Episode Number
10341
Episode Show Notes / Description
- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
The May 1, 2026, Closing Market Report features agricultural insights from market analyst Mike Zuzolo and meteorologist Eric Snodgrass.
Zuzolo highlights that corn and wheat prices are currently finding support from energy markets, delayed U.S. planting due to poor weather, and a historic drought threatening Brazil's second-crop safrinha corn. He also warns of a deteriorating U.S. hard red winter wheat crop and potential energy market disruptions stemming from ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
On the weather front, Snodgrass recaps the recent severe storms and tornadoes across Illinois, forecasting a shift toward cooler, drier conditions for the first half of May that will bring regional frost risks. Looking ahead to the summer, Snodgrass notes that a developing El Niño and current Pacific Ocean temperatures suggest the Midwest may experience a stormier, cooler-than-average season rather than extreme, yield-threatening heat.
Transcript
cmr260501
- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
Todd Gleason: From the land-grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the first day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. We will also hear from Eric Snodgrass, who will help us look at the agricultural weather for the end of April, parts of May, and into the summer here in the United States. He will provide an update on potential issues with the second-crop safrinha corn in Brazil. We will cover all of that during the closing market report. If you stay with us for the whole hour, you will hear our Commodity Week program. Our guests this week include Arlan Suderman, Alan Dearden, and Logan Kimmel.
Announcer: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: May corn settled at $4.68 and a quarter, three and a half cents higher. The July contract finished at $4.80 and a quarter, up five and a half cents. December closed at $4.98 and three-quarters, up four and a half cents. It reached a high of $5.01 and three-quarters. Soybean futures closed with July at $12.03 and a quarter, up seven and a quarter cents, and new crop November at $11.82 and three-quarters, up nine and three-quarters cents. Bean meal is down $1.50 at $320.80. Bean oil is at 76.65, down 29 cents. July soft red winter wheat finished one cent higher at $6.37 and three-quarters. Hard red winter wheat is up one cent at $6.94 and a half on this Friday, May 1st.
01:46 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com in Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to analyze the marketplace. Thank you for being with us today, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo: Good to be back with you, Todd. Happy Friday.
Todd Gleason: It is Friday, and at one point today we saw $5 corn and $12 beans in the December and July contracts, respectively. What is the market concerned about?
Mike Zuzolo: It makes sense that wheat and corn are finding support from the energy markets. We had to move past the end-of-the-month price action on Thursday, which slowed us down while waiting for the new Iranian peace plan. Late-breaking news indicates President Trump is dissatisfied with it. Regarding row crops, specifically corn and soybeans, the market recognizes it is May 1st, and the crop needs to be planted. Weather conditions are not conducive to planting in several key areas. This places a spotlight on Monday's planting progress report. The trade did not want to go home short heading into May. Additionally, more news is emerging from Center-West Brazil regarding the safrinha corn crop. Private forecasters are reporting the drought in West-Central Brazil is reaching historic levels. That likely caught the market's attention.
Todd Gleason: We will hear more about that later in the program from Eric Snodgrass. Regarding planting slowdowns in the United States, it will be another two or three weeks before the trade becomes highly concerned. However, combining that with the situation in the Middle East suggests prices might remain supported.
Mike Zuzolo: Yes. We have returned to a 97% positive price relationship between lead-month WTI crude oil and lead-month soft red winter wheat. This is combining with concerns over the hard red winter wheat crop. Given crop conditions—with 35% rated very poor to poor nationally, and states like Oklahoma at 45% very poor to poor—it is possible we are heading toward a 2012-type scenario for hard red winter wheat in areas of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. These two forces have finally aligned. I expect positive price action in May, while hopefully allowing producers to make planting progress.
Todd Gleason: Last week, you discussed traveling with Dan O'Brien. He noted seeing wheat fields in central Kansas sprayed to be killed and replaced. Are you hearing similar reports?
Mike Zuzolo: Once you travel west of Hutchinson, Kansas, conditions dry up rapidly. The epicenter of the worst problems spans from Burlington, Colorado, to Colby, Kansas. An abandonment rate of 10% to 20% is not surprising and could increase. I reduced my wheat yield estimate to 48.5 bushels per acre last month, and I will lower it to 45 bushels by mid-May if this weather pattern persists. That would be the lowest yield since 2021. Additionally, we may see waterlogged soft red winter wheat and potential disease pressure emerging over the next 60 days, especially along US Highway 50 and the southern half of Illinois.
Todd Gleason: What else should the market monitor in the coming weeks?
Mike Zuzolo: The situation in Iran is dire. Energy firms report they have 10 to 20 days of oil storage capacity left. If wells are shut in, a significant portion may never return to production. This could result in a permanent loss of two to four million barrels per day, a factor the futures market has not fully priced in. The primary focus remains on wheat and crude oil, blended with corn planting progress, ahead of the May crop report.
Todd Gleason: To clarify, those oil wells are primarily in Iran and Iraq, stuck behind the current blockade?
Mike Zuzolo: Yes, particularly in Iran, as they are running out of storage. Iraq may export some supply through alternative routes. The situation will escalate in May if conditions do not change.
Todd Gleason: Did you advise your clients to consider locking in high-priced diesel for the fall?
Mike Zuzolo: I secured some summer diesel this week. I will give the biodiesel market 60 days to ramp up production, which may provide better pricing by fall. Otherwise, tough decisions regarding fall diesel will be required.
Todd Gleason: President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet on May 14th. Could this impact agricultural products, including DDGs?
Mike Zuzolo: I remain 50/50 on whether the meeting will take place. There was a difficult phone call between the presidents this week, exchanging unpleasantries.
Todd Gleason: Finally, what is the outlook for the beef cattle market?
Mike Zuzolo: The beef cattle market features strong cash and strong futures following recent expirations. Over the next 10 days, we must watch if rising corn prices pressure feeder cattle and if Wall Street maintains its gains. I have lifted hedges but am prepared to re-enter for the third quarter if the right signals do not emerge in early May.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo: Thanks, Todd. Have a great day.
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo is with GlobalCommResearch.com in Atchison, Kansas. You are listening to the closing market report, a production of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Visit our website at willag.org for daily agricultural updates.
10:41 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass
Todd Gleason: Let's turn to the weather forecast for the planet's growing regions. Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible joins us. We experienced a tornado in Mahomet earlier this week. Please recap the severe weather across the Corn Belt.
Eric Snodgrass: Monday was a rough night across much of Illinois. We had two major rounds of storms, and we are still seeing the effects, including standing water in many fields. Regarding the Mahomet tornado, the radar in Lincoln is about 60 miles away, meaning the radar beam scans roughly a mile above us. While the radar showed storms moving from the west, the surface wind shifted hard from the east, indicating a spin-up. It uprooted trees and caused significant damage locally. It capped an incredibly busy April. Illinois has recorded 100 more tornadoes so far in 2026 than Texas. This severe weather has brought locally heavy rain and large hail, while surrounding areas remain dry. Rain is expected across the South this weekend, which will alleviate some drought conditions. The weather pattern is shifting as we enter May.
Todd Gleason: What does that shift entail?
Eric Snodgrass: A massive ridge is moving into the West, pushing temperatures in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho into the 90s. This ridge will force a large trough over the Great Lakes, bringing multiple chances for unseasonably cold air. Frost risk will be prevalent north, east, and west of Champaign this weekend, and again on May 7th, 8th, and 9th. Once we pass mid-May, warmer conditions will return, allowing Growing Degree Days (GDDs) to accumulate. Currently, we face a deficit of about 50 GDDs over the next seven days compared to the average. It will be drier, but significantly cooler.
Todd Gleason: What will the latter part of May look like, and how is the transition to El Niño progressing?
Eric Snodgrass: We expect consistent warming past Mother's Day. The central question is whether we will experience a hot summer, as heat impacts yields more than drought. Current objective measures do not indicate a severely hot summer. We have warm water off Baja California, a building El Niño, and a lack of cold water in the Gulf of Alaska. This Pacific Ocean trifecta historically correlates with a stormier and near-average to cooler-than-average Midwest summer. However, ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska remain the most critical factor for summer weather and can still change. For the next 45 days, we will monitor these temperatures closely. In the near term, expect two rounds of cooler weather followed by consistent warming after Mother's Day.
Todd Gleason: Please provide an update on South America and the safrinha corn crop.
Eric Snodgrass: Parts of the Cerrado, the primary growing region for the safrinha crop, were dry in April, and the two-week forecast remains dry. The monsoon has ended, meaning the crop is finishing under dry conditions. This is comparable to late August and September in the U.S.; lacking final moisture reduces yield and test weights. Despite this, the market has not adjusted crop size estimates. It may be another 30 days before these conditions are reflected in market news.
Todd Gleason: We will follow up on that next month. Thank you for joining us, Eric.
Eric Snodgrass: You bet.
Todd Gleason: Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
Todd Gleason: From the land-grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the first day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. We will also hear from Eric Snodgrass, who will help us look at the agricultural weather for the end of April, parts of May, and into the summer here in the United States. He will provide an update on potential issues with the second-crop safrinha corn in Brazil. We will cover all of that during the closing market report. If you stay with us for the whole hour, you will hear our Commodity Week program. Our guests this week include Arlan Suderman, Alan Dearden, and Logan Kimmel.
Announcer: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: May corn settled at $4.68 and a quarter, three and a half cents higher. The July contract finished at $4.80 and a quarter, up five and a half cents. December closed at $4.98 and three-quarters, up four and a half cents. It reached a high of $5.01 and three-quarters. Soybean futures closed with July at $12.03 and a quarter, up seven and a quarter cents, and new crop November at $11.82 and three-quarters, up nine and three-quarters cents. Bean meal is down $1.50 at $320.80. Bean oil is at 76.65, down 29 cents. July soft red winter wheat finished one cent higher at $6.37 and three-quarters. Hard red winter wheat is up one cent at $6.94 and a half on this Friday, May 1st.
01:46 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com in Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to analyze the marketplace. Thank you for being with us today, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo: Good to be back with you, Todd. Happy Friday.
Todd Gleason: It is Friday, and at one point today we saw $5 corn and $12 beans in the December and July contracts, respectively. What is the market concerned about?
Mike Zuzolo: It makes sense that wheat and corn are finding support from the energy markets. We had to move past the end-of-the-month price action on Thursday, which slowed us down while waiting for the new Iranian peace plan. Late-breaking news indicates President Trump is dissatisfied with it. Regarding row crops, specifically corn and soybeans, the market recognizes it is May 1st, and the crop needs to be planted. Weather conditions are not conducive to planting in several key areas. This places a spotlight on Monday's planting progress report. The trade did not want to go home short heading into May. Additionally, more news is emerging from Center-West Brazil regarding the safrinha corn crop. Private forecasters are reporting the drought in West-Central Brazil is reaching historic levels. That likely caught the market's attention.
Todd Gleason: We will hear more about that later in the program from Eric Snodgrass. Regarding planting slowdowns in the United States, it will be another two or three weeks before the trade becomes highly concerned. However, combining that with the situation in the Middle East suggests prices might remain supported.
Mike Zuzolo: Yes. We have returned to a 97% positive price relationship between lead-month WTI crude oil and lead-month soft red winter wheat. This is combining with concerns over the hard red winter wheat crop. Given crop conditions—with 35% rated very poor to poor nationally, and states like Oklahoma at 45% very poor to poor—it is possible we are heading toward a 2012-type scenario for hard red winter wheat in areas of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. These two forces have finally aligned. I expect positive price action in May, while hopefully allowing producers to make planting progress.
Todd Gleason: Last week, you discussed traveling with Dan O'Brien. He noted seeing wheat fields in central Kansas sprayed to be killed and replaced. Are you hearing similar reports?
Mike Zuzolo: Once you travel west of Hutchinson, Kansas, conditions dry up rapidly. The epicenter of the worst problems spans from Burlington, Colorado, to Colby, Kansas. An abandonment rate of 10% to 20% is not surprising and could increase. I reduced my wheat yield estimate to 48.5 bushels per acre last month, and I will lower it to 45 bushels by mid-May if this weather pattern persists. That would be the lowest yield since 2021. Additionally, we may see waterlogged soft red winter wheat and potential disease pressure emerging over the next 60 days, especially along US Highway 50 and the southern half of Illinois.
Todd Gleason: What else should the market monitor in the coming weeks?
Mike Zuzolo: The situation in Iran is dire. Energy firms report they have 10 to 20 days of oil storage capacity left. If wells are shut in, a significant portion may never return to production. This could result in a permanent loss of two to four million barrels per day, a factor the futures market has not fully priced in. The primary focus remains on wheat and crude oil, blended with corn planting progress, ahead of the May crop report.
Todd Gleason: To clarify, those oil wells are primarily in Iran and Iraq, stuck behind the current blockade?
Mike Zuzolo: Yes, particularly in Iran, as they are running out of storage. Iraq may export some supply through alternative routes. The situation will escalate in May if conditions do not change.
Todd Gleason: Did you advise your clients to consider locking in high-priced diesel for the fall?
Mike Zuzolo: I secured some summer diesel this week. I will give the biodiesel market 60 days to ramp up production, which may provide better pricing by fall. Otherwise, tough decisions regarding fall diesel will be required.
Todd Gleason: President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet on May 14th. Could this impact agricultural products, including DDGs?
Mike Zuzolo: I remain 50/50 on whether the meeting will take place. There was a difficult phone call between the presidents this week, exchanging unpleasantries.
Todd Gleason: Finally, what is the outlook for the beef cattle market?
Mike Zuzolo: The beef cattle market features strong cash and strong futures following recent expirations. Over the next 10 days, we must watch if rising corn prices pressure feeder cattle and if Wall Street maintains its gains. I have lifted hedges but am prepared to re-enter for the third quarter if the right signals do not emerge in early May.
Todd Gleason: Thank you, Mike.
Mike Zuzolo: Thanks, Todd. Have a great day.
Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo is with GlobalCommResearch.com in Atchison, Kansas. You are listening to the closing market report, a production of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension. Visit our website at willag.org for daily agricultural updates.
10:41 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass
Todd Gleason: Let's turn to the weather forecast for the planet's growing regions. Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible joins us. We experienced a tornado in Mahomet earlier this week. Please recap the severe weather across the Corn Belt.
Eric Snodgrass: Monday was a rough night across much of Illinois. We had two major rounds of storms, and we are still seeing the effects, including standing water in many fields. Regarding the Mahomet tornado, the radar in Lincoln is about 60 miles away, meaning the radar beam scans roughly a mile above us. While the radar showed storms moving from the west, the surface wind shifted hard from the east, indicating a spin-up. It uprooted trees and caused significant damage locally. It capped an incredibly busy April. Illinois has recorded 100 more tornadoes so far in 2026 than Texas. This severe weather has brought locally heavy rain and large hail, while surrounding areas remain dry. Rain is expected across the South this weekend, which will alleviate some drought conditions. The weather pattern is shifting as we enter May.
Todd Gleason: What does that shift entail?
Eric Snodgrass: A massive ridge is moving into the West, pushing temperatures in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho into the 90s. This ridge will force a large trough over the Great Lakes, bringing multiple chances for unseasonably cold air. Frost risk will be prevalent north, east, and west of Champaign this weekend, and again on May 7th, 8th, and 9th. Once we pass mid-May, warmer conditions will return, allowing Growing Degree Days (GDDs) to accumulate. Currently, we face a deficit of about 50 GDDs over the next seven days compared to the average. It will be drier, but significantly cooler.
Todd Gleason: What will the latter part of May look like, and how is the transition to El Niño progressing?
Eric Snodgrass: We expect consistent warming past Mother's Day. The central question is whether we will experience a hot summer, as heat impacts yields more than drought. Current objective measures do not indicate a severely hot summer. We have warm water off Baja California, a building El Niño, and a lack of cold water in the Gulf of Alaska. This Pacific Ocean trifecta historically correlates with a stormier and near-average to cooler-than-average Midwest summer. However, ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska remain the most critical factor for summer weather and can still change. For the next 45 days, we will monitor these temperatures closely. In the near term, expect two rounds of cooler weather followed by consistent warming after Mother's Day.
Todd Gleason: Please provide an update on South America and the safrinha corn crop.
Eric Snodgrass: Parts of the Cerrado, the primary growing region for the safrinha crop, were dry in April, and the two-week forecast remains dry. The monsoon has ended, meaning the crop is finishing under dry conditions. This is comparable to late August and September in the U.S.; lacking final moisture reduces yield and test weights. Despite this, the market has not adjusted crop size estimates. It may be another 30 days before these conditions are reflected in market news.
Todd Gleason: We will follow up on that next month. Thank you for joining us, Eric.
Eric Snodgrass: You bet.
Todd Gleason: Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. He joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.