May 20 | Closing Market Report

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- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Logan County IL Board Imposes 12 Month Data Center Moratorium
- Strait of Hormuz Closure May Trigger Years-Long Recovery
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 20th day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He is at TGM, that's Total Grain Marketing, right here in Champaign County, Illinois. In Logan County, Illinois, last night, the board there took up a moratorium potentially on data centers over the next 90 days. There were some changes to that. You will hear about those and how it voted. Then we will turn our attention to gas, oil, diesel fuel, and the Strait of Hormuz. We will do that with Patrick De Haan. He is the lead analyst at GasBuddy, GasBuddy.com. As we close out our time together, we will talk with Drew Lerner today from World Weather, Incorporated in Kansas City about this lengthy spring that we have had and the roller coaster ride as it has related to temperatures. All on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at WILLAg.org.

Announcer: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: July corn for the day finished nine and a half cents lower at $4.65 and three-quarters of a cent. The September at $4.72 and a half, down nine. December at $4.89 and a quarter, eight and a half cents lower. July soybeans, nine and three-quarters lower. Settlement price at $11.99 and three-quarters of a cent a bushel. The November at $11.93 and a half for the new crop, down nine and a half cents. Bean meal futures, a buck 40 lower. Bean oil, 78 cents lower for the day. Wheat futures, soft red in the harvest month, July at $6.60 and a half, down six and three-quarters of a cent. In the hard red, July at $6.98 and three-quarters, finished a nickel lower on the afternoon. Live cattle futures, a buck 95 lower at $245.30 per hundred pounds. Feeder cattle up $2.12 and a half at $365.77 and a half. Lean hogs, $101.97 and a half cents, down 17 and a half. Crude oil in the WTI down $5.89 at $98.26. Crude oil in the Brent at $104.98 a barrel, down $6.26. Gasoline for the wholesale price, 19 and a half cents lower. It finished at $3.37 and nine-tenths of a cent at the CME Group.

02:37 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM, that's TotalGrainMarketing.com, on this Wednesday to take a look at what happened in Chicago for the day. Thanks for being with us. We have had a couple of good days and then have fallen off the last two days in the marketplace. Tell me what you think has been happening there.

Greg Johnson: I think we saw an initial positive reaction to the news from the Trump Xi visit. Friday we were disappointed, but then Sunday they released the fact sheet that said they were going to buy more products. It could be soybeans, it may not be soybeans, but it sounds like the trade believes that at least 25 million metric tons will get bought. Whether that is calendar year or crop year, that is still to be decided or undetermined. Still, that is demand from China that a month ago we were not sure we were going to have. The market responded positively to that news on Sunday. We had big gains on Monday and got back up to the contract highs. December corn got up close to $5.05. The November beans got over $12. Those are good places to sell if you are going to have a crop. Those are the highest prices we have seen in a while, and farmers did a pretty good job of rewarding the market and selling into that. The last couple of days, we have seen some profit-taking aided by the fact that crude oil has sold off. Every other day is a different rumor, but today the rumor is that we are closer to an agreement ending the war in the Middle East. Tomorrow could be completely different, but oil is down $5 a barrel today and that is pressuring corn, wheat, and soybeans. The initial news over the weekend was positive. With everything else being factored in, we are probably looking a little negative. The weather is wet this week, and some people want rain as they are done planting. Next week looks like there will be a window, and that should allow us to get most of the rest of the crop planted. It is probably a little later than what most people would hope for, but it is still May. If we get the crop in the ground in May, I still think we have a good chance to have something close to an average crop.

Todd Gleason: If you were to look into a normal growing season, how would you expect prices to play out over the months of June, July, and August?

Greg Johnson: I think we still would have one more rally, one more potential weather scare as we get close to pollination. Once we get it planted, the market has a tendency to sell off a little bit. Then we start talking about pollination weather and pod-filling weather. With all the talk about the super El Niño, that might keep the funds on the long side. That might give farmers another chance to sell corn and beans at something over $5 on the board and over $12 on the beans. Keep in mind we also have an acreage report on June 30th. If those acres shift at all, that would move the market as well. We have the acreage report on June 30th, the funds long, and then the pollination and seed fill weather for the soybeans coming up in July and August. Those are the things keeping the market on edge at this point.

Todd Gleason: It was the acreage that I was going to ask you about next. Do you have any indication given the longer duration of the planting season, unlike some years where it all happens within a month's timeframe, has that changed acreage that producers thought they were going to put in the ground very much, or does it more likely leave it as it was?

Greg Johnson: The last couple of years, we have actually increased the corn acres from the March report to the June report. This time, that March report came in a little bit higher than what the traders were looking for. With the higher input costs, thinking that we are going to have even more corn acres, there is a lot of corn that has yet to be planted. There is some corn that has been planted the first time that got flooded out and will have to be replanted. With the higher input costs, soybeans still look like the better opportunity. I am thinking that we will see more bean acres, maybe up to a million more bean acres when that June 30th report comes out, and anywhere from a half a million to a million less acres of corn than what we saw on the March report.

Todd Gleason: Interesting. If you put that into context with what you think is coming out of Brazil for corn or soybeans, and soybeans basically shipping now, how should producers play that out in their mind, because there will be a lot of grain on the marketplace?

Greg Johnson: Exactly. You have to look at it short-term and long-term. Short-term, if you have old crop corn or beans left, you probably want to take advantage of these prices. They are not bad. If you are going to hold on longer term, you will likely see higher prices for corn, but you may have to wait until July or August. I wouldn't talk anybody out of selling old crop corn or beans at these prices. If you are taking a longer-term view, which most farmers can do for the new crop, it doesn't matter whether you sell it in May, June, July, or August. You want to get the highest price you can. The possibility is that we will revisit those contract highs and maybe even make new contract highs in corn. It may take that June 30th acreage report, some pollination weather, and maybe some business out of China. If China honors these agreements, they will start buying some commodities from us. I don't expect them to buy soybeans from us right away. They will probably wait for a lull in the market, which might be right before harvest. They can buy all the beans they need for the time being out of Brazil and Argentina. They probably won't buy beans from us until August or September. We could see beans go lower into the fall before China shows up to buy those beans. For corn, with fewer acres, higher input costs, inflation, the funds being long, and possibly China buying corn, all those things give us a pretty good chance to revisit the old highs and maybe make new highs in corn.

Todd Gleason: Thanks much. We will talk with you again next week.

Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM. That is TotalGrainMarketing.com.

09:47 Logan County IL Board Imposes 12 Month Data Center Moratorium

Todd Gleason: Just one news item for the day. The Logan County Board last night met to further discuss a proposed data center near Latham, outside of Decatur. It had expected to vote on a 90-day moratorium for this calendar year, but instead was presented with an amended motion to impose a 12-month freeze on consideration. To the delight of the county residents in attendance mostly, the motion passed.

Natural Sound Meeting: Motion passes 6-3. [Applause]

Todd Gleason: For its part, the company hoping to build the data center, Hut 8 out of Miami, Florida, says it respects the board's authority and the local process by which the decision was reached. It is grateful to the officials, residents, landowners, and partners who engaged with them throughout the process. Hut 8 says in a written response that it is assessing the implications for the proposed project and will determine the appropriate path forward in the coming weeks.

10:54 Strait of Hormuz Closure May Trigger Years-Long Recovery

Todd Gleason: I am University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We are now joined by Patrick De Haan. He is an analyst with GasBuddy. Thanks for being with us, Patrick. You have been following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact it has had on the price of crude oil, gasoline across the United States, and other products like diesel fuel and jet fuel. What are your biggest concerns at this point related to the marketplace?

Patrick De Haan: Everything. The Strait of Hormuz is all-encompassing. It is blocking millions of barrels of oil on a daily basis, having vast impacts on other products like base motor oils. The price of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline are all spiking. Americans are very reliant on various forms of oil for energy, and it is having a vast impact across the board, from gas prices to the price Americans pay when they go to the grocery store and far beyond that. It is a vast impact that simply cannot be understated given how this situation has now continued for 80 days.

Todd Gleason: Because I deal with farmers and the agricultural industry, I am wondering if you have some thoughts about how long it might take the price of crude to come back down to pre-war levels.

Patrick De Haan: Pre-war levels may take a very long period of time. As global oil inventories, specifically U.S. strategic reserves as well as Japanese and other strategic reserves become depleted, there is still a finite amount of capacity to bring those inventories back to normal levels. That could take the better part of, I estimate, as many as 80 weeks. For every day that the strait remains closed, it may take roughly a week to catch up. For global oil inventories to completely return to their pre-war level, we are talking about getting into mid and late 2027 until everything fully recovers. There would be price relief rather immediately, but it is still going to take a long period of time for that garden hose to refill an Olympic-sized swimming pool with oil.

Todd Gleason: One of the other things I have seen you posting about is oil for engines. Is that going to be an issue at some point in time?

Patrick De Haan: It depends. There are many different types of motor oils. Some of those types of oils, especially those that are manufacturer-specific, that have additives, or those ultra-lightweight oils like 0W-5, 0W-8, 0W-20, may start to see some availability disruptions. Prices are likely the first thing to react. Some of these base oils come from areas of the Middle East where there are special motor oil and lubricant factories that have been impacted negatively by the blockade. We are starting to see the ripple effects now. Various manufacturers, including Nissan and Toyota, have informed their dealers that because of the reduction in supply of specific types of oils, they are allowing their dealers to utilize other weights of oils that are more readily available. We probably will see more of that. Specific lubricant facilities in the Middle East, in Qatar specifically, are going to be impacted, which impacts the broader supply chain. Your next oil change is likely to be more expensive. At worst, your manufacturer may have to allow for a temporary substitution of the oil that your vehicle uses. You are still going to be able to find motor oil; it is just likely to be impacted by the price.

Todd Gleason: Patrick, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

Patrick De Haan: Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: That is Patrick De Haan. He is with GasBuddy. You can find them at GasBuddy.com or download the GasBuddy app to your phone.

15:37 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Todd Gleason: Let's take a look now at what has been happening in the world of agricultural weather across the planet. Drew Lerner is here. He is with World Weather, Incorporated in Kansas City. Let's start in the hard red winter wheat growing regions. Did they pick up rainfall out of these larger events, and if so, is the crop in a space where it might be able to garner some help from it?

Drew Lerner: It is amazing how many times we have had the opportunity for meaningful rain and missed it or gotten only a portion of what was advertised. Most of the high plains have not had enough well-organized precipitation where everybody was impacted over these past couple of weeks, and it is still very dry. On top of that, we are seeing wild temperature swings. We had more frost and freezes this week in Colorado, parts of Nebraska, and Northwest Kansas. It got down to about 39 this past week. The bottom line is this wheat crop really has not had an opportunity to change very much. I am sure there was a benefit from the precipitation when it was occurring, and the cooler days have helped to conserve moisture, but we have also had heat. Last weekend, temperatures from the Texas Panhandle to Central Kansas were at 95 to 106 degrees. When you are already running on the low side of the moisture profile and crops are limping along, it was a stressful period. We followed that up with cold weather these past couple of days. In the longer run, I do not see a tremendous amount of change. There will be some more showers scattering across the region, but we are going to end up coming up short on the moisture for a good part of that drier area.

Todd Gleason: Speaking of cooler weather, we have been on a spring roller coaster for a long time now. Here we are on May 20th. What are your expectations going into next week for the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: I think there are a lot of folks that are a bit frustrated over the coolness, and certainly, the crops are not happy. They would all like to see warmer weather, and that is coming. Next week a ridge of high pressure will evolve. It will pass from the Midwest into the Plains, shutting down all this rain occurring in the Mid-South region and the lower Midwest. That is a week away. Once we start bringing that ridge in, it will heat up. We do have a lot of moisture in the soil, so it is going to be a humid and warm spell. Degree day accumulations will improve greatly starting about a week from now and going into the first week of June. It should be a really good time period for more aggressive fieldwork and an opportunity to firm the soil in those areas that ended up with too much moisture.

Todd Gleason: Any inkling from your perspective of what the month of June might look like for the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: The month is going to be pretty well mixed. When we get into the latter part of June, there will be some more cool air around, nothing like we have out there today, but we will get away from the warm and humid environment expected in the first half of June. In the process of moving from the warm back to the cold, we will see another period of enhanced rainfall. The month of June will end up being favorably mixed. We will have some warmth, some coolness, and we are definitely going to get some more rain. I would just like to see the temperatures stabilize and stay in a seasonably warm range for more than a couple of weeks to help the crops stimulate a better growth rate.

Todd Gleason: On the enhanced rainfall, producers in the Canadian Prairies would like some of that. Is that in the offing?

Drew Lerner: The southwest part of the prairies is still quite dry, while the northeast is too wet. There is all kinds of grumbling going on across the prairies. For the northeast, this started with the very deep snowpack they had at the end of April. It all melted at once in early May, and it has been raining off and on since. In fact, they had some snow not too long ago on top of all that. Fieldwork is way behind in that northeastern one-third of the prairies. In the southwest, it is pretty dry. They are seeing a little bit of shower activity once in a while, and the temperatures are not quite as cold there, but still coolish. Most of the prairies are behind where they ought to be. There is talk now that maybe they are going to lose a little yield potential. Definite improvement in weather is needed. The forecast over this next 10-day period looks like it will be warmer, but it is also going to continue to be wet in that northeast, so there will be some additional delay.

Todd Gleason: In South America, the dry season has arrived or should have arrived. Has it taken hold in Brazil?

Drew Lerner: It depends on where you are. In Southern Safrinha corn country, we thought they were going to have a really good crop because they got a little extra rain when the rainy season ended. In the last two weeks, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, southwestern Sao Paulo, and northwestern Parana have had between four and eight inches of rain. I think one location had nine inches. This is the dry season, and that is crazy amounts of rain. We looked at aggressively developing El Niño years like this, and strangely enough, it was wetter than normal every month from our spring season into their spring season. From May into October, every month was wetter biased. You have to come to the conclusion it might stay wetter biased for a while.

Todd Gleason: Thanks much. We will catch up with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: You bet you. Have a good one.

Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather, Incorporated in Kansas City. Joining us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at WILLAg.org. Have a good afternoon. I am U of I Extension's Todd Gleason.