Sep 09 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lende de Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the September 2025. It's the fall fun drive. I encourage you to pick up the phone right now and dial (217) 244-9455. That's 217244 big will or maybe it'll be easier and certainly should be to go to willgive.org willag.0rg we're looking to raise a $100,000 in four days you know that we've gone through a recession. That's a million and a half dollars this year and next year, about 20% of our budget each year.

Todd Gleason: 00:39

And we're hoping that you will step up to the plate. You know, I think this is an important program to you so you can listen to folks like Naomi Bloom who'll be coming up. She's with totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Today, we'll hear something from the Farm Progress Show that I recorded with Brian Duncan. He's the president of that organization, and Dundee will be here too to talk about the weather.

Todd Gleason: 01:03

Most of those, two of them at least, are regulars on our programming along with about 18 others that you can hear each and every week if this makes a big difference for you. I hope you will step up to the plate right now. Don't wait. Do it today. It's really important.

Todd Gleason: 01:20

I always start you at about the $120 level. I'd actually like you to double that today. Maybe go $2.40 or $3.20 or something larger if you can. It's important. It really is because we are under the gun here.

Todd Gleason: 01:36

I know you are. We haven't asked you to go further than the $1.20 in the last four or five years when things were really great. And now we're both under the gun, so I'm hopeful that this programming will be really important to you, and you will dial that number now to +1 72449455 or make your pledge for our fall pledge period the fall fund drive at willgive.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Naomi Bloem from total farm marketing dot com that's in West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us to take a look at the marketplace.

Todd Gleason: 02:17

Prior to this Friday's USDA report crop production due out along with the world agricultural supply and demand estimates. Thanks for being with us today, Naomi. I, appreciate that a lot.

Naomi Blohm: 02:29

Yeah. Thank you for having me.

Todd Gleason: 02:30

Let's begin, with today's trade. It was quiet. I suppose that's expected, throughout this week coming up to the first objective yield survey, for the crop production report.

Naomi Blohm: 02:42

Yes. That's exactly what's been going on. News will be pretty quiet this week until Friday. Pre report estimates finally coming out today for the grain markets where corn yield for Friday's report expected to come in at an average number of one eighty six point one with a range of one eighty two seven to one eighty nine. And, of course, that would be lower than the August number of one eighty eight point eight.

Naomi Blohm: 03:05

And on the soybean side, they're looking for the average yield number to come in at 53.3, down from 53.6 in August. The question, though, will be how much of that is already priced into the market with a rally that we've had since the August report when traders already kind of assumed we weren't gonna reach those record amounts with some of the pollination issues that we had been seeing and hearing about, along with some of the southern rust issues on corn and sudden death in soybeans. So it'll be very interesting to see how trade responds to the numbers released Friday. Will they say some of it's priced in, or will the USDA surprise us and give us, you know, something extra friendly for a yield number, or will they kinda do their normal thing where they don't actually make a lot of big adjustments in September? So we're all waiting to see, and I think the market is just poised at a price point where it's ready to pounce either higher or slide lower just depending on what the report has to say.

Todd Gleason: 04:05

That could be on the crop reduction numbers. We'll know those at 11:00 central time on Friday when the figures are released. You can see them on our website at willag.org shortly after that or certainly up on x about the time that they come out. I'm wondering, though, whether you were thinking that the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate, which will give the supply and demand tables for this year's corn and soybean crops might reflect something, more basic that could change the marketplace as it relates to the export markets and total consumption. What do you suppose?

Naomi Blohm: 04:43

So that would be the other point to be watching for consideration, especially on the soybean side. Of course, China's still not showing up on the export sales or the weekly export sales. So will we see the USDA lower demand for exports for soybeans? And then we'll see if they do any, massages of demand for corn or small tweaks just because they did such a big demand increase on the August report. Ultimately, it'll come down to where US ending stocks are for corn.

Naomi Blohm: 05:14

Will they stay north of 2,000,000,000 bushels, or will they be adjusted lower? So lots of things to be monitoring there. And then, of course, also on the global side, we're still looking at global, record amounts of soybean ending stocks, but on the corn side of things, ending stocks for corn on a global perspective have been sliding lower. So there could be a lot at stake on the corn side depending on where USDA puts US numbers and then how that fits into the global sheet. And then, to your point, Todd, yeah, we have to watch the demand categories along with the yield numbers and production numbers.

Todd Gleason: 05:53

How should producers have themselves positioned, going into this particular, crop reduction report. I'm wondering whether because they have been so far behind in their marketing if they need to make catch up sales at these low levels, prior to hitting that report or whether it's worth just waiting it through.

Naomi Blohm: 06:14

Well, I would almost say, if if you were at all concerned about prices really falling apart lower, you could take a look at buying a real short term like November corn put. It's good for forty four days. You can get some pretty cheap price protection anywhere from 5 to 10¢ if you felt that that was appropriate for you. But to your point, there are so many producers who are on price that if we can see the market hold firm here or get some sort of a rally, it would just be welcome for producers to be able to continue to claw away at higher sales as we head towards harvest. I do keep an eye on the funds who have been exiting short positions.

Naomi Blohm: 06:57

So that tells me that they too kind of question where the yield might be here when it all is said and done, that they're more content to maybe kind of shift their position to the sidelines than stay with that heavy, short, or mostly bearish perspective. So, again, if you're looking for short term protection, use a November put option, but otherwise, this might be a situation where we have a slow grind rally higher, similar to how we had the last year. But again, it just comes down to Friday's report.

Todd Gleason: 07:28

You did tell us about the funds last week, you know, lightening their short positions. I take it they followed through, through the rest of this week too.

Naomi Blohm: 07:36

Yeah. So last week, they, had reduced their short positions by about 19,000 contracts overall officially. Yesterday, even, they exited another 3,500 contracts. So, they're just really slowly stepping to the sidelines, awaiting to see where we have our yield numbers come in, what the combines ultimately say in early October. That'll be a better estimate.

Naomi Blohm: 08:05

But I think also the funds are keeping an eye on what the Fed is going to be doing with interest rates. If interest rates start to work lower, then maybe some of the money that had been sitting in money markets, parked money, might be kinda coming back into commodities. So I'm kinda curious if we start to see some money flow, in the months ahead depending on what the Fed does with, again, those interest rate numbers.

Todd Gleason: 08:28

Thank you much, Naomi. Naomi Bloom is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Don't forget we're in the middle of our fall fund drive hoping to raise a $100,000 by the time we get to Friday. You can help us out right now. I have always started around the $120 level.

Todd Gleason: 08:44

Less is fine. More is great. Right? Frankly, we are under rescission, so we're about $1,500,000 or 20% of our budget short for the fiscal year we are in right now. It would be great if you can help us out.

Todd Gleason: 08:56

Do that at (217) 244-9455 or go to willgive.0rg. Good morning, and welcome again to the University of Illinois tent on stage. We're now joined by Brian Duncan, the president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. Thank you for coming to the U of I tent. I really appreciate that, and we appreciate all the work that you do with Illinois Farm Bureau.

Brian Duncan: 09:22

Well, thank you, Todd. Thank you for having me. It's certainly I just want you to know how much Illinois Farm Bureau appreciates the partnerships we have with the University of Illinois, with our other ag schools in the state, but particularly how closely we're working together with the U of I these days is very meaningful, for our members. You know,

Todd Gleason: 09:42

the College of ACES tries really hard. I work with the farm doc team, the crop scientist each and every day, the animal scientist as well. These are things that you'll want to talk about as they're related to agriculture. Let's start with the state of the ag economy. Prices have been low depending on which sector you're in.

Todd Gleason: 10:01

Probably three of the four things that I'm thinking about are not very well priced today. There's one, beef cattle, that's not too bad. We can talk about them in just a second. But the ag sector as a whole in the state, how do you see it?

Brian Duncan: 10:15

Well, it's it's not what we wish it was. How's that? And I think all you've gotta do is look at some of the material PharmDoc has been putting out. I mean, get your morning updates, and, I keep waiting for one that has good news. But, we continue to see decline in in in commodity prices.

Brian Duncan: 10:34

Farm income is projected to be a little higher because of government aid that came out the first of the year. We know farmers have worked very hard to develop markets and would much rather take our dollars from the marketplace than from the mailbox. But certainly, this is a challenging time both on what we're selling the value of because we are price takers. And then the inputs that we're looking at, especially as we look ahead to 2026, the input costs are higher than they were for this crop and, the prices projected for 2026 are lower. So, I mean, I think FarmDoc is projecting Illinois agriculture to be significantly upside down, at least for crop agriculture next year.

Brian Duncan: 11:18

About $70

Todd Gleason: 11:20

or more loss on corn, maybe a few dollars, make profit in beans.

Brian Duncan: 11:25

And I think, you know, it is important to note that no two farmers have the same economic reality. You know, some are on legacy farms that that, you know, maybe have not brought kids back into the operation, don't have a lot of debt. They're they're in a better condition than some of us that have. I've got three of my four children part of the farm and have all come back in the last five to seven years. And so making space for the next generation and some of the debt that the next generation has incurred has me very concerned because they don't have the equity to weather the storm.

Todd Gleason: 12:04

Yeah. Those numbers that we mentioned were on highly productive Central Illinois farms cash rented. You can find them all on the Farm Doc web site. They've been recently reported by Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitke. Look it up.

Todd Gleason: 12:18

Farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. Tariffs and trade are always something that Farm Bureau and all commodity groups look forward to or those organizations like yours, Grassroots, that represent farmers. How concerned might you be about trade and tariffs?

Brian Duncan: 12:35

Well, obviously, we're very concerned. I mean, the word I use to describe the trade outlook right now is cloudy. How's that? And we're looking for a parting of the clouds, with we we have had frameworks announced. We've had some initial agreements announced, but we're looking for some very specific volumes of agricultural products and maybe corn soybeans, maybe ethanol, distillers, anything that we can show that the cloudiness has resulted in an improvement in volumes moving to market over markets overseas.

Brian Duncan: 13:14

And so we await that. And and I think it's also, Todd, important to remember how much skin in the game production agriculture has in these markets through the checkoff programs. We have invested a lot of our own dollars as producers to develop these markets, and we certainly want to see them go forward, get bigger, not go backward and get smaller.

Todd Gleason: 13:42

Volumes is an interesting term in this case. Is that just a short term gain, or is there a way to maximize that over the long run? Because those would feel like depending on how they're written that they might end fairly quickly. I think we're looking for long term stability for agriculture. And I think I think if we if we say we're here and we're going to there, I think that there for agriculture is very bright.

Todd Gleason: 14:10

I think new technologies, for, next generation biofuels, I think new technology, on on the biological side, on

Brian Duncan: 14:19

the regenerative ag side to lower cost, I think that's there and the future is bright, but we've got to get from here to there. And I want to keep my members on the farm from here to there. And so right now we are looking for any wins that we can get. And, certainly, a long term stable win would be better than one announcement of a flash sale, but anything that could help move the psychology of the market, I think, would be beneficial. But again, as an organization, as Farm Bureau, so that's who I'm speaking for now, our policy, we have been long term supporters of a rules based approach to trade, multilateral agreements that are long term agreements that have provisions in them to correct any, let's say, questionable practices, rules based trade.

Brian Duncan: 15:21

So that has been what we've supported. Now is that the future of trade? Right now, I it seems uncertain. And so that's why I say we're cloudy, but we're looking for wins and for increased volumes.

Todd Gleason: 15:34

You mentioned Farmfield and Mailbox both. I'm wondering if you can back up just a little bit to the earlier part of the summer when, Washington DC passed some legislation that does have an impact Yep. On farmers. What are the good things in that from the Farm Bureau's perspective?

Brian Duncan: 15:51

Well, deputy secretary Vaden actually rehosted him here yesterday at a round table and we talked to him. So there's multiple provisions in there that impact agriculture. So let's talk about the wins. Let's talk about the tax provisions that we're very grateful for, especially the certainty around estate tax and and and how that can be devastating. The the estate tax, the federal estate tax can be devastating, to passing the farm to the next generation.

Brian Duncan: 16:18

We, as Illinois Farm Bureau, prioritized significantly reducing the Illinois estate tax, that continues to be a priority for us. So there's wins there. There were increases in reference prices, improvements to the ARC and PLC programs, the farm programs that farmers participate in that really haven't paid out much of anything, at least here in the Midwest over the last several years. If commodity prices remain where they're at, it looks like there could be a payout of a certain number of dollars per acre, but they won't come till September '26. And so that was part of the discussion that we've had with secretary that we had with assistant deputy secretary Vaden yesterday.

Brian Duncan: 17:01

Is there a way that we can accelerate those payments to improve cash flow? What can we do, to get farmers into the next crop year?

Todd Gleason: 17:10

That would be part of the ARC or PLC program. Farmers, by the way, are enrolled in both. So whichever pays

Brian Duncan: 17:16

Yep.

Todd Gleason: 17:17

They they will manage to, recoup those dollars from that safety net program. What did he say about being able to pull them forward? That feels like a a hard push,

Brian Duncan: 17:28

but possible? Well, when I was when I was a much younger farmer and farm programs passed, that has happened. He said he would look into it. He's not sure if that would take an act of congress or if the secretary herself would have the ability to do that. And then we also brought up the the last during the last Trump administration, and the secretary's almost has has promised already that farmers are adversely impacted by these trade policies, that there would be another round of market facilitation payments.

Brian Duncan: 18:03

And so we talked to the deputy secretary about how to make that a reality, take these tariff dollars that we're gathering, refund the CCC. And and, again, it's not something we we want to see. We want to see vibrant, robust markets, but we know we know, Todd, that agriculture is the first victim of counter of of retaliation and that our markets are definitely gonna be impacted if the if these if this continues. So we're looking to pull any lever we can pull. And we're also talking about market based levers.

Brian Duncan: 18:39

We said, hey. Year round e 15. That's a win right now. Let's do that. Let's talk about, researching and advancing the next generation of biofuels.

Brian Duncan: 18:50

That's a win. You know, USDA says we've got a 16,700,000,000 corn crop coming with north of a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout. We've either gotta export that product. We've gotta grind it for for hog for hog and livestock feed, or we've gotta crush it for ethanol. And and any levers we can pull there, we're looking to pull.

Todd Gleason: 19:10

Was he open to an MFP or a market facilitation type payment that had been made in the last Trump administration? It seems like this must be a maybe a much harder ask given the number of industries that are impacted by tariffs. Absolutely.

Brian Duncan: 19:28

He let's just say he did not shut down the conversation. And he mentioned the CCC, right now only has, like, 4,000,000,000 in it, so there's not enough money there to do a market facilitation payment, but I believe he says that it's automatically refunded in November, I think. He said there's a there's a day that it's automatically refunded. And we talked about, you know, can we move that date up? What does this look like?

Brian Duncan: 19:53

These were all things we were presenting to secretary Vaden, under deputy secretary Vaden to take back to Washington DC. But he has heard loud and clear as well as all the representatives I visited with several members of the congressional delegation yesterday. They've heard that farmers are very concerned about about the state of the economy.

Todd Gleason: 20:14

Yeah. And the CC funds, CCC funds, if I remember correctly, would be available at the discretion.

Brian Duncan: 20:19

As a discretion. Secretary of Agriculture. Fundings that the secretary can use. Yes.

Todd Gleason: 20:24

Okay. One final topic. The livestock sector in the state of Illinois. You have both a few beef cattle. And or a pork producer in the state.

Todd Gleason: 20:33

What's your assessment?

Brian Duncan: 20:34

So the hog industry, the independent pork producers, the pork industry in general has had a bad run, a multiyear run of losses. We are now profitable. Part of that comes at the expense of the grain producer. You know, three eighty corn feeds feeds better than $6 corn. But we are profitable, but there is a big hole of equity loss that the hog producer is working on backfilling right now.

Brian Duncan: 21:03

The cattle, the the cattle feeder, the beef industry, congratulations to them. They have been on a run, and I'm so happy for them because they went through a significant downturn 2015, 2020. They they went through a lot of problems, and that's resulted in, I think, the lowest beef cow herd since 1973, I think, the static, the statistic. So that results in higher prices. And they've got a product where the demand seems pretty inelastic, but it is a very risky time right now for cattle feeders when you look at the price of replacement animals going into the lots.

Brian Duncan: 21:43

I believe I heard out in Oklahoma City some seven weight feeder cattle brought north of $4 a pound. That's a lot of money. But just also to put in mind, one right now, one, market ready steer is worth more than a semi load of corn. I don't know if I've ever been able to say that in my farming career before.

Todd Gleason: 22:03

Will that push beef producers, particularly in the southern part of the state where they normally have been located in the last several decades, to come back into production? Because as they have retired, those have not been picked up. They have simply gone away, and the number of producers that, your organization and the college is servicing is down dramatically. Well, here's the question.

Brian Duncan: 22:27

Are you gonna are you gonna send that $4,000 heifer to town or are you gonna say keeper and breeder? You know, I mean, this is this is the reality that the economic decisions that certainly the barrier to entry right now for anybody as a price of heifers is significant. And those that have cow calford, yes, think they are moving and replacing as needed. But the idea of expanding, again, that's one less animal, that's one less heifer to go to market at these prices. And so I think there's a lot of head scratching going on with the with the cattle industry.

Brian Duncan: 23:07

But expansion in in beef, it takes time. It's it's not a quick turnaround. You know, it's not chickens you lay and you change your egg sets and you can have more more more poultry of meat in six months. This is this is a long term, a long pull, and the cattle guys that I'm talking to are just in the moment right now and and very grateful.

Todd Gleason: 23:33

President Duncan, thank you very much for taking time with me today.

Brian Duncan: 23:36

Thank you, Todd. Really appreciate it. Anytime.

Todd Gleason: 23:38

Brian Duncan is the president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Let's check-in on the weather forecast now with Don Day. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don.

Todd Gleason: 24:03

Thanks for being with us again.

Don Day: 24:05

Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: 24:06

Now tell me about the weather forecast. Over the next week, farmers will begin harvesting in parts of the Midwest.

Don Day: 24:11

Well, the first thing to highlight is is that after what has been two weeks of well below average temperatures over a lot of the nation's midsection, we are gonna be a little bit warmer. We're gonna see some high pressure build in, and we're gonna see this end of the string of Canadian cold fronts that have been moving across the Central US and get more into a westerly flow, which means near to slightly above average temperatures. And we're gonna have a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity over the next week. I don't see it getting into the heart of the Corn Belt, at least anything heavy. We'll have a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity along and just north and south of Interstate 80 across Illinois into Iowa into Eastern Nebraska.

Don Day: 24:57

Where we do see it getting wet, is in the Dakotas. The Dakotas, upper parts of Minnesota, back westward into Kansas. That's where the heavier shower and thunderstorm activity will be, generally lighter elsewhere.

Todd Gleason: 25:10

In my part of the world and going to the East, South Of Interstate 80, I would think that the westerlies, if they do not carry very much precipitation with them, might be of concern, particularly if they're dry and it's a bit windy over the next week. That could cause some field fires or help to spark some off. Should I be concerned?

Don Day: 25:33

Well, I would say from what we're seeing with with the service wind forecast as well as the upper level wind pattern, we don't have anything other than near those showers that is gonna bring too much in the way of any significant winds.

Todd Gleason: 25:46

That is good news. Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Don Day: 25:49

See you then.

Todd Gleason: 25:50

Indeed. We will. That's Don Day. He's with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world, which means I need to have you call right now.

Todd Gleason: 26:03

I hope you've done so already, but now's a good time too at (217) 244-9455. More importantly, will give .0rg. That's quick and simple and easy. Wil l give.0rg to make that donation in support of agricultural programming from the University of Illinois. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason.