- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
From the land of Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM.
Todd Gleason: 00:14That's totalgrainmarketing.com. We'll take a look at the weather forecast too as we close out our time together. Drew Lerner will be here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Along the way, I'll tell you how to get yourself registered for the December Farm Assets and Illinois Farm Economic Summit conferences. They're in Bloomington for the Farm Assets Conference, and then the following week in December in DeKalb, Peoria and Mount Vernon, I think you should go to both the IFAS series as well as the Farm Assets Conference.
Todd Gleason: 00:48Registration is on our webpage right now. Details coming up at illag.0rg during this edition of the closing market report. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.34. That was too higher on the afternoon.
Todd Gleason: 01:09The March at $4.46 and three quarters, up three quarters, and May unchanged. Settlement price there at $4.55 a bushel. November soybeans, 2¢ higher at $10.80 and a quarter. January, 3 quarters of cent lower. The March beans down a penny and a half at $11, a nickel and a quarter.
Todd Gleason: 01:29Bean meal futures were up $2.20. Bean oil down a dime. Wheat futures, soft red, up three and a quarter in the December at $5.33 and 3 quarters. The hard red December at five twenty two and three quarters, up two and three quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures up $4.32 and a half cents.
Todd Gleason: 01:46Feeders $9.15 higher, and lean hogs a nickel lower for the day. Crude oil at $60.52 a barrel, up 37¢, and gasoline, two and three tenths of a cent higher per gallon. Greg Johnson from TTN, that's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Greg. Thanks for being with us today.
Greg Johnson: 02:06Good being with you, especially with all the good news we've got to talk about.
Todd Gleason: 02:10Well, tell me about all the good news we have to talk about.
Greg Johnson: 02:13Well, the market is anticipating good news coming out of The US China trade talks, when president Trump and president Xi meet tomorrow. So, we've had a nice run up, the last two days. We had a little bit of a sell off early Wednesday, but, markets are coming back and, stock market's up strong. So it feels like the markets are anticipating good news to come out of that meeting tomorrow between president Trump and president Xi, and that, is, providing some very good support to, both the corn and soybean markets.
Todd Gleason: 02:45It does feel that way, though. There have been shifting sands throughout the week as to what might be agreed upon and how good the news might be. Are you concerned that the marketplace might see an agreement and then understand that the agreement does not much but kick the can down the road, I suppose?
Greg Johnson: 03:05Sure. Sure. I maybe I I I do not anticipate a lot of details to be announced tomorrow. I think that it's just gonna be the tenor of the meeting, the tone of the meeting. You know, if if nobody calls each other names and points fingers at each other, you know, you have to consider that somewhat of a success.
Greg Johnson: 03:22But but you're right. I mean, if you look at it and drill down, China has bought enough beans already from South America to cover their needs for, through November. There is a window in December and January where they do need some beans. So, hopefully, we'll see some kind of an announcement that, China's gonna buy a few beans for that December, January time frame. And then sometime in February or March, the South American crop will come back online, and the the odds are that China will continue to resume buying from Brazil again and Argentina.
Greg Johnson: 03:54So we do have a small window and it's not gonna be anything close to what we've sold them in the past, but at this point, anything is better than zero and psychologically it's giving the market a little bit of a boost. But, you know, is this news or this announcement gonna take us to $12? No. No. But at least we're 90 some cents, 95¢ higher than where we were back in August when, when we had the doom and gloom.
Greg Johnson: 04:21So corn prices are $40.40 cents higher than where we were on that August 12 crop report date, and the beans are 95¢ higher. So we'll take that as a win.
Todd Gleason: 04:30Corn prices above $4, I suspect, at your facility, but I don't know if that's
Greg Johnson: 04:35the
Todd Gleason: 04:35case. Has that pushed producers to make any sales?
Greg Johnson: 04:40Well, it would if they had to make sales, but if they need cash flow, it feels like they're selling beans as we approach that $10.5 cash price. And even though corn here at our elevator is well over $4 it's at the $4.15 range basically. Farmers have been tight holders of corn. They see the good export sales every week. They know that the yields are down in Iowa.
Greg Johnson: 05:09At least we hear that they're down in Iowa. Here in Illinois the yields are lower in Southern Illinois, but we dodged a bullet here in Central Illinois. We've got very good yields, not as good as last year, but probably just single digit losses compared to expectations of double digit losses in yield. And Northern Illinois is ringing the bell. So the Illinois state yield probably will come down a little bit, but not a lot.
Greg Johnson: 05:34But if and when the government ever does reopen and we start seeing state by state breakdowns, I think the market is fully expecting Iowa to take it on the chin as far as dropping the yield. So nationwide, that might get us back down to one eighty two. And then, of course, you lower your feed demand, maybe you lower the ethanol usage a little bit. And so your carryout is still in that 1.8, 1,900,000,000 bushel carryout. Still plenty of corn, but at least it's not 2.1, which is where it was the last time the government issued a report.
Greg Johnson: 06:06So I would say farmers are friendly. I don't think they're bullish. I think we're getting close to approaching some price targets where farmers wanna sell not only old crop corn, but new crop corn as well, another 10¢, and, farmers may be willing to pull the trigger. But as far as beans are concerned, we've had a nice almost dollar rally, and I think farmers are more willing to sell soybeans on this rally so far than they have been to sell corn.
Todd Gleason: 06:31Is there any reason that they've looked to sell new crop soybeans as well?
Greg Johnson: 06:34Yes. Yes. $11 on the board. If we could get a little bit more, if we could get $11 cash at the local elevator, I think farmers would sell, you know, and and I can't talk them out of that. We spent all this year, hanging around $10, sometimes 40¢ lower, sometimes 40¢ higher, but basically we average $10 cash price for soybeans in all of 2025.
Greg Johnson: 06:58So what's wrong with starting somewhere close to $11 for next year at the full dollar higher than where we sold the beans this year? And nobody's saying sell all of them, but to get a good start on it and hope that the price goes even higher and we'll sell more when it does. But $11 I think at 75 bushels to the acre, I think that pays the bills. So why not get a few bushels sold at those prices and and lock in a profit?
Todd Gleason: 07:22I was traveling in the area this morning. Harvest nearly complete. You can tell me how complete you think it is. I'm pretty sure. Mostly done.
Todd Gleason: 07:30And then then fall fieldwork being done as well already.
Greg Johnson: 07:34Yes. Yes. The the inch of rain that we had last week kept us out of the field for all of about a day. Other than that, somebody said they've been working in the field forty six consecutive days, which is almost unheard of. That tenth of an inch of rain that we got last night is not gonna keep people out of the field very long.
Greg Johnson: 07:52And there's no rain in the forecast for the next seven days. So most of the field work is going to be done, I would think, that needs to be done by the time the next rain rolls around. And as far as harvest is concerned, we're down to our last handful of customers that are still harvesting. So, you know, it'll it'll take a few more days to finish everybody up, but I would say we're 99 something percent done with, both corn and bean harvest.
Todd Gleason: 08:18How concerned do you think the trade is that we won't see or probably will not see a November crop production report?
Greg Johnson: 08:24Yeah. The one time the farmers would love to see the government, up and running is when the potential is there for good news to be released in one of these reports. And I think the expectation is that that report would be friendly, lowering the yield and getting this carryout down from over 2,000,000,000 bushels to under 2,000,000,000 bushels. But that's not gonna happen, I don't think. Even if the government would open up tomorrow, I don't think that gives them time to release a November report.
Greg Johnson: 08:52So unfortunately, it feels like we may have to wait till the December report before we get any numbers from the US government.
Todd Gleason: 08:59How dry was the corn crop when it came in to you this year?
Greg Johnson: 09:03I think it's a record. I think our average moisture was just over 15%, which is unheard of. A lot of corn was in as dry as 13%. Some of it was 17%, but on average it was in the 15 to 16 range. Soybeans, the same way.
Greg Johnson: 09:22A lot of beans were below 13%. They were in the 10. I'd say we probably averaged 11% on soybeans. So it was very dry. So no drying income, but, from a farmer's point of view, no drying expense either.
Greg Johnson: 09:36So, you know, you add that to these good prices, and, and the yields were better than expected, and, you know, things could have been a lot worse, I guess.
Todd Gleason: 09:44And I asked that purposely because I was thinking if we don't have a November crop production report, then the survey data that is collected from farmers in December is the only item really that we'll have as it's related to, what's stored in the bin. And sometimes if it's really dry, farmers underreport how much grain they actually have just because bins are volume based. And it doesn't sound like that will be the case this year, that everything's kinda right at 15 and a half. And if it's a 30,000 bushel bin, that's probably what is in it.
Greg Johnson: 10:17Well, and the other thing related to that is I think farmers are more willing to put corn in bags, to use it in a flat storage building, to maybe use a bin that they haven't used in some time if the corn is dry because a lot of these bins don't have dryers attached to them. They they only have air, and some of them don't even have air. So, you know, if you can put grain that's 15% or less directly into a bag or a bin or a quonset, I think there's a little bit more corn starch that that that's gotten stored on farm than than what had to come to town.
Todd Gleason: 10:52You think farmers will accurately, in that case, be able to, consider how much how many bushels are really there?
Greg Johnson: 10:59You know? No. I don't think so. I I don't think the trade will be able to do that either, and that's probably the one benefit of the government, being shut down with no government reports. It's hard to get accurate information.
Greg Johnson: 11:11So when the market trades, you might have higher highs. Now at some point in time, that could come back to haunt us, and we'll have lower lows as well. But, if the overwhelming sentiment seems to be lower yields and farmers are tight holders, we may overestimate how much corn or how little corn is really being moved to the marketplace and we may see a little bit higher price than what we would have otherwise.
Todd Gleason: 11:33Okay. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
Greg Johnson: 11:36Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 11:37You're welcome. Thank you. That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing right here in Champaign County. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason: 11:47Our theme music is written and performed courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Do visit our website at willag.org where you can sign up today for the December twelve farm assets conference. It's in Bloomington this year. It's a Friday. We hope to see you there or at one of the Illinois Farm Economic Summit, frankly, at both if you can.
Todd Gleason: 12:10The IFAS series comes up the following week. The Ag Economist will be at both. The Crop Scientist will be with us at the Farm Assets Conference and others from the associations as well as other places involved in agriculture at the Farm Assets Conference. Details are online at our website. The address is willag.org, willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason: 12:32Full details in the PharmDoc daily website under events. However, there's just a link from willag.org to the registration page. From that PharmDoc site, thank you for getting yourself registered early. That helps us out greatly. Now space is limited in Bloomington, so be sure to get yourself signed up now.
Todd Gleason: 12:52Don't wait. The PharmAssets Conference comes up the December. That's a Friday in Bloomington. Just a quick note about tomorrow's federal beekeeping insurance program webinar that the PharmDoc team will host. That starts at 11:00.
Todd Gleason: 13:11It is for hobbyists and those who are beekeepers for a business as well. If you're not used to federal crop insurance or livestock insurance for that matter, you might want to join this one because there may be even for the hobbyists some things that are useful. You'll find that all out from Britney Goodrich during tomorrow's 11AM webinar. You can sign up for it today through our website. Look for it in the calendar of events.
Todd Gleason: 13:39You'll scroll down the page at willag.org and then look for the red highlighted eleven a. M. Federal Beekeeping Insurance Program. Just click on it and you can cut and paste the registration link. Let's check-in on the weather forecast in the growing regions across the planet.
Todd Gleason: 14:11Drew Lerner is here with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, I would like you to start, however, today with hurricane Melissa. It crossed over Jamaica, running through Cuba, and then off into the Atlantic Ocean later. This storm is enormous, not geographic exactly, but it's just incredibly powerful. Can you tell me about it from your perspective?
Drew Lerner: 14:38Yes. You know, from my perspective, what an incredible event. You know, I've been doing this for about forty six years, and there's only been a couple of storms that have been like this. You know, we know about some of the others, you know, but this one is pretty impressive. It you know, the smaller storms tend to be more powerful, and this one certainly was with a 165 mile an hour winds.
Drew Lerner: 15:03Actually, some reports of a 185 mile per hour winds coming into Jamaica, of course, when it arrived, moved across the interior Western part of Jamaica. The storm, the eye of the storm was about 30 miles wide. So at one point it probably included two thirds of western parts of Jamaica, But it was a slow mover. And because of that, the devastation in Jamaica has to be pretty serious. And the storm did go ahead and move across Eastern Cuba last night.
Drew Lerner: 15:33It is now about a 100 miles off the North Coast Of Eastern Cuba. And so the situation in Cuba was a little bit less intense relative to what was anticipated. I say that the winds were still a 120 miles per hour when it reached the coast. And the winds are now down to about a 100 miles an hour sustained near the center of the storm. It is going to pass through a part of the Southeastern Bahamas during the course of the afternoon, late afternoon and evening today and then be well on its way.
Drew Lerner: 16:06It should be the last land area to be impacted. It should pass to the West Of Bermuda. But, wow, what a storm. You know, international aid is already getting underway for Jamaica. I'm sure Cuba will be next in line there, and we'll just have to wait and see how bad it really was.
Todd Gleason: 16:24Any impact on the East Coast of the Continental United States at all?
Drew Lerner: 16:28For the most part, no. But it does you know, storms like this do tend to alter the upper wind flow pattern a little bit. So there's been a little bit of a drier tendency in the Southeast United States because of this, but certainly nothing more dramatic than that. The US is dealing with its own drier than usual scenario. We have managed to get a couple of decent rains recently, and that's so important.
Drew Lerner: 16:55But, you know, the heart of the Midwest is still quite dry, and that really doesn't have much to do with the hurricane. It's it's just a pattern we're gonna be stuck with for a while.
Todd Gleason: 17:05For a while, how long and what areas are the primary targets? I know I'm sitting in one of those.
Drew Lerner: 17:11That's right. Central Illinois, certainly areas off to the east into parts Indiana and and parts of Ohio. Certainly we've had a couple of little rain events, but we did a soil assessment yesterday and we're still very short on the moisture profile in much of that region despite what little rain we have had recently. From a winter wheat perspective, you know, every little bit helps that crop germinate and emerge. It doesn't require large volumes of moisture to get started with, but we do need to put moisture in the ground so that crop has something to work with down the road.
Drew Lerner: 17:44It's getting late. Know, we got a lot of cool air around right now. The outlook for the month of November puts us back into below normal precipitation across the heart of the Midwest. I don't think we're gonna see too many storms of significance, certainly not in the November. In the second half, we might do a little bit better, but it looks like the tendency for the winter, at least the first half of winter in general is probably going to favor the Middle And Upper Atlantic Coast states and maybe Ohio and parts of Eastern Kentucky for rain and snow.
Drew Lerner: 18:18But the farther west you go, the lighter the precipitation might be except possibly in the Upper Midwest, Minnesota and Wisconsin, maybe a part of the Eastern Dakotas. Those areas might be a little bit wetter by us during the first half of winter.
Todd Gleason: 18:31Let's talk about wheat growing regions. Can you begin with the hard red winter regions of The United States, sowing season in the fall, and then move to Argentina and start to move northward from there. Talk about, the wheat, how that overwintered, and coming out of dormancy, of course, and then what things would be like for the corn and soybean crops. So begin in The United States.
Drew Lerner: 18:55Yeah. For a hard red winter wheat country, this past weekend, you may recall there was widespread rain that occurred in Kansas and Central Oklahoma. Very, very important event for Central Oklahoma. It was the one place that was missed by rain earlier in September, And so they finally got a decent drink of water and the wheat emergence and establishment is going be much improved now in that area. For Kansas, they did really well in September.
Drew Lerner: 19:22They took a little break and they got a little more rain and it's got a break and now they got some more. So the crop in Kansas is looking pretty good. Now some of the High Plains region, they always need some rain. So areas from the Texas Panhandle Northward into Far Western Kansas and Colorado, those areas probably going to need another drink of water or two. And they are going to be a part of this drier bias that I talked about for the month of November.
Drew Lerner: 19:46So we'll keep an eye on that. But for right now, I'd say most of that hard red winter wheat area is in pretty good shape with a pretty good production potential. But remember La Nina is breathing down our necks and it does tend to dry out that area. So we'll keep an eye on them over the winter. In Argentina, the situation there has been really good this year.
Drew Lerner: 20:10They've had good alternating periods of rain and sunshine. The biggest threat that they had was just these last two mornings where there was frost and freezes that occurred in Argentina's South in Buenos Aires and La Pampa. And we were concerned that we were going to freeze up the wheat crop out was reproducing and filling. It turned out that it was just light freezes. They didn't go below 32 degrees at official reported locations, but there were many areas that did get to that level.
Drew Lerner: 20:38So maybe a little bit of impact, but not much. I think the Argentina crop is going to be pretty big in general.
Todd Gleason: 20:44And then for the corn and soybean crops?
Drew Lerner: 20:46Yeah. While we're in Argentina, you know, is the month they plant their soybeans and, it looks like they're going get off to a good start. I mentioned a little while ago about La Nina starting to have influence on the world and, for Argentina, that's going to dry things out a little bit in the Eastern part of the country, along with Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and Southern Paraguay. So we're looking for that as we go forward through the month of November. More importantly than that at the moment is this rainy mint coming up for Brazil this weekend.
Drew Lerner: 21:20You know, everyone's looking at Brazil's planting progress and saying, Oh, it's, you know, it's great year. I think in reality, it's good in the South, but the Center West crop areas, Mato Grosso and De Goias, they have not done very well. And I would be shocked to hear that the crops are in extremely good shape. The rains just have been too erratic, too light and too infrequent. And I think that the, well, the latest soil assessment we did yesterday shows very short top and subsoil for all of the Center West areas.
Drew Lerner: 21:51Now it wasn't that dry all along, but they are very dry right now. And this rain event coming up here this weekend into next week is critically important. I do see high pressure coming back next week, which will suppress some rain. So keep an eye on them. It's not as good as what some folks thinks it is, but it's not a disaster, and they could improve greatly if they got a good solid drink of water.
Todd Gleason: 22:14Thank you much, and we will talk with you again next week.
Drew Lerner: 22:17Alright. Take care.
Todd Gleason: 22:18You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen. And there you'll find daily articles from the PharmDoc team, that's the agricultural economist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the U of I, with the crop scientists and the animal scientists and a calendar of events that'll become more important as we move into the winter meeting season.
Todd Gleason: 22:52Right now, if you scroll forward or look into the month of December, you most assuredly will find the Illinois Farm Economic Summit along with the Farm Assets Conference and of course a way to register for both there at wilag.org. I'm Todd Gleason.