May 27 | Closing Market Report

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This Closing Market Report broadcast from the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, covers recent developments in agricultural markets, fertilizer consolidation, and global weather patterns. Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing notes that short-term factors, such as rapid planting progress and dropping crude oil prices, are currently pressuring grain markets, though long-term uncertainties regarding summer weather and yield remain. Henrique Monaco from the farmdoc team briefly highlights the United States' strong domestic capacity for nitrogen and phosphate production, which contrasts with a high reliance on Canadian potassium imports. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global weather outlook, detailing critical drought relief in the U.S. Southeast and Delta, a beneficial short-term dry down in the Corn Belt, and a rapidly developing El Niño that is expected to bring drier conditions to India and Indonesia in the coming weeks.

- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- Consolidation in the Fertilizer Industry, farmdocDaily.illinois.edu
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 27th day of May 2026. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's at TGM, that's Total Grain Marketing. We'll preview an interview I have with Henrique Monaco about consolidation in the fertilizer industry. Today we'll just hear about how much fertilizer the United States uses from across the planet and how much of it is produced domestically. Then later in the week, we'll talk more with Henrique. Later in this program, we'll talk about the weather forecast. We'll do that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. On this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media, it is public radio for the farming world online on-demand at WILLag.org.

Announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at $4.52 and a half, a nickel lower. December new crop at $4.77 and a half a bushel, down four and a half cents. July beans three-quarters lower, settling at $11.85 and a quarter. November new crop at $11.81 and a half, up one and a quarter. Bean meal finished $2 higher, and bean oil was up 90 cents. Wheat futures soft red July down 13.

01:27 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, that's totalgrainmarketing.com, the elevator here in Champaign County, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi Greg, thanks so much for being with us. The week's been, I guess, fairly calm this week, despite some gyrations taking place in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the United States. I'm wondering what you're thinking about this marketplace?

Greg Johnson: It's kind of a case of short-term versus long-term. If you're a short-term trader, we're getting the crop planted, we're still ahead of schedule, so that's negative to the price. The weather is warming up and we've started to dry out in some places that had too much rain, so I think the crop will look better in another week to ten days than what it did a week ago, so that's another negative to the price. And then you throw on top of that the Middle East discussions, which seem to go back and forth every day. Today they seem to think that we're closer to an agreement than we were a few days ago, and so crude oil prices are down about $4 a barrel this morning, and that's pressuring the grain markets as well.

So in the short run, we've got some negative things, and that's what the market is responding to. But longer term, I always say that growing a crop is like a hurdle race, and you've got to get over four or five hurdles. The first hurdle is planting, and we got over it with only a bruised shin. A fair amount of replanting had to take place here in Illinois, so we bruised our shin getting over that first hurdle, but I think we did get over it. And now we're just going to sit back and wait and see what the weather does in July and August. June weather usually doesn't matter a whole lot, so it's hard to come up with anything real positive here in the short run unless people tend to believe the longer-term weather forecast.

There are some people talking about a flash drought showing up here in June. Others are talking about the super El Niño, and we don't know if or when that would show up, and what effect that would have on Midwest production. So longer term, there are still a lot of unknowns and variables out there, but in the short run, the crop got planted, it's off to a good start, small crops don't need a lot of rain, and the Middle East situation seems like it goes back and forth every day.

Todd Gleason: So a couple of things about June and the weather, and I'm wondering what your historical context will tell you. Emerson Nafziger has said a dry June, as of recent anyway, I think a corn crop does pretty well in that.

Now normally, we had been thinking we need four inches of rainfall in Illinois in June and four inches of rainfall, or an inch a week, in July as well to make a really good crop. The state climatologist Trent Ford and some of the meteorologists will say our rain events are further apart, but they're larger events. So do you think a flash drought matters that much on yield potentially in the month of June? And I'm probably getting a little bit outside of your expertise, but does it present an opportunity for producers to market a crop?

Greg Johnson: I think it presents the opportunity. Just like you said, we can talk about a flash drought, but do we know what effect it will have? If we are dry in June, but then we happen to turn off wet in July and August again and get our normal one inch of rain every week, I think we could still have a pretty good crop. So I'm all for talking up flash droughts and super El Niños, but in the same breath, I have to remind farmers that $5 corn and $12 beans are nothing to sneeze at. I think we can make money at those prices, and we've had opportunities to sell $5 futures and $12 new crop bean futures, and we're not there today. Like I say, we're in this short-term sell-off period, but if we do get an opportunity as a result of whatever—inflation, funds, weather scare—$5 and $12 may not look like a bad place to sell some grain when it's all said and done.

Todd Gleason: Have producers done a pretty good job as of recent making sales at those prices for new crop? And did they lean into finishing old crop off?

Greg Johnson: It's really slowed up, even with the last rally we had. I think farmers felt like maybe they sold new crop beans a little too soon, that first 25 to 30%. And so rather than scale-up sell, which is what I think we should do, it seems like they put the brakes on and they're just going to be content with only having sold 25 to 30% at this point, and they're waiting to see what the market will do. So far that hasn't hurt them too badly. Beans did get a little over $12 on the board and today they're around $11.85, so it really hasn't hurt them too much to not sell more beans.

But at some point in time, if we see more acres switch over to beans on the June 30th acreage report, if the weather still looks good, if we still don't see China show up and buy beans, there are some potentially negative things out there longer term. But those are all down the road, so in the short run, beans are hanging in there at $11.85, 15 cents off the contract highs. And as far as new crop corn is concerned, we're kind of down in the lower half of the range again. We did get up to $5.05 on December futures. Today we're around $4.80, so we're 10 cents off the low and 25 cents off the high of that two-month trading range that we've been in.

Todd Gleason: I guess for both of them, the good news is the trading range isn't that wide, so it's not that far to get to the top end. However, the bottom end is not that far away either, and I suppose the real fear is that dropping through those technicals would become a problem at some point for both new crop corn and soybeans.

Greg Johnson: Exactly. The fundamentals would argue that the beans probably have a little bit more potential to go down. But you can't prove that today. I guess they're looking at the potential for increased mandatory soybean renewable biodiesel leading to more soybean oil usage, and so the soybean oil market is near the all-time high right now. And meal is hanging in there as well. It's usually meal that's been the drag on the market, and soybeans respond more to the meal price than the oil. But meal prices for whatever reason are hanging in there, so you've got strong oil prices and okay meal prices, and as a result, beans are only 10, 15 cents off their highs.

Todd Gleason: I made note earlier in the week that Argentina says it's going to lower its export tax on soybeans, and it primarily would be bean meal as opposed to whole soybeans. When those come into the marketplace, how much of an impact will that have? Or did the market not worry about that at this point?

Greg Johnson: The story was out and I think it was digested, but I don't think it's really been factored in. I think that's a question of when does it get implemented? Is that a later this year thing? I think it's a gradual reduction if I remember. Nothing that you can point to on July 1st, for example, where all of a sudden the tax is 3% or 5% lower. I think it's ratcheted down over time, and so it really hasn't impacted the market yet. But over time, that's just another potential negative that you can put right up there with more acres, less demand from China, and more beans being planted down in South America as well as here in the US.

Todd Gleason: Now I want to turn your attention back to corn, but old crop this time. Ed Usset, an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota, has a golden rule that says, "Thou shalt not carry old crop past July 1." So we have a month. How are producers doing?

Greg Johnson: Well, there was a survey taken not too long ago, I think last week, that said farmers are 81% sold up on old crop corn and 92% sold up on old crop beans. So I think there is still 20% of the corn out there that hasn't been sold yet, but it feels like there's enough optimism that we didn't get off to the greatest start here in Central Illinois. Maybe less corn acres because of the higher input costs. I think most farmers are going to wait until the June 30th report and then see what the July pollination weather does before they let loose of that last 20%, which is okay.

But that same survey showed that farmers are only 13% sold on new crop corn and 12% sold on new crop beans. So I think we're a little bit farther along than that here in Central Illinois, but nevertheless, there's a lot of new crop corn and beans that still need to be sold, so I would keep that in mind when making your marketing decisions as well.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. I appreciate it.

Greg Johnson: Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: That of course is Greg Johnson. He is with TGM, that's totalgrainmarketing.com.

11:01 Consolidation in the Fertilizer Industry, farmdocDaily.illinois.edu

The FarmDoc team has posted a new article about consolidation trends in the fertilizer industry in the United States. Henrique Monaco led that team along with Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf. In it, they explore consolidation, and you can find the article on our website at willag.org right now. The team says the United States accounts for about 10 to 15% of total global fertilizer consumption, and they broke it out into N, P, and K.

Henrique Monaco: For potassium specifically, the import reliance is very high, and Canada is the main partner. When it comes to phosphate and nitrogen, those numbers are much lower—13% and 6%. That means that the US has a good domestic production capacity, let's bring it back to nitrogen here, in terms of ammonia production, which is used for other nitrogen products as well.

Todd Gleason: Again, that's Henrique Monaco. He is a member of the FarmDoc team, and they have posted a new article to the FarmDoc Daily website. It's at willag.org or at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. It's just one quick comment from a much longer interview that we'll hear later in the week from Henrique.

You are listening to the closing market report on this Wednesday afternoon. It is a production of Illinois Public Media. Our theme music was written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

12:57 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc

Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here. He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, I want to start in the southeast today, work our way across the delta, and then into the southwest and up through the plains, kind of the drier areas of the United States into the Canadian prairies. The southeast had been suffering through some really dry conditions, into the delta region as well. Has that been abated at all?

Drew Lerner: It has been largely eased, to say the least. The rains have been quite erratic in the southeast. I was talking to a gentleman this morning, and he was telling me that one of his neighbors had 10 inches of rain overnight last night. Well, I can't find that in my radar data, but that's what they reported. But there have been other pockets that have had three to five, even seven inches in the past week, greatly easing some of the dryness that's been prevalent in the southeastern states. They were probably the second driest on record in some spots in South Carolina over the last six months. So this was a pretty big and important change for the corn, soybeans, peanuts, and cotton that are produced in that region. So definitely seeing an improving trend and there's more rain coming up for those areas.

The delta has already had some decent rains in recent weeks, and they are continuing to see that rainy pattern continuing off and on. So they too are working their way out of the droughty environment. I don't know that we can wipe it all out in a short two or three-week period, but we're certainly making huge strides, and there's plenty of moisture for crops to feed upon even if the long-term moisture deficits are still large.

Todd Gleason: The hard red winter wheat growing regions of the plains, Texas for corn too, I suppose. How is that doing?

Drew Lerner: Better late than never. We are expecting to see some scattered showers and some thunderstorms to occur in that region on an almost daily basis for the coming week. After that, it'll probably turn a little bit drier as the ridge of high pressure kind of settles over that region for about five or seven days. But the overall bottom line is this moisture is good for late-season crops. It's just not going to put back the yield we've lost in some of the hard red winter wheat areas. So we'll hold it at status quo. We're not going to see a big turnaround. Certainly, the moisture in West Texas—we don't talk about cotton too much, but cotton, corn, and sorghum produced in West Texas—it needs to get planted, and they're getting some scattered showers now. They need a lot more rain, but at least they're getting a little bit of moisture, and there's some encouragement out there for them.

Todd Gleason: Work your way northward through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and up into the Canadian prairies.

Drew Lerner: Yeah, Nebraska and South Dakota got awfully dry there for a while. They've had a couple of little rain events, they still are in the midst of drought, and they need more moisture. It's not occurring right now. In fact, we're seeing 80 and 90-degree temperatures occurring from the Dakotas all the way up into the heart of Canada's prairies as a rather massive blocking weather pattern is in place, including a strong high-pressure ridge. So these areas are drying down at the moment.

Now the ridge itself, at least the part of it that's in Canada, is expected to stay in place through Friday or Saturday, and then a little disturbance is going to break it down. We'll try to scatter some showers and thunderstorms into the Dakotas and parts of Canada's eastern prairies, but most likely that rain is not going to be enough to really make a big difference, and these areas are going to still need better rains down the road. The western part of Canada's prairies, Alberta in particular, is going to be seeing good solid rainfall this weekend. Much improved wheat, barley, and canola conditions are likely to come out of it, and that will certainly be a big plus for them. You know, a week or so ago, maybe two weeks, we had been talking periodically about too much moisture and cold weather in northeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba in some of their canola and wheat areas, and this heat wave that's occurring right now is exactly what they needed to get the ground to firm up and to get farmers in the fields. So big improvement taking place there, and as long as it rains in another week or so, I think they're going to be doing much better than what anybody had thought.

Todd Gleason: Anything of interest you're watching in the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: The Corn Belt is going to dry down here for the next week to maybe eight or nine days. I don't think that's going to be a big issue. The subsoil moisture profile looks pretty good. Now there are some pockets, we already mentioned South Dakota, but Minnesota needs a little better rain, and some of the areas nearby there in northwestern Iowa, even southeastern Iowa for that matter. There's a need for rain. I think they got a decent rain in northwestern Iowa just here recently, but there is a need for more moisture in southeastern Iowa. The bottom line is that we're going to firm the soil up across the Midwest, but you know it was so cold for so long these crops really needed to warm up and maybe even be subjected to a little moisture stress, and I think they're going to get that for just a little while. We look at cooler weather coming up in the latter part of June, and that should come with rain, so I think we're going to be just fine in the big picture there.

Todd Gleason: Hopscotch across the Atlantic Ocean. Tell me about conditions in Western Europe. France in particular, I think it's turned hot there?

Drew Lerner: Yes, yes. This past five days we have had a massive ridge of high pressure over Western Europe, and it's really become quite hot for them. 80-degree temperatures occurring routinely, with a few temperatures over 90, and no rain. And France already had a little bit of a moisture deficit coming into that ridge, and so now they're drying down very quickly. The topsoil is very short of moisture, and the subsoil is marginally adequate to slightly short. So another five days of drying will occur there before rain resumes, but it does look like rain is going to show up as we go from the latter part of the coming weekend into most of next week. And as long as the rain occurs as advertised, I think they'll do okay. I'm a little bit concerned that the west-central and south parts of France may not get that much moisture. The rest of Europe should stay in fairly good shape. It has firmed up, but it's going to get timely rain and stay in good shape, I think overall.

Todd Gleason: Does that include Eastern Europe?

Drew Lerner: Eastern Europe has had a bit of drier-biased conditions recently, and they were quite cold, like the Midwest was here over the past week to two, and the warming that's occurring there now is certainly helpful. But a new surge of cold is expected to evolve over western Russia and parts of Poland and the Baltic states, and so for the next seven days, they're going to be fairly cool once again there. I don't think that's going to hurt the moisture profile much, not in Eastern Europe. But in the western parts of the former Soviet Union, it's going to be pretty wet and cool for a good seven days, extending from the Black Sea all the way north through western Russia. And so there may eventually be some chatter out there about wet weather disease west of the Ural Mountains in parts of Russia. So we'll need to kind of keep an eye on that. I don't think again, this is going to be a big crisis, but it definitely needs to warm up and dry down a little bit.

Todd Gleason: Dive south, southeasterly through India and Indonesia. I'm particularly interested in El Niño and Indonesia because it can be an indicator for the rest of the planet.

Drew Lerner: That's exactly right. El Niño is breathing down their necks, we're seeing rapid development towards that end, and over the next few weeks, we will hear about El Niño being declared. It will take a while for the atmosphere to respond to the changes in ocean surface temperatures. But already the forecast doesn't show a lot of rain for India or for Sumatra and Java, Indonesia. These areas are all going to dry down. I think the western part of Indonesia is probably going to dry down most significantly as we move forward through this next two-week period. And India, it just looks like the monsoon is going to get off to kind of a shaky start, kind of erratic rains where some folks will do better than others, but definitely not the best start to the monsoon. And with El Niño coming on, of course, El Niño will have a negative impact on India's rain later in the year, so if they start off with a moisture deficit, they could get into a bigger issue with dryness later in July and August.

Todd Gleason: Because geographically, before I let you go, Australia is not all that far, relatively speaking, from Indonesia. Any impacts there?

Drew Lerner: You know, in Australia right now they're being blessed with some timely rain for their wheat, barley, and canola crop. Southeastern Queensland and a big part of northeastern New South Wales has been getting rain routinely over this past week. And most of southern Australia has done well with precipitation, with maybe the exception of a part of Western Australia where they've been a little bit dry-biased. It's very interesting, if you go back in history and look at the years in which El Niño develops, quite often the winter season precipitation is favorable, but boy as soon as you get into the spring and early summer it gets really dry, especially in eastern Australia. So this wetter bias right now is really giving some hope for the winter crops, but I wouldn't turn your back very long because I think the odds are pretty good they'll get dry when we get out into reproduction season in September and October.

Todd Gleason: We made it across the planet. Thank you, I appreciate that.

Drew Lerner: You bet.

Todd Gleason: That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, and joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on-demand at WILLag.org. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.