Oct 28 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the land of Grand University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloom. She's total@farmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin.

Todd Gleason: 00:17

Britney Goodrich will be her ag economist from the FarmDoc team and the University of Illinois to discuss insurance, federally subsidized insurance for beekeepers, including hobbyists. You want to stay with us for that one. And as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at hurricane Melissa with Dundee and what the weather forecast looks like here in the Corn Belt and in South America on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace.

Todd Gleason: 00:58

Hello, Naomi. Thanks for being with us. I bet you have just had a ball over the last several days working through everything that's been happening on the world marketplace as the president has been traveling. And there have been developments on beef side, with Argentina, with Colombia, with Japan, things that could happen with China. What what's top of your mind that's most important for today, Tuesday, October?

Naomi Blohm: 01:37

Well, all of it's important, and I don't think one particular thing is standing out. It it just feels like we're juggling more and more and more balls into the air, and I'm at the point where I'm like, at what point does the market just drop all of them, or can we keep the juggling occurring for the rest of the week? Of course, we've got a lot of little trade deals going on behind the scenes and then the potential for some better news with China later in the week, but specifically, we're still looking for a specific amount or number of soybeans that China may have purchased or is planning to purchase, and so that's the big question mark on the grain side. And we also know that at any time, President Trump or President Xi could just walk away from the deal and say, Forget it, and then prices could come crashing back down lower. So, we're balancing a lot fundamentally.

Naomi Blohm: 02:28

We're balancing a lot technically. We're also seeing the funds exit short positions with some gusto. Like yesterday, the funds bought back 20,000 contracts of soybeans and bought back 11,000 contracts of corn and bought back over 5,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. So there's there's a lot going on. There's a lot of moving parts, and the week is not over yet, friends.

Naomi Blohm: 02:52

It's only Tuesday.

Todd Gleason: 02:54

Well, I do wanna know about Tuesday, because there was follow through buying today, and at some point, it appears to have petered out. What happened?

Naomi Blohm: 03:03

Well, there were a couple of things that happened over the newswire. There was a report of an opinion that the Trump, The US and and China trade deal wasn't gonna go through, and so that spooked some profit taking. So we did see from our highs earlier in the day a little bit of profit taking, almost a turnaround Tuesday, but grains were able to hang in there and stay positive. But from a technical perspective, the wheat got close to the hundred day moving average, corn got close-up to the two hundred day moving average, and for corn, every nickel increment is another resistance area. So it's just cautiously climbing higher, but very, very aware of not going too much higher while we're still waiting on final yield numbers and USDA reports that'll be hopefully coming up here in the future.

Naomi Blohm: 03:54

But it was just a headline that came across from my perspective that someone had the opinion that the trade deal maybe wasn't gonna get done.

Todd Gleason: 04:01

So the marketplace being driven by headlines, things that are not exactly fundamentals at this time, so I'd say buy the rumor, sell the fact kind of function, potentially. That's usually how it is put in the marketplace. By the time we get to any announcement, which would come Thursday or I suppose maybe later in the week, what do you think the marketplace will be looking at?

Naomi Blohm: 04:26

Well, we're gonna be looking for the specific number of beans. That's the reality. So if China says that they're gonna buy 10,000,000 metric tons of US beans to meet that December need, that's about 360,000,000 bushels, and that is only still half of what China would normally buy from us. So that may be viewed, to your point, as by the rumors all the fact that, of course, welcome news, totally welcome news, but compared to where we were with them, not enough. Now, if they come up with a number more than that, then I think that'll be continued to be friendly towards the market, and we could see some additional technical buying because of that.

Naomi Blohm: 05:01

And then we'll start to go back to keeping an eye on where we all think the yields are gonna end up with this marketplace, along with looking at the domestic demand for corn and beans both.

Todd Gleason: 05:10

So how is it that you think farmers should consider this week in all the news that's coming in? They're in the market clearly because they've got harvest happening or grain in the bin or storage at the elevator, one of the two. But do they step aside? Do they make some kind of adjustments in their marketing? What do you think?

Naomi Blohm: 05:30

Well, with the soybean rally that we've had here, it's been nearly a dollar in just two weeks for soybeans. And so if you are now at the point where you're gonna be looking to make some sales, reward the rally. I mean, it's been a dollar rally higher. And then now, also, I mean, from a technical perspective, it does look like maybe it could go higher yet. However, if this trade deal doesn't happen or if we have a buy the rumor, sell the fact mentality, the market could easily erode 50¢ quickly.

Naomi Blohm: 06:00

So you might wanna consider, and we had a few folks today call and ask about buying some just short term soybean puts. The December cereal options are available now. They're good for just a few weeks. But just to cover unpriced bushels in case you're wanting to store them, but now we've got this dollar rally to protect, so that might be something to consider as well. But in general, we're keeping an eye on basis levels, which at The Gulf had improved a little bit this week, but overall throughout the Midwest, it's a mixed bag.

Naomi Blohm: 06:31

If a place was deficit on grain, their basis continues to be stronger, but places like the Dakotas still have a wider basis in general, and, everybody's situation is a little bit unique and different. But it just proves to the point how the markets can change so quickly on a headline or on a sentiment that even though you're still busy wrapping up harvest, please, please, please keep an eye on these markets because they are just moving dramatically on all of these headlines and market perceptions right now.

Todd Gleason: 07:00

I have a question on basis in the West because soybean basis is pretty easy to peg as wide because they aren't moving soybeans, to China. The United States simply is not. Those would go out the PNW. What does corn basis tell you about the size of the crop out there, if anything?

Naomi Blohm: 07:17

In the Dakotas, they have not struggled with southern rust in the corn crop. So we are hearing that their corn yields are coming in average. No one is really saying exceptional. No one seems to be complaining that it's worse, but we're they were seeing that their basis is still historically wide on corn, similar to like it is soybeans, so that is telling us that there is enough product available for now at harvest time. And, of course, as, the final bits of harvest are coming to town, the basis probably has the ability to stay wider as harvest wraps up.

Todd Gleason: 07:51

Hey. Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Naomi Blohm: 07:54

Alright. Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 07:55

That's Naomi Bloem. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. We're now joined by Brittany Goodrich. She's part of the PharmDoc team, an agricultural economist on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois, a member of the College of Agricultural Consumer and Environmental Sciences. Thank you, Brittany, for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 08:20

You've been following along and have written an article for the Farm Doc Daily website, and people can search that out under your name, authors, Britney Goodrich. But this one is about something a little unique. It is a beekeeping crop insurance program subsidized by the United States Department of Agriculture. Can you tell me a little bit about it, please?

Brittney Goodrich: 08:43

Yeah. Of course. So, just a little bit of background. So obviously, we know that, you know, traditional crop producers, corn and soybean growers have had crop insurance going back until the the nineteen eighties, and even even before that. And so in relatively recent years, USDA has made an effort to provide federally subsidized crop insurance programs for livestock operations.

Brittney Goodrich: 09:13

And people will think it sounds a little weird that I'm, calling beekeeping operations livestock operations. But, essentially, most of the honeybee colonies in The US are managed by very large commercial operations that effectively, you know, raise these bees as livestock and and produce honey, or provide pollination services to crop growers. And so this is, you know, USDA's effort to provide some risk management for for beekeeping operations. And so this is called an, it's called the Apiculture Rainfall Index Insurance Program. The idea behind the program is that, when there is lower than average rainfall, that means that flowers are are fewer flowers are blooming, which means less nectar and pollen for honeybee colonies.

Brittney Goodrich: 10:18

So what that means on the producer side is less honey production. And in some cases, if, you know, the drought is severe enough, the beekeeper will actually have to pay, for some sugar syrup or some other food substitutes to actually feed the colonies. And and because otherwise they would they would naturally eat the honey production, but if they've made no honey, there's nothing for them to eat. And so beekeepers have to feed them, to keep them alive. And and this is not a a perfect substitute for honey.

Brittney Goodrich: 10:55

Honey is much more nutritious than, some of these artificial food substitutes. And and so then beekeepers can have higher colony losses, or other adverse effects from from lower than average rainfall. So this is essentially meant to ensure against lower than average rainfall and the the corresponding revenue and cost implications for beekeeping operations that would come from that.

Todd Gleason: 11:23

Let's start with a couple of facts related to beekeeping in this nation, and also related to the ability to enroll, I suppose. How many bee colonies are there in The United States, and how many in the state of Illinois?

Brittney Goodrich: 11:41

Oh, this is a good question. So there's roughly in The United States, there's roughly about, I I think the the numbers are 2,800,000 colonies in The United States total. In Illinois, according to USDA, the most recent numbers we have are from, 2023, are around, 11,000 colonies total in in Illinois. And so in here in Illinois, we have relatively low enrollment in this program. So only in 2025, only about 600 colonies were actually enrolled in aquaculture insurance, which is a very small percentage.

Brittney Goodrich: 12:28

I think it's, you know, somewhere around 2% of colonies were actually enrolled in this, you know, federal crop insurance program in in 2025. So there's a lot of room for expansion, here in Illinois for for folks to enroll in this in this risk management program.

Todd Gleason: 12:50

So what do you have to do in order to qualify?

Brittney Goodrich: 12:53

So you have to, you know, keep bees, obviously. And what's great about this program is, you could enroll as few as one colonies if you wanted to to go around and mess with all the paperwork to to enroll one colony in the program. So it is good for small beekeepers. The caveat to that is, you know, to qualify for the crop insurance subsidy, you do need to have a USDA FSA, so Farm Service Agency, farm number. So that may discourage, some very small hobby beekeepers from participating in the program.

Brittney Goodrich: 13:41

But, you know, if you are a large enough operation and or maybe you have, you know, you're a big grain producing operation, but you have a few colonies on the side, you could certainly qualify and enroll as few as as as one of your colonies in this program.

Todd Gleason: 14:02

Okay. I'll jump down to the summary of this, because you say that this isn't sufficient risk management on its own. I'm wondering other what kinds of other practices there might be. And then for those who want to know more, they can either visit the website farmdocdaily.illinois.edu and search out You as the Author, Britney Goodrich, or they can join us on Thursday morning of this week at 11:00 for a full webinar on it. So tell me about, first, some of the why this isn't enough and then about, the webinar that you have coming up on Thursday.

Brittney Goodrich: 14:43

Yeah. So, certainly this is not I mean, I think any, you know, traditional crop grower knows that that, you know, crop insurance on its own is is not a sufficient risk management strategy, especially this product in terms of beekeeping. It only protects against losses from lower than average rainfall. So there's a lot of other things that can go on in a beekeeping operation. I mean, operations are impacted by temperature, as well as a number of other pests and diseases, that may or may not be affected by by rainfall.

Brittney Goodrich: 15:25

And so other risk management practices that beekeepers need to to be thinking about are obviously, you know, managing your colonies well. It's, I think it's a common misconception, but it's actually very labor intensive to keep bee colonies. So, looking at your Varroa mite loads in your colony to make sure that, they're not growing too much. Diversifying your apiary or your bee locations is another good way. So if you, you know, don't get enough rain in one area, you may get a sufficient amount in another.

Brittney Goodrich: 16:03

The opposite could be said, for, too much rainfall, which this product does not cover against. And so bees have a really hard time flying when it's raining, thunderstorming. And so if you diversify your your apiary locations, that's another, good way to kind of ensure that you're going to get some honey production, you know, somewhere. So those are all strategies that you can take. And like you said, Todd, I am doing a webinar on this project and product, and we're going to get more into, there's a lot of different decisions that have to be made for this this, beekeeping insurance product, including beekeepers ensure

Naomi Blohm: 16:57

they have

Brittney Goodrich: 16:57

to choose the months of the year when they want to insure against lower than average rainfall. And so, on Thursday at eleven central time, I'll be doing a webinar on this product, and we'll dive more into the specifics of of, you know, all of the different choices that you have to make for this insurance product, including, how to go about making those decisions about the time of year or, yeah, the time period during the year when you should think about ensuring. But folks that are interested can either join this webinar, FarmDoc webinar. If you go to the FarmDoc website and click on webinars, you can you can find it linked there. You can find, more information on, the PharmDoc Daily article that I had.

Brittney Goodrich: 17:50

And this insurance product does have to be purchased by or from a USDA crop insurance agent. So you can also there's a few other, resources linked in the PharmDoc, daily article, and we'll talk about it in the webinar that you can go to to look into this product further.

Todd Gleason: 18:12

Brittany Goodrich, of course, is an agricultural economist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois, a member of the FarmDoc team. We've been talking about managing risk in beekeeping and understanding the Apiculture Rainfall Index insurance program. The webinar is eleven a. M. As she said on Thursday morning.

Todd Gleason: 18:33

It's free to register for. You can find both the webinar and the article on the PharmDoc Daily website. The webinar is under the webinars events and look under authors for Brittany Goodrich to find the article. Let's turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Don Day is here.

Todd Gleason: 19:04

He's from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Don, this week, I'd like to start with hurricane Melissa. It is an enormous storm system. By comparison, how big is it to others we've seen?

Don Day: 19:19

Well, in terms of size, it's not that remarkable. We've seen larger hurricanes in terms of width and breadth. But in terms of intensity and this system has achieved a 185 mile per hour wind gust and is plowing through Jamaica right now. It's certainly the biggest hurricane, strongest hurricane of the season to date. We had a situation which was just ripe down in that part of the world for this to come together here at the tail end of hurricane season.

Don Day: 19:51

You haven't heard about any tropical storm or hurricane activity in this part of the world all season, and that's one reason why Melissa had so much warm water and the right conditions to work with because a lot of times, if there's been a tropical storm or hurricane in that particular area, tends to cool the waters, kinda make things harder for the next one to come in. So it was the perfect storm, so speak.

Todd Gleason: 20:15

What does the track look like after it passes through and over Jamaica?

Don Day: 20:19

So as it clips the western parts of Jamaica here over the coming hours, it's going to be picking up speed and moving north then North northeast and will gain forward momentum, but it's gonna after dumping 20 to three inches of rain in parts of Jamaica, it's gonna drop upwards to 12 to 20 inches of rain across parts of Eastern Cuba, maybe catching Western areas of Haiti before rapidly heading out into the Atlantic here by Thursday and Friday. But for the next twelve to twenty four hours, it's going to be a very impactful hurricane for those areas.

Todd Gleason: 20:56

Certainly not much of an impact, I guess, on the East Coast. You can tell me about that and and by its distance and very little here in my part of the world.

Don Day: 21:07

Yeah. We're we're gonna see some elevated sea state. I mean, you're gonna have some more wave action along the coast of Florida, parts of the Southeastern United States. But the way the system is gonna curve to the Northeast and move out to sea rapidly, it'll eventually run into some cold water and fall apart. So Mainland US really is gonna have bigger impacts from the nor'easter right now that's bringing heavy wave action and some stormy weather to the Northeast.

Todd Gleason: 21:33

Here in Illinois, we're getting a little rainfall today. That came across the Corn Belt. Can you tell me about it?

Don Day: 21:40

Yeah. We've got a storm system that came out of the Rockies, and it's taking a route that is gonna take, the heavier moisture into the southern areas, Missouri, Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, into Kentucky, into Arkansas, and then into Tennessee. We also have an area of rain that stretches north south from Minnesota through a good part of Iowa and part of Northwestern areas of Illinois. We're gonna see that moisture slide eastward into the Southeastern areas of The United States where actually they could use it in the Carolinas and parts of the Mid Atlantic that have actually been a little bit dry this fall.

Todd Gleason: 22:17

Turn your attention to South America now. How are things progressing from your perspective in both Argentina and to Brazil?

Don Day: 22:24

Well, it's been warmer and drier over the last several weeks down there, but over the next ten days, we're gonna see an increase in rain. This is especially true across Brazil. This will coincide with some cooler temperatures as well. The coldest temperatures will be in Argentina. Argentina is not going to do as well with the rain.

Don Day: 22:46

Some of the northern areas will pick up rain, but a lot of the key growing areas of Southern Brazil are looking at the best rain they've seen in weeks.

Todd Gleason: 22:52

K. Thanks much. I appreciate it, and we'll talk with you again next week.

Don Day: 22:57

Sounds good.

Todd Gleason: 22:57

Dundee is with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON: