Nov 14 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. It's USDA report day.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

Coming up, we'll talk about this morning's reports with Mike Zuzlow. He's at globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. I'll remind you to pick up your tickets for the farm assets conference as well as the Illinois farm economic summits that'll happen across the state, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We'll do that with Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.

Todd Gleason: 00:57

Hey, Do visit our website at wilag.org, willag.0r. Do you know the winter meeting season is upon us? The cold weather will be here soon enough, and we'd like you to join us for a couple of sets of conferences. The PharmDoc team and Illinois Extension sponsor. They kick off with the PharmAssets Conference that will take place in Bloomington at the AGRA Center on the December.

Todd Gleason: 01:24

That's a Friday. We hope you will join us for this daylong event that includes your meal at the noon hour. The cost is just $80. The farm doc team will be there along with many others, including the crop scientist from the University of Illinois to talk about agriculture in the state of Illinois and across the planet. You'll want to join us for that day.

Todd Gleason: 01:45

It is a really big broad view of the marketplace. And then on the following Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, December, The PharmDoc team and myself will go on the road for the annual Illinois Farm Economic Summit series or IFAS meetings. The PharmDoc team will dive deep into Illinois crop budgets and all things Illinois agriculture. Will be in DeKalb on Monday, the fifteenth for the IFAS series, East Peoria on the sixteenth, that's Tuesday, and in Mount Vernon on Wednesday, the seventeenth. You can sign up today either at the PharmDoc daily website or more easily at willag.0rg.

Todd Gleason: 02:30

And thank you. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. I'm just gonna give you a quick closing range because I'd like to spend more time with, Mike Zuzlow, globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas today after the USDA report released. Earlier today, December corn was down 11. Futures were off 11 in the nearby contracts for sure.

Todd Gleason: 02:53

January beans were off 21 and a quarter. The March 20 lower, November of next year down just 6¢ around the close. Mike, give me your first reaction once you saw the USDA numbers, and what you thought the market might do and how it really did react.

Mike Zuzolo: 03:11

Yeah. First reaction, Todd, was, you know, I kinda went into this market, today on Friday thinking about, especially in the soybeans with the run we've had and still a lot of uncertainty about China's soybean purchases, that we really needed to feed the bull, quote unquote, on this report, beans especially, but also in corn, because we haven't seen the wheat market really recover much here and stay firm throughout the month of, late October and early November. But I mean, not only did USD not feed the bull, they put it on a bread and water diet and threw it on a treadmill. So I think the skepticism is probably pretty high at this point as far as the yields when it comes to corn and beans this stage of the game, but that would be my two initial reactions.

Todd Gleason: 04:02

Okay. So let's talk about the numbers that came out from USDA. I will make note that USDA in October and November did take, objective yields, from fields. So they had the samples and they did process them. They showed up in the executive summary, so those were included.

Todd Gleason: 04:21

I think the October particularly surprised me that that happened. They show soybeans down a half a bushel to 53 from 53 and a half, and they put an ending stocks in at 290,000,000 bushels down just 10,000,000. I'll let you talk about any other changes in the supply and demand tables that you want. Did that number drop dropping just a half bushel surprise you in soybeans?

Mike Zuzolo: 04:49

No. It didn't surprise me. I've I've been on the course, based upon what clients have told me after harvest is, you know, mostly wrapping up for the vast majority is that the beans held in there while the corn was the one that did not see the yields hold up. Disease pressure. I I actually just got off the phone before we started talking, Todd, with a real good long term long time client closer to DeKalb, a little bit south of DeKalb.

Mike Zuzolo: 05:17

And, you know, once again, talking about the disease pressure and the light test weights. And I've heard that a lot this year. I'm sure you have too. I think the one thing about the survey, the Ag yield survey I noticed was on their map. They have Nebraska and Kansas as ten thirty surveys, so each state around 500 per that encompasses all of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana in their surveys.

Mike Zuzolo: 05:44

And I found it really interesting that Kansas in particular was 595, whereas Illinois is two fifty eight and Ohio was down at a 199. Not so sure I know I don't want to go out and too far on a ledge here, but I'm not so sure that might be part of the reason why the corn did not come down and yield because Kansas did have a much better crop than they've been used to these past couple three years for the most part, especially as you got into the Western parts that were not irrigated, and then the areas that were irrigated did real well as well. So I would say the soybeans received the best domestic supply demand report of the two, even though the USDA took exports down 50,000,000 bushels, while in corn, they took it up a 100,000,000 bushels. But be that as it may, the corn is still well over 2,100,000,000 bushels. That is in the market's mind burdensome at this point.

Mike Zuzolo: 06:40

And you could see that Friday with the soybean corn ratio with the beans gaining and the percentage losses in corn much more than the soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 06:50

Season's average cash price for soybeans at $10.50. That was raised 50¢. Those ending stocks again at 209 90,000,000 bushels, just down 10,000,000 with the supply and demand changes, from the month of September for corn. The season's average cash price at $3.90 cents. It was also raised a dime, rather to $4, raised a dime from $3.90.

Todd Gleason: 07:16

You talked about some of the changes that took place. The exports up a 100,000,000 bushels. Total supply, actually, a 144,000,000 bushels higher. That includes production, and what was added in, in September at the ending stocks as well. So those numbers all generating, what has proved to be that 2,154,000,000 bushel carryout.

Todd Gleason: 07:37

How should producers proceed with the marketing year for the current crop that's in the bin?

Mike Zuzolo: 07:45

Yeah. Mean, I did a little bit of selling ahead of the report and and really worked on 26 soybeans. I think that's where my eyes are set mostly. Would would like to get a little bit more 25 corn underneath me if we don't find some support soon with that July corn futures getting up above that $4.70 level or close to that $4.70 level here this week. One of the things that I think in going circling back around is that the USD also released on Friday daily export sales reported.

Mike Zuzolo: 08:13

And corn, beans, and wheat, lot of corn, a lot of Mexico corn, a lot of other countries' corn. So corn demand is is solid, and we think pretty seriously that with the lower gas prices going above the blend wall in the foreseeable future, pretty likely. So domestic demand, pretty solid. The soybeans, though, when I looked at everything that the USDA gave us on Friday between Chinese soybean purchases and unknown soybean purchases, it only totaled about 950,000 tons. That's not anywhere close to the 6,000,000 metric tons we need for this month, not to mention what we need for next month, another 6,000,000 metric tons.

Mike Zuzolo: 08:52

So the big question for me, and this is gonna bleed over into the corn, I think, for next week. The big question for me is how seriously does the market take these numbers because of the fact that the Gulf price of soybeans is at $12.14 on Friday, The Pacific Northwest price of soybeans is at $12.22. There is a huge disconnect between the cash market for soybeans versus what USDA gave us in the data on Friday. And so if the soybeans don't wanna plumb new lows and go any lower, I think that really sets the corner up for maybe a buy the dip rationale with the idea that cash corn is very solid and $1.86 is is just too high still. So that's my thoughts on Friday afternoon that it really is up to the soybeans whether we wanna take this down seasonally or not.

Todd Gleason: 09:44

We have not talked about the global numbers yet. A couple of minutes left. What did you see there that gave you hope or that concerned you?

Mike Zuzolo: 09:51

Yeah. You noticed on Friday morning, Ukraine and Russia ratcheted up their tensions. We've talked a lot about this, went after some infrastructure in both energy and grains, and that gave us a real nice strong rally in the wheat market led by the crude. So we wanna keep watching that. But as far as the numbers themselves, we didn't get anything from the USDA that would support the idea that wheat needs to make a low anytime soon or needs to cover any more shorts because the 271,400,000 metric ton ending stocks number they gave us on Friday was above, well above the highest trade guess on the Reuters Newswire survey, Todd.

Mike Zuzolo: 10:29

And so between that and the the specific countries that saw really nice increases in terms of wheat, you know, EU wheat went up about 2,200,000 metric tons. Canada went up a million. Australia went up one and a half. Argentina, we figured in probably 22. That's what USDA gave us on Friday.

Mike Zuzolo: 10:50

Just had several of our major competitors come in and take us up in terms of the ending stocks. So wheat really needs to support this market, and the report didn't give us that kind of number.

Todd Gleason: 11:01

And finally, the next set of numbers from USDA that will really impact the corn and the soybean markets, we too will not come until the January final figures. What expectations do you have at this point for that report and the extra data that will come in the way of, the survey from farmers and the grain stocks figures?

Mike Zuzolo: 11:23

Yeah. Great question. Only thing I'm gonna be looking at, and I'm in saying this, is the daily reporting on soybeans for China and also what the cash market does because there are not the ground piles that we thought there would be in corn. And I think it's gonna be pretty quickly that this cash corn market turns this market if the yields are down at one eighty two like I think they are.

Todd Gleason: 11:42

Any final word from you, or shall we leave it there?

Mike Zuzolo: 11:45

We'll leave it there. Have a great weekend, sir.

Todd Gleason: 11:47

You too. That's Mike Zuzlow. He's with globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Joined us on this edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the good of all.

Todd Gleason: 12:08

Let's check-in on the global growing regions now with Eric Snodgrass. He's at NutriNAC Solutions and Agrabal. Hello, Eric. Thanks for being with us. By the way, I just wanna say that last night, I spent some time with your colleague, Andrew Pritchard.

Todd Gleason: 12:24

Yeah. He does content for WILL, our home station every day, but I know he works really closely with you and just a a stunningly good meteorologist as well. Oh, yeah. So wanted to say, he he was here. Ed Kieser is in town.

Eric Snodgrass: 12:41

Oh, really?

Todd Gleason: 12:42

He says hello. He's actually well, unless he unless he's out and about, he's he's downstairs at the moment in my home. So and he said to say hello too. So I wanted to let you know all those things were happening, and and we appreciate all the work that they've done and that you do as well. Speaking of work that you do, let's talk about the weather here in The United States.

Todd Gleason: 13:05

It was cold. There was snow, and it is November. And, of course, now it's kinda warm outside. Tell me about it.

Eric Snodgrass: 13:14

It's not kinda warm. It's, like, 75. It's it's so mild. I was in Saint Louis this morning, and I was driving home. I just had the windows down.

Eric Snodgrass: 13:21

I mean, it's just incredible, you know, a day. And I I do know what's coming, so I gotta, you know, I gotta get prepared for this. You know, I will be bugging Andrew. So here's Andrew's greatest strength, and this is what I love about Andrew. He is a phenomenal severe weather forecaster.

Eric Snodgrass: 13:35

And he compliments what I do so well because, honestly, I'm always looking out there at the really long term stuff. Andrew can stay hyper focused on the short term stuff. And darn it, do I miss not having Ed's voice always giving you the now cast as it was happening? So what a we could have made a good trio, Todd. You know?

Eric Snodgrass: 13:50

Might get a stuck. Yeah. Well, you still could. I know. I know.

Eric Snodgrass: 13:54

But, you know, here's the thing. Like, you're right. We we were talking with snow last weekend. Brutally cold air mass that came through, and was just gone. And now we've opened up to a large ridge.

Eric Snodgrass: 14:02

And here's what I'm hoping, Todd. We are very dry. We got the new drought monitor out. Not much change for us. We've got to get a revival of this soil moisture throughout the Midwest, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes Basin.

Eric Snodgrass: 14:14

Because look this morning at the Mississippi. It's still six and a half feet below low stage. And why I'm saying all of this is because if we find ourselves into a cold December and we freeze the topsoil up, there's not gonna be opportunity to put moisture in it once we do that. And I would like to revive that moisture before we get there. So, yes, it's very mild, but we need to also be bringing in these mild conditions with rain in order to get ourselves in a better position for next year.

Eric Snodgrass: 14:41

And there is rain coming, Todd, but, we're gonna have to wait a little bit longer on it.

Todd Gleason: 14:45

How long?

Eric Snodgrass: 14:46

Well, the system that I'm thinking about is partly entering California today. There's a deep, deep cutoff low going into Southern California. A lot of flooding issues there. That one's gonna try to eject. It's gonna be relatively weak, but it will leave a boundary over the top of us early next week.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:00

It's the system that follows that that's got the greatest potential. And I will be I'll be working closely with Andrew also on the severe weather potential. I don't think it's for us. I think it's more Delta, Mid South, Ozarks, that kind of area. But, that storm system from the Red River, Valley Of The South, which is between Texas and Oklahoma, all the way through to, like, the Great Lakes, I see a good band of good moisture.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:23

And it could be cold enough in the backside for a quick hit of snow on that as well. So we're gonna watch that. Again, that's not in the near term. That's that's that's next week, well into next week that we're keeping an eye on that. But, you know, back to the starting narrative.

Eric Snodgrass: 15:37

So mild right now. Are we actually gonna get and keep cold air around before Thanksgiving? I think it's gonna be pretty limited before Thanksgiving, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 15:44

No. Well, that would not be terrible. I would enjoy that. Would be able to help you put up, your Christmas lights and clean up the yards and all those kinds of things. Do you think when you look into December that that cold weather will return?

Todd Gleason: 15:59

And and this is part and parcel. You and I have talked about this plenty of times that there seems to be a persistence in once a month cold air just dropping in. But if it drops in December, it feels like it might stick around.

Eric Snodgrass: 16:13

Yeah. So there's a few pieces of evidence pointing toward this. Number one, the polar stratospheric vortex has already weakened and displaced. That helps. Okay?

Eric Snodgrass: 16:21

It would help a whole lot more if it was, like, January, February, but it's it's gonna help. The second thing is La Nina is trying to get to its peak. The third thing is there's this other feature we talked about last week in the Indian Ocean. We call it the Indian Ocean dipole. It just hit its peak, and it's fading.

Eric Snodgrass: 16:37

When we put all that together, we start to see that looking through history that it tends to open up a big ridge in Alaska, putting heat in Alaska. And you know what happens if if you're getting heat in Alaska, guess where the cold air is gonna go? It's gonna come right through the Canadian Prairie, channel up against the Rockies, and get east. And it seems that we're gonna have a few of these decent cold waves coming through and better chances of snow in December than we've seen in a while. I mean, last year, December was super mild, and then it was January that the Arctic came Arctic air came out.

Eric Snodgrass: 17:07

I think it's I think this year, just shove it forward three or four or five weeks, and I think that's what we're looking at. So, yes, I would I I mean, I'm not allowed to endorse this time, but everybody should just leave work, go outside, enjoy this. Because I think the next time you and I talk, we're gonna start to have a different tone about what we think that December weather could look like. I think it's gonna turn toward the cold.

Todd Gleason: 17:30

Anything new in the longer term forecast for our winter?

Eric Snodgrass: 17:33

You know, there's still a good signal that we have a more active, more snowy, wetter Northern half of The United States, and that includes us. If I'm worried about risk, it's Sunbelt to Cotton Belt to Southeast. And I'll be honest, Todd. How we come out in April with the drought monitor is gonna be the top thing I'm gonna be focused on. Can we cut it from where it is near now, which is, like, twothree of the country in some form of drought?

Eric Snodgrass: 17:58

Can we get that below a third? That's going to be critical. And then here's the real kicker time. We looked at these years where there's a lining in the peaks early and fades fast. And in the springtime, we tend to have a lot of plains severe weather events and less risk in the Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

Eric Snodgrass: 18:19

Now that could be a narrative to talk about because if we don't get delta or southeast storms, we will start to have a discussion about where early twenty twenty six drought pressure could be, and I do not want it to be to our South. Don't want it to be to our South. So I'll I'll think about all those things over the next, I don't know, seven months, Todd, as we as we walk through this.

Todd Gleason: 18:39

We will be talking to you the entire time. Interesting, by the way, that, on the drought side that, you know, always during the year, Iowa farmers hoping Illinois kinda has drought. Illinois going to hoping Iowa has a drought. Two things. We had a drought.

Todd Gleason: 18:55

We still, in USDA's numbers today, increased the yield in Illinois to 221 bushels to the acre. A big, big numbers. Laying down a big number for the state of Illinois. You talked about drought, La Nina. That triggers me.

Todd Gleason: 19:12

Now we're gonna be rooting for something else to happen in South America, I suppose. What do you see there?

Eric Snodgrass: 19:18

Well, I I was hoping you were gonna say that would trigger you to help that Nebraska had a problems. Like, we can I think Iowa and Illinois can unite in going after Nebraska maybe? I I don't know. Maybe maybe in football and basketball.

Todd Gleason: 19:29

Oh, that would

Eric Snodgrass: 19:29

be better. Yeah. So here's the deal in South America. You know, weird planting. They got the crop in, but we're not hearing, like, stellar reports.

Eric Snodgrass: 19:39

Now you and I know, and we we've said this phrase a thousand times, but we know Brazil can out acre any early weather problem, just adding the more acres in. But I think if there's gonna be a story, it's gonna be Southern Brazil into Argentina. I continue to see the longer range models plus the historic analog support say that if there's gonna be high variability in rainfall, it's gonna be Southern Brazil and into Argentina, where they could they could get themselves into a midsummer drought picture. Just the question is, are the markets gonna care? Is the number of, you know, lost bushels gonna be enough to do anything to move us in a different direction in these markets.

Eric Snodgrass: 20:16

And given what you just shared with me about the USDA report, I think it's gonna take a lot of weather problems down there for that to happen.

Todd Gleason: 20:22

Yeah. So as you look through the process, what do you see for the two nations, Argentina and Brazil?

Eric Snodgrass: 20:28

Yeah, think Argentina is going to have the greater risk factor. I'm not so worried about the Center West or even the eastern growing regions in Brazil, which have been a bit dry lately. I think the problem will be in Southern Brazil, Argentina.

Todd Gleason: 20:40

Okay. Thanks much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.

Eric Snodgrass: 20:43

Alright. Sounds good.

Todd Gleason: 20:44

That's Eric Snodgrassi with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal. Join us on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Stay with us if you can. On our home station, you'll hear commodity week. We recorded yesterday afternoon a very good program, very narrowly focused, and frankly, the numbers that USDA released today weren't that far off from what most of the analysts on commodity week were thinking.

Todd Gleason: 21:10

So still very, very good stuff for you to listen to. If you'd like to hear it and you're not on our home station, you can do that right now at willag.org, willag.0rg, and many of the stations will carry it over the weekend as well. While you're on our website, you'll want to sign up for the farm assets conference that's coming up on the December. A little bit less than a month away. Now here's what we'll be talking about.

Todd Gleason: 21:35

We'll start with the fundamentals of the marketplace and talk about the commodity markets. We'll have some crop budgets. We'll do trade, transportation, and the global marketplace, how things are moving across the planet, and then we'll dive deep into what's on the horizon. Things like biofuels policy, RFS, as well as the RVOs, soybeans looking really pretty good, some of the biomanufacturing that will be taking place and is an objective for both, PREMIENT and the University of Illinois, we'll discuss that on the December in Bloomington at the AgriCenter during the Farm Assets Conference. We'll also take up of course ag policy objectives and some prospects going forward, and we'll get into the muddy boots sorts of things in the afternoon with the crop scientists, We'll talk about the in rate calculator.

Todd Gleason: 22:28

We'll do cover crops as well, mostly PCM, Precision Conservation Management, and we'll round things out by talking with some of the ag leadership here on campus as well as around the state. You can join us, of course. The cost is just $80, but you need to get registered today. You can do that. The farm assets conference is Friday, December 12 in Bloomington at the Agra Center.

Todd Gleason: 22:52

Register now at willag.0rg. Thank you listening to the closing market report on this Friday afternoon. Stay with us if you can. Commodity week is next on the home station. Again, many of these stations will carry it over the weekend.

Todd Gleason: 23:07

I'm Todd Gleason.