- USDA Crop Progress State Reports
- Corn, Wheat, & Soybean Tariff Rate
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloom. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. I'll bring you up to speed on current crop conditions across the Midwest with the state statisticians in Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana.
Todd Gleason: 00:25We'll hear from Minnesota as well, and we'll try to discern what the real tariff rate is on corn and soybeans as well as wheat going into China during the pause and after. And we'll also take a look at the weather forecast too on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.42 and a half, 5 and a half cents lower. New crop December at $4.41, down 4 and a half cents.
Todd Gleason: 01:00July beans at $10.72 and a half, up a penny and a quarter, and new crop November, up two. Bean meal, $4.80 lower. The bean oil, up a dollar 56. Wheat futures, July soft red at $5.17 and a quarter up 2¢ for the day. The hard red July at $5.11 and 3 quarters up three and three quarters of a cent.
Todd Gleason: 01:22Live cattle futures off 50¢. The feeder cattle, 37 and a half cents lower, and lean hogs finished a dollar and 20¢ higher on this Tuesday. Naomi Bloom now joins us from totalfarmmarketing.com. She's in West Bend, Wisconsin. Hi, Naomi.
Todd Gleason: 01:39Thanks for being with us.
Naomi Blohm: 01:41Yeah. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: 01:42Well, we had a couple of big things happening yesterday. Of course, we got the finalized news, relatively speaking, out of Switzerland that a deal had been cut of sorts, that is, with China. And yesterday afternoon, the USDA released the weekly crop progress reports. Can you tell me how each of those impacted the marketplace?
Naomi Blohm: 02:03Yeah. So just getting that, that trade deal agreement for the ninety day pause on reciprocal tariffs really was just welcomed news to the market. It gave the market a little bit of support on the overnight. That was really welcome because the market had been so oversold technically, we were just in the dark about what was gonna be happening there. So it allowed for the marketplace to have that pause, a little bit of a recovery balance before the USDA report came out yesterday, but we didn't really see any news on it in terms of the tariffs like we were gonna see brand new buying from China.
Naomi Blohm: 02:38So at least it stopped the bleeding for the soybean market and really just gave it a little bit of a springful of hope. Now, when looking at the crop progress ratings yesterday, we now have the corn crop that is 62% planted, so ahead of the five year average, and that soybean crop is 48% planted, also a little bit higher than the five year average as well. Now when we got that news, yesterday and last night, that weighed on the marketplace a little bit. Even though we had a pretty friendly USDA report from a WASDE report perspective, traders were more focused on the fact that the crop is going in the ground. There's not, any major delay anywhere.
Naomi Blohm: 03:19There is potential for rain coming through later this week. Now, there's difference of opinions on how much rain is gonna fall and where, but for the most part, we had mixed news. So welcome news on the tariff side of things. The fact that the planting pace is ahead of schedule is kinda weighing on the market, so we're in this little bit of a price low, but we've got plenty of trade to go for the rest of this week. Lots of weather to be watching and looking for signs of new demand on the export front.
Todd Gleason: 03:49Are you done with the May WASDE at this point or are you still thinking about some of those numbers, the smaller ending stocks, the export figures, particularly for corn, or are you just looking forward?
Naomi Blohm: 04:02Well, at this point, the WASDE report, I would say, definitely viewed as welcome news, and what it said specifically regarding demand was supportive. We had stronger export demand and feed demand for corn for the new crop, and that's what was able to keep the new crop ending stocks below 2,000,000,000 bushels. So now it really goes into a weather market from here. And the soybean number, with that ending stocks well below expectations coming in at two ninety five for the new crop, again, there's no room for any kind of a weather error there for soybeans either. There is zero weather premium baked into this market right now, So if there's any signs of of dryness in the coming weeks or any big heat wave coming, the market is free to respond.
Naomi Blohm: 04:52Because like I said, there is absolutely no weather premium in this market at all right now. Funds are probably pretty neutral on corn and they're gonna maybe wait to see what the weather unfolds here. You think about the Dakotas, it's 100 degrees out there right now today, and by the end of the week, they're gonna be in the upper thirties. So it's quite a temperature shift. And again, some places are supposed to be getting rain, but they keep adjusting the forecast a little bit.
Naomi Blohm: 05:17So we'll see if the rainfall occurs or not, but it's definitely parched still in the Western Midwest. They need the rain because, of course, that's where the planting has been so fast. So if the planting is fast, it's because there hasn't been any rain delays. So that's what we're gonna be keeping an eye on here in the short term. Hopefully, with this news of the tariff news, being kind of on pause here, maybe we see China show up because it's been dry in China too, and the fact that they imported wheat from Australia and Canada earlier this week tells me that their crop situation might be on the cusp of something serious because of how dry it is.
Naomi Blohm: 05:56So we'll wanna be watching for that, in the morning, at the 08:00 hour when the USDA announces those individual big export sales if they show up.
Todd Gleason: 06:05You have been an advocate of watching the seasonal trends, which are up in May and June for corn and soybeans, generally speaking. I'm wondering how wheat will make that change if it does at all, and whether or not yesterday's WASDE shifted to how aggressive you think producers might want to be in making new crop sales and old crop for that matter in that time frame.
Naomi Blohm: 06:29Yeah. So that seasonal tendency is that new crop corn and beans have a tendency to make their summer price high between Mother's Day and Father's Day. So, obviously, Mother's Day has passed, and we're on the low end of things. Market has been oversold. We aren't trading any weather premiums, so it makes me feel like the seasonality will occur and that we'll get that rally at some point here in late May to early June, and then that'll be the time to capitalize on new crop sales.
Naomi Blohm: 06:56Now, tomorrow is the last trading day for the May grain futures, and when looking at details of seasonal charts, it seems like once we get that last trading day for the May grains out of the way, then we can start to see front month July contracts come back to life here. So I'm really encouraged that we'll start to see the market, which is so oversold right now, start to kinda come back up for air for corn and beans. With the wheat complex, trading lower initially this morning but finished the day higher, there's a wheat tour going on in Kansas and there's been some disease found. So that actually might take some of that bigger potential yield that they've had off the top. So we're gonna be watching for signs of that in the Kansas wheat market, because the market had been trading that everything was hunky dory because they had had rains, but now this disease is starting to be out there.
Naomi Blohm: 07:45A virus, I can't remember specifically what it was called, but they are really finding it. It seems to be prolific and throughout a lot of the state. So keep an eye on that for the Kansas wheat.
Todd Gleason: 07:54Thank you very much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
Naomi Blohm: 07:57Alright. Thank you.
Todd Gleason: 07:58That's Naomi Bloom. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly crop progress report. It showed 62% of the corn crop around the nation has been planted, 56% is the rolling five year average. 28% of that crop has emerged.
Todd Gleason: 08:2248% of soybeans have been sown. That's ahead of the thirty seven percent five year average and 17% of the crop is up and growing. 53% of the winter wheat crop has headed 45% is the five year average, and it's said to be in 46% good and 8% excellent condition. Those numbers are both up from the forty four and seven in the previous week and forty two and eight in the previous year. Now here are statisticians from some of the regions around the Midwest.
NASS Iowa: 08:57This is Rebecca Alter, agricultural statistician for the USDA Nass Iowa field office. A warm and dry week made for excellent planting conditions. Producers made quick progress planting corn and soybeans. Conditions were also favorable for spraying. Topsoil moisture condition rated 5% very short, 22% short, 70% adequate, and 3% surplus.
NASS Iowa: 09:27Corn planted reached 76%, eight days ahead of last year and three days ahead of the five year average. Corn emerged reached 30%, four days ahead of last year's pace and two days ahead of normal. 64% of the expected soybean crop has been planted, ten days ahead of last year and five days ahead of the five year average. Soybeans emerged reached 16%. Nearly all of the oat crop has been planted, with 74% emerged.
NASS Iowa: 10:03Reports of oats starting to head were received. Oat condition rated 85% good to excellent, up six percentage points from last week. 6% of the state's first cutting of alfalfa hay has been completed. The first hay rating of the year showed 84% in good to excellent condition. Pasture condition rated 64% good to excellent, up four percentage points from last week.
NASS Iowa: 10:34Livestock were reported to be in good condition with some cows and calves turned out on grass. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Iowa. For the USDA NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office, this is Rebecca Alter.
NASS Illinois: 10:52Hello, everyone. This is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland region, and this is the Illinois crop progress and condition report. There were four point eight days suitable for field work in the week ending May 11. Topsoil moisture supply was rated at 3% very short, 16% short, 54% adequate and 27% surplus. Corn planted has reached 54% compared to the five year average of 60%, corn emerged has now reached 25% compared to the five year average of 26%.
NASS Illinois: 11:25For soybeans, the planted has now reached 51% compared to the five year average of 48, and the soybeans emerged has now reached 22% compared to the five year average of 18. For the Illinois winter wheat crop, the winter wheat headed has reached 46% compared to the five year average of 57, and the winter wheat condition was rated 1% very poor, 5% poor, 34% fair, 49% good, and 11% excellent. For our Illinois cattlemen, the pasture conditions were rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 24% fair, 47% good, and 24% excellent. Again, is Brad Summa, Director of the USDA NASS Heartland Region, serving the farmers and ranchers in Illinois. Have a great week, everyone.
NASS Indiana: 12:14I'm Nathaniel Wernske with USDA NASS. This week, Indiana topsoil moisture rated 91% adequate to surplus for the week ending May 11. Subsoil moisture rated 84% adequate to surplus. Days suitable for fieldwork were four days. Corn planted was 45% close to the five year average.
NASS Indiana: 12:34Corn emerged was nineteen percent, '5 percentage points ahead of last year in the five year average. The soybean crop planted was 41%, seven percentage points ahead of last year. Soybean emerge was slightly ahead of last year and the five year average at 14%. Winter wheat jointed was 78, nine percentage points behind last year. Winter wheat headed was at 31%, twelve percentage points behind last year, but five percentage points ahead of the five year average.
NASS Indiana: 13:06The crop was rated 71% good to excellent. 1% of the first cutting of hay was complete. Pasture range conditions rated 73% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Indiana. I am Nathaniel Wernski for USDA NASS.
Todd Gleason: 13:24One other state to check-in on, Minnesota, where unseasonably hot dry weather yielded about 6.6 suitable field work last week. They did have 65% adequate topsoil moisture, and farmers there took advantage, making substantial planting progress. Corn planting was 75% complete in Minnesota, hitting that mark six days sooner than both last year and the five year average. 30% of the 2025 corn crop had emerged about five days ahead of average soybeans in Minnesota, fifty two percent planted eight days ahead of the 2024 season, six days earlier than average at 14%. Soybean emergence was about a week ahead of the five year average there.
Todd Gleason: 14:11Our thanks go to the state statisticians for their weekly updates of crop progress across their regions in the Midwest. Let's see now if we can unwrap the weekend events that took place in Switzerland as they related to yesterday's world agricultural supply and demand estimates and the ninety day pause between China and The United States as it relates to the trade war. We'll start with a story by Matt Kay, who's with the Burns Bureau out of Washington DC and provided this information via the NAFB, the National Association of Farm Broadcasting. Reciprocal tariffs, he writes, are coming off, but ag tariffs are staying on despite China's agreeing in Geneva to a ninety day pause in its tariff war with US. The US and China agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs by a 15% while retaining an additional 10% tariff.
Todd Gleason: 15:19Other US industry specific levies on metals, autos, and over fentanyl remained during the pause. And the fentanyl linked duty means China's Ten or 15% levies on US soybeans, corn, wheat, fruit, pork, and poultry will also remain in place. Here's treasury secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC. We still have the 20 fentanyl tariffs that were put on, in February. The Trump administration now hopes to open China in a much broader deal as trade talks continued toward reducing America's almost $300,000,000,000 deficit with China.
Todd Gleason: 15:59Trump plans to speak with China's President Xi Jinping at the end of the week. So how did the weekend events impact yesterday's USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimate? Well, Rod Bain at USDA has more from the chief economist there.
Rod Bain: 16:18An already exciting May USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand became more so in the days leading up to it, even the day of for that matter. Chief Economist Seth Meyer with the reminder that May starts the new marketing year for crops and offers the first look at the 02/1926 livestock production forecast. But additional factors leading up to the Bay WASDE included
Seth Meyer: 16:46Prohibitively high tariffs on China, and we were still trading live animals with Mexico.
Rod Bain: 16:51Bayer reminds us of the consideration caveat of policy in place the day of the WASDE crafting a release. So within the hours leading up to the May WASDE
Seth Meyer: 17:02Both we had a pretty drastic rollback in tariffs with China and also a prohibition on live animal trade with Mexico because of steers, feeder cattle, horses, etcetera because of new world screwworm incidents in the country of Mexico and fears of an outbreak in The US.
Rod Bain: 17:20Resulting in a same day readjustment of the WASDE prior to its release. How did the changes appear within the May world supply and demand estimates? World Agricultural Outlook board chair Mark Chakodowski says regarding a commodity that is among China's top import products, soybeans.
WOAB Chair: 17:38Global soybean supply and use focused primarily on the new crop year because that's where all of the activity is and where most of the impacts of any tariff changes, trade policy changes would show up.
Rod Bain: 17:49And in terms of beef production and supply forecast for the 02/2526 marketing years, as it applies to the latest ban of Mexican cattle imports due to new world screwworm concerns
WOAB Chair: 18:03We're forecasting beef production in The US for 2025 to be down by about 280,000,000 pounds from what we were forecasting last month, and that reduction reflects those reduced supplies from Mexico, which more than offset the fact that carcass weights have been increasing. That would be down 1,280,000,000 pounds from 2025. So a pretty sharp tightening of US beef supplies.
Rod Bain: 18:32I'm Rod Bain reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington DC.
Todd Gleason: 18:37So I know that probably did not clear up things. Let me see if I can walk us through it. Secretary of treasury Scott Bessent says that the 20% fentanyl duty The US placed on China remains in place, and therefore the countervailing duty China has imposed on US corn, wheat, and soybean imports also remains in place. Those are 15% for corn and wheat and 10% for soybeans. That was in February.
Todd Gleason: 19:07And then the president imposed a 125% tariff in April and China countered with an equal one twenty five, it did not match any further increases that would have been to the one forty five. Yesterday, the president amended that 125% executive order so that it reflects a 34% tariff rate instead of which 10% remains in place during the agreed upon ninety day pause. And the EO appears to have simply removed the extra 20% tariff that had pushed the 01/2025 to 145%. So clarifying the current tariff rate on goods coming into The United States from China is 34% starting tomorrow, with the caveat that for the ninety day period, it will be just 10%. So we know at the end of ninety days, if no new agreements are reached, The US will impose a 34% tariff on goods coming into The US.
Todd Gleason: 20:09There's a different rate FYI for packages with values of less than $100 but will stick with the 34%. So during the pause again, I believe but have not confirmed, US exports of corn and wheat will be subject to a 25% tariff and soybeans to a 20% tariff. This is the 10 baseline plus the fentanyl based retaliatory duty. Those numbers should no agreements be reached should go up to 4944% respectively if the ninety day pause expires without an agreement. The new 34% tariff rate instead of the one twenty five plus the fentanyl ten percent duty in the case of soybeans equals 44% starting at the end of the ninety day pause.
Todd Gleason: 20:58Trying to simplify, 10% for ninety days, thirty four percent thereafter, plus the fentanyl duty is 44% for soybeans, 49% for corn and wheat. To be honest, I have no idea if those numbers are actually correct, but they look like they should be. I also do not know if those are the figures USDA used in yesterday's world agricultural supply and demand estimates report. Don Day is here with day weather out of Cheyenne, Wyoming to take a look at the forecast. Hi, Don.
Todd Gleason: 21:35Thanks for being with us. Let's begin here in The United States. Can you work your way from the Northwest to the Southeast across the Corn Belt, please?
Don Day: 21:43Well, first of all, for the Northwest, there's rain in the forecast. Looks like a, wet period of weather's coming to the Dakotas, especially the Eastern side of both North and South Dakota, western Minnesota, northwest Iowa, a good part of North Central And Northeastern Nebraska. We'll see a couple of storm systems between now and the middle of next week that will bring some beneficial rains to those areas. Now the heavier rain is not going to extend into the Central Or Eastern Corn Belt while there will be some shower and thunderstorm activity at times over the next week. It's those Northwest areas which have been pretty dry here lately that are gonna have the best chance of getting rained on.
Todd Gleason: 22:23And then looking to the eastern part of that, drier, but is there rainfall the further out we get, do you suppose?
Don Day: 22:30Yeah. There's going to be some. We're gonna see later in the forecast period. Now this would be, let's say, after a week from today. So we got the ten to fourteen days.
Don Day: 22:40We'll see, especially the southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, have some shower and thunderstorm activity starting to increase, along with some temperature readings that are still gonna be bouncing up and down
Todd Gleason: 22:52a bit. Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it, Don.
Don Day: 22:54Thank you.
Todd Gleason: 22:55Don Deys with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media online on demand at willag.0rg. I'm extension's Todd Gleason.