- USDA Weekly Crop Progress State Reports
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets. We'll do that with Greg Johnson from TTM, Total Grain Marketing.
Todd Gleason: 00:16We'll hear about the weather forecast from Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated, and I'll bring you up to speed on yesterday's USDA weekly crop progress report with the final audio version of those reports from the states of Illinois, Iowa and Indiana as there have been programming changes within USDA. NASS would do all of that on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.51, down 8 and a half cents.
Todd Gleason: 01:02December 3 lower. It settled at $4.43 and a half. July beans at $10.48 and a half, 14 lower. November, down 13 and a quarter. Bean meal, $2.60 lower.
Todd Gleason: 01:13The bean oil off 64¢. And wheat futures for the soft red, that's the harvest month in the July at $5.30 and a quarter. A penny and three quarters higher. The hard red July at $5.25 and a quarter, 3 quarters of a cent higher for the day. Live cattle futures in Chicago, a dollar 12 and a half cents lower.
Todd Gleason: 01:31The feeder cattle off $2.52 and a half cents, and lean hogs for a hundred pounds, a dollar and 15¢ higher. Crude oil at $61.94 a barrel up a dollar and 5¢. Diesel fuel two and a tenth of a cent higher for a penny at $2.07 and 4 tenths, and the gasoline on wholesale price at $2.65 a gallon a penny and 7 tenths of a cent higher. The outside markets including the S and P five hundred down about 10 points, the Dow off 136. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's Total Grain Marketing.
Todd Gleason: 02:06The elevator here in Champaign County that belongs to FS now joins us. Hi, Greg. Thank you for being with us today.
Greg Johnson: 02:12Good to be with you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 02:13Tell me about, the marketplace soybeans, during the morning session. Why is that the case? They've not been doing too terribly bad.
Greg Johnson: 02:23No. In in fact, the the the soybeans have done better than the corn, recently. If you look at the yearly price range so far on July beans, for example, the low has been $9.80 and the high has been $11. So the average or midpoint is $10.40. And even with the sell off today, we're at $10.50.
Greg Johnson: 02:41So we're still in the upper half of the range, barely, but we can't say the same for corn. So I really think, you know, there's just the funds have been buying beans. There was some anticipation that maybe there will be an announcement next week on renewable biodiesel and the RVOs, but we know how that goes. The the rumor is that it might be released next week, and then we get to next week, and then it gets pushed back for some reason until a month later. And so, you know, until we actually see an actual announcement, you know, it's of buy the rumor, sell the fact, and, you know, we we've been trying to pop up or prop up the market and done a decent job.
Greg Johnson: 03:26But until we actually get some actual facts, you know, it it feels like the bean price is is is pretty fairly priced until either we get an announcement from the government or until we have a weather problem, whichever comes first.
Todd Gleason: 03:38Yeah. The rumor is that there will be a rescission that impacts NPR and PBS. It goes to congress next next week too. So, buy the rumor sell the fact. I I don't know about that, but it would impact us here market to market on WILL TV and Harvest Public Media, which is all on us.
Todd Gleason: 03:57I just kinda throwing that on just because you were talking about rumors. Like, well, there's a rumor that I have to watch closely. So let's come back to agriculture and commodity trade. So we've got a rumor there. Anything else that you're watching, whether it's trade with Europe or other functions?
Greg Johnson: 04:14That's what the whole market is watching, is either talks, government policy concerning trade, whether it be with Europe or with India or with some other Japan, some other country. China is probably not gonna be announced until we get a few more countries on our side and can use them as leverage, feel like we have leverage against China. So I think the Chinese announcement is months away, you know, whereas these other countries, you know, we could be weeks away, from seeing some announcements. But until we see something, it's it's just, all speculation, and, nobody wants to get too far on one side or the other. So, you know, we've got the government, RFO numbers and the government trade policy to talk about, and, nobody really knows.
Greg Johnson: 05:02And the other thing that we really don't know anything about is what the weather's gonna be like in June and July. We're off to a pretty good start in a lot of areas. The crop ratings came out yesterday. They were about five points lower than what most of the traders were thinking. But I think if you look back at past history, how we start, isn't really a big, big deal.
Greg Johnson: 05:25It's how we finish. So, JuneJuly weather will have a lot to say about, the crop and, we just don't know what the JuneJuly weather will be yet. So we're kind of in the middle here, both corn and beans. Beans are right in the middle of the range, upper half of the range slightly. Corn's in the lower half of the range, but we just don't have a weather story to talk about.
Greg Johnson: 05:45Brazil is getting some rain. Their safrinha double crop corn was a little dry. There were some concerns that maybe the crop would be a little bit smaller, but one to two inches of rain yesterday in big parts of South America has kind of lessened the concern about the crop. So now it looks like we might have a pretty good double crop corn crop out of South America, and that could tide over some of the demand until we get to The US crop this fall. So, you know, nothing real positive to hang our hats on today, and that's why the markets are doing what they're doing, I think.
Todd Gleason: 06:23You know, one thing that I was thinking about as it's related to the trade policies the Trump administration is working on or the trade deals is the TPA or trade promotion authority expired in 2021. This is what allows a president to negotiate a deal and for congress to just simply vote it up or down. But without that, without TPA, congress can change a trade deal. I'm wondering how much of a problem that might be eventually. Nobody's really talked about it, but I started thinking more about this last earlier in the week and double checked, and TPA is not in in place.
Todd Gleason: 07:03So maybe something else, that will be a stumbling block we'll have to deal with, across trade. In agriculture, we'll have some interesting issues if that is the case, so we'll watch that one closely as well. What are the things are you watching? Ethanol, for instance, looking good for the driving in the summer season?
Greg Johnson: 07:22Yeah. Yeah. Ethanol demand is good. Export demand is good, and feed usage continues to be lackluster. We just got another catalog feed number that's 98% of a year ago, and, you know, that's those are the kind of numbers that we've been dealing with.
Greg Johnson: 07:38So we can't really expect livestock demand to lead the charge. It's probably gonna be exports. Weather in Mexico has been dry for a couple of years now and the drought monitor shows that they continue to be in a drought. So exports should remain strong out of Mexico. That's probably the one shining light that we've got as far as demand is concerned.
Greg Johnson: 08:02Ethanol is stable. But again, that's trade related or policy related, depending on what the Trump administration, the EPA does as far as small refinery exemptions as as follow as far as the RVO, 45z. I mean, there's a lot of unknowns, and the devil is in the details. And so we just don't know a lot of those, and the market will respond once we start to get some clarity, but, who knows when that will be.
Todd Gleason: 08:30Yeah. RVOs have yet to be released. 45 z part of the big beautiful bill in some form. We'll see how all that makes it through the senate too. Interesting to see how the senate deals with that particular bill and what comes back to the house that they may be able to approve or not be able to approve as the two sides get together in our bicameral government.
Todd Gleason: 08:54Anything else before I let you go for the day?
Greg Johnson: 08:56Funds are short corn, which is unusual for this time of year. They're short a hundred thousand contracts. To put that in perspective, they've been as long as 300,000 contracts. They've been as short as 300,000 contracts. So short a hundred thousand is not, extreme, but given the fact that we've got the whole growing season ahead of us, they have not been short in May for the last seven years.
Greg Johnson: 09:19So that's probably something to keep an eye on. Either they think that the extra acres are enough of a buffer or that South American crop is big enough or that the demand just isn't gonna continue to be there, but, the funds feel comfortable being short corn, which is very unusual for this time of year.
Todd Gleason: 09:34Thank you much, Greg. We'll talk with you again next week.
Greg Johnson: 09:37Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 09:38Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly crop progress reports. It shows as of Sunday, 87% of the corn crop had been planted. 85% is the five year average.
Todd Gleason: 10:0167% of that crop is emerged, 60% is the five year average and it's said to be in 56% good, and 12 excellent condition. 76% of the soybeans have sown, the five year average pace is 68%, fifty % of that crop has emerged, 40% is the average pace, 75% of the winter wheat is headed, 70% is the five year average, and the condition of the crop there is 43% good, and 7% excellent. 87%, by the way, of the spring wheat has also headed. 80% is the five year average. Now here are updates from across the Midwest.
USDA NASS Iowa: 10:43This is Rebecca Alter, agricultural statistician for the USDA Nass Iowa field office. Timely rains while needed, limited Iowa farmers to three point eight days suitable for fieldwork, corn and soybean planting continued, but some producers are waiting for warmer and drier conditions to start spraying. Topsoil moisture condition rated 4% very short, 15% short, 76% adequate, and 5% surplus. Corn planted reached 95%. Corn emerged reached 76%, six days ahead of last year's pace and two days ahead of normal.
USDA NASS Iowa: 11:24Corn condition rated 0% very poor, 2% poor, 15% fair, 62% good, and 21% excellent. 92% of the expected soybean crop has been planted just over two weeks ahead of last year and eight days ahead of the five year average. Soybeans emerged reached 60%, eight days ahead of last year and four days ahead of normal. Soybean condition rated 1% very poor, 2% poor, 17% fair, 64% good, and 16% excellent. 40% of the state's first cutting of alfalfa hay has been completed.
USDA NASS Iowa: 12:09Hay condition rated 85% good to excellent. Pasture condition rated 68% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Iowa. For the USDA NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office, This is Rebecca Alter.
USDA NASS Indiana: 12:29I'm Nathaniel Wernske with USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. This week, Indiana topsoil moisture rated 84% adequate to surplus for the week ending May 25. Days suitable for field work were three point five days. Corn planting was 76%, close to the five year average. Corn emerge was 57%, ten percentage points ahead of last year and three percentage points ahead of the five year average.
USDA NASS Indiana: 12:57Corn conditions was rated 70% good to excellent. Soybean crop planted was 71%, slightly ahead of last year and the five year average. Soybeans emerged with 49%, an increase of 17 percentage points from last week. Winter wheat drink was 94, three percentage points behind last year. Winter wheat headed was at 68%, twelve percentage points behind last year, but six percentage points ahead of the five year average.
USDA NASS Indiana: 13:27The crop rating was 77% good to excellent. Compression range condition rated 73% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Indiana. I'm Nathaniel Wernske for USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.
USDA NASS Illinois: 13:45Hello, everyone. This is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland region, and this is the Illinois crop progress and condition report. There were four point zero days suitable for field work in the week ending May 25. Statewide, the average temperature was 59.4 degrees, which was six point zero degrees below normal. Precipitation averaged 1.56 inches, which was point six three inches above normal.
USDA NASS Illinois: 14:13Topsoil moisture supply is now rated at 3% very short, 18% short, 65% adequate, and 14% surplus. Corn planted has now reached 82% across the state compared to the five year average of 87. The corn emerged has reached 70% compared to the five year average of 69, and the corn condition was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 28% fair, 55% good, and 12% excellent. Soybeans planted has now reached 75% equal to the five year average, and the soybeans emerged has reached 58% compared to the five year average of 50. The soybean condition was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 33% fair, 53% good, and 9% excellent.
USDA NASS Illinois: 15:00Winter wheat headed has now reached 72% compared to the five year average of 87, and the winter wheat condition was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 33% fair, 51% good, and 11% excellent. For our Illinois Cattlemen, the pasture conditions were rated 2% very poor, 5% poor, 24% fair, 46% good, and 23% excellent. Again, is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland region serving the farmers and ranchers in Missouri and Illinois. Due to some program changes at NASS, this will be the last audio file that I am able to do this year. Our weekly information will continue to be available on our website at www.nas.usda.gov.
USDA NASS Illinois: 15:49I wish all the farmers out there a safe and successful 02/2025 growing season. Thank you, and have a great week.
Todd Gleason: 15:56Our thanks go to the state statisticians for the weekly crop progress of crop conditions across the Midwest. 1 other state to check-in on, the state of Minnesota averaged three point three days suitable for field work last week. Topsoil moisture there's were rated 1% short, 14% short, and 73 adequate. 12% surplus corn planting at 97% complete in Minnesota reaching that level ten days sooner than the five year average pace. Soybeans were 91% planted thirteen days earlier than average and nineteen days ahead of 2024.
Todd Gleason: 16:34By the way, the corn condition in Minnesota was 69% good to excellent. Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City now joins us to take a look at the weather forecast. Let's hopscotch across the planet. We'll start in China. We've been following dry, even hot conditions there.
Todd Gleason: 17:07In some of the growing regions, have things changed over the last week, Drew?
Drew Lerner: 17:11Well, they changed for a little while. Got a little bit wetter for a short period of time, but we're back into the dry now and that beneficial moisture actually occurred a little more than a week ago. And so we've already been drying down in the eastern part of that old dry region for the past seven days. We do have a couple of weak little weather systems coming up, but they're not going to break the drought. And drought continues to be declared by the China Meteorological Agency for the heart of the Yellow River Basin.
Drew Lerner: 17:45And it does look like as we go forward the next ten days and some models suggest for at least two weeks, this dry or below normal precipitation bias will remain in place. And the temperatures will have a warmer than usual bias probably getting hot again for a little while in this coming week. So the combination is certainly going to be stressful for crops. Just today we were looking at the vegetative health index for China. And indeed we are seeing the crop conditions in decline now a little bit more broad based.
Drew Lerner: 18:19It really hasn't been that dramatic up until this point in time. But, you know, we don't have a lot of summer crops in the ground in the May. You get to the May and early June, and it's a whole different story. And so we would expect to see an increase in crop stress evolving as we go forward through this next couple of weeks for the recently planted crops in unirrigated fields I should point out.
Todd Gleason: 18:46It does take rain to make grain move to South America. Check-in on that safrinha crop where, of course, the monsoon season ended a bit ago, and they periodically get rained, but not much as they finish out the corn there.
Drew Lerner: 19:00Yeah. That's right. Normally, it is a very dry place in this time of the year, and really from the April, mostly May all the way through early September, it doesn't usually rain very much if it rains at all. And we are going into a period here of unusual unsettledness, if you will. We had some rain last night and continuing today across some of the Western and Southern Safrinha corn production area.
Drew Lerner: 19:29This would be from the Western most part of Mato Grosso through most of Mato Grosso de Sol and into neighboring areas of both Parana and parts of Sao Paulo. And these areas have seen enough rainfall just in this one event to improve the topsoil moisture at just the right moment in time. As we've talked in the past, when it's a normal year and they plant that crop on time, when the rainy season ends in April, the ground is usually saturated and crops will just cruise right on through reproduction and filling with the residual moisture left in the soil. But with the crop being three weeks late planted this year, there's a, there was a pretty good potential that the crop would reproduce and fill during the driest time of their year, which would not be a good thing for the yields. And that's what everybody had been anticipating.
Drew Lerner: 20:22But this rain event last night has certainly come in perfect timing, improving the topsoil moisture and taking the stress down by a good notch or two. And that's not it. We are going to see a follow-up system on Monday into Tuesday of next week. And some computer forecast models have even suggested a third disturbance may impact southern parts of the production region at the end of next week. And if if we get just the second event and it's as significant as what we got last night and today, that crop is gonna just, do really much better than what a lot of folks were expecting.
Todd Gleason: 21:00In North America, I take it it's a Goldilocks story of sorts, too much, too little, and just right?
Drew Lerner: 21:06Yeah. That's a very good way to put it. Yeah. Absolutely. It's too wet, certainly in the Delta.
Drew Lerner: 21:13Parts of the Tennessee River Basin, those areas got clobbered with good rains again, and this past weekend, and we are going to continue to have rain often enough in those areas to maintain the abundance of moisture. It may not be flood material, but it doesn't matter. This is still a little bit of a problem, especially for those areas that never got completely planted. I guess my understanding that a number of fields are being abandoned now is because it's just going to be too late by the time it quits raining, if it ever quits raining. A little farther to the north though, we do have pretty darn good moisture conditions around and a lot of the dryness we had earlier in the season is pretty much hard to find right now.
Drew Lerner: 21:55Even Nebraska, which had been one of the big holdouts for quite a while has received some significant rain in the past week and their moisture profile isn't ideal by any means, but it's better than it was. And we're going to continue with periodic rainfall moving across most of the Midwest as we go forward through this next ten day to two week period.
Todd Gleason: 22:17And finally, Canada, the too little?
Drew Lerner: 22:20Yeah. Definitely too little in the central parts of Canada's prairies. Saskatchewan in particular, it looks like a bit stressful for them. That's an important wheat and barley and canola production province as well as a few other crops, and it is getting too dry. It's not quite critical yet.
Drew Lerner: 22:39We haven't had a lot of excessive heat, but it is definitely trending in the wrong direction. And we've got at least ten more days of limited rain coming up.
Todd Gleason: 22:48We'll have you keep track of it for us. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner: 22:51You bet. Have a great week.
Todd Gleason: 22:52You too. That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City and helped us to wrap up this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.