Oct 02 | Commodity Week

Todd Gleason: 00:00

This is the October 2 edition of Commodity Week.

announce: 00:08

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Jim McCormick. He's at agmarket.net out of Barrington, Illinois. Greg Johnson joins us from Champaign, Illinois at TGM Total Grain Marketing.

Todd Gleason: 00:27

And Chip Nellinger is here from Blue Reef Agrimarketing that's bluereaf.ag, bluereaf.ag online. He is in Morton Illinois. Commodity Week of course is a production of Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org, willag.0rg. I think we have quite a bit to talk about this week, but let's get a list of items from each of you that we might want to discuss.

Todd Gleason: 00:58

Jim McCormick from agmarket.net, we'll start with you. What's on your list?

Jim McCormick: 01:03

I'd probably the two big talking points that we probably need to talk to you about is the, you know, the China deal of the President Trump's tweet earlier in the week about trying to meet with Xi in four weeks and then Scott Betts' comment earlier this week about maybe a soybean buyout a soybean bailout for the soybean producers here announced next week. And we also probably need to talk about the ramifications of the quarterly grain stock report that was released earlier in the week.

Todd Gleason: 01:28

Greg Johnson from TGM Total Grain Marketing, what's on your mind as you're taking a lot of crop in, I suppose, at the elevator?

Greg Johnson: 01:36

Yeah. And and I I think that the yields that we're getting probably need to be discussed a little bit. And is that general across the Midwest? Or is that just kind of isolated to certain areas? What in general are we hearing?

Greg Johnson: 01:55

And then not only on the supply side, but then the demand side, what will we see as far as demand to offset these big crops when it comes to ethanol exports, for example, and or soybean trade deal with China. So, we've got both the supply side and the demand side to talk about.

Todd Gleason: 02:15

Nothing, by the way, until we get the government back to work and probably delayed until they until we see the supply and demand tables. That is from the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates. We'll get back to that in just a bit. Chip Nellinger from Blue Reef Agrimarketing. What's on your list?

Chip Nellinger: 02:32

Yeah. I agree with everything that's been so far. I I think something that's kinda hitting my my radar screen here just recently, the last day or two. Are we starting to see some money flow changes from the funds now that we're into a new quarter? You've seen some big moves in the metals, some pressure in the livestock markets, and some strength in the grains.

Chip Nellinger: 02:54

So are we seeing a little bit of money flow change compared to what we've been used to over the last, you know, three or four quarters in here.

Todd Gleason: 03:02

Well, let's pick up there. Why don't you talk to me a little bit about that? Where do you see the money changing hands at mostly, and is it flowing into or out of the commodity markets?

Chip Nellinger: 03:13

Well, that's the question, Todd, and I don't know if it's outside market influences. I'm I'm not sure if it's the government shutdown. Obviously, the, you know, the comments and the the tweets and and comments from president Trump about supporting soybean farmers might be supporting the grain markets, but I just noticed today, especially, you know, the the metals markets, you know, pushing up into new all time highs here recently. They're under some heavy selling pressure. The cattle market obviously isn't a 2.5 bull market.

Chip Nellinger: 03:43

Looks like maybe some shine is off of that. You know, the the strength there and they've been aggressive sellers there and you've had some nice buying across the entire grain sector here. So, don't know if it's new money coming into the commodity markets necessarily. I think it may just be the start of some some shifting maybe from you know assets or commodities that they have a lot of profits in and maybe coming out of some of these, you know, short grain positions that they've got profits in as well. Maybe they're just taking some money off the table with the uncertainty of the government shutdown and some geopolitical risks out there.

Todd Gleason: 04:23

Well, they could be taking money off the table, Jim McCormick, and that would push the market higher as they were changing their positions, or they could be pushing money into a safe haven. Sometimes the commodity markets are considered that. That does turn my attention to the trade deals that president Trump is trying to negotiate, particularly in agriculture as it's related to China. What do you think about the prospects four weeks from now as they turn their attention really to soybeans? Suppose many other things I would think as well when they meet.

Jim McCormick: 05:00

Well, I I think it's definitely gonna be a talking point. I I am, Todd, I'm a little bit suspicious anything's actually really gonna get done. I I do think president Trump is feeling a lot of heat, from his the farm based plain and simple, especially there was a you know, that that very famous picture, I guess, you could now say that Brooke Rollins had sent a text over to Scott Bessett complaining about how the potential deal to help bail out Argentina, then Argentina came in there and fire celled a bunch of beans up to 40 cargoes of beans to to China. I I think it kinda painted president Trump into a into a corner where he felt like he had to say something to calm the market down a little bit or the base down a little bit. But the reality is when you look at this, Todd, he's talking about doing that at the apex summit.

Jim McCormick: 05:46

It was at the very October. But if I'm the Chinese, I gotta be honest. Why would you cut a deal before that? Because we have the big supreme court ruling or not ruling, but essentially essentially case that's gonna be argued on November 5 that these tariffs that president Trump has put on, if they're even legal and if he can even do that. So if you're the Chinese, I would argue they're probably gonna wait and see how that tariff case plays out before they really make any other kind of concessions to president Trump.

Jim McCormick: 06:17

And I think that could happen to all these all these Asian countries. I mean, there's a lot of hope that as he goes to the APEC summit, he can lock down some of these deals, but, you know, are these countries gonna be a little bit hesitant just to wait to see if he actually has the power to do the deal that he's actually doing? So we'll see.

Todd Gleason: 06:33

Greg Johnson, if you've been following this along and and some of the things that Bessent has said about the potential of, a tariff soybean bailout, relatively speaking, might come on Tuesday of next week. Sometimes it sounds from the administration as if well, I should say take this back. I don't think that any time from the administration that it has sounded as if they're really willing to go down this road that, the president has said, and generally, if he he says it, it it is something that it gets done, that tariffs will tariff taxes will be used to pay soybean producers. We'll see whether they can actually pull that off or not, I suppose. Then Besant always sounds a little hesitant as to how much that might come that might come to producers, and I'm just wondering from each of your perspectives what you're thinking about that, Greg, and maybe you should start.

Greg Johnson: 07:35

Yeah. I I think we need to keep in in mind how this all started. You know, president Trump imposed tariffs on China because he was unhappy with their fentanyl production and lack of willingness to curb that. So he put, you know, trillions of dollars worth of tariffs on Chinese I mean, not trillions, but that's what, China ships to us. You know, everything that's basically in Walmart comes from China.

Greg Johnson: 08:03

So, you know, the quote is, you know, while this is important to US agriculture, we're talking billions of dollars with a b. But when we're talking about all the goods that China ships to us, we're talking about trillions of dollars with a T. So China does have reason to come to an agreement, but obviously they want those tariffs taken off or at least reduced to something manageable. So I think that is the big key we have to remember. I think China would have no problem buying soybeans from us, agreeing to buy soybeans from us if the tariffs on their products, get reduced or eliminated.

Greg Johnson: 08:43

So, you know, that's the big picture. And, you know, Trump in the meantime can, you know, hand out some of that, tariff money to soybean producers, you know, no problem. But, you know, the big picture is, will China take off the tariffs on U. S. Soybeans?

Greg Johnson: 08:59

And the answer is, in my opinion, yes, but not until The U. S. Takes tariffs off of the products that China ships to us. So it's all back in that court of when do we take the tariffs off of or at least reduce the tariffs on the Chinese product.

Todd Gleason: 09:13

If the Chinese impose a 20% tariff on US soybeans, a 15% tariff on any corn that they might and they have not, either actually imported from The United States Chip Nellinger, and it's all tied up with Ukraine Russia war and crude oil coming out of Russia as well because there's a set of tariffs that the president could bring India into this, but that the president has imposed and has been watching. So all these things, on the global stage are working, into this, and I'm I'm just feel like it might take way longer than November to come to any agreement. This would be the fifth round of talks if I remember what, mister Besant had to say about these the set of trade deals. Do you think they can get it done?

Chip Nellinger: 10:06

I think they can get something done, but I agree with you Todd. I think that's way out into the future. It's not an inconsequential, issue for the farm community and producers out there, But in the big picture, I agree that the soybean situation, the entire crop of soybeans is a drop of the bucket when you talk about all these interrelated you know issues and the amounts throughout the world global economy. The other thing that scares me and has for quite some time, you know, in Trump's first term, easy to get a a deal there that included beans because we're in the second year of a Brazil drought coming off a record production there. It looks like they're set to, you know, plant a record amount of acres again and very quickly, you know, if you push this into January, you're on the doorstep of what looks like could be another big Brazilian bean crop and they're going to get their supplies from Brazil anyway.

Chip Nellinger: 11:06

So, you know, I think it's an uphill battle. I don't think it's impossible to see a deal, but, will it be soon enough to, keep this rally going? I'm not quite so sure about that, but certainly the comments earlier in the week did, a lot to, you know, put a floor underneath these markets, especially the bean market.

Todd Gleason: 11:27

And Jim McCormick, to stay with this topic for just a bet, the farm doc team, the agricultural economist here on the Urbana Champaign campus very early in, I think, this summer suggested that if there were ever a bailout for, producers like last time around, that given prices and what the expectations were over the long run, that this would simply serve to hold up the price of inputs and might not be the best of ideas in general across the board, putting pressure on a marketplace that might not really unless there is something different than an agreed to amount, that tariffs actually come off and trade resumes in some other form, just might not be the best option for farmers in America.

Jim McCormick: 12:19

Well, I think that is kind of the common consensus. I mean, if money does flow now, how the money is gonna flow, Todd, I think how you gotta you know, we got a government shutdown. There is no money right now to bail the farmer out per se. You gotta remember the first go around, they use the CCC corpse money to essentially fund, you know, that first round of Trump Trump money in, you know, 2018 or so. That has no money in it right now.

Jim McCormick: 12:46

So this is what we need to be watching as we renegotiate to just get to the, especially the economy open or the government open, and then maybe the long term funding, that's gonna be a key of what's out there because the Democrats are gonna have a say on how much money does go into the CCC. So how much money does go in is still up for debate. But I agree with the economists that for the most part, this money is going to do just like we had an injection of money last year in the late wintertime. Most of that money went right into the farmer's bank and right from the bank and went right back out to C dealers and the lenders. And I'm guessing that's what's gonna happen again when it's all said and done.

Jim McCormick: 13:26

And it's just in general, the cost inflation is right there. And when you push money into the system, it's just like the stimulus checks that we gave people during COVID. When you just hand people money, you're essentially encouraging inflation instead of pulling money out of the system, which is really what we need to do right now. The m two money supply is at all time highs, and that's part of the problem we're seeing right now.

Todd Gleason: 13:49

These are all outside market influences. Let's turn our attention to the fundamentals of the marketplace. We'll start with the quarterly stocks report. And Jim, I'll stay with you because this was on your list. Can you tell me about that report and how you viewed it?

Jim McCormick: 14:03

Alright. Now, you know, when you looked at it, the core number was a big they did did that slight revision of last year's crop, raised it by 25,000,000. I think the big the big thing I'm looking at right now was that revision on the residual, the feed and residual number dropping it dramatically, what, around 170, 180,000,000 bushels. Because when you look at that feed and residual for the old crop, Todd, compared to the current estimate of the new crop, obviously, we haven't got the new crop balance sheet. It's about a 600,000,000 bushel increase from one year to the next.

Jim McCormick: 14:33

And in my mind, it's just it's impossible that we're going to feed 600,000,000 more bushels of corn to livestock this upcoming year because there's less livestock to feed. And I've always thought that feeding residual number was too high. Remember Todd, they cut the feeding residual number back in January of a year ago and never touched it for the next nine months. Yet back in January, we did not know that that border was going be closed for nine months. So there's no way they could have accounted for it.

Jim McCormick: 15:00

So the adjustment they made, I believe this week was right. But what happens is they're going to put that bigger carrying forward into the new crop. They're going to have to adjust down the feed number eventually. And I'm in the camp with a lot of people. This corn crop is probably going to shrink back from the current yield estimates.

Jim McCormick: 15:18

But I fear that as they shrink back the yield due to the disease and dryness issues, it's just going to be offset with lowering of the feed number, raising of the carry in, and we're still going to be hanging around a 2,000,000,000 carryout, which just unfortunately is not a bullish number.

Todd Gleason: 15:32

Okay. Chip Nellinger, when you put those numbers together, it really was the core number that was Barry's number not so much. It was not that different than most I think had expected. Can you tell me how you viewed it and what you think that means going forward?

Chip Nellinger: 15:46

Yeah. I I think Jim's spot on. The the question is how fast do they drop demand going forward? It's usually not you know, a one off. Usually, it takes some several reports to get that done.

Chip Nellinger: 16:00

I thought it was a bit of a disservice in August anyway to raise demand by six fifty some million and then another 100,000,000 in September just because of this fact that when the crop shrinks, then, they have you know, the dial to dial back demand and you know, kind of take away some potential opportunities. So, I I agree with Jim. I I I think at the end of the day, it's it's going to be hard to have a wildly bullish number but yet, you know, our exports are good. The the demand side is is still holding in there. It looks like and and I think that people maybe the market maybe a little in the end result at maybe how low these corn yields can go.

Chip Nellinger: 16:45

I mean, this disease and and the dryness and and tar spot and southern rust. It it decimated a lot of yield this year and so, you know, to me, it's just the the combination of how fast they drop yield versus how fast they drop demand. Still think it could mean we could at least see a period of time where the funds get out of their shorts and corn, maybe get flatter a little bit net long but it probably doesn't mean we're gonna see $556 corn this year.

Todd Gleason: 17:14

So, Greg Johnson, because it is highly unlikely that the USDA, even if congress were to come back and the federal government were to be funded, we'll be releasing its monthly report on Thursday of next week. That's when it's actually due for an update of the crop production and the world ag supply and demand estimates. I'm going to ask you to be our USDA day today. You wanted to talk about yields and demand both. Let's start with the demand side, and then you can build in the yields, please.

Greg Johnson: 17:45

The the plus side to the demand equation is that the ethanol exports continue to be very strong. So you could make an argument that that number will stay steady. But I agree with everybody else. The feed and residual number needs to come down. The only reason it went up was so that they could lower it later on when they raise the yield, they raise the demand so that they don't get the carryout too wildly bearish.

Greg Johnson: 18:11

But now that I assume yield is going to come down a couple of bushels based on everything that Chip said, the disease pressure in Iowa and some other states that got crops planted late and were too wet early and too dry late. But still the bottom line is you can lower the yield by two, three, four bushels. But if you lower the demand side of that equation, you're still looking at a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout. So the bottom line is the upside potential is limited on the futures market. Now if you've got bins, you can lock in that carry and you can lock in a pretty good price for March, April, May, June, July.

Greg Johnson: 18:48

But if you have to haul it to the elevator and pay storage charges,

Jim McCormick: 18:53

you're

Greg Johnson: 18:53

going to get most of that back. So there's really not a good way to take advantage of it unless you have your own bins. And I am been cautioning farmers to be realistic. A 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout, we're probably going to plant less corn next year, but with a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout, we can get by with less corn. And the last thing is this new world screwworm is moving closer and closer to The United States, and it's affecting the Mexican cattle crop right now, which reduces demand and what happens if it would happen to make it into The U.

Greg Johnson: 19:26

S. So more of a black swan type thinking ahead, but you know, we we don't want to get too carried away. I mean, I do agree that the yield is too high, but we come down two or three bushels. But, bottom line is the demand is going to come down a little bit too, and and so the upside is probably limited on price.

Todd Gleason: 19:43

Tim McCormick, are you getting enough objective yield data that you can make a good guess, that we're off two bushels from where we are? That would still be a record yield, by the way, but and and I don't know other producers, what they're thinking about the size of this crop. So fundamentally what are you hearing about yields across the Midwest and where there are good yields and where there are substantially better than what they expected kind of yields places or, you know, the kinds of yields maybe that they were expecting early in the year, and where there are some holes in, our yield maps.

Jim McCormick: 20:20

I mean, there's definitely coming off. I mean, I talked to a client of mine just outside of Indianapolis today and he said, look, there was areas up there that they thought late July, early August that corn could do two forty to two fifty. It's coming in two twenty to two thirty. Is he disappointed? Yeah.

Jim McCormick: 20:38

Because it wasn't two forty to two fifty, but two twenty is still a pretty solid crop. And I think that's kinda where if you're my guess for a yield, I would say it's gonna be somewhere right around one eighty three, maybe one eighty four. I'm not in the camp that it's gonna be below one eighty, Todd. It's just the statistics of it all. If you take the current yield that the government's working with and you lower the state of Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, If you lowered every one of those states current estimate by 10 bushels, your national yield would still only drop to 179.2 and we're not gonna drop all those states 10 bushels.

Jim McCormick: 21:17

Some are gonna go down, believe, but some are maybe drop a little bit. So I'm in that right around that 183 level. And unfortunately at 183 is 1,500,000,000 more bushels bigger than a year ago. That is a lot of corn that we've got to deal with. And on top of it, the best estimate we have, Scott, right now, now, Todd, is maybe 15% of the corn crops been sold and 15% of the bean crop has been sold.

Jim McCormick: 21:41

That's it. So there's a lot of corn, a lot of beans have got to be harvested yet that's still up to be marketed.

Todd Gleason: 21:47

Okay, so for each of you, and Chip Nellinger, I'm going to start with you. This is probably not an easy question to answer, but in the last time we had a federal government shutdown, it lasted thirty five days, I believe. Well, it should have gone over two, WASDE reports. I think it went over October and November, honestly, if I remember correctly. October tends to be a bad month for the financial markets, so that might be something you would want to consider.

Todd Gleason: 22:16

But, the marketplace was lost. I do recall that and without direction. So here's the question. Where do you think the market is trading today, and does that float point going through the month of October or through the next thirty days, let's call it that, does that offer an opportunity or not for producers to make cash sales or a sale of some sort for corn and or soybeans given what you think eventually USDA, once we do have a report, will show?

Chip Nellinger: 22:56

Yeah. That is a that there's a lot to unpack with that question, Todd. I I I do think it's a problem that we don't get the October report. It's a real problem if we don't get the November report because then the the next time they do you know, objective yields is January and so, I do think that the market's trading right now one eighty fiveish, maybe one eighty six. I think in the end result, I I've done the numbers.

Chip Nellinger: 23:26

I disagree a little bit with Jim. I I I do think maybe that we're in that one seventy nine, one eighty. Just maybe maybe not even as good as a year ago or just slightly better than a year ago. Will they ever say that? And I'm not saying they would have said that on the October crop report either.

Chip Nellinger: 23:44

You know, but by January, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get it down really close or slightly under one eighty. I I still think it's the range though. You know, regardless of whether there's government shutdowns or crop reports, if you do see rallies up to the top end of the range, you know, back towards $4.30 or above in December corn, higher if you're you know, have on farm storage and carry. I think you gotta be a seller. Think in the same breath, don't get you know, too worked up if we get down towards the bottom end of the range between 4 and $4.10.

Chip Nellinger: 24:20

I think there's good value down there. Beans, same thing because of all the uncertainty we talked about earlier with the you know, the the China US trade deal will happen, won't it happen? Does it take too long to happen? That you get pushes back north of of $10.50 on November beans and and then, you know, obviously better than that with the carry in the market. Yeah, you have to be a willing seller and you know, I I think we're still in that range and you're right without government reports particularly the October crop report is such an important report every year anyway and to not have it this year with all the uncertainty and questions about yield is really gonna leave the market, you know, clamoring for information and in a big black hole.

Todd Gleason: 25:03

Okay, Greg. I'll pick up with you. I have an information blackout. What opportunities does does that bring, and what issues does it bring? Same question that Chip just answered.

Greg Johnson: 25:16

Well, the good news is lack of information should translate to volatility. We should see higher highs, but we could see lower lows as well. So if the perception is negative, we could go lower than what you might think otherwise. On the flip side, as Chip said, maybe there's people out there talking 179, 180. Let's let them talk that up and if they can, you know, translate that into buying into the market, that's going to give farmers an opportunity to get corn sold at better prices than if the government would be in operation and come out and say, no, it's 183, 184.

Greg Johnson: 25:50

So I think there could be some volatility here, but you know, you have to, you know, pick your points and to me, 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout limits the upside. You know, we're at 4 20 December corn, maybe we can get to $4.35 I don't think we need to go much higher than that. The carry will do most of the work beyond that. And in soybeans we're at $10.25 Could we go to $10.5 Yes, but I don't see $11 beans in equation. So this uncertainty, this government shutdown might give us a chance to sell crops a little bit better than if the government was open.

Greg Johnson: 26:29

And I think we need to take advantage of that.

Jim McCormick: 26:31

I'm pretty much close to agreeing with Chip. I mean, I was my accountant clients, hey, you got the long term trend line off your February high and your April high. That converges pretty much right at the two hundred day moving average around $4.39 You get up near that level. These corn up near $4.30, you know, $4.35, $4.39, sell it or sell the carry definitely if you're gonna use your bins. I would agree you get down near $4.

Jim McCormick: 26:55

You probably don't get too too nervous about it. I think you try to maybe use that as an opportunity to reown it. I do wanna make one stat that just bugs me a little bit. I mean, recent history is we bottomed the market early just like we did last year in August. We bottomed it in August this year.

Jim McCormick: 27:12

Our our partners over at JSA did a study and they're looking at it and they said, historically, when you produce more corn than you consume the year before where supply is up 103% or above the previous year's demand, like it looks like it could be this year, 80% of the time, eight out of 10 years when that's happened, you did not put the fall low in until late October into the November timeframe. So there is a historical bias that in these big crop years, we don't hit that absolute fall low late in the year. I hope that doesn't happen, but there is a little history that says maybe that's what happens as we try to find a home for the spinal chunk of grain.

Todd Gleason: 27:52

And I will turn my attention back to you, Greg Johnson, in the elevator system. We have talked a lot about basis coming into this fall and what the potential issues were given the size of the crop that we thought was coming as late as August, particularly in the Western Corn Belt. I see that at least at my grain elevator, basis has tightened up by 2¢ in the last couple of days. What is basis telling you about what's happening out west?

Greg Johnson: 28:30

Basis is telling us that the farmers are being stubborn and not moving the grain into the marketplace. They don't like the flat price and so they're trying to sock away everything that they can, which in the short run is supportive to the basis. But is it supportive to the futures price? No, that's a question of supply and demand. So the fact that the basis is getting better just tells me that farmers aren't selling corn.

Greg Johnson: 28:54

They don't like to sell at these prices and they'd like more. Maybe they'll get another $0.10 $05 but that's probably about it. And they probably should know, reward the market if we do go up another $10.15 cents from these levels.

Todd Gleason: 29:09

I know that, elevators have been hunting for corn and calling. Right? So with a you're you're hauling in, we'll we'll give you this much above. We'll give you a quick shipment premium of some sort. And I don't know whether I wanna call it a quick shipment, but it's because farm because farmers simply aren't selling their corn, and you're telling me they should.

Greg Johnson: 29:30

They should here in another $00 $05 I mean, we've rallied off the $3.9 D slow, we're up $0.35 off of that low. It's still not a great price, but it's $0.35 better than where we were on that August 12 crop report. If we go up another $0.15 that's $0.50 off the August low. At some point, you have to ask yourself, how much is enough? And, you know, at that point, there's probably just as much, if not more, downside potential than there is upside potential.

Todd Gleason: 29:58

Alright. Let's get a final word from each of you. Jim McCormick at agmarket.net in Barrington, Illinois. What's your final word for the day?

Jim McCormick: 30:07

My final word for the day is, you know, we're gonna be flying blind a little bit here until the government reopens. It probably, as the group said, is gonna provide some volatility. If we do get that up for momentum, potentially do not be afraid to lock it in. The reality is even if this crop gets smaller, the demand's probably gonna be adjusted lower. A 2,000,000,000 carryout does not argue bullish corn prices back up to five.

Jim McCormick: 30:28

You gotta be realistic. Same thing with beans. Until we get a China trade deal, beans are gonna struggle as well.

Todd Gleason: 30:33

Chip Nellinger from Blue Reef Agri Marketing at bluereef.ag online in Morton, Illinois. Your final word.

Chip Nellinger: 30:40

Yeah. It seems like there's a lot of pessimism out there. So, I just remind everybody like Jim said, there's going to be some volatility here. There's probably going to be things you know, outside market related that we can't even think about right now that add some volatility. So, don't take your focus off these markets.

Chip Nellinger: 30:55

I know input costs are high, and it feels like prices are in the in the tank right now, but there's gonna be some opportunities ahead. You gotta have a plan, be ready to sell when you get the opportunities. It could happen quick, but, certainly don't stick your head in the sand because there will be opportunities over the next ninety and hundred and twenty days.

Todd Gleason: 31:12

Then Greg Johnson from TGM Total Grain Marketing at the elevator right here in Champaign County, Illinois.

Greg Johnson: 31:18

It's not too soon to look ahead to the 2026 crop. November soybean futures are $10.7 on the board. We would love to have $10.7 for this year's crop. If we get anywhere close to $11 remember that Brazil is expected to produce 6,500,000,000, with a B, billion bushels of beans this coming year. The U.

Greg Johnson: 31:40

S. For reference is at 4,300,000,000, so another 2,000,000,000 bushels more than what we produce is what Brazil is expected to produce. So, keep an eye on the November 2026 bean, futures.

Todd Gleason: 31:55

Commodity Week, of course, is a production of Illinois Public Media. You may listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like. You can do that on our website at willag.org. That's willag.0rg. Our thanks go to our panelists this week including Jim McCormick, Greg Johnson, and Chip Nellinger.

Todd Gleason: 32:13

I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.