- Ben Brown, University of Missouri
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket dot net.
Todd Gleason: 00:16We'll turn our attention to a broader view of the landscape as it relates to trade and exports particularly with Ben Brown. He's at the University of Missouri and with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute there. And then we'll take up the weather forecast, those dust storms that took place on Friday too as we talk about the climate with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics, and we'll do all of that on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like at willag.org.
Todd Gleason: 00:53Our theme music is produced and performed in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason.
announcer: 01:01Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: 01:06July corn for the day settled $4.47 and a half. It finished four higher. September at 04:28 and a quarter, up six and three quarters. And December at four forty one and three quarters, six and a quarter higher July beans $10.50 and 3 quarters of a cent, 3 quarters of a cent higher August soybeans up a penny and a half a bushel settlement price there at $10.47 and 3 quarters and new crop November soybeans $10.37 up one and a half cents. The bean meal 80¢ lower, the bean oil 51¢ higher.
Todd Gleason: 01:36Wheat futures July up 4¢ in the soft red harvest month at $5.29. The hard red July at $5.22 and 3 quarters a bushel up 6 and a quarter cents for the wheat. Live cattle futures at $2.00 7, 90 2 and a half, up a buck 17 and a half, feeders at $2.97, 40 7 and a half, a settlement price 12 and a half cents lower, and lean hogs down 60¢ today at a hundred and $3.57 and a half cents per hundred pounds in the July contract. Crude oil, $72.22 a barrel, up 25¢. Diesel fuel about a penny lower for the day at $2.00 9 and a tenth of a cent per gallon.
Todd Gleason: 02:14That's diesel fuel or The US low sulfur diesel out of New York. And then the gasoline on the wholesale price at $2.09 and 2 tenths of a cent, just about unchanged for the day. Here to talk about these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He's with AgMarket.net. Thank you for being with us again on Monday.
Todd Gleason: 02:34Kurt, well, you've been watching closely in the marketplace.
Ben Brown: 02:37Well, we
Curt Kimmel: 02:37had some giddy up earlier this morning, and, hopefully, this trend will continue. I kinda like Mondays here with their markets. Make Mondays great again in the marketplace, but combination of things, Todd, I think a part of it was Saudi Arabia coming in, buying 621,000 optioned origin wheat. And with the the presidential, tour of The Middle East there, maybe we're we we got a little sign going here. We're starting to develop some relationships here, and that kinda helped the wheat, have some strength there a little bit.
Curt Kimmel: 03:09That kinda fizzed out during the day, but it was manageable to see it close anywhere from 3 to 6¢ higher. But the ongoing moisture situation, particularly in the southern third of the growing region here, just continues to one system after another. I didn't get a visit with a whole lot of people today, but I know last week's visit with quite a few producers, it still has quite a bit of seed still in the shed and kinda waiting, trying to get a window here to go. This is just not happening. But as a nation, we're scooting quite long here nicely.
Curt Kimmel: 03:42Sept in progress expected to show 78% of the corn crop in the ground versus 62% last week and about 70%, a year ago. Bean progress, 64%. They're looking from anywhere from 61 to 70 as the range, 48 last week, and about, 62% a year ago. We're we're we're above the averages, but from here on out, particularly corn, we start putting corn in later. And these forecasts come true of some warmer temperatures later on here in the growing season.
Curt Kimmel: 04:19It could start to question whether or not we're getting any weather premium in the marketplace. So I think it was a function of the market here, you know, buying corn, selling beans, buying wheat, selling beans, and and putting a little premium back in the marketplace. Technically, pretty good day. We held depends which market you're looking at. We held, last Friday's lows, squeaked higher here today.
Curt Kimmel: 04:45If you look at some of the market technical charts in through here, we're starting to see some bullish trend divergences start to kick in here. So if we can see some follow through in here, maybe we get the momentum going higher. There is a seasonal up, more research, long term fifteen year seasonal chart, if you have a chance to look at that. It shows, you know, a little bit of a low here mid May and some strength into early June. So with the market incredibly oversold, it's probably due to have some upside momentum here.
Curt Kimmel: 05:16The commodity funds went from huge longs to short. They were short about 85,000 contracts of corn. They sold over 200,000 contracts here over the last week or two, and they're slightly along the soybean complex. So we'll see how things unfold in through here, but I think it's a little bit of a momentum up move here, as we put a little weather premium back in the marketplace here for a day or two.
Todd Gleason: 05:42Do you have upside targets for corn and soybeans at this point?
Curt Kimmel: 05:45Well, on that long term, yeah, $6 corn and probably $12 peas at the weather kicks in.
Todd Gleason: 05:55Those are not the upsides I was talking about. About.
Curt Kimmel: 05:57Oh. Oh.
Todd Gleason: 06:01So something maybe a little closer at hand.
Curt Kimmel: 06:08I think near term and through here, the the old crop corn demand's strong. We lost a little bit on the spread here, between old crop and new crop, but, on this July corn, you you can look for a move back to four sixty. New crop December, maybe back up to four fifty to test that resistance there. Those are achievable. That that's not that far away.
Curt Kimmel: 06:31Now we start going above those levels, we can see a little bit of fireworks to upside. On the July beans, we settled here at ten fifty. I imagine we get back up to this ten seventy level, and new crop November beans were closed here at 10:37. I imagine back towards that, ten fifty, 10 50 five. Those are kinda short term upside objectives.
Curt Kimmel: 06:53When you look at the big picture in here, I believe volatility is gonna come back into the marketplace. We gotta expect some fairly wide swings, as we start to trend the political wind, which way it's blowing, and also weather, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 07:06Anything else before I let you go?
Curt Kimmel: 07:08No. It's just one of these markets here where we're gonna have some giddy up here as we move forward. It's gonna be more and more exciting here as we get into the growing season.
Todd Gleason: 07:19Hey. Thank you much. We appreciate it.
Curt Kimmel: 07:20You bet. Take care.
Todd Gleason: 07:21You too. Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Just a quick reminder that this Friday afternoon, if you're out of the field and you're close enough by Riggs Beer in Urbana, there will be a wheat, barley, and triticale field day hosted by University of Illinois Crop Sciences. Come join us at Riggs Beer at Friday afternoon from three to six. We're now joined by Ben Brown, agricultural economist with University of Missouri, an extension there, and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
Todd Gleason: 08:04Hello, Ben. Thank you for being with us again on a Monday. Let's talk about the export picture for corn, soybeans and wheat if you'd like. How are we doing and what are your expectations for the new crop years of each of those going forward given the trade policies that are in limbo?
Ben Brown: 08:26Sure. Yeah. So let me let's go back this year. I'm gonna answer your question directly, but let's go back and then to help answer the question moving forward. So, you know, probably last summer, early last fall, so somewhere in that July, August, September timeframe, I was of the opinion and had data to kind of back it up that we could see very strong corn exports for the 2024, '20 '20 '5, which is our old crop marketing year.
Ben Brown: 08:53And, you know, I I thought that that had the opportunity to be very strong. And the reason I felt that that was the case is because when you look at all of the global corn supply, we we were one of the few places in the world that had enough corn to really have a robust export program. And and, yes, Brazil has has increased corn production this spring. They they have, you know, some some exportable supplies of corn, but they they also use quite a bit of corn themselves, and they're gonna keep a lot of that domestically feed and even their domestic ethanol use. And so the reason I say we need to go back to then go forward is if I'm making an estimate about corn exports for next year, for the 2526 marketing year, our new crop marketing year, I have to say, I think the picture looks very similar to where I was last year in the early fall.
Ben Brown: 09:46It's it's setting up to where if we have good production this summer, right, and by good production, I mean, let's just call it, you know, trend line to even maybe slightly below trend line yields, I think we can still have a very robust export program. Now where that export program really starts to taper is if we have a poor harvest here in The United States. If we if we whack, let's just say we we shrink national average yields anywhere between, I'm gonna say, six and ten bushels an acre, somewhere in there, then we're gonna start pulling back out of our exportable supplies. We're gonna keep that supply domestically. That's gonna really shrink that that export window.
Ben Brown: 10:22So I think on the corn side, with solid production, and it doesn't even have to be, you know, that that trend line yield, we could we could pull back a little bit from that trend line yield and still, I think, have a have a pretty robust corn export picture. The reason is is is we have corn. The global market needs corn, and and it creates this happy marriage. Right? So I I think that's the the story here.
Ben Brown: 10:46You know? I think that's where we could hit on the the corn side. The wheat side, to stick with feed grains, I'll make this relatively simple. Wheat has struggled, just because we've seen a lot of cheaper wheat on the on the global market. You know, Canada, at least right now, appears like their spring wheat crop, you know, it's early, it's very early in the season, but you know, it appears that there's wheat that's going to compete with The U.
Ben Brown: 11:07S. Wheat market and that's going to kind of create some headwinds for us. And then on the soybean side, this is where I think the trade policy really kind of becomes a little bit more uncertain is where we sit today. You know, lot of people would point and say, the trade policy isn't having a large impact, relatively large impact in soybean exports today. We have to look and say, okay, well, don't ship a lot of soybeans this time of year.
Ben Brown: 11:31We're not selling a lot of soybeans this time of year. We do have some sales on the books for for that new crop twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six market. However, we're still probably a couple of months away, from really seeing international buyers come into the market and try to buy soybeans. And, you know, if the tariffs and if, you know, some of the trade restrictions are are still front of mind and still, you know, in the market environment, you know, yes, we'll maybe see, you know, whether there's any impact from, you know, how much of an impact there is from from that in terms of soybean exports. So I say all that because I you know, my understanding or at least my perception is a lot of market analysts don't think that we're gonna be in the same trade situation three, four months from now that we are today.
Ben Brown: 12:18Right? It could be better. It could worse. It might be the same, but I think a lot of people think it's going to be something different than where we're at today. And that'll ultimately derive what soybean exports look like in the new marketing year.
Todd Gleason: 12:29Okay, so two things, both from the USDA numbers, we'll start with corn, they say 2,675,000,000 bushels of exports, which is a big number for corn. What are you using in your supply and demand table?
Ben Brown: 12:43Yeah, I wouldn't be that far off. I'm maybe just a little bit softer still 2.6 is where I think we could be given the expected production. Like I said, I'm I'm maybe a little bit smaller than USDA because, you know, I'm not, at least in my personal, you know, outlook here, I'm I'm not sure we we hit those trend line yields. That's not to say we can't. It's just like, you know, it's it's dry enough, and we've seen some challenges with with planting and just different parts and uneasiness in terms of or, you know, variability in terms of the the emergence.
Ben Brown: 13:17So still well within the possibility of a trend line yield. Don't get me wrong. It's still there. It's just like I I think we we have an environment to maybe a little bit softer production that could be overshadowed with acreage, by the way. So I I'm giving you all sorts of different angles here, and I'm basically saying nothing, Todd.
Ben Brown: 13:34But to answer your question exactly is I have a little bit smaller export number for for next year. However, still very large, and and still a very robust and strong corn export picture.
Todd Gleason: 13:47And then a number I still don't quite understand from USDA for their exports, which is the soybeans. Therefore new crop at 1,815,000,000 bushels. By comparison, they're at what 1,850,000,000 bushels for the old crop. They say they used poll trade policy in place. And I don't quite get that, but they've got a good number.
Todd Gleason: 14:14What are you using?
Ben Brown: 14:15Well, okay. So I would agree with you. Right? Like that is if if they are taking trade policy in place, right, that would that would include basically turning off, you know, US soybeans into the Chinese market. Right?
Ben Brown: 14:28Like, that's that's kind of what that that signals is, is we just when you add in the tariffs, just don't compete. Now there's a lot of shifting. And this is something people always talk about, well, Brazil just sells beans to China, We in The United States sell our beans to other places where we can compete. And I I agree that that's what happens. Right?
Ben Brown: 14:50Like, we see that to some extent. But, you know, the the, I guess, the least cost route would be that whoever's got the soybeans, the cheapest at the time would sell into whatever market that that fits into. Right? And and so if you do compare, you know, a new shuffled trade environment to, you know, the baseline with no tariffs, you know, it's probably a little bit more of an export potential for for soybeans, higher value, just a little bit. Right?
Ben Brown: 15:19That's what economic theory would tell us. But but, certainly, like, you know, we will still sell soybeans into the international markets. It just might not all be China. There'd be some shuffling and and shifts around. And and that's why that number's in there at what it is is because you look at, again, you look at this global picture, a lot of soybeans on the global market, but there's still markets out there that need soybeans, and and we can we can fill those markets or provide soybeans in those markets.
Todd Gleason: 15:47So what number are you using?
Ben Brown: 15:48Yeah. So we wouldn't be too far. We'd be right around that 1.8, of course.
Todd Gleason: 15:54With current trade policy, so you're you're really are the shuffle under current trade policy is is just a shuffle mostly.
Ben Brown: 16:02You lose a little bit. Right? So that's what that's what yeah. You don't you lose much. You lose some, but not a lot.
Ben Brown: 16:08And it it shuffles around to different markets. And, you know, we we still believe that there's gonna be markets. And and but by believe, I mean, economically, we do fit into places even with that, you know, added 10% tariff for most places, you know, and and there's some other things that that go into play, not just that 10% tariff, but, you know, some other products. Even with that, we still compete competitively into some markets that we think we can ship soybeans to.
Todd Gleason: 16:36Anything else that we should discuss for the day?
Ben Brown: 16:38So the other thing that I would just simply say, and maybe you've already covered this, is when it comes to the soybean outlook moving forward, we've seen soybeans kind of rally in the last couple weeks and then fall, in the last couple of weeks based on expectations around biofuel. And so I you know, we saw the rally when when there was some friendly news, rumors about, you know, volume obligations for biofuel. And then when EPA sent over their proposals to the White House, you know, then we saw kind of the unraveling of the soybean oil market and in turn soybeans. And and so I just remind folks that that is, you know, that is part of this is is a policy around biofuels, and and the expectations, not just the physical policy, but the expectations around that policy. And that's been creating a little bit of up and down here the last couple of weeks.
Todd Gleason: 17:26We'll learn more as they release more information. Thank you, Ben.
Ben Brown: 17:29Yep. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 17:30That's Ben Brown. He's an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, Extension, and FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics now joins us to take a look at the weather forecast. Hello, Mark. Thank you for being with us Friday of last week.
Todd Gleason: 18:01I was making the trip in the afternoon back from a family funeral in Lincoln, and I happened to get caught up in the dust storms. I know better. We got to McLean or 136. I was gonna pull off there. They had it blocked.
Todd Gleason: 18:18I went ahead and went north to Bloomington and then turned back south. So I was on Interstate 55 and then back south on 784 towards Champaign. I gotta tell you, I it was just a mistake. It was scary. We came to a full stop at Leroy for just a bit.
Todd Gleason: 18:35I think there was an accident there. I don't think at some point. It was kind of clear by the time I got there, but we did come to a full stop. But we came to a full stop before that. And, as we were coming out of Bloomington, but before we got to Downs, the winds had kicked the dust up, and we were just coming into the dust storm.
Todd Gleason: 18:55We were slowing down nicely. I happened to be in front of a semi. He wasn't paying enough attention. And as we slowed down, and it wasn't fast, he headed for the shoulder. I watched him.
Todd Gleason: 19:06I wasn't sure exactly what my escape route was. It was gonna be the let to the left into the passing lane. But, that's just awful. Just truly awful. The conditions, I guess, were just right to make all a lot of those things happen.
Todd Gleason: 19:20What was it about the weather on that day that caused so easy for the dust to kick up into the air?
Mark Russo: 19:27Yeah. Well, Todd, yes. Certainly an extremely rare situation. One of the primary reasons of what triggered the dust storm was actually what we call outflow boundary winds from severe thunderstorms in Central Illinois. They they kicked up the dust, had wind gusts over 60 miles per hour, and that all just went in a northward direction from the Bloomington area all the way northward here in the Chicago area.
Mark Russo: 19:56We got impacted by the dust to a significant extent. In fact, it was, you know, the first kind of dust storm warning issued for the Chicago area from the National Weather Service on record and kind of, you know, going going through it myself here. A a pretty pretty unique and kind of strange situation here being in an urban area seeing that much dust.
Todd Gleason: 20:19Yeah. I I did get the, National Weather Service dust storm warning, although I was already at a full stop on the interstate when that arrived. So it was a little late, but at least a warning did come out. And you could see it. I mean, as I came up on it, I knew what was happening.
Todd Gleason: 20:35I could see that. It looks from the ground level when it's just in the Flat Prairie, very much like a storm except sort of flip. So it's on horizon as opposed as opposed to further up into the horizon. So anyway, I just really tough. Just to caution, when you see those, just avoid them, just stop.
Todd Gleason: 20:59It's not worth driving into. Okay. Given that, what's this week look like for producers across the Midwest as it relates to finishing up their planting season and the work that they'll need to do to control weeds and other things going forward?
Mark Russo: 21:13Yeah. It's looking rainier here across much of the Midwest, especially over the next two to three days. And so any lingering planting here will slow down, but then those rains will also help settle the dust in some of those areas. But overall, it'll boost soil moisture as well for newly planted crops. As we look out beyond into next week, it does look like the Southern Midwest will continue to see rains, while the northern areas will actually begin to dry out again, or at least shift into a drier mode.
Mark Russo: 21:50The other item of note is that temperatures much of this week into the start of next week will be unseasonably cool, so that will slow down germination and growth. But out at the end of the two week outlook, we do see temperatures kind of returning back to more seasonal levels.
Todd Gleason: 22:06Anything else we should cover before I let you go?
Mark Russo: 22:09No. Those are the main highlights, which, again, overall, it's generally favorable for this latter portion of planting here across the vast majority of the Corn Belt.
Todd Gleason: 22:17Thank you much, Mark.
Mark Russo: 22:19You're welcome, Doug.
Todd Gleason: 22:20Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois public medium. It is public radio for farming world. One final note on the dust storms from Friday. Part of the reason that the dust storms were able to kick up was because the winds were coming mostly straight out of the South, blowing straight into the North. That means they were following the rose most farm fields are either planted east west or north south, the winds were running with the rose.
Todd Gleason: 22:52And during the planting season, particularly in the most recent set of years, the farm fields are prepped in a way that makes the seed bed really easy to plant. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.