you haven't committed to the nitrogen, of course, you could probably go either way depending on regardless of what you did on dry fertilizer. But our thought process is still, these acres coming out on Tuesday, you're probably looking at a little bit of skepticism just due to the timing of the war and growers maybe still contemplating decisions. So, while I think the numbers will be super important, I would assume that the war is going to be every bit as important, if not more, as far as price direction is concerned.

Todd Gleason: Nonetheless, you will have a set of numbers. What is AgMarket.net working with today?

Matt Bennett: We came out with 94.4 on corn and 86.1 on beans, so our combined acreage would actually be, if we're correct, I think we could see a record for corn and soybean acres here. At the same time, you're seeing some folks down in that 92 or 93 range, and then I saw Farm Futures today was over 96 on corn. So, there's some pretty wide guesses as to where this is going to come in, but our thought is that we certainly should lose some corn acres, especially after having such a large number last year at 98.8. I know that it's cheaper to insure this corn crop this year as far as the dollars you're insuring, you're doing it cheaper relatively speaking. At the same time, we also know that liquidity is a bit of an issue for the grower right now. So, with $11.50 beans looking at those prices here recently, it's just got us believing that surely there's some growers that are going to end up maybe with a little bit stronger rotation. I think it's still a big corn acre number, I just don't know if it's quite as big as what we saw a year ago by any means.

Todd Gleason: Tell me what you've seen in the marketplace and the moves it's made this week.

Matt Bennett: Just today for example, we were under some pressure overnight on that corn market, down four or five cents there, and then we just came right in and bought it. And quite frankly, it didn't really get super fired up, but regardless, it seems awfully resilient. Of course, when you look over and crude's up three and four dollars, it certainly tells you that there's a lot of skepticism that this war is anywhere close to coming to an end. So, if it doesn't come to an end, clearly there's some big implications on energy prices, which translate over to corn especially, and will translate over to soybeans as well. So, as of right now, we're kind of beholding to, hey, what's going to happen with the war situation? Nobody really knows, and it definitely makes this a pretty risky proposition to do one thing or the other. Now I would say as a grower, you've got to at least lock in some worst-case scenarios, in my opinion, because if you would get the double whammy of this war actually dying down, as President Trump continues to suggest as a possibility, if you have that along with a huge acreage number Tuesday, I don't think people will really enjoy the price action a whole lot.

Todd Gleason: And then you turn around and what we know from previous interactions between the fertilizer, the price of corn, natural gas, and what the fall bids for nitrogen might be, that might be really ugly by the time we get there too.

Matt Bennett: Yeah, that's the problem that we're going to run into here, is that a lot of growers are looking at $27 prices and wondering if they shouldn't leg into some of that. And typically, I would say if you know it works on your farm, I don't have an issue with it. But at the same time, it's tough to know that whenever you don't know what your input cost structure is going to be. And so there's no question that the longer this war goes on, you're going to have maybe much larger implications for $27 input prices than $26. And so I want to be cognizant of that and try not to get too far over our skis with our marketing plans for '26 or '27. I think that we've got to understand some flexibility is warranted, especially if we get aggressive at all.

Todd Gleason: That probably means paper positions as opposed to cash sales?

Matt Bennett: I do think paper positions is a good way to go. Limit your risk somewhat, not leave yourself hanging out there too far. Clearly, it's a very fluid situation, and so there's really no way to know exactly how to play this. But at the same time, I think keeping your head above water and not getting too overextended is probably a much better way to go.

Todd Gleason: Anything from the livestock or the export areas for the grains and oil seeds that we ought to be watching? We had E15 yesterday, maybe RVOs tomorrow?

Matt Bennett: Certainly E15 was an expected move. As far as the RVOs go, who knows what's going to happen with this ag day or whatever it is that they're calling it. But, whenever we look at that quarterly stocks report this week coming up, for those that are skeptical about what USDA is saying for yield for '26 or for '25 crop, you got to understand that ultimately usage, if it comes in much stronger than anyone expects, there's no doubt that you can start maybe asking yourself, is the production estimate correct? Whereas if usage comes in much less, who knows, maybe they underestimated it. So, quarterly stocks is going to be a big number here. It'll be very interesting to see what that disappearance is, and I think we can learn a little bit from that number if it gets too far away from estimates.

Todd Gleason: Okay, thanks much. We'll have a lot to look forward to in the next week, of course, Ag Day tomorrow on the White House lawn, and then the USDA reports the quarterly grain stocks and the prospective plantings numbers due out on Tuesday. Thanks much, and we'll talk with you again next week.

Matt Bennett: Sounds good, bud.

Todd Gleason: That is Matt Bennett. He is with AgMarket.net.

09:15 The Nebraska Wildfires in Context
Todd Gleason: Well, this month, the state of Nebraska has faced a wildfire emergency of truly historic proportions, fueled by record-breaking heat, parched vegetation, and fierce wind gusts topping 70 miles an hour. Multiple infernos have scorched acres across the state. The devastation to the Sandhills and surrounding regions is staggering. The Moral Fire alone consumed some 640,000 acres, officially making it the largest single wildfire in Nebraska's recorded history. Thousands of cattle have been displaced, and the immense loss of forage and fencing leaves ranchers facing a grueling multi-year recovery. Later in this half hour, we'll look at the broader weather patterns driving these extreme conditions. We'll have a discussion about the unseasonable dryness and heat that continues to grip the hard red winter wheat growing regions, for instance, of the southern and central plains. They run from Texas all the way through Nebraska. But first, we'll turn to the immediate recovery efforts. The Agriculture Department has standing programs, some flexibilities for wildfire-impacted producers needing recovery assistance. Rod Bain talks with a senior USDA official who explains some of those availabilities within the Farm Production and Conservation mission areas of the United States Department of Agriculture.

Rod Bain: By the time USDA officials, such as Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce, conducted an aerial tour of the Moral Fire, the largest wildfire in modern Nebraska state history, containment was at 98% with well over 643,000 acres burned. As USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes, this was one of several wildfires in the Cornhusker State in the last half of March.

Brad Rippey: The second largest was the Cottonwood Fire, not too far from North Platte, consuming more than 128,000 acres by March 23rd.

Rod Bain: Damages to livestock, rangeland, forage and feed, equipment, structures, and infrastructure recorded in these disasters. And with wildfire season picking up in the central and southern plains and throughout the nation in coming months, the FPAC Undersecretary reminds crop and livestock producers impacted by wildfire that assistance is available through standing USDA disaster programs. For instance:

Richard Fordyce: With the Farm Service Agency, the first one that kind of comes to mind is the Livestock Indemnity Program. If you have livestock that either were killed in a wildfire or were damaged in some way and have lost value, the Livestock Indemnity Program can come in and offer financial assistance.

Rod Bain: Another FSA offering is the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program.

Richard Fordyce: ELAP helps producers with compensation for feed and grazing losses. It helps farmers and ranchers pay for that feed, and it also pays for transportation.

Rod Bain: One FSA program perhaps not immediately thought of as a wildfire disaster recovery tool is the Conservation Reserve Program. As Undersecretary Fordyce explains:

Richard Fordyce: We are actually granting some flexibilities for folks that hold a CRP contract. They can actually donate that CRP for grazing. And grazing is available up until the beginning part of the primary nesting season for some protected birds. Those dates vary depending on where you are.

Rod Bain: And with the Emergency Conservation Program:

Richard Fordyce: This program actually comes in and helps offer financial assistance to producers that need to replace fencing and other infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed in the fire.

Rod Bain: There are other standing programs within the FPAC mission area under the Natural Resources Conservation Service is the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP).

Richard Fordyce: There are practices there that can come in and assist as well.

Rod Bain: While through the Risk Management Agency and the Federal Crop Insurance System:

Richard Fordyce: We have a number of livestock products now that producers have purchased, whether that's revenue protection or what not, and we would urge folks to just get a hold of their crop insurance agent and have a conversation with them about some potential flexibilities there with some of the products that our producers have purchased.

Rod Bain: The Undersecretary advises affected producers to have documents to present to local USDA service centers and crop insurance agents when applying for wildfire recovery assistance under various standing programs.

Richard Fordyce: Retain the receipts or the invoices when you're purchasing fencing material, and then also photographs. Some advice regarding photographs as documentation for disaster assistance applications: take some photos of things as you're doing it, if you're hauling hay or someone's hauling hay to you, probably would be a good idea to take a picture of that truck with the hay on it. Deceased livestock or damaged livestock, and also, if you have a fence that's been destroyed, take a picture of that, take some pictures while you're putting the new fence in. A picture's worth a thousand words and certainly can help as far as some of that documentation.

Rod Bain: More information about USDA wildfire assistance programs is available at local offices or online at www.farmers.gov/wildfires. I'm Rod Bain reporting for the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C.

14:50 Fuel & Fert Webinar | youtube.com/@farmdoc
Todd Gleason: Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday afternoon. Find us online and listen to our programming anytime you'd like at willag.org. And where today, eventually, you will find a link, probably just the video itself from this morning's webinar, or you can visit YouTube at youtube.com/@farmdoc to find the farmdoc webinar on fuel, fertilizers, and the Iran war. It went really well, and we're hopeful that you'll find the information there really helpful as you look forward not only to your needs this spring, but to what might happen with the price of fertilizer, maybe fuel too, going into the fall, looking forward to the 2027 corn crop, particularly in the state of Illinois. You'll want to join Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Chuck Spencer, and Gretchen Cuck for that webinar. Nick and Gary, of course, agricultural economists from here on campus. Gretchen Cuck, a D.C. economist for the National Corn Growers Association. Chuck Spencer from FS GROWMARK, and Jim Raftis will be there from the Illinois Department of Agriculture. He's an AMS or an agricultural marketing service reporter that collects data on the price of fertilizers across the state. You'll want to catch that webinar after the fact now. It's up on our website at willag.org.

16:40 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura
Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention now to the global growing regions. Mike Tannura is here. He is the president and CEO at T-Storm Weather. That's tstorm.net online. He's in Naperville, Illinois. Hi, Mike. Thanks for being with us.

Mike Tannura: Hey, Todd. It's always great being here and thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: Well, let's start with the weather in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of the United States. It was off to a good start last fall. Things have not gone as well over the winter months, especially in the last couple of months, in both the central and the southern plains. What can you tell me about the conditions?

Mike Tannura: Well, it is very dry. There's been very little rain over the last four to six weeks, and it shows up in our proprietary data: 53% of this crop had less than one-fourth of its normal rainfall over the last 30 days. And that's the highest coverage that we've seen between late March and late April in more than 14 years of records. So this is unusual to see it being this dry. There's no rain in the forecast basically for the next five to seven days. And so this dryness story is going to get worse as we move into the beginning of April. Once we get there, we're going to have to see a pretty big rain. There are several systems that will move across the central U.S. one to two weeks out, and any one of those could bring the rain that we need to this region. But most indications at this point in time are that all of these rains are going to focus on the Corn Belt and the mid-South, which is just a little bit to the east of where all of this crop is produced. The main reason for that is because the Corn Belt and the mid-South have much lower elevations than in the plains. The elevation in the Corn Belt is generally around 500 to maybe 1,000 feet. But if you're in the plains, the elevations are generally anywhere from 2,000 to 5,000 feet. And that area is much drier. So in order to get a big rain in that area, you have to transport muggy air into the region. The only real way to do that is to have a very slow-moving system approach that would develop southerly winds and pull muggy air northward from the Gulf. But at this point in time, most of these systems look like they're going to move quickly. But this is basically what everything hangs on, Todd. Whatever happens in about one to two, maybe two and a half weeks from now. If we get a great rain with one to two inches across the plains, then the situation would stabilize. If that rain doesn't materialize, then all of a sudden, it's pretty obvious that we have a major problem.

Todd Gleason: And during that same time frame, what do temperatures look like across the United States?

Mike Tannura: Well, it's been hot out there by any measure. High temperatures yesterday were in the middle 90s, and we saw this also about five days ago. It's going to be in the middle 90s again today, even with some 100s in northwest Texas, and we're going to do all this again early next week. So this is really warm for this time of the year. Now, we can go all the way back to September, and that's pretty much when this warm weather pattern started. From September through March, so we're talking about a seven-month period, we are absolutely smashing the record for the warmest in more than 130 years for the states of Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, which pretty much represents hard red winter wheat. And that's because of all this warmth that we've seen. And the really fascinating thing about it, Todd, is if you remember back in January, we had a pretty severe cold snap. And even with that cold snap, it's still been the warmest on record. And that's measuring it in two different ways: one, just by looking at the absolute temperature and then comparing it to the past, and also by accounting for the increase in temperature over time, because winters nowadays are around two and a half degrees warmer per day than 100 to 125 years ago. And once we flatten out that line, it's still the warmest on record. And that's just an amazing thing to see, and this is all part of that same setup.

Todd Gleason: Now turn your attention to South America. The Argentine crops, the spring-planted crops, are ready to be harvested. They run later, of course, than Brazil. What do conditions look like there?

Mike Tannura: Well, Argentina had a fantastic rain around five days ago, and that pretty much ended the dryness story. We had been telling our customers that dryness has been flickering over the course of this growing season in Argentina, but that's all over now because of this big rain. As you noted, harvesting is starting or will be starting over the next few weeks, and so we think the Argentina growing season has pretty much concluded. Although we do have a tiny bit of concern over a late-season heat wave that's starting, and that's going to last for about a week. So, not a completely ideal close, but the more important thing is that they saw those rains.

Todd Gleason: And then in Brazil, we're wondering about the second or safrinha crop there for corn, both in the southern part of that nation and the center-west.

Mike Tannura: Well, the center-west produces about 70% of that crop, and they've had pretty good rains over the month of March, and there's more rains ahead into April. So, no real concerns for that area. The southern 30%, though, has not received very much rain this month, and there's not much rain ahead over the next two weeks. And so you're going to have this tale of some concerns over dryness and drought in the southern areas, but okay conditions to the north. So eventually what's going to happen here is attention will shift to the south, and we'll need to see some pretty decent rains sometime between April 10th and 20th. That's a little bit too far into the future to think too hard about, but concern would be higher if it wasn't raining in the north. But we're getting that center-west rain like you're talking about, and as long as those continue, that will at least keep a lid on concerns, although some will develop nonetheless.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.

Mike Tannura: Sounds great, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Mike. That's Mike Tannura. He is with T-Storm Weather. That's tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. Don't forget that we'll record our Commodity Week program today. It'll air in its entirety tomorrow on our home station, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. Of course, you can pick it up online at willag.org after about 6:00 PM tonight. Again, that's Commodity Week, our weekly look at what's happened in the world of agriculture. You have a great afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.