May 28 | Closing Market Report

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The May 28, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features discussions on commodity markets, agricultural news, and weather forecasts. Curt Kimmel reports that corn and soybean markets experienced volatility but ultimately rebounded, driven by optimism over a potential peace agreement and hopes for Chinese goodwill purchases. In policy and trade news, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the administration's commitment to maintaining tariffs, while the National Corn Growers Association advocated for clear guidelines on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Other significant developments include Brazil surpassing Argentina as the top exporter of soybean meal and John Deere's $99 million settlement over its right-to-repair policies. Finally, meteorologist Mike Tannura warns of historically dry conditions threatening spring wheat in the northern plains and cautions that an unusually dry forecast for early June could pose significant yield risks across the Corn Belt but that this isn't necessarily the case historically.

- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- University of Illinois Row Crop Events in June
- Jaimeson Greer on USMCA Trade Negotiations
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net

Todd Gleason: From the land-grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 28th day of May 2026. I am University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We will talk about the commodity markets today with Curt Kimmel. He is at AgMarket.net. Matt Bennett, his colleague, is away from the office, very busy for the afternoon and not available to us. We will talk about the weather forecast with Mike Tannura from Tstorm Weather at Tstorm.net. During that discussion, we will take up the month of June and the work he has done as an agricultural economist and meteorologist related to dry weather and corn yields. Along the way, we will discuss the agricultural news for the afternoon. There is information about biofuels. Argentina has lost its number one spot in the first four months of this year in soybean meal exports to Brazil. We will discuss that, the John Deere settlement, and how those eligible can apply for payment from the class action lawsuit. All on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: July corn settled at $4.55 and three-quarters of a bushel, up three and a quarter today. December at $4.82 and a quarter, four and a quarter higher. July soybeans $11.94 and a half, nine and a quarter cents the gain on the afternoon. November at $11.94, finished up twelve and a half cents. Bean meal $3.50 higher, bean oil up $1.44. July soft red winter wheat at $6.24, up a penny and a half for the day, and hard red July at $6.65 and a quarter, four and a half cents lower.

02:00 Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net

Todd Gleason: Curt Kimmel from AgMarket.net joins us for the afternoon to look at the marketplace. Curt, thank you for filling in for Matt today. It was a busy day in Chicago. What took place?

Curt Kimmel: It zigzagged a bit. What we took off yesterday, we put back on, plus a little more. The market seemed to go down and, depending on the commodity, particularly corn and beans, moved below the channel or support line and snapped back up. For the day, commodity funds sold about 1,200 wheat, bought about 5,600 beans, and 5,100 corn. News-wise, trades are looking at some type of peace agreement, and that gave the market confidence to put back on what it took off the previous day. Crude oil did both sides of unchanged. Agricultural fundamental news was light. We receive the export sales report on Friday due to Monday being a holiday. The trend has been firm with good export sales. The big factor will be if China comes forward and makes a goodwill purchase. The idea for bean strength came from China on expectations they will remove tariffs or import duties on U.S. agriculture products going into their country. Month-end is tomorrow. Once that is out of the way, we need to keep an eye on the weather. The forecast is dry for the next ten days. Even though the crops look better with the warm weather, it is perking up. If we continue to be dry, we will start discussing dry conditions in the upper Midwest.

Todd Gleason: Sideways, up, down. What do the charts tell you historically when you go through support and then rally back through it? Does it indicate more bullish sentiment left in the market?

Curt Kimmel: I am not sure if the AI programs are reading that to go down and clean out the sell stops under the marketplace or clean out the buy stops above the marketplace. Yesterday afternoon, Brian Split did an AgMarket weekly technical video. He is concerned about possible head and shoulders tops in soybeans. The corn is rolling over. We need to hold yesterday's lows; otherwise, we could be subject to seasonal selling. If you compare it to the 2024 charts, we topped out and drifted lower into June. Unless we see China start booking U.S. beans, or have something solid in writing, or if the weather cooperates seasonally, we have seen the market roll over heading into June.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. I appreciate you filling in for Matt today.

Curt Kimmel: Very good. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Curt Kimmel is with AgMarket.net.

07:00 University of Illinois Row Crop Events in June

Todd Gleason: June is a busy month for the University of Illinois. You can join us for the Small Grains Field Day on the 4th, next Thursday. Meet at the Agronomy Seed House on South Wright Street to get an up-close look at wheat and oat research, learn about disease management, variety selection, and oat-pea intercropping from Illinois professors. The tour concludes at 12:30 p.m., followed by a barbecue. Search "Illinois Small Grains Field Day" to register. On the 24th of June, visit us for the Weed Science Field Research Tour at the Clem Farm. Registration opens at 8:00 a.m., the tour begins at 9:00. You will review corn and soybean herbicide programs, observe research plots, and evaluate new agricultural products. A $10 fee covers the field tour book, refreshments, and a boxed lunch. Search "Illinois Weed Science Field Research Day" for more information. Finally, U of I Extension and the Illinois Farm Bureau partner together to focus on the "Future Sustaining Farm Legacy" series across the state. Attendees hear practical updates on succession planning, farm economics, the farm bill, and market conditions. The next event is June 30th in Sycamore at the DeKalb County Farm Bureau building. Register today at go.illinois.edu/farmlegacy.

08:36 Jamieson Greer on USMCA Trade Negotiations

Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer addressed a wide range of trade issues, from tariffs to USMCA. At a recent think tank forum, Greer told the Council on Foreign Relations that the Trump administration will hold fast to policies that roiled U.S. agriculture.

Jamieson Greer: The U.S. is going to have tariffs. Even with a country like Mexico or other countries in our hemisphere, we are going to have tariffs. As long as we have a giant trade deficit, we are going to have tariffs.

Todd Gleason: That includes Section 301 and 232 tariffs to replace those the Supreme Court struck down. As for the upcoming USMCA renewal, would he negotiate separate deals with Mexico and Canada, or none with Canada over fissures on things like its dairy tariffs?

Jamieson Greer: The team right now is in Mexico, and they are negotiating with Mexico on a bilateral basis. I speak with some regularity to my Canadian counterparts. Our sense is that we have trade challenges with Canada, which some people might think are just irritants, but to us, they are significant.

Todd Gleason: Greer says only two countries, Canada and China, have retaliated against the U.S. over its reciprocal tariffs. He claims some trade with Canada in fertilizer and energy will be fine despite USMCA, which Greer must extend, cancel, or renegotiate after July 1st.

10:26 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit

Todd Gleason: We will stay in Washington, D.C., where the NCGA, the National Corn Growers Association, has pressed the Treasury Department and the IRS for clear, workable guidelines on the new aviation fuel tax credit, or 45Z. Michigan farmer and NCGA First Vice President Mass Frostik outlined the organization's priorities during a listening session on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit this week. Frostik noted the credit has the potential to be a significant long-term demand driver for agriculture, provided the regulatory framework is predictable and finalized quickly. He called for a scientifically grounded system that accounts for conservation practices already in use across rural America. Frostik stressed that recognizing verified on-farm practices like no-till and cover cropping is essential.

11:22 Trump Inflates U.S. Crude Oil Production

Todd Gleason: On a related energy note, President Donald Trump, during a cabinet meeting, made a claim yesterday that the U.S. produces more than double the amount of oil produced by Russia and Saudi Arabia. The EIA reports for the first quarter of 2026, the United States produced an average of 13.7 million barrels of oil per day. The Energy Information Administration puts Saudi Arabia's production at an average of 9.4 million barrels and Russia's yield at 9 million barrels.

11:53 Brazil Picks Up another #1 Ag Exporter Slot

Todd Gleason: Argentina has been the number one exporter of soybean meal for decades, and its lead appears to have given way to Brazil in the first four months of this year. The loss of the top spot comes via a series of issues. These include structural changes in both Brazil and the United States, pushing biomass-based fuels like biodiesel and renewable diesel. Indonesia shifted to importing soybean meal from Brazil's Port of Santos rather than Argentina's Rosario ports, and Argentina's own taxing policy has limited soybean production. This week, Argentina announced it would dial back its current 24% export tax on soybeans beginning in January 2027. It hopes to gradually reduce the tax to 15% by the end of 2028.

12:50 How Farmers Respond to Climate-Related Risk

Todd Gleason: The changing climate, larger rainfall events with longer, drier periods between them, along with other weather extremes, are causing farmers to face growing uncertainty about crop production. A new study from the University of Illinois and Michigan State examines their weather-related risk tolerance. Illinois's Natalie Laduka says she and her Michigan State colleague wanted to better understand how farmers perceive uncertainty under changing climate conditions, so they surveyed them. Laduka and Scott Swinton found farmers are risk-averse in both general and agriculture-specific areas. Attitudes toward uncertainty varied much more widely in the agricultural scenarios than in the general financial areas. More work is needed, but it should give policymakers valuable insights into achieving national goals.

13:42 John Deere's Right to Repair Settlement

Todd Gleason: Finally today, John Deere has agreed to a $99 million settlement in a class action lawsuit regarding its right to repair policies, which allegedly restricted farmers' access to necessary diagnostic tools and software for equipment repairs. Austin Peiffer has more on how to make a claim.
Austin Peiffer: The settlement includes ten years of access to certain John Deere tools and technologies that were previously restricted. The hope is that this will allow farmers and independent repair shops to repair John Deere tractors, combines, and other equipment effectively and bring competition into the market.

Todd Gleason: Peiffer notes this class action was brought about under antitrust law.

Austin Peiffer: The theory is that by restricting these repair tools, John Deere has been able to charge more than it would have in a competitive market. It has monopolized these tools and charged monopoly rents.

Todd Gleason: He acknowledges that the right to actually repair your own equipment is the headline here, but he adds there is the monetary element as well.

Austin Peiffer: I keep getting emails stating, "Google settled this class action and you're entitled to a small amount of money." This is the same idea, but it will be a smaller class, so a lot more dollars per class member. Check your spam filter; you might see a notice of how you make a claim in this.

Mike Davis: I am Mike Davis.

Todd Gleason: And that is a look at today's agricultural news. You are listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday afternoon. We will record Commodity Week this afternoon and put it up on our website at willag.org by 6:00 this evening. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

16:22 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net

Todd Gleason: Let us turn our attention now to the growing regions across the planet. Mike Tannura is here. He is the president and CEO at Tstorm Weather at tstorm.net online, out of Naperville, Illinois. Thanks, Mike, for being with us again. I would like to get started today in the spring wheat growing regions. What does that look like today in the plains?

Mike Tannura: In the U.S., we can look at our proprietary data and conclude this is the driest start to a growing season since 2017 or 2021. The three-state region of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana will have its driest April-May period in more than 55 years of record. This is setting the stage for the need for rain.

Todd Gleason: Is there rain in the offing?

Mike Tannura: There is some on the way because we have an upper-level system moving by this weekend, which should bring decent totals to western Montana. The problem is that most of the crop is grown in eastern Montana and the Dakotas. At this point, we think they will see about half an inch over the next week. The concern is that a half-inch is not enough to alleviate this problem, and it will be much warmer than normal. High temperatures have been in the 80s and 90s all week. Overall, there are significant threats to this crop, and the only way out is to get substantial rain over the first half of June. The same setup affects Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada.

Todd Gleason: Here in the Corn Belt, the warmer weather over the last several days has improved things significantly. What do you see across the Midwest?

Mike Tannura: It will be pretty dry for a while. Even though we might see rain in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri, everybody to the east, including Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, does not have much rain in the forecast over the next seven to ten days. Even though things look fantastic right now, we have concerns that this dry weather is too much of a good thing. We are setting a stage where the first five to ten days of June will be unusually dry.

Todd Gleason: If it stays dry, what have you learned about yield for corn?

Mike Tannura: The two driest Junes on record, going back to 1971, both produced the two worst corn crops on record. Those were in 1988 and 2012. If you look at years as recently as 2022 and 2023, rainfall in the month of June was similar to 2012 with totals far below normal. The difference is that once we got into July, 2022 and 2023 had normal rainfall, and 2012 stayed dry. Yields in 2022 and 2023 were normal, without a significant deviation from the trend, putting us in the mid-180s range at a U.S. level for bushels per acre. If June ends up being very dry, the risks to yield certainly increase, but there are many examples like 1992 and 1987 where we had great rain that followed, leading to normal or good crops. It comes down to what happens after June.

Todd Gleason: Turning your attention to Europe and the wheat crop there, what does the wheat crop look like across parts of Europe?

Mike Tannura: They are quite dry across the European Union, but there are nice rains on the way, starting in five to ten days. In Russia, we have had great rains all winter and spring, which will continue. Ukraine has been in between, with dry periods and wet periods, but they will tap into rain next week. There is not much concern for winter wheat as long as this forecast holds up.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. I appreciate it, and we will talk with you again next week.

Mike Tannura: Sounds great, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Mike Tannura is with Tstorm Weather at tstorm.net online. He helped us close out this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. This afternoon, we will record our Commodity Week program with guests Naomi Blohm and Arlan Suderman. We will post that to the website at willag.org by 6:00 this evening. Commodity Week is our weekly look at what has happened in the world of agriculture, a panel discussion running since April of 1988. Thank you for listening to the closing market report. We will talk with you again tomorrow. I am University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.