Oct 16 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net in Windsor, Illinois.

Todd Gleason: 00:16

We'll discuss what's been happening in the world of agricultural trade in detail and hear more about ethanol as it's being exported across the planet. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tenure at t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online during this Thursday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, a public medium. Find us online.

Todd Gleason: 00:42

Listen to us on demand whenever you'd like at willag.org or search the closing market report out by name in your favorite podcast applications. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at four twenty one and three quarters, a nickel higher above the moving averages. The March contract at four thirty five and a half, up three and a quarter, and May at four forty three and three quarters, two and three quarters higher. November beans up four and a quarter settled at $10.10 and 3 quarters of a cent in the January at $10.28 and a half for the soybeans up 4 and a quarter cents on this Thursday afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 01:26

Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Matt. Thanks much. Last week when we talked with you, you suggested you might get done. Did you?

Matt Bennett: 01:37

Yeah. Yeah. We got done there on Monday. Probably could've got done over the weekend, but to be honest, everybody's getting pretty wore out, first of all. Second of all, the weather certainly didn't offer us anything to be worried about, so we just decided to finish it up there on Monday.

Matt Bennett: 01:51

And, well, trying to nose into a little bit of field work, but, man, it's awful dry. It should be nice if we catch a shower in here this weekend.

Todd Gleason: 01:58

And it feels like you probably will. Is that in the offing for you where you are in that inch inch and a half range, maybe a bit more?

Matt Bennett: 02:06

Yeah. I mean, they're talking anywhere from three quarters of an inch to an inch plus. So depending on, you know, where you're at, I suppose. But, you know, anything we could get is sure be nice. I'm under an inch here at the farm since July 25.

Matt Bennett: 02:21

So, actually, I don't believe any of the farms that we that we have, we've had over an inch since July 25. So it's just been quite the flash drought for us.

Todd Gleason: 02:30

It used to be that the October was when you might be able to apply some anhydrous. I think you're far enough north, that you can actually do that. However, you won't be low enough in temperatures still expecting to be four to eight degrees above, the average temperatures for this time of year. You'll need to hold off on that, I suppose. Producers are looking forward to next season as well.

Todd Gleason: 02:55

What can you tell me about this marketplace?

Matt Bennett: 02:57

Yeah. Market definitely has got a little bit of life in it. I mean, clearly, you went home last week with a lot of frustration, you know, with president Trump saying that we're gonna slap a 100% tariff on China, and people felt like they were a little bit up in the air. Seems like tensions cooled a little bit over the weekend, but by all means, we still don't know exactly what's gonna happen there. Sounds like there will be a meeting, but what will come out of that meeting, I think, is anybody's guess.

Matt Bennett: 03:23

And so, you over the last three days, we've actually seen the core market kinda bounce off of that four ten level as far as decent is concerned. And then today, you know, we traded up above that hundred day moving average again, and, you know, it's been a few days since we've looked at that hundred day. And it looks like we're gonna see a settlement above it. So with that being the case, certainly from a technical standpoint, looks like we're trying to build the case for a little bit of a rally in here. Now, obviously, it's a harvest type rally.

Matt Bennett: 03:51

It's tough to imagine with the kind of corn crop that we all know we've got that we would see that, but I do think maybe the yield continues to scale back just a little bit from USDA. Of course, didn't get our October report, but our assumption that would be whenever we do see that report, if we do, you know, and if we don't in November, we should see the yield scale back somewhat. We have to be very cautious to get super friendly. I've gotta get out to the '26 crop year before I can start talking something more bullish because I do think we're gonna have to scale back on acres a little bit in '26.

Todd Gleason: 04:23

$4.20 or thereabouts is the, hundred day moving average. That would be the target to stay up, particularly for today. It could be that today was a technical move. I'm wondering about that. Or whether it is Iowa and poorer thoughts about the crop that is coming in there and its impact on the marketplace.

Todd Gleason: 04:47

You did not sound convinced to me that that was the case in your beginning comments.

Matt Bennett: 04:51

Yeah. I mean, whenever you're looking at Iowa, there's one thing that we continue to hear is that corn on corn acres have been a little disappointing in some areas. You know, definitely management was a big key this year. Those that double applied fungicide came out smelling like a rose, and some of them, even with single applied, just couldn't get that thing to hold on because there was just so much rainfall and disease pressure. And so it looks like relative to what everyone felt based on the weather that Iowa might be a little bit of a disappointment compared to what the thoughts were, you know, August 1.

Matt Bennett: 05:25

Whereas Illinois, even though a lot of us were dry as a bone, I think Illinois might actually be a little better than what people thought it might be. Now is it as good as USDA? Probably not. I gotta think you maybe Illinois is in that two ten or under level. But as far as Iowa goes, you know, I don't know that they're much above two ten.

Matt Bennett: 05:44

And there one time, you know, you thought both states were two twenty. So I do think that you're gonna have to scale back on yield and total production a fair bit.

Todd Gleason: 05:51

What are you looking at in the soybean market as it's related to the technical side or how it manages to hold back corn if it wants to make a run, either on potential yield loss or the demand staying very strong?

Matt Bennett: 06:08

You know, I mean, you look at this bean market, and clearly, could make the same case on beans as with corn. I mean, yeah, there's a lot of folks in Illinois especially that I would say feel pretty good about their yields, especially earlier planted beans and black ground. Definitely soil type played a big role this year, just awfully hard to go for six, eight, ten weeks without any moisture in that really critical timeframe and expect these beans to do a lot. But from a technical standpoint today, we kind of poked up above these shorter term moving averages. It's very interesting though, you get on farther out in the fifty day, one hundred day and two hundred day are all pretty much showing convergence right there underneath 10.3.

Matt Bennett: 06:50

And so it'd be very interesting if we get any positive news whatsoever, if the market could get a little of buying come in here, could certainly go test those three moving averages. And if you were able to get above them, I mean, there's no question that this bean market could catch some life finally. It's gonna take a catalyst though. There's no doubt you're gonna either need some really positive trade news. Right now, the weather in South America is certainly conducive to a fast planning planning pace, and there's really no indication.

Matt Bennett: 07:20

They're on a little on the dry side, but it's awfully early in the season to be concerned about that. So from a weather perspective, you can't really get too excited about any sort of rally out of Brazil. It's just about gonna have to come on some sort of trade or tariff talk.

Todd Gleason: 07:33

Now on the soybeans, if you were to punch through 10:30, that probably would push the black boxes to make, some purchases for sure, trying to catch that marketplace. Is it someplace that you would expect producers need to make a sale?

Matt Bennett: 07:47

Well, I believe so. I mean, the thing is is that a lot of folks have already made the decision on sell versus store. If it's at home right now, I mean, you gotta take a look at what the carry in the market is. So if you do get to the level that you say, hey, this has been a nice little rally here. If you've got some soybeans that you're holding on to ownership for, selling them on farther out, especially whenever we're looking at home, or at least hedging that carry makes a whole lot of sense.

Matt Bennett: 08:10

If you hedge the carry, then that means that you're gonna lock in that price out to next summer and then who knows what basis might do between now and then. But there's no doubt basis has not exactly been overwhelmingly good throughout harvest, which is something you would always expect. Basis should get better as the marketing year goes on. So if you do get that pop in the market and front month futures get back up there towards that 10 50 level, there's no doubt in my mind that you're gonna be looking at July beans closer to 11. And if that's the case, I've gotta think that's a heck of a good place to step in and and hedge off that carry.

Todd Gleason: 08:43

Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Matt Bennett: 08:46

Absolutely. Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 08:47

Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, we'll go back through some of the things that treasury secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed. He says that a meeting will take place between president Trump and Xi Jinping from China. Besson told Fox Business News that president Trump will meet with China Xi at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea next month despite their recent trade flare up.

Scott Bessent: 09:20

He will be meeting with party chair Xi in Korea. There has been substantial communication over the weekend.

Todd Gleason: 09:27

And president Trump had threatened a 100% tariff against China by November 1 after Beijing announced export controls on rare earth minerals used in military and civilian electronics. That was after Trump said he'd bring up China's effective ban on US soybeans at his planned summit meeting with Xi.

Donald Trump: 09:46

He's got things that he wants to discuss with me, and I have things that I wanna discuss with him. And what are the things the Soviets

Todd Gleason: 09:52

The US president threatened not to meet with Xi after Beijing announced export controls, but then posted on True Social that things should work out with China. Besson sounded a note of optimism.

Scott Bessent: 10:03

I am optimistic that this can be deescalated.

Todd Gleason: 10:06

Besson said talks with Beijing will continue and that mister Trump could choose not to impose new tariffs on China, but the treasury secretary said all options were on the table to discourage Chinese export controls. We'll stay with this row between The United States and China and the recent developments. The US and China have begun charging competing port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. Reuters says the new fees will make the high seas a key front in the continuing trade war between the world's biggest economies. China had started collecting the levies on US owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese built ships are exempt from the same levies, the China imposed extra port fees will be collected at the first port of entry on a single voyage or the first five voyages within a year.

Todd Gleason: 11:02

Earlier this year, president Donald Trump had also announced plans to levy fees on China linked ships to loosen the country's grip on the global maritime industry and boost US shipbuilding. Yahoo News says an investigation during president Joe Biden's administration found that China uses unfair trade policies and practices to dominate the global maritime logistics and building sectors. And finally today on this same topic, Chinese soybean imports jumped year over year. That's right. Chinese soybean imports jumped year over year in September as total purchases of all products surged.

Todd Gleason: 11:39

Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients that soybean imports by volume jumped more than 13% last month versus 1.2% in August. Imports from Brazil were up 24% in September, which compares with a 1.4% year over year decline in August. However, purchases from The United States were down more than 16% on an annual basis, in line with the previous month's decline. Total imports into China jumped seven and a half percent. A surprise to the market watchers, the trade surplus with The United States narrowed to 90,500,000,000.0 despite concerns of an imminent sharp slowdown in external demand.

Todd Gleason: 12:21

The data from China highlighted continued resilience in exports supported by the ongoing tech cycle and stable demand outside of The United States, reports Bank of America. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois public media on this Thursday afternoon. Do visit our website at willag.org where you can pick up your tickets today for the farm assets conference or the Illinois farm economic summits. The farm assets conference at the Agricenter in Bloomington on the December this year.

Todd Gleason: 12:57

That's a Friday. And then the Illinois Farm Economic Summits follow in DeKalb, Peoria, and Mount Vernon on Monday the fifteenth through Wednesday the seventeenth or the following week in December. Check out all the details and get yourself registered. These are two different kinds of events, so you might want to attend both. But either way, you can register through our website at willag.0rg or visit the PharmDoc Daily website and look under the webinars and events upcoming tab.

Todd Gleason: 13:41

Now let's talk about the popularity of ethanol, not here in The United States where 10% of every gallon of gasoline pumped into an automobile or mostly 10% has ethanol in it. There's no question, of course, that that's a very popular choice right here in The US. But what about the rest of the world? Well, Doug Bourbon is the vice president of corporate affairs with POET.

Doug Berven: 14:07

Yeah. Around the world, it's interesting because gasoline and diesel are still popular choices. Okay? But biofuels are coming on strong in many, many countries. In fact, last year, we set a record in exports around the world from The United States of bioethanol.

Doug Berven: 14:24

This year, we're on pace to break that record again. So you've got countries like Brazil. Their minimum blend rate of ethanol is e 30 now. 30% ethanol is the lowest blend rate you can get at a gas pump. It's either 30 bioethanol or a 100% bioethanol.

Doug Berven: 14:42

Believe it. That's their choices. There is no e 10 or e 15. It's 30 or a 100%.

Todd Gleason: 14:47

And there are some countries that Bourbon thinks are prime targets.

Doug Berven: 14:51

Now in India, they have just gone to an e 20 blend rate nationwide. And interesting there, they have banned the use of sugarcane in the country to make ethanol, which is also a popular feedstock. If you make bioethanol out of sugarcane, you hinder the sugar market. So they're banning sugarcane from being used and just using maize or corn in India. Canada is moving to E15 quickly.

Doug Berven: 15:19

Japan is talking about E10 now. The EU and The UK and Southern Asia all are moving to higher blend rates of ethanol.

Todd Gleason: 15:29

This is because they're discovering that there are advantages to using ethanol.

Doug Berven: 15:33

Number one, it's less expensive. Number two, it's clean. Number three, it reduces cost to the consumer. Number four, it's perfectly fine for all cars. The good news is we're seeing great implementation of higher blends of bioethanol around the world.

Todd Gleason: 15:49

Doug Bourbon is with POET. They are a primary producer of ethanol in The United States. Our thanks go to NAFB member Joanna Guza of Midwest Communications in Green Bay, Wisconsin for the audio bites from Doug Bourbon at POET. You're listening to agricultural programming from the campus of the University of Illinois where we're celebrating forty years of this program, the closing market report, twenty years of our podcast, and twenty five years of the PharmDoc website. Let's turn our attention to the global growing regions and conditions in them.

Todd Gleason: 16:30

Mike Tenure is here. He's the president and CEO at t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us again.

Mike Tannura: 16:38

Yeah. Great being back, Todd. Nice talking to you.

Todd Gleason: 16:41

We have a lot to cover actually, and it appears that some of the soft red winter growing regions of this nation may be picking up some rainfall. Tell me about conditions on the ground. I think it's been really dry, and then what this rainfall might mean.

Mike Tannura: 16:57

Well, it's certainly been very dry in the Corn Belt. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio all would benefit from a big rain. We do have a significant event on the way. A couple of systems are going to move across the Corn Belt this weekend and early next week and we think there's going to be anywhere from one to one and a half inches of rain across much of each of these states. That will certainly provide a soil moisture improvement for soft red winter wheat.

Mike Tannura: 17:23

And we will need more rain to follow after this, but at least this is going to get us moving in the right direction. The last sixty days have been unusually dry in all these states, and as you know they've been unusually warm. The warmth is going to continue even though these systems are passing. Each one will drop temperatures a little bit behind the rain events, but it doesn't lead to a major pattern change in that regard. So just turning water, but not necessarily cooler.

Todd Gleason: 17:49

By how many degrees do you suppose over that time? And then is that still above what the normal at this time of year might be in parts of the Midwest?

Mike Tannura: 17:58

Well, we think temperatures are going to be four to eight degrees warmer than normal over the next two weeks in the Central US, and that's even including a couple of cold snaps that happen behind these rains. So that's unusually warm time. We've been around eight degrees to 10 degrees above normal over the first half of this month, And that's essentially going to continue in some fashion, maybe not as strongly, but that's still a big departure. And the last September was unusually warm, so we're just in this very mild period and there's really no signs of cold weather out there. Me personally, I like winter, I like snowstorms.

Mike Tannura: 18:36

I know that might be unusual for people to hear, but another one of these winters of mild and wet and little snow, it's hard to go too far into the future with this, but this is not usually the way a cold winter sets up. But you never know, but at least for now, there's really no end in sight to this warmth.

Todd Gleason: 18:57

Turn your attention to the Southern Hemisphere, South America particularly. Tell me about conditions in the primary growing regions of Argentina and Brazil.

Mike Tannura: 19:07

Well, everything is pretty quiet as of today. Argentina saw some very wet weather back in August and September, but it's been drying out over the last couple of weeks and that's aiding their planting and their wheat development. In Southern Brazil it's kind of the same story where they've been getting a little bit of rain here and there, but not too wet, not too dry, although they are dealing with a pretty big thunderstorm cluster today. But overall, Southern Brazil is looking pretty quiet. And then as you move into Central And Northern Brazil, it's a little bit dicier as you move into this area.

Mike Tannura: 19:39

They had an early start to the rainy season in parts of Mato Grosso. That was back in September, but as soon as it looked like the rainy season was going to start, it ended and it really hasn't been raining very much at all over the last two weeks. Now in the central and northern areas, do have some concerns going forward. It's going to be drier than normal through the end of the month. If you combine that with the first half of the month being pretty dry, it doesn't take much to end up with one of the drier October's on record for the northern half of its soybean belt.

Mike Tannura: 20:09

Now being dry in October is not necessarily indicative of a major problem, but it's certainly not the way you'd like to start your season. They like to get some pretty nice rains in October to plant, and then the bigger rains will eventually come up in November, December, and January. So the ideal situation for them does not appear to be developing just because of this dry setup. As you move into Southern Brazil, the story is going to change a little bit too. We've been talking about how things are looking okay there, but they are dealing with some rain today.

Mike Tannura: 20:41

They have some more heavy rain on the way through tomorrow, and even though they dry out after that, there are some more rain events coming up in around ten to fifteen days. So all in all, nothing to get too excited about, but some of these areas will turn a little bit wetter than ideal. And if anybody is going to end up too wet, it will more than likely end up being in Paraguay. Paraguay is to the immediate West of Southern Brazil, and it is an important area, so that'll be something to watch. That same setup, Todd, is also unfolding for Argentina.

Mike Tannura: 21:11

We mentioned that it was wet earlier this year, and August and September was the second wettest of the last forty seven years across this key growing region and the wettest since 2012. Even though they haven't had a lot of rain this month and there's not really much coming up over the next five to seven days, you can see that a pretty major event is on the way soon after that. So late next week and next weekend, a pretty big event is going to unfold. Will that turn Argentina too wet? That remains to be seen and it probably depends on what happens at the end of the month and in early November.

Mike Tannura: 21:44

But the whole point of this whole South America discussion is that there are some things to monitor in these areas, though none of it really has a major effect on yield potential at this moment.

Todd Gleason: 21:54

Hey, thanks much. We appreciate it. We'll look forward to talking with you again next week.

Mike Tannura: 21:58

Yeah, that sounds great Todd. Thanks a lot.

Todd Gleason: 22:00

Mike Tenure is the president and CEO of T Storm Weather. Find him online at tstorm.net. You may find us online at wilag.org. That's willag.0rg. There you'll find information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist updated each and every day of the business week along with the closing market report, commodity week, of course, which will record this afternoon and post there by about 06:00 this evening, as well as other information from Illinois public media and the FarmDoc team, including the Farm Assets Conference registration information along with the Illinois Farm Economic Summits.

Todd Gleason: 22:42

Those are coming up in the December. That'll be on the twelfth, the Friday for the farm assets conference, and then the following Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for the Illinois farm economic summits. You can find more details about them again on our website at willag.org. You have a very good Thursday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extensions, Todd Gleeson.