Nov 12 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson at TGM.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

That's totalgrainmarketing.com. We'll hear from the new director of positive youth development at Illinois four h. His name is Kevin Carey. And we'll talk about the weather too. We'll do that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

Todd Gleason: 00:35

It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org where today you can purchase your tickets at the farm assets conference or the Illinois farm economic summits. They're just a bit more than a month away. Don't wait. Do it right now. The cost is $80.

Todd Gleason: 00:51

Pick them up at willag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to w I l l by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.35 and a quarter up 3 and a quarter cents. March at $4.49 and a quarter, two at a quarter higher, and the May at $4.57 at a quarter, up one and a quarter. January soybeans, $11.33 and 3 quarters of a cent, 6 and a half higher.

Todd Gleason: 01:17

The March at $11.44, up six in November. Beans of next year at $11.15 and 3 quarters, up three and three quarters of a cent. Bean meal, $4.10 higher. The bean oil up or rather down 48¢ for the day. Wheat future soft red unchanged in the December at $5.36, and the hard red December at $5.25 and a half, a penny and three quarters higher.

Todd Gleason: 01:40

Greg Johnson from TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Greg. Thanks for being with us. It looks like it's a relatively quiet day in Chicago at the CME Group. What have you been thinking and talking to farmers about?

Greg Johnson: 01:57

Well, now that harvest has wound up, the farmers are trying to develop a marketing plan where they wanna release some of this crop that they've got now stored, either in the elevator or on farm. So obviously the USDA report, Monthly Supply and Demand WASDE report to be released this Friday, will tell us, at least we think it'll tell us, give us some direction as to whether it'll pay to continue to hold this grain or maybe dribble a little bit out and reward this dollar over dollar rally that we've seen in the bean market over the last month or so. So I think all eyes are on the Friday report as far as the farmers are concerned.

Todd Gleason: 02:35

As it's related to soybeans, most, if not all, of our analysts have been of the mind that that dollar was worth taking advantage of at least for some sales prior to the WASDE report. Are you still in that camp?

Greg Johnson: 02:50

I think I am. With all the uncertainty, over how much China is gonna buy from The United States this year and in subsequent years, or whether they will buy at all, we haven't seen the details of the agreement. Heard differing opinions of what that agreement will say. Will the Chinese be obligated to buy soybeans regardless of the price of US beans versus Brazilian beans? Or is there a clause or an out in that agreement that says that the Chinese only have to buy beans from The US if they're price competitive.

Greg Johnson: 03:30

That question, I guess, I don't have the answer to. I'm not sure anybody does unless they've seen the agreement. So with that kind of uncertainty, if China really does have to buy 12,000,000 metric tons of beans this year and then 25,000,000 each of the next three years, that obviously, I think, would be a little friendly and would argue for holding on to beans. On the other hand, if China only has to buy US beans if they're price competitive and Brazil is off to a good start with their crop, then prices probably would go lower. So that would argue for getting some beans sold.

Greg Johnson: 04:03

So since we don't know the answer, at least I don't know the answer, I think it's a good idea to reward the market and and take advantage of some of this dollar dollar 20 rally that we've seen over the last month.

Todd Gleason: 04:13

The other extenuating circumstances that the supreme court is still, working through the process of deciding whether or not the president has the legal right to impose a tariff on China. However, that would not supersede any trade agreement that might be put into place. And there really aren't tariffs on you know, there is a tariff on US soybeans going into China, but, it would be interesting to see how all that plays out. So we'll have to watch and listen and find out more once the WASI is dealt. That crop production report on Friday that come out at eleven, what the supreme court says.

Todd Gleason: 04:56

And in the mean space, China's been back in the market, but they've been buying Brazilian soybeans again.

Greg Johnson: 05:01

Well and that leads to the argument that, the the agreement has this opt out clause that that China does not is not obligated to buy US soybeans, that they can buy US soybeans if they're price competitive. But if they're not, the argument is that China can continue just buy Brazilian beans if those are the cheapest beans in the world. And it seems like that's the way it's shaping up early, but it's still plenty early. We just signed the agreement a little over a week ago, so, know, who knows? But, the market's a little skeptical of the numbers that the Trump administration announced.

Greg Johnson: 05:37

You know, will will China follow through on those numbers or not? We'll have to wait and see.

Todd Gleason: 05:40

It would seem that if, they would need to buy 12,000,000 metric tons, and there have been some different accounts by the end of the year, by the January, but sometime in the next month or month and a half that they'll have to get on their high horse fairly quickly. Though though they would they they could have deliveries in certainly far out months. They could even, you know, they could buy for delivery much later in the next calendar year, I suppose, in which case producers would have to watch I know you watch bases in all those months because you have to set them. Has anything changed in the last week or week and a half very much for soybeans?

Greg Johnson: 06:22

Well, we've seen a little bit more farmer movement, so we've seen basis levels level off. I wouldn't say they've weakened, but we had a real strong basis improvement once harvest wound up a few weeks back. Both corn and soybean basis really improved. We continue to see good export demand for corn out of The Gulf. And the the hope was that we would start to see some export demand for soybeans.

Greg Johnson: 06:44

And so we have seen basis levels improve once harvest got over. But here in the last week or so, no. I think the farmer movement has kind of, put a lid on that basis improvement for now. So farmers are rewarding this market by selling some corn and soybeans, and so basis levels have leveled off. They haven't really weakened a lot, but, we we've not seen the big jump that we saw two two weeks ago or so.

Todd Gleason: 07:07

They've been selling both crops?

Greg Johnson: 07:09

A little bit of corn. More beans than corn, obviously, but, the corn price has rallied almost 40¢ on the board of trade. We we're we're in this this range that we just can't seem to break out of, and so anytime we get to that top end of the range, there are a few farmers that, if you're sitting on 100% of your crop, for example, there's nothing wrong with selling corn in the 4 thirty's on the board, hoping that it goes to $4.50 at some point in time, but it may be a February, March timeframe before we see those kind of prices. If the WASI report lowers the yield by a couple of bushels, but also lowers feed demand and increases the beginning stocks, which it sounds like that's what we're expecting, we still could be looking at a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout after the numbers come out on Friday. And 2,000,000,000 bushel doesn't argue for four fifty corn just yet.

Greg Johnson: 08:01

Now, you know, if we plant less corn next year, you know, obviously, then we can see a little bit more of a rally in the corn market. But that may be more of a February, March rally than than a November, December rally.

Todd Gleason: 08:12

Yet demand from the other sectors, ethanol, and exports seems to be really good. I think exports may be at an eighteen year kind of high?

Greg Johnson: 08:22

Yes. And that's why there's very good support underneath this market, and that's why we're in the sideways trading range. It's not gonna go a whole lot lower, but it may not go a whole lot higher for a while either. We may be stuck in this $0.2 trading range for a few more months unless, we get something, out of the USDA report Friday, or if we get, some unknown weather problem or something that we don't know about yet today, you know, a Supreme Court ruling, as you mentioned, on the legality of the Trump tariffs. Mean, it's something that we don't know about today could move this market.

Greg Johnson: 08:55

But without that, it seems like, we're kinda fairly priced between, you know, $4.15 and $4.40 on, December futures, and we just are stuck in that range until something gets us out of that range.

Todd Gleason: 09:07

You know, some have dabbled with the idea that new crop, particularly soybeans, maybe should be sold as well or at least get started. What do you think of that idea?

Greg Johnson: 09:16

I like that idea. I'm not ready just yet, but I think we should have offers in. My target is $11 cash, which would be like 11 30 futures. We're at $11.10 today, so another 20¢. And, I don't see anything wrong with selling $11 cash beans out of the field for a couple of reasons.

Greg Johnson: 09:34

Number one, it's profitable. I mean, if we grow 70 bushel beans and sell them for $11, that's almost $800 an acre gross, and that pays the bills. And that's why we're farming is to be able to pay the bills. Number two, we know Brazil planted more soybeans this year. We think US is gonna plant more soybeans this spring, so we could be up to our eyeballs in soybeans by this fall if we have good weather.

Greg Johnson: 09:58

So unless you're willing to bet on a drought either in South America or North America next year, $11 beans may look like a pretty good sale when it's all said and done.

Todd Gleason: 10:06

Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Greg Johnson: 10:09

Alright. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 10:10

Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Up next, we'll hear from the new director for positive youth development at Illinois four h. His name is Kevin Carey.

Kevin Carey: 10:26

I have learned a lot from meeting with folks across all of our counties, all a 102 where four h exists, and our staff who do dutiful work both at the local level and the state level. And as someone who comes from a lifelong experience with this organization, it kind of feels a little surreal. I'm just being honest. I mean, is a full circle moment for someone like me, who very much so values the work that we do for our youth and our families and our volunteers and our donors every day.

Todd Gleason: 11:12

As you mentioned, there are a 102 counties.

Todd Gleason: 11:15

1,800 clubs. Mhmm. Some 20,004 H'ers in Illinois. Tell me about your view of them going forward and how you expect the university, the college, extension to deal with them, meaning to to help them in their clubs, in their lives, in the kinds of things that they can learn through four h.

Kevin Carey: 11:44

We are immensely proud of our club model that we've had for almost a hundred and twenty five years in 2027. And the club model's a a beautiful example of our rich history of who we are in four h and what we will continue to provide.

Todd Gleason: 12:07

So you say four h experiences should be provided with knowledge and care and opportunities, And that's how four H clubs, as I understand them, have always operated. Four H clubs continue to do that kind of work across the state of Illinois. But I'm wondering if it does anything more across the communities and in school districts.

Kevin Carey: 12:29

So club members are critical to us. But where we are today in Illinois four h is we're in schools. We're working with community organizations. We're providing tools, resources, knowledge through our programs and our projects that make a huge difference across every part of our state.

Todd Gleason: 12:57

That's Kevin Carey. He's the new director of Positive Youth Development for Illinois four H. By the way, over the past two years, four H educators, University of Illinois staff members in each of the years, has reached out to some 250,000 youth through partnerships delivering impactful curriculum in schools that Kevin Carey is confident helps students engage in the world around them. Let's check-in on the global growing regions. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated to help us out today.

Todd Gleason: 13:43

Hi, Drew. Thanks for being with us again.

Drew Lerner: 13:45

Yeah. Hope you've been doing well. The weather has certainly been exciting, hasn't it?

Todd Gleason: 13:49

It has been a little bit exciting. I wanna get to that here in The United States in just a bit, but let's start with Brazil. That's where the growing crop is at this time. I know that in the Center West of that nation, they have had some dry weather. Is there a continuing dry condition there?

Todd Gleason: 14:12

Are things changing? What are you expecting?

Drew Lerner: 14:14

Yeah. You know, Mato Grosso, parts of Goias and Northern Mato Grosso, Sol, which is that Center West region we're talking about, have not done real well with even distribution of rain. We've had a lot of erratic shower and thunderstorm activity. About 20% of that region is probably considered to be too dry both in the top and subsoil. The rest of the region is probably okay enough to support the crop, but it has not really rained as abundantly as it should by this time of the year.

Drew Lerner: 14:51

And so the subsoil moisture is a little low and that's okay. As long as we get timely rain, but I'm a little nervous about it because that area along with Northeastern Brazil are vulnerable to some lighter than normal rains later in the summer as we continue to parallel a pattern from twenty thirteen-twenty fourteen. And that summer we had a halfway decent November and the crops did okay. But when December and January came around, we had a lot of trouble getting good rain to occur, especially in the Northeast parts of Brazil. And by then, I'm talking about Bahia and Tocantins and Piawi and Marinau.

Drew Lerner: 15:32

So the Far Northeast, not a huge contributor to the overall production, but it's still significant enough. And if we keep Mato Grosso limping along a little bit along with Goias, it might be a little, a minor story to talk about down the road. But we do expect in the second week of the forecast to do a little flip flopping around. Right now, Southern Brazil is in really good shape. There's a lot of moisture down there, probably a little too much in a few spots.

Drew Lerner: 16:02

And as we go into the second week, we're gonna bring some lighter precipitation, less frequent precipitation to the south. And we're gonna enhance some of the rain in these northern areas. So I think Mato Grosso will do a little bit better for a little while. I'm not necessarily saying it's all gonna be better for a long time, but short term improvement. And then the Northeastern states, we're probably gonna see a little bit of relief too, but I do think that they're gonna slip back into some more drier weather a little later, maybe later this month, but certainly in December.

Todd Gleason: 16:34

Would you call the southern part of Brazil La Nina like?

Drew Lerner: 16:37

I would, simply because we're going to shift into a more traditional La Nina looking pattern as we go into that second week of the forecast. The actually up to this point in time, it has definitely not been very La Nina like. La Nina tends to produce below normal precipitation in Far Southern Brazil and Eastern Argentina, as well as parts of Southern Paraguay. And we've had some really well timed precipitation events and the crops down there are doing really well. So up to this point in time, it really hasn't been much of a La Nina looking pattern.

Drew Lerner: 17:13

But next week we will see below normal precipitation in all of that region. And it makes it look a little bit more like La Nina because we're going to see an increase in precipitation farther to the north. But, you know, La Nina is only expected to be around for several weeks and then it's gonna go away. And so I don't think we wanna make too much out of the La Nina influence. I think that we may see some drier tendency there in Southern Brazil, but somewhere down the road, we'll probably start seeing more timely rain again.

Todd Gleason: 17:43

Anything to discuss in Paraguay through Argentina?

Drew Lerner: 17:46

You know, Paraguay is probably gonna see some locally heavy rain and some local flooding here in this first week of the outlook, and then they will turn drier. So not too terribly concerned about them. Argentina, they have just absolutely fantastic soil moisture right now. Probably one of the best spring seasons they've had in years, I think. We are going to see this continue for a little while.

Drew Lerner: 18:10

It should rain off and on through the weekend into Monday. And then it will turn drier next week with a lot less precipitation in Argentina over a multiple day period. We might even go seven days with a net drying environment there. But I think that'll be really helpful for getting the rest of the summer crops planted or at least, you know, take a big stab at it. And then if we can bring back some timely rain at the November into December, Argentina will continue to be sitting pretty.

Todd Gleason: 18:42

And then finally, let's turn your attention here to The United States. I'd like to talk about the cold weather that we're just coming out of. Today finally feels better. It was awfully cold, and it is not lost on me that those cold weather conditions have continually dropped by in a persistent way about every month for six, seven months. And I'm wondering whether it will be periodic and continue through the winter months.

Drew Lerner: 19:14

That's a really good observation. And, you know, with the degree of dryness we have right now from Canada's prairies all the way through the plains and the heart of the Midwest into the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin, these colder shots of air are really getting a good solid run into the Southern parts of the country because there's no humidity to hold the air back or to modify it. It just gets cold and the temperatures just plummet without that moisture in the air. And this is a pattern that seen a lot of here recently. It hasn't had a big impact until this week when we did get those freezes all the way down to the Gulf Of America coast, even Northern Florida.

Drew Lerner: 19:59

And this morning was, you've seen freezes for the second time and it hasn't reached all the way into citrus country. We did see some frost and light freezes in Louisiana sugarcane areas, but nothing, nothing damaging right now. But I think you're right. I think until we get better moisture occur in The US in Canada too, for that matter, we're probably going to see some interesting shots of cold coming and going as we go forward in time. The long range outlook certainly favors periodic shots of impressive cold through the winter.

Drew Lerner: 20:33

It's not going to be continuously cold though all the way through the period, but boy, when it gets cold, it's going to get cold. And we will see freezes down through all of the Eastern Part of The United States and certainly some bitter cold conditions. I think this pattern will also promote some impressive Middle And North Atlantic storm systems, some nor'easters, if you will. And they will likely generate some impressive snows once in a while. So we're just getting into this.

Drew Lerner: 21:01

And I think as we go forward through the next several weeks, we'll probably feel the chill a little bit more, but for right now, boy, it's going to get really warm. You know, that low humidity I mentioned that is going to allow the the planes to heat up impressively over the next two or three days. We're gonna see seventy and eighty degree highs in most of hard red winter wheat country over the next couple of days. And there's gonna be some 90 degree heat in Oklahoma and Texas probably on Friday afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 21:30

Wow. That is moving a lot of heat from really cold conditions to really hot conditions. In the Midwest, do we remain warm? Does it become more active as it relates to wet weather? And while we had snow here in the last few days based on lake effect snow, so I'm just wondering what the end of the month might look like.

Drew Lerner: 21:55

Yeah. You know, the lake effect snows were very impressive there in Northern Indiana for sure. You know, as we go forward through this next five day period, I don't think you're gonna see a lot of precipitation. It's gonna be pretty dry. We will warm up.

Drew Lerner: 22:10

But as we get into next week, probably the middle to latter part, more likely the latter part of the week, into the second weekend of the two week outlook, we will be in the midst of a more active weather pattern. A southwest to northeast flow pattern will likely take place. We will see that warmer air around, but there will be some shots of cooler that come in too. And so the contrast in the air mass temperatures is likely to set off some precipitation. And so we will moisten it up just a little bit.

Drew Lerner: 22:37

And we could get a significant storm in there somewhere when the colder air comes around and end up with a, you know, a fairly significant rain and thunderstorm system with snow in the northern part of the region. It's too soon to get specific about it, but I'd be watching for it in the, second week of the outlook.

Todd Gleason: 22:55

Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Drew Lerner: 22:58

You bet. Have a good one.

Todd Gleason: 22:59

Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Helped us to wrap up this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. I'm Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON: