- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- Chip Nellinger, BlueReef.Ag
- Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com
This is the July 3 edition of Commodity Week. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Well, to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Arlen Suderman.
Todd Gleason: 00:18He's at Stonax out of Kansas City. We're joined by Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agrimarketing in Morton, Illinois. And Matt Bennett is here agmarket dot net. He's in Windsor, IL. Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason: 00:32It's public radio for the farming world online on demand. Anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org willag.org or search us out in your favorite podcast applications or if you happen to be an NPR listener you can search it out in the NPR list right there in the NPR app. Let's get a list of items speaking to that of things that we should talk about today. Arlen Suderman, I think I'll start with you. What's on your mind?
Arlan Suderman: 01:01Well, as we entered the holiday weekend, we had a couple of issues of uncertainty starting to approach clarification. One was the tax bill, of course, but I think tariffs are probably the most interesting thing going forward. It could have implications for agriculture and the agreement we got with Vietnam, I think, provides some encouragement along that line of what we may see more of in the days ahead.
Todd Gleason: 01:28Matt Bennett from agmarket.net on your list.
Matt Bennett: 01:31Yeah. I mean, clearly, it's, been a pretty rough go. Up until the last couple days, US market didn't have any pulse whatsoever. So, obviously, what Arlen was talking about, I think, maybe propped us up a little bit, you know, some whispers of what might happen out in Des Moines here this evening. I'm talking Thursday, of course, with president Trump visiting out there.
Matt Bennett: 01:52I think there's plenty to discuss. Of course, there's a lot of, there's not a whole lot of certainty there, but, you know, whenever you factor weather and everything else in, be interested to see what the other guys think as well about what kind of legs this thing may have. I think it might be a very interesting trade Sunday night, of course, depending on forecast.
Todd Gleason: 02:11And Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Agri Marketing on your list.
Chip Nellinger: 02:14Yeah. Not a lot to add. I think that, covers a lot of ground right there. President Trump's meeting tonight and what he says, just a massive amount of optimism in the market that he's gonna announce some, you know, massive, bazooka of, good news for the ag markets, maybe even a Chinese trade agreement type statement. I'm not sure I buy that, but there's sure some optimism in the market about that.
Chip Nellinger: 02:38And obviously, the weather got a lot of rain digested. There's a lot in the forecast. Will it confirm and fall where it's projected? And then what is the extended weather model look like Sunday night and Monday could really have a big bearing on, you know, what direction we take the next couple of weeks?
Todd Gleason: 02:56Well, let's start with, something that we don't know and pretend that we do from both sides. So the president goes, to Iowa. He makes an announcement about trade, but it is one of those announcements that says we have a framework to agree on the implementation of something we were thinking about. What happens in that case, Chip Nellinger?
Chip Nellinger: 03:21Well, I think that given some of the optimism and the rally that we had going into this long weekend, unless there are some specifics in actual bushel amounts or dollar amounts that someone's gonna take of US agricultural products, I think it leaves the door open for quite a bit of disappointment in the market's mind. Just, you know, it's just kind of amazing to me and there hasn't been an official statement, there hasn't been anything to to that I've seen to lead people to believe this, but there's just all this bubbling optimism in the market that there's gonna be some massive announcement. So I think unless it's specific big numbers, you might be a little bit disappointed to the market. But I would say that in this in this, I guess, generation of the the administration, the second Trump two point o here, a lot of times where there's smoke, there's fire when you get some of these rumors and and markets, not just ag markets but outside markets start moving. There's reason for that ultimately.
Chip Nellinger: 04:23So, we'll see. Sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire but I I think it's a real stretch right now to get super optimistic about, some massive announcement. I hope I'm wrong. I hope we get it tonight, but, I think it could leave the market a little disappointed.
Todd Gleason: 04:37Arlen Suderman, what have you heard about the potential of the announcement? This was a late breaking sort of thing. I believe that he would be in Des Moines. The president does like to travel to places where he is very well liked, and Des Moines carried him a couple of times. Well, not Des Moines itself, but certainly Iowa Iowa worked to carry him.
Todd Gleason: 05:00Do you think there'll be an announcement worth the the trip to that state?
Arlan Suderman: 05:06Well, I think the fact that he this kind of became a last minute announcement that he was going to Iowa and became public last minute, I think, adds a little bit more to the intrigue because why go there right ahead of the fourth of July Independence Day holiday and unless you specifically have something related to agriculture that you want to announce. So that's what created all the intrigue. I agree with what Chip said, though, that unless it's a commitment on a large volume, something specific, the markets are quickly going to go back to trading weather. It's that time of year when our focus is supply. We have to have commitments on demand side to counter that and that optimism.
Arlan Suderman: 05:52That certainly is a possibility going forward, but you have to have some pretty strong news right off the bat in order to be able to counter what seasonally is the biggest driver in the marketplace.
Todd Gleason: 06:05Okay, Matt. I need to put some numbers to this, and I'm going to ask you to do that. So let's say that there are numbers. It is a Chinese trade agreement, and their actual buying numbers. What would be a big number that would or what would be a number that would make the market set up on Monday or Sunday evening as this case will be, and actually trade in a bullish tone, and what would be a number that they wouldn't care about?
Matt Bennett: 06:35That's a good question, Todd. I think when you look back at the phase one trade agreement, I mean, obviously, you can look at that with a lot of different angles. But, clearly, they bought a lot of corn 2020 on the month of August. They step in and buy massive amounts of corn. I think if you come in here and you say, hey.
Matt Bennett: 06:53We're going to essentially enforce the trade agreement that we originally came to, you know, and and you could put some tonnages with it. I mean, I'm assuming anything that would be, oh, I don't know. Maybe the size of the of the increase in the Brazilian crop or better, you know, 10, 15,000,000 tons, that would certainly be viewed by the trade as a as a fantastic type of number. I mean, I think we're asking for a lot to to get to something like that. I mean, I've been thinking, you know, it could be something along that line.
Matt Bennett: 07:29It might be fifteen year round, which has kind of been clearly something everyone's talked about. But by all means, I don't think he's going out there, you know, just to shake hands. I mean, I'm along with kinda what Arlen was saying. I do think the timing of it is very interesting, and I think he wants to make a big splash. And so I've gotta think that there's something with some teeth that he's actually going to announce.
Matt Bennett: 07:53But, as far as what would be a disappointing, number or scenario, I would say, hey. We've got this beautiful, trade agreement with, you know, with China, and, you know, they're they've they've promised to do something, you know, sub 10,000,000 tons. Anything would be fantastic. Don't get me wrong. But I think if the numbers are a little bit on the lower side or if there's any sort of way to interpret it, you know, as not having teeth in it, you know, where he doesn't come up with specific totals, I think that the trade's gonna be pretty disappointing.
Todd Gleason: 08:23Okay, Arlen. So there are a couple of things I want you to walk me through. So if he makes an e fifteen year round announcement, that seems disappointing to me. I want to know what you think about that. If he were to announce that phase one was going to be implemented in full, that's 25% left to buy that they didn't purchase.
Todd Gleason: 08:43That's fine, but that doesn't seem like a big deal either. What what are you considering?
Arlan Suderman: 08:49Well, I'd start by approaching it from the opposite standpoint of they have zero new crop soybeans to their name right now. And typically, they start ramping up aggressively in the month of July for fourth quarter delivery. They've been redoing. We're right now basically on pace with where we were a year ago when they were very slow to start on new crop contracts or new crop purchases for total new crop soybean sales. So we need something to exceed that.
Arlan Suderman: 09:20With what we see in the tax bill in the way of domestic demand, the export number doesn't have to be as big, but we can't have China totally gone. So in my opinion, they only got about 22,500,000 metric tons of soybeans from us this last year. If we had some guarantees that they would match the 22,500,000 metric tons, which is the lowest we've been since the African swine fever outbreak, which also coincided with the last trade war we had with them. If we could match that 22,500,000 metric tons with the increased domestic demand we anticipate, barring what we find out with small refinery exemptions, then I think that would be very bullish for demand for soybeans, and we better not have any weather hiccups at all in August.
Todd Gleason: 10:14So you're talking about s the renewable volume obligations or something within the tax bill?
Arlan Suderman: 10:19Well, I'm I'm talking about the tax bill has the 45Z in it, and it's very good, for biofuels. And so what was in the bill for the 45Z is very supportive of domestic demand without knowing yet what the SREs are gonna be, the small refinery exemptions. Assuming that they're not damaging, that part's gonna be good. So with good, strong domestic demand, just a guarantee of China buying what they bought this past year, I think, would be very good for demand. I'm still not optimistic that we're gonna get that, but I'm certainly hopeful that we could.
Todd Gleason: 10:59I I may did make note, and I haven't seen what Scott Irwin has pinned on Twitter or other places still. Much of this he usually puts into other social media and sometimes onto Farm Block, but it's not there as well, about the 45 z. However, he thought that that would be good for ethanol. Did not mention so much how it might play out for soybeans, soy diesel in particular I would think, biofuels. What are you hearing on that front, Arlen?
Todd Gleason: 11:34What what kind of push might there be?
Arlan Suderman: 11:36Well, I think, first of all, we're seeing that the foreign feedstocks pretty much are locked out except for what comes from North America, from our USMCA partners. So that shuts out used cooking oil as the expectation. So that's a big positive. The indirect land use penalty has been dropped, so we no longer deal with that. That should be favorable as well.
Arlan Suderman: 12:07I think overall, when we look at the RVO combined with the fact that we favor feedstocks from North America combined with the funding mechanism that's in this tax bill. I think it's strong demand for US soy oil and canola oil. And I think it's gonna have our crushers working near capacity assuming we don't get all this undermined with big SREs.
Todd Gleason: 12:39We will find out whether those small refinery exemptions go into place, And the the thought on that process is that from the Trump administration is that even if they go into place, they'll force other refineries to pick them up. Do you not think that'll happen?
Arlan Suderman: 12:56Oh, we hope so. That's a rumor we're hearing. But until we actually see something in writing, we don't know. And so the industry is generally expecting something positive. When you have president Trump's telling farmers, plant, plant, plant because get ready for strong domestic demand.
Arlan Suderman: 13:15Where else could that be? But biofuels, where he could have that impact on demand. And so far, everything that we have seen from the EPA as well as from Congress that he advocated for has been positive for biofuels. So in the middle of the tariff war, he's been trying to support agriculture via biofuels. Now we have yet to see that one missing piece.
Arlan Suderman: 13:40The 45 z was one piece. The RVO was one piece. The SREs are the final piece that we simply need to see it in writing.
Todd Gleason: 13:48Alright. Chip Nellinger, let's turn your attention more directly to the corn and the soybean market. You said, before we came on the air that you, in the Peoria Morton area were running a little shy of rainfall. I take it the crops actually still look really pretty good in your area, though.
Chip Nellinger: 14:06Crops look really good, Todd, and in spite of some of that heat we had. If you look at the rainfall here in the last couple, two, even three weeks, really about, there's kind of a circle in the middle of the entire Midwest that covers, maybe not every area, but, the bulk of the Northern half maybe, you know, four fifths of, I shouldn't say, three fifths of, of Northern Illinois. We're dry, our lawns are starting to dry out a little bit, not much mowing is needed. We need a rain in here, but to your point, it's not showing up with much stress yet. I think, know, just looking at our local forecast, supposed to be up, you know, in the low to mid nineties here by the weekend again.
Chip Nellinger: 14:54And, if we don't get much rain, I think maybe then it does start an argument that we're, you know, at least stressing the crop. But, the problem that the market sees is, you look at the ten day you know, weather maps and there is a lot of rain out there that most of the corn Belt is supposed to get. So, I I I think earlier in the week, we kinda baked that into prices when we were on the lows and then, you know, kinda had a good old fashioned short covering rally off of everything that we've said so far, you know, the the the Trump you know, engagement tonight, the you know, the the good demand on the you know, biodiesel side, soil, put a nice rally in this week even though it's back off a little bit today. So, weather wise, we're dry, we need rain. I think you know, psychologically, this long Fourth of July weekend is is really front and center in most people's minds if you're a trader of ag products because you've seen big swings historically from really good weather to poor weather and then vice versa from really hot, dry weather And then over the fourth of July weekend, the the weather turns and you get, cooler temps and and better rainfall.
Chip Nellinger: 16:05So that's front and center in everyone's mind on this long weekend is, are we gonna have some major change, in the forecast? Or are these rains gonna come through as advertised on the, you know, noon forecasts?
Todd Gleason: 16:18Yeah. So, Matt Bennett, if you could think through the last two and a half weeks where we dropped precipitously, made new contract lows for both corn nearby contract and the December futures. And then we rallied back with them fairly sharply just one day this week, but continued that on Thursday with a smaller rally. Not still in the grand scheme of a pretty good comeback after what was really a tough two week period. How do things play out on Monday?
Todd Gleason: 16:57And I know it depends a lot on what the president says on Thursday evening. But if you well, the question is, how how how would you expect things to play out without some announcements?
Matt Bennett: 17:12Well, without announcements, I mean, clearly, it's going to depend on the weather. Whenever you look at how this market traded on Friday, you know, December corn, of course, it, it rallied up there and kinda pushed on that, fifty day moving average and then settled back below it. But even settling back below it, we basically settled into that range that we've been trading over the last, month and a half to two months. And so, you know, is that a range that we can hold, or are we gonna go back down and test the lows? And that's all gonna be dependent upon mother nature, in my opinion.
Matt Bennett: 17:43I think with an announcement, you know, then you start hunting down moving averages. If you go ahead and move through that fifty days, you'd go up to that, you know, the 200 up there around $4.48 and then right under $4.50. You know, you've got the 100 day. And so, you know, if you get an announcement along with the weather situation, I think you push back over four fifty fairly easily, but that's considering both things happen. And so as Chip said, a lot of times, this July 4 seems to be kind of a swing, you know, as far as weather's concerned.
Matt Bennett: 18:15I know talking to some of the weather guys we talked to, a couple of them have mentioned here lately that it's it's hard to hold a weather pattern much longer than eight weeks at a time. And and, clearly, a fair amount, especially west of us and north, those guys have been fairly wet for some time in here. You know? Is that gonna change around? I don't know.
Matt Bennett: 18:34And so, yeah, the noon maps looked good. I mean, I hope the noon maps come to pass for us in our part of the world because we're kinda like, Chip, we've got pretty good looking crops here. But I'll tell you what, we've been shortchanged on rainfall over the last two to three weeks in that hot weather last week, you know, it it definitely sapped a lot of moisture out of the ground. Some of this came through looking pretty good, with that being considered, but we are also right around the corner from pollination. So we can't forget that if we do get a weather forecast, Todd, that's ominous, we have to understand that a lot of corn's already tasseled.
Matt Bennett: 19:07The April corn's tasseled in this part of the world, and a lot of it in Iowa's tasseling as well. And so pollination is upon us. So, the last thing you wanna have is a hot dry forecast, going into that.
Todd Gleason: 19:18Arlen, given Stonex's global footprint, I wanna know how you see the marketplace moving grain across the planet, particularly that, that's coming out of Brazil. Soybeans at the moment, corn eventually, will it be delayed, and how much of an issue is that large safrinha crop that they have coming on?
Arlan Suderman: 19:43Yeah. The Brazil crop is coming on a little bit more delayed because the planting was delayed and development delayed and and part of that is because they didn't have the heat units that they could have had as well once it was planted, but the yields are coming off very well. And our last customer survey puts total corn production over 134,000,000 metric tons, not a record yet. But certainly a bin buster would be considered that. And so they're gonna have a lot of exportable supply.
Arlan Suderman: 20:15They are increasing corn for ethanol this coming year, probably by about 5,000,000 metric tons to offset some of those exports. But with the size of this crop, I think we're still gonna see some growth in exports overall, particularly when you add it to the fact that Argentina's corn crop, which is nearly two thirds harvested now, looks to be a good crop as well, not a bin buster, but a good crop, a good normal crop, I would say. And so the exportable supplies are going to be there. And so I think without a trade agreement with China to guarantee some corn purchases of size, it makes it difficult to hit USDA's export target. And that's even considering that Mexico imports more corn because, frankly, they're having to feed more cattle down there rather than send a feeder cattle north.
Arlan Suderman: 21:11And so we're shipping corn down to feed their feeder cattle, even with the border open now, it's gonna be slow going, moving those cattle across the border. So a lot of them are gonna be fed down there and then they'll ship the meat up here. So I do think we'll see a good feed number and export, excuse me, a lower feed number here in The United States as a result than what USD currently has a better export number. But we've got to have that business from China and then hoping that China getting it from us doesn't displace business they would have done from Brazil. That simply goes to another one of our customers.
Arlan Suderman: 21:45And this fourth of July holiday weekend, we simpily got to be cautious because it's known for its being pivotal. Coming back from the holiday, if the forecasters or if the traders look at that fifteen day outlook, which peers through pollination and they see pleasant weather. They like to short the corn market if they, unless there's some other reason not to. And if it shows hot and dry, they like to buy it. And a lot of times that starts happening on Sunday night before the farmer has a chance to really respond.
Arlan Suderman: 22:18So we need to go into the weekend very cautiously.
Todd Gleason: 22:21I wanna follow-up with you on the screw room very quickly, the Mexico situation you started to talk about because I really haven't followed it very well. Do you have a synopsis of how, how that trade changes or changed, aft before and after we closed the border, and what took place? The screwworm is an insect pest that The United States does not wanna import into it, into its beef cattle herds, and it has worked really hard over decades, I know, flying, on, past actual, screwworms that could breed and bury sterile into Mexico with Mexico's permission. But how does the how does the how was the trade impacted?
Arlan Suderman: 23:08Well, prior to the problem with the new world screwworm, they were shipping on average about 30,000 head of feeder cattle across the border into United States to be fed each week. So that's a tremendous number of cattle that were coming each week into United States. Mind you, this is a time when we're tight on the supply of cattle that are available. And then when it was shut down because the new world screwworm, which last was in United States in 1966, I believe it was, was coming far enough north in Mexico that it was becoming more difficult to be able to control with the release of the sterile males. And so at that point, Secretary Rawlins shut down the border until she could implement some steps, and those steps have included adding more production sites beyond just Panama in order to produce these sterile males so we could increase the number of sterile males available.
Arlan Suderman: 24:08The female only mates once a year. So she mates with ster male. You can eliminate that cycle, so to speak, and then start releasing these in Southern United States, Southern Texas, and in parts of Mexico. And they have effectively stopped the northward movement of the new world screw worm. Now it's still further north we'd like, but they've stopped it further north movement.
Arlan Suderman: 24:33They think they can push it back south. So they're gonna start releasing cattle very slowly through just certain points where they can have intense inspections. And gradually as Mexico works with us to push those screwworm infestations further south, and we can open up to more and more states within Mexico to ship their cattle north. And we think that's gonna take some time, but Mexico does seem to be cooperating very well in this effort.
Todd Gleason: 25:01Thank you very much. I appreciate that. I I understand the economic importance of diseases and insect pests, on the farm and what that really means, within the industry itself, but it's fun to hear how it takes place. So now let's get down to, some final things to take up. I do wanna look at that extended weather forecast, Chip Denlinger.
Todd Gleason: 25:28What do you think on Monday might be the issues related to it?
Chip Nellinger: 25:33Well, Todd, I think there's a couple really. First of all, earlier in the week when we, you know, put the lows for the weekend in December corn, there's a tremendous amount of rain that was digested and expected on this ten day extended forecast. It didn't really change much by Thursday. So, we do have some amount of rainfall baked in the prices in here. So, even if the rains fall is advertised, you know, over the weekend and in the early next week, some of that's baked into prices but beyond that, if you, to Arlen's point earlier, if you come in Sunday night, Monday, and that extended the new run of the of the ten day forecast continues to show some additional rainfall and the temps aren't you know blistering hot.
Chip Nellinger: 26:20I think that's where the market starts thinking. Okay, we've turned the corner and it's you know, higher probability chance now of having a trend line or maybe even a slightly above trend line yield and then the market probably falls under its own weight assuming there's not you know, some major announcement from the president in Des Moines tonight. The funds would probably get back on the sell side. We've corrected the oversold conditions from earlier in the week. The flip side of that is because there is some rain that is baked into prices.
Chip Nellinger: 26:54If we miss them, if you come in Sunday night and Monday and the rains are disappointing and they take rain out of the extended forecast and heat the temperature up. Then, you've got the funds that are still short a fair amount of corn in here and they would be ready, especially on a close back above that moving average, which is somewhere the fifty day moving average somewhere around four forty two, four forty three, previous swing high at four forty seven. You get a close above $4.47, The funds are likely going to start in mass coming out of their shorts. So, we're at a real critical point here price wise and on the production calendar and a long holiday weekend and you know, I guess if you had to write a you know, a a a drama series for TV based on the corn market, it would be exactly what we're facing going into this long weekend right now, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 27:46Let's get a final word from each of you now. Matt Bennett from agmarket.net. I'll start with you today.
Matt Bennett: 27:52Yeah, Todd. I think there's a lot that's gonna happen here over the next couple of weeks. I mean, yes, we all wanna see a rally. If we do, I think the rally could be over just as quickly as what it gets started. If we do get some sort of a hotter dryer forecast on with Chip, you could see some serious short covering in in short order, but at the same time, you know, when that weather flips potentially, you know, it could be a mass exodus and pushing, you know, funds maybe even taking a record short position.
Matt Bennett: 28:19Last summer, we saw what that looked like. It wasn't much fun. So by all means, if we do get this rally, let's have some offers in place and at least, from a flexible standpoint, step in and then manage some of our risk if we get that rally.
Todd Gleason: 28:32Arlen Suderman from Stonax, your final word?
Arlan Suderman: 28:35We've talked about a lot of things that here that could move these markets. And I always think it's helpful in the midst of this. The farmer says, okay, I've heard all these things. What does it mean for me in my marketing? I think it's important to recognize that we're still in that part of the ag cycle when our bigger concern is going to be protecting the equity in our farms or our bigger concern is going to be downside price risk.
Arlan Suderman: 29:02Yes, we may have rallies so far. All of our rallies have been basically speculative shortcoming because we haven't had anything to justify to this point, a sustained rally that was really demand driven. Maybe we'll get that, but at this point, we don't have any indications of it. And these cycles usually last four or five years. And during this phase, we need to have the mindset that we're taking advantage of rallies to lock in prices that'll protect the equity we have in our farm, lock in input costs, etcetera, and, to be defensive in our marketing and not take too many chances, so to speak, on, well, if I hang on, maybe I can hit a home run.
Arlan Suderman: 29:43Let's let's go with singles and doubles.
Todd Gleason: 29:45And finally, Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Ag Remarketing, your final word for the day.
Chip Nellinger: 29:49Yeah, I think that was well put by Arlen. I think you have to be really willing to protect these rallies that we see with defensive strategies, maybe that's puts, maybe that's minimum price contracts, you still have upside potential. I think it's also really important right now, especially in corn to go back to your crop insurance. People have different coverages, some people bought up with higher coverages than 85% but take what your March spring crop insurance guarantee was. Run a couple examples, divide back into it what you think your actual yield is back into that original March revenue guarantee.
Chip Nellinger: 30:25It'll tell you what price December corn needs to be in October in order to trigger a crop insurance payment. In some cases, that's gonna be fairly not too far from where we're at. So you can kinda have some peace sleeping at night that to know that, you know, we don't have a major gap from where prices are to where your crop insurance kicks in. That's good to know. If you're in an area that's been getting rain, you got implanted early, you've got way above APH yield potential, that gap from where we're at to where your crop insurance kicks in on the downside is probably bigger.
Chip Nellinger: 30:58And if you do the exercise in beans, the gap is enormous because we just didn't have a high enough revenue guarantee. Take that into consideration when you're, you know, making decisions on your marketing plan. I think there's gonna be tons of volatility but we have to be willing as Arlen said, protect the protect the rallies and the and the revenue while it's here even if it's not quite as high as what you'd like on the profitability side.
Todd Gleason: 31:23Commodity week is a production of Illinois Public Media. You may listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like at willag.org, willag.0rg. Our thanks go to our panelists today, including Arlen Suderman, Matt Bennett, and Chip Dellinger. I will also direct you to the closing market report from Thursday of this past week when we talked with Boris Camilletti who is the extension plant pathologist. Plant pathologists from across the land grant spectrum have gotten together and there are a couple of tools related to tar spot and many other plant diseases both for corn and soybeans, wheat as well, that you can access.
Todd Gleason: 32:05He'll talk about those but more importantly he will discuss fungicide timing and sprays and whether those are worthwhile. One of the tools will tell you whether tar spot has been found in your county. The second one to use will tell you if it's likely to continue to develop in your county and on your field in fact, and if you put that together with whether you've scouted or not and found it, you may very well not need to make a fungicide application today. And if you do, you might still have to make a second one later, and it depends mostly on whether tar spot is present or not. That's an economic on the farm that you want to know about.
Todd Gleason: 32:51You can listen to Boris Camilletti in the Thursday, July 3 edition of the closing market report. It is at willag.org on University of Illinois Extensions, Todd Gleason.