May 21 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lend to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported. It's the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson.

Todd Gleason: 00:12

He's a TGN. That's total grain here in Champaign County, Illinois. We'll turn our attention to yesterday's senate hearing with RFK junior where he talked some about a MAHA commission report that's due out tomorrow and its related impact on agriculture, farm chemicals in particular. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

Todd Gleason: 00:44

It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn today settled at four dollars sixty one cents, up six and a half. September, '7 and a half higher at $4.42 and 3 quarters. And December, new crop at $4.55 and a half a bushel, 7¢ higher.

Todd Gleason: 01:05

July soybeans, ten sixty two and three quarters, nine and three quarters of a cent higher November up 11 and a quarter at $10.52 and a quarter bean meal futures a dollar 50 higher the bean oil up 33¢ soft red winter wheat up three and a quarter at $5.49 and a quarter in the July the hard red at $5.40 and a half, up four and a quarter since live cattle futures finished the day 80¢ higher. Feeder cattle were off a dollar and 7 and a half cents, and lean hogs were a dollar 2 and a half lower for the afternoon. Crude oil down 43¢ a barrel at $61.59. Diesel fuel just about a penny higher at $2.10 and a half cents a gallon. And the wholesale price of gasoline at $2.10 and 6 tenths of a cent just about unchanged on this Wednesday afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 01:56

Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com here in Champaign, the elevator that belongs to FS. Hey. Thanks so much. I appreciate you being with us.

Todd Gleason: 02:07

I was just glancing through at, the daily trade, and, you know, soybeans and corn have both had pretty good months, actually, from April and May, I feel like. And the last week's been not too bad for both of them.

Greg Johnson: 02:28

Yeah. April was a good month for corn. May has not been a good month for corn. Basically we've lost in May what we gained in April. We've been down five weeks in a row on old crop corn.

Greg Johnson: 02:41

Not a lot on some of those weeks, just a few cents here and there, but nevertheless we have been down five consecutive weeks in corn. But it looks like this week, we're gonna break that streak, and we're gonna finish higher for the week in corn. And we're gonna finish higher for the week in beans as well, which will break the two week losing streak. If you go back in the from the first of April, corn's down only a nickel from where we were on April 1, and the beans are actually up about 38¢ since the April 1. So and wheat's up about 16¢ since the April 1.

Greg Johnson: 03:16

So, corn's the only loser, and that's only a nickel. So, basically, we're in this sideways choppy pattern, wait and see, and and we're still waiting to see. It's too early to say, you know, what kind of yield we're gonna have. I would say 90% of the crop is basically planted. Unfortunately, the 10% that's not is, in Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Southern Indiana, Ohio, and maybe ninety's a little a little high.

Greg Johnson: 03:44

But basically, it's it's wrapping up in in most areas, but there's some a little bit of concern about with the rain in the forecast this week that whether, you know, whether the guys in Southern Illinois can finish up corn before the end of the month or not. So we'll next week's shaping up to be a pretty critical week for them. They they would obviously like to get corn planted in May if it gets into June. I guess I think they'll plant corn the June, but June, they'll either switch to beans or take prevent plant if, if they don't have the corn in the ground by June 5.

Todd Gleason: 04:16

Yeah. So, you know, you and I were looking at the same thing, but I was thinking about April. The beginning of, and we are now above that. I just skipped the April where we went to, what, $4.70 or thereabouts in December corn. So another 15¢ higher from where we are at this point.

Todd Gleason: 04:34

You think we can rally back that far still? I mean, there's plenty of time left for a seasonal rally, but it is about gauging where the seasonal rally might end. And I look up, I suppose, several weeks that yet to go, and anything could happen with the weather.

Greg Johnson: 04:52

Yeah. The weather is what would cause us to rally back to those old, February highs. The problem is, I think the trade is looking at the USDA numbers, 95,700,000 acres and 100 and what are they using for a yield? They're using 181. Yeah.

Todd Gleason: 05:09

181.

Greg Johnson: 05:10

One hundred 80 one. Yeah. Ninety five point three million and one hundred eighty one. And those numbers obviously could change, but they're not gonna change today or tomorrow or next week. So that's what we're that's what we have to trade off of.

Greg Johnson: 05:22

And, you know, if we have some weather problems, you know, then we can maybe start adjusting that 181 down, but, we're not gonna adjust it down today. I don't think the the traders are in any, there's just no overwhelming evidence out there that we don't have a 181 crop. So that's what we trade off of. And like I say, corn's really hanging in there, all things considered, very well. You know, like I say, we've lost a lot here in May, but we gained it in April.

Greg Johnson: 05:49

And so, you know, June and July will tell the tale, and, we're kind of in that sideways wait and see mode at this point.

Todd Gleason: 05:57

Sideways to lower since February. Right?

Greg Johnson: 06:00

Since February. Yeah. We made some highs in, mid February. I think February 18, and hindsight was the day we should have sold.

Todd Gleason: 06:06

Yeah. I'm looking at the chart. You are correct. That four seventy high or four eighty high there seems like a pretty nice place. Right?

Todd Gleason: 06:15

Oh gosh. Well

Greg Johnson: 06:16

Exactly. But December corn is four fifty something, so it's right in the middle. I mean, we talked about this trading range. I mean, this, potential range of $4 if everything goes well, $5 if we have some issues. And so we just don't know.

Greg Johnson: 06:30

And so we're at $4.5 We're exactly right in the middle. I think this is a good reminder, for producers to have offers in at that $4.7 4 point 8 0 dollars 4 point 9 0 level in case we do get a weather scare because there still is that chance that we could be $4, 4 10, 4 20, you know, by the time fall rolls around.

Todd Gleason: 06:47

Yeah. Scale in to that, probably making sales on the way up and hope that you have, the worst sales there, and it continues so you can make better sales later on in the marketing year, I suppose. For soybeans, a better picture. Why is that the case?

Greg Johnson: 07:06

I think there's some, concern that, maybe the biofuels policy could encourage, more soybean oil use, which would encourage more soybeans. I think that's part of it. We're seeing a little bit of weather ish weather related issues in Argentina, a lot of flooding. I don't think that affects their crop a lot, but every little bit helps. That that will reduce their supply, to some extent.

Greg Johnson: 07:30

We do have some hot and dry weather in China, and, we have hot and dry weather in Russia. We have snow in North Dakota. So there are some weather related issues that are kind of helping the soybeans out, but I think the main thing is the government policies, the potential for the government policies to help soybean oil and and by by default soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 07:55

Now I don't know whether this is an issue still or not. Is our crush capacity a constraint that will cause, even if there is the push for soybean oil, for there to be a constraint that so that basis might break even if prices are moving higher?

Greg Johnson: 08:15

I suppose that could happen. You know, there have been some plants that just haven't been running because they don't of the uncertainty over the government policy. I don't know how quickly those plants could get back up and running again. So I guess, yeah, there there would be a little bit of a constraint there just because it take you can't just snap your fingers and start some of these places right back up again.

Todd Gleason: 08:37

What are you watching most closely at this point in either corn, soybeans, or wheat?

Greg Johnson: 08:41

I I think the funds, it's it's interesting to watch the funds. They're short corn, and they have not been short corn in May forever. I mean, very rarely are the funds ever short corn in May because as we just talked about, we typically get some kind of a weather scare in May or June, and it's just unusual for funds to be short. But they're looking at that 95,300,000 acre number, I guess, and 181 yield, and that they seem to be comfortable staying short corn, and maybe that'll turn out to be the right thing. But, if we do see anything, out of the ordinary as far as weather is concerned, I think the funds could come back in and buy.

Greg Johnson: 09:22

And it's all about timing. Do the funds buy before the farmers sell? The farmers probably aren't going to sell before the July 4. That's historically they want to make sure their corn pollinate's in good shape before they really add to sales. That may or may not be the right thing to do, but I think that's what will happen.

Greg Johnson: 09:39

The farmers are going to be extremely tight holders until after pollination. So if the funds would happen to come in and buy corn, or soybeans for that matter before the pollination period, we could see a little bit of a bounce. So I guess I'm kinda watching to see what the funds do.

Todd Gleason: 09:54

Hey. Thank you much, Greg. We'll talk with you again next week.

Greg Johnson: 09:56

Alright. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 09:58

That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Yesterday, health and human services secretary Robert f Kennedy junior or RFK testified before a senate hearing committee. During it, Republican senator Cindy Hyde Smith from Mississippi grilled the leader of the Make America Healthy Again or MAHA Commission about a report it is expected to release tomorrow, which may be critical of farm chemical use.

Todd Gleason: 10:31

She asked Kennedy point blank if he has been able to refute fifty years of US government scientific reviews and if that would show up in the report.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 10:41

Your your information about the report is just simply wrong. The drafts that I've seen, there is not a single word in them that should worry the American foreigner.

Cindy Hyde Smith: 10:53

And you can prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt that You'll see the report.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 10:57

It's gonna be released on Thursday. Everybody will see the report. And, you know, there's nobody that has a greater commitment to the American farmer than we do. The MAHA movement collapses if we can't partner with the American farmer in producing a self safe, robust, and abundant food supply. And we understand that.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 11:20

I said during my campaign when I was running for president, and I have said repeatedly throughout this process, we cannot take any step that will put a single farmer in this country out of business. There's a million farmers who rely on glyphosate. Million farmers who rely on glyphosate. A % of corn in this country relies on glyphosate, and we all we are not gonna do anything to jeopardize that business model. We are

Cindy Hyde Smith: 11:53

But you're saying my comments are totally inaccurate. And today's Totally inaccurate.

Todd Gleason: 11:58

Still, farm groups like the American Soybean Association, the National Corn Growers Association, the National Association of Wheat Growers, and the International Fresh Produce Association are worried. The group say they're hearing disturbing accounts. The report may suggest farmers are harming Americans through their practices and creating a chronic disease crisis. Farm chemicals in The United States are regulated by the federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act or FIFRA. It uses what's called the risk cup or a conceptual tool.

Todd Gleason: 12:32

EPA deploys this to estimate the total pesticide exposure and risk to humans. It represents the total allowable risk from a pesticide considering exposure from various sources like food, water, and residential uses, not just how many times it was used on the farm field, but how many total times it could be used on the farm field, and how often it might also show up in the food supply, the water supply, and in other possible ways. Again, the risk cup takes all the possible exposures and adds them together to determine the safety of a chemical. The MAHA release is expected tomorrow. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

Todd Gleason: 13:28

Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. We're celebrating forty years of this program, more than 10 episodes and some 30 interviews. Thank you for taking your time and spending it with us here at Illinois Public Media. Let's check-in now on the global growing regions with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.

Todd Gleason: 14:02

Hello Drew, thank you much for being with us. If you would, could you take us back to China this week? I've been seeing a lot about the dry conditions. Really hot there this week, apparently, and I think the two of those have caused, the marketplace to take, pay more attention to this. But you and I have talked about it for three or four weeks in a row, I'm not counting this week.

Todd Gleason: 14:24

Can you tell me about conditions on the ground or what you think things are like and where things might be the worst and or better for crops in that nation?

Drew Lerner: 14:33

Yeah. Absolutely. It has expanded. I think last week, if I recall correctly, when we talked, the area of dryness had shrunk a little bit. We had seen some rain on the east side of the dry region and really kind of helped things a little bit.

Drew Lerner: 14:49

So the area dropped down to about maybe a third of what it was before. But boy, this past week, that was the big reversal. And yes, it got hot. We saw temperatures earlier this week run from about 96 to 108 degrees. The hottest temperatures of a hundred to a hundred and eight occurred on one single day, though.

Drew Lerner: 15:11

It wasn't multiple days of it, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. It still hasn't rained at all. And temperatures were solidly in the nineties during a big part of the past seven days. This area includes most of the Yellow River Basin area now. The province of Henan has always been at ground zero and it's where the worst conditions have been.

Drew Lerner: 15:36

Henan is a very important province for all kinds of grains and some oilseeds. So it's a very important agricultural region. And I don't see a lot of relief coming up. There's there's two little frontal systems that are going to pass through this area in the coming week. And each one will produce a scattering of showers, but it looks like most of the rain is going to fall apart before it reaches these absolute driest areas.

Drew Lerner: 16:05

And so we will perpetuate the dryness for yet another week to ten days, even though there'll be a few showers that will scatter through there. The temperatures will come down. So we'll probably be more upper 80 and lower to middle nineties as we go forward through the coming week. So not quite as oppressive, but nonetheless, it's an important agricultural area. Half of the corn and soybeans come out of Northeastern China and the other half come from this area more or less.

Todd Gleason: 16:32

Turn your attention to another place on that side of the world, but let's go down under to Australia check-in on the winter wheat crop there.

Drew Lerner: 16:41

Yeah. You know, the planting season for wheat, barley and canola usually starts in the April. Well, here we are thirty days down the road and it has not rained very significantly. They had some moisture in April, but it hasn't rained much since then. Now there's some pockets of exception, but Western Australia is probably the driest of the states there that produce those winter crops.

Drew Lerner: 17:06

And I'm not looking at any rain there for again, another ten days, most likely, and maybe longer. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has implied that it will be June, in June sometime when the rain start to occur there. And some of the medium range forecast models are kind of agreeing with that. We don't expect a lot of relief now planting in Australia's South can occur from late April all the way through June. So we do still have thirty days to maybe even forty, forty five days to take advantage of optimum planting environment.

Drew Lerner: 17:42

And in past years, there's been a bad drought in Southern Australia, they have planted all the way until July and been somewhat successful, but the yields do come down when they plant outside the month of June. So we're going to watch this pretty closely. Now there's going to be some rain this week in New South Wales, so they're gonna be in the best shape along with Victoria. So this is primarily a Western Australia issue with a little bit in South Australia as well.

Todd Gleason: 18:10

Before we get to The United States, swing across and around to South America in Brazil. You've told us that for the safrinha or second crop corn particularly in Mato Grosso that while the monsoon season has ended, there are some periodic showers during the dry part of their season. Have they been getting them?

Drew Lerner: 18:33

They haven't had much moisture, but they have had some. Yes. What typically happens in Mato Grosso is that it's very important that when the monsoon ends, which is usually about mid April, that the ground is completely saturated at that point. And then the safrinha crops feed upon the residual moisture in the soil through reproduction and filling. And normally that works out really well when the crop was planted on time, but we were two to three weeks late putting some of that crop in the ground and therein lies the problem because the moisture profile is in decline as it should be.

Drew Lerner: 19:15

There's nothing abnormal with the weather that's been occurring, but these late planted crops are getting closer to the start of reproduction, but we're also depleting soil moisture as each day goes by. Well, there is a chance for a couple of weak frontal systems, actually one weak frontal system to move through that area next week. And if it occurs as advertised, it actually could produce maybe a couple of tenths to three quarters of an inch of rain, which might just be enough to slow down the drying and to help these crops through that initial part of reproduction. And I think it could help to protect some of the production potential there. So we're keeping a close eye on that.

Drew Lerner: 19:57

It's not a real good looking rainy event, but it's hard to find rain events at this time of the year. So, there'll be a lot of folks talking about it if it happens.

Todd Gleason: 20:06

And then here in The United States, what do you see across the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: 20:09

Yeah. We're going to, shift gears a little bit and we've been, kind of wet across, the North in the past week or so. And certainly some hugely beneficial rains in Iowa and parts of Illinois and Wisconsin, Minnesota, even the Eastern Dakota, the Western Dakota's got collaborative with rain a week ago. And all of those areas actually has now adequate to slightly surplus topsoil moisture. There's still some dryness down deep in the ground in some of those areas, but all of this wet bias condition is about to come to an end in those higher latitude areas.

Drew Lerner: 20:44

And we're going to shift gears and move the moisture to the south and starting, oh, maybe this weekend and continuing into next week, we're going to see waves of rain move through the Lower Midwest, including Missouri and parts of, unfortunately, Kentucky and parts of the Delta, Southern Illinois and neighboring areas. And this will certainly make the ground wet again, a lot of those areas. I say, unfortunately for some of that area, because obviously we are still not planted in parts of Kentucky and Southeastern Missouri, Northeastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee, where we had that flooding event in late March and early April. And we have still to this day not been able to get into the fields there, at least some of them, because it keeps precipitating periodically. And we have cool weather in front of us here for the next seven days, and that's gonna keep the evaporation rates low.

Drew Lerner: 21:36

So cool and wet is not gonna help these folks that are trying to get that crop in the ground.

Todd Gleason: 21:41

Any early thoughts on June and July? Yeah.

Drew Lerner: 21:44

I think June and July, we are going to see, some warmer temperatures kick back in. In fact, I think once we're done with this next seven days of cool weather, we'll see the temperatures rebound to a more seasonable range. Then another week after that we'll be above normal and probably spend a big part of June in that mode. There will be showers and thunderstorms that will resume, but it does look precipitation will favor more northern areas once again. So maybe those southern areas will have an opportunity to finally firm up and maybe we can put something in the ground before it's all over.

Drew Lerner: 22:17

The month of July, we'll probably see drier biased conditions in the plains in the Northwestern Midwest. The rest of the Midwest will probably have a mix of rain and sunshine and won't be too bad. We don't expect a lot of heat in the East. But in the West, there will be certainly periods of that until the southwest monsoon kicks in, which will be mid to late July. Then we'll probably see more rain again.

Todd Gleason: 22:41

Thank you much, Drew.

Drew Lerner: 22:42

Have a great day.

Todd Gleason: 22:43

You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at willag.org. That's willag.0rg, or you can search it out in your favorite podcast applications. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.