Oct 23 | Commodity Week

Todd Gleason: 00:00

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. This is the October 23 edition of Commodity Week. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We're joined today by Naomi Bloom. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin.

Todd Gleason: 00:22

In Chicago, we're joined by Ted Seifried. He's with Zaner Ag Hedge, and we're also joined today from Morton, Illinois by Ellen Deirden of AgReview. Let's turn our attention to exactly what we'll talk about today. I think Ellen will start with you. What kinds of items are on your mind?

Ellen Dearden: 00:42

I sure would like to talk about BASIS because it flashed, a bullish signal all two weeks ago. And, then the spread started narrowing to another you know, today on Thursday, upside breakouts in both corn and beans.

Todd Gleason: 00:59

Naomi Blohm at Total Farm Marketing on your list.

Naomi Blohm: 01:03

Yeah, let's build up what Ellen was talking about. In addition to funds buying back short positions, of course, we can't see the weekly view of it, but we can get a daily snapshot. And I just feel like with the cheap value that we have for these grain markets and the strong export inspections that we saw this week, I think there's a lot of grain moving and that demand is fantastic.

Todd Gleason: 01:26

And finally, Ted Seifried.

Ted Seifried: 01:28

Yeah. You know, certainly seen some strength in basis, which is interesting when you're, you know, moving along through harvest. Generally speaking, that means that maybe crops weren't quite as big as expected or that demand is stronger than expected. Although in the case of soybeans, that'd be a tough argument to make, I believe. And then, you know, speaking of soybean demand, there were talks that, maybe China was in there buying some today.

Ted Seifried: 01:53

And it was a very specific number, over 1,000,000 metric tons. And with the specific, with with the how specific that that number was, it I don't know. Maybe sounds like that is the case. The problem with that is I don't know how we'll know for sure with the lack of, any government reporting on export sales.

Todd Gleason: 02:11

So let's take up the basis part first. Ellen Dearden of AgReview, talk to me about these bullish trends in the corn market as it's related to basis and the spreads.

Ellen Dearden: 02:21

Well, on the basis side of things, our basis in Central Illinois, let's talk corn right now, has gone from about, 35 under to about 25 under. And I would say in my neighborhood around Peoria that the corn harvest is 95% complete. On the bean side of things we're looking at basis that is, oh, had been at the widest probably 45 under and is now 25 or 30 under. And interestingly the river bids are good and the processor bids are even better. So, we're seeing a real move in basis in areas where harvest is really winding down rapidly.

Ellen Dearden: 03:14

That may not be the case when you look at areas that have a lot to harvest yet.

Todd Gleason: 03:19

Well, I'm wondering about the demand side of this. What's the pull in the marketplace? In our area in Illinois? Why do you suppose basis is at this point really, narrowing up?

Ellen Dearden: 03:35

Well, we're seeing these processor margins really good and especially on the bean side of things. Bean harvest kind of wrapped up early and people probably sold the first bushels across the scales and took the rest and put them put those at home. So beans aren't going to move here other than seeing commercially owned beans that'll go be moving on this bump up in basis. But on the corn side of things, I think we're seeing the river bids have improved when we, despite the fact that we've got low water and some barge restrictions, we still see these river bids strong on corn. So they have to buy from the, ethanol demand, for corn as well.

Ellen Dearden: 04:21

Again, we're not seeing a big flush of farmer selling in the corn side of things either. I think home storage was empty to start out the year and so there was plenty of bin space on farm to to hit this crop, hit I put the crop right back in the bin.

Todd Gleason: 04:39

So Ted Seifried, the futures market sometimes, particularly during the middle of a government shutdown when there are not USDA reports released, has difficulty, especially during this time frame. And really, only other time that we have a good experience was during the first Trump administration, thirty five days during the fall, finding a path through the market, and basis is where they turn. I'm wondering how you see this basis, particularly for corn, soybeans too, as it divides east and west across the Corn Belt.

Ted Seifried: 05:15

Yeah. You know, obviously, you know, the river is the the main thing that determines that for corn because the corn demand or the big bright spot in corn demand right now is certainly export demand. And so, you know, when you look at the far western reaches of the Corn Belt, it's, you know, maybe not, quite as strong there. You also have, I'm gonna say, better yields, out that way too. I think the big surprise that was coming in Illinois is part of the reason why you're seeing that basis kinda come back in a little bit better or earlier than expected.

Ted Seifried: 05:51

And so yeah. I mean, look. Corn demand is is good. Yes. There was a lot of corn acres this year.

Ted Seifried: 05:57

Yes. There I'm gonna still say it is a pretty decent yield even though probably well off of what the USDA's expectations were. We're gonna have to wait a while to find out what their their current expectations are. But with corn demand being good, you've got a lot of, competing demand points between ethanol plants and, you know, the river and and export, that is keeping that fairly strong.

Todd Gleason: 06:19

Did you say big surprise in Illinois? And if that's the case, what was it?

Ted Seifried: 06:24

You know, I I think Illinois has come in well below what the last look at we had, for the USDA's, yields. Yeah. Again, that was in September. You know, a lot may have changed within the USDA. We won't know or who knows actually when the next report's going to be from from them.

Ted Seifried: 06:43

But the Illinois numbers, especially Southern Illinois, I think a for the most part, have been coming in a lot lower than what had been expected a month and a half ago. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that reflects on AUSDA's national average yield if and when we get to see that again.

Todd Gleason: 07:01

And, Naomi Bloom, you did mention this up front and the things you wanted to talk about saying grain is moving. Demand is fantastic, particularly for corn. What are you thinking?

Naomi Blohm: 07:11

Yeah. Here's what I liked about corn this week. So on Monday, USDA released their weekly export inspection report and corn bookings for the week ending October 16 at 1,300,000 metric tons near the high end of the range and in bushels, That's like 97,000,000 above the seasonal pace that was needed to reach USDA's already huge, large target. So this is actually the second best week of corn export inspections since 1982. That's from DTN.

Naomi Blohm: 07:43

So we have strong demand for product, even though we're not seeing what the weekly sales are. We are exporting product. Then also this week we had our ethanol report, weekly ethanol report, and that jumped to 1,100 barrels a day and three twenty seven million gallons for the week. So production was above expectations. A new marketing year high, 111,000,000 bushels of corn used in the production process.

Naomi Blohm: 08:11

So we have strong export demand. We have strong ethanol demand. And to Ted's point, you know, basis is is strengthening in different parts of the country. If there's a lot of processing facilities there or near the river, if they need to get product down the river, we've seen basis levels at The Gulf stay stronger in general. So that's really exciting.

Naomi Blohm: 08:33

And the other thing, it's not just the corn market, the wheat market. We had great weekly export inspections this week at 480,000 tons, up from 447,000 tons last week. And marketing year to date wheat inspections are 20% higher than the same period last year. They're at 11,100,000 tons versus 9.3 a year ago. So people are buying wheat.

Naomi Blohm: 09:00

I heard a rumor today too, I saw it on the newswire, that maybe China was buying wheat today. And to me, that makes sense. That's been really, really rainy in portions of China for the ending part of September and early October. And in general, just with this wrapping up corn harvest, they were worried about quality. So if China is maybe buying wheat, that's a way for them to secure feed.

Naomi Blohm: 09:24

It's a way for them to not spook the market because if it came out that China was buying corn, everybody would be really excited. So the demand for their the demand for for feed is fantastic, and the demand for US grain is there.

Todd Gleason: 09:37

And, Ted Seifried, on the demand side, and we'll just stay with grains and oilseeds. China, as mentioned, may have been in the market for soybeans as well. What do we know about that?

Ted Seifried: 09:51

Yeah. So there there were some reports coming earlier today that China may have bought 1,260,000 metric tons of US soybeans. Nothing confirmed on that, but we have some contacts in China that said that actually really could be the case. The problem is we're not gonna really know if and when or we're not gonna know if it's the case or not, I don't think. I mean, we don't have our our daily flash sales.

Ted Seifried: 10:16

We don't have our weekly export sales figures. So it's gonna be very difficult to actually lock that down until it actually shows up on an inspections report, which may be weeks from now, if at all. The thing is that there does seem to be a little bit of a window where China might need to fill some needs between where they have booked now, which is pretty much through the November. They just bought some argent more Argentinian cargos the last week, until they get into the Brazilian first season, soybeans really starting in January. So that month of December is really a question mark.

Ted Seifried: 10:53

So that 01/1926, I mean, that's probably right around the number or maybe about half of what they might need for the month of December. It would potentially make sense. The timing of it, though, in front of a meeting with Chinese president Xi and US president Trump nine days from today does make you kinda wonder if they would wanna do that before the meeting or after. But either way, you know, it it we're in that time frame, Todd, where we don't have any government reporting. So rumors like these are gonna be very difficult to confirm or deny until until, again, we see export inspections, but that could be weeks from now.

Todd Gleason: 11:33

Okay. So I wanna ask each of you to talk about, the clientele you've discussed their corn and soybean yields with, and if what you're hearing from them lines up with what you are hearing across the board. So I and the way I think about this sometimes is if I don't hear anything, it's better than expected. And, honestly, I've not heard much, but I don't talk to a lot of producers. I think you talk to them.

Todd Gleason: 12:03

I know you talk to many more than I do. So, Ellen Dearden, what have you heard from different parts of the country?

Ellen Dearden: 12:08

Well, most of my clientele is from Central Illinois West. So, what I'm hearing is from the guys that are done or nearly done is that the both corn and bean yields are really good. And when we're talking really good, we're talking about record or near record all farm yields, even in Central Illinois. As in areas where only half the crop is in, they're a little more suggestive that there were some real issues in their corn crop and that's primarily from Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. But again, pretty decent bean yields.

Todd Gleason: 12:53

Naomi Plum.

Naomi Blohm: 12:54

My clients are telling me a different story. Usually every year if I'm asking my customers, hey, what's going on with your harvest? They'll say, well, mine's okay, but if you go 20 miles down the road, it's not good. And if I hear that, I know things are fine. And I have not heard that once this year.

Naomi Blohm: 13:12

What I am hearing from Iowa is that their yields, because of the Southern rust and they only sprayed once in a lot of cases, is that yields are 20 bushels below last year. I have one client in Northwest Iowa who sprayed three times and he's got his best yields ever, but that is only one. And then today I talked with a client in Northeast Nebraska who is just traditionally has no irrigation. But for him, he had his best yield ever because they actually had rain there this year. And then one client in Minnesota said that he was just average with corn.

Naomi Blohm: 13:52

But for the most part, my clients range from Nebraska to Ohio down into Oklahoma, and only three have said that they are pleased with their corn yields. Everyone else is disappointed. On the soybean side of things, though, I will say that most folks are saying that it's coming in average or as expected and not a lot of, issues there, except in portions of Ohio and portions of Indiana where it had gotten to be a little bit drier in August.

Todd Gleason: 14:22

And Ted Seifer from Zaner Ag Hedge. What are your clients telling you?

Ted Seifried: 14:26

Yeah. You know, I I think, Ellen hit the nail on the head there. The earlier harvested and therefore probably the earlier planted corn, I think was coming in really very well because it largely avoided that dry August, or or, you know, kinda had moved past its key moisture sensitive time frame. And also, you know, maybe the disease pressures came in a little bit too late, to have that much of an impact. But the corn that is getting harvested a bit later, there's a bit more concern about.

Ted Seifried: 14:58

And it is very spotty, and it's really depending on what we put down for inputs, and that can vary from one field to the next even with the same same producer. So the the the corn yields, I think, are are really all over the map. It's very difficult to get a handle on the overall national average, I think, for corn. For soybeans, kind of the same thing. Again, those earlier planted, earlier harvested soybeans, I think did a little bit better because, again, that dry August, certainly is is a problem for soybeans.

Ted Seifried: 15:30

I mean, August is the month, for soybean moisture needs. And I gotta say, I I think from what I've heard from most of my guys, clients, and other guys that I talked to, I think we're a little bit disappointed in in soybean yields as a whole. Especially my guys up in the Dakotas, you know, even the ones that were able to miss out on the the frost event that happened in September, still they're they're still trying to figure out what it was, but their soybean yields had come in quite a bit below what their expectations were. They're wondering if it had to do with the the Canadian wildfires and just lack of of clean sunlight. But, yeah, I worry a little bit about that bean yield.

Ted Seifried: 16:14

The question is is is it gonna matter? Are we gonna have the demand, to to to fill out the other side of the balance sheet or not? But, yeah, the beans, I think, may have come in a bit disappointing for for a lot of guys.

Todd Gleason: 16:26

Okay. So, Ellen, I wanna turn to you and demand from the river system, particularly for corn, because at this time of year, normally, we would be moving a lot of soybeans. I don't think that's the case. And I'm wondering whether that makes a difference in the way you think about the demand and the basis changes in your part of the world and whether producers should or should not be taking advantage of them and what it might mean longer term for this marketing year.

Ellen Dearden: 17:01

Well, as long as the corn demand at The Gulf remains pretty strong, I think we'll see basis remain strong because ethanol demand is sure held together nicely. But, this market too can hit into a rail market that goes to the Southwest and then on to Mexico. So we're seeing demand from that sector of the market too in Western Part Of Illinois. I think that demand will remain strong on corn all the way through the first of the year, maybe well into the spring. Bean demand is really going to be very dependent on Asia but particularly China, So I'm not sure where that'll go.

Todd Gleason: 17:45

A secondary question, because I usually, and because of where we are, think about the Mississippi, the Illinois, the Ohio, even the Missouri moving corn to the ports of New Orleans. But if you get far enough to the West parts of Minnesota, the Dakotas, corn can move out of the PNW, and I'm pretty certain that that's been the case going to some of the Asian nations. Do we think and, Naomi, I'm gonna guess that you might have a handle on this, that that has been a strong demand pull as well?

Naomi Blohm: 18:21

I am actually not totally sure. I know that the basis for the beans up in North Dakota continues to stay wider. It has narrowed in some portions because the processing facilities there and the new processing facilities are able to pick up some of the slack. But I haven't heard too much about corn basis. I would say that for most of my clients, we chat about it, they've been saying it's a little bit of a normal wide at harvest for their area.

Naomi Blohm: 18:51

But now you've got me thinking, and I'm gonna do some digging on that tomorrow for you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 18:56

Alright. Thank you very much, and we'll talk to you Tuesday during the closing market report about that. So Ted Seifried, what do you think producers should consider at this time? And let's let's divide this, and each of you can give me some options on it into, I've got corn left. It's gonna go across the scale, and I'll have a week to make a decision about what to do with it.

Todd Gleason: 19:21

Let's start there. And then with that, that they have on the farm and if they leave it in the if they leave it at the elevator and take the in charge, how do they handle those things? So why don't you start with me, please, and we'll work our way around through everybody.

Ted Seifried: 19:36

Yeah. You know, I I think for corn, you have to kinda look at this time frame and say, you know,

Todd Gleason: 19:43

the

Ted Seifried: 19:43

lack of USDA reporting, the lack of of WASI reports, yield reports, export sales reports, things like that, I think is actually maybe beneficial for corn right now. For one, I think that 207,000,000 bushels that we found on old crop, ending stocks, surprisingly, has kinda gotten swept under the carpet at the moment or just sort of out of sight, out of mind because we have not seen that reflected on a USDA's balance sheet. The reports government shutdown happened before they they were able to get a chance to do that. I I think, yeah, while you could probably take something off of, the the national average yield for for corn, still probably gonna be pretty good, especially with the amount of acreage that we have. That production number's probably gonna be very solid.

Ted Seifried: 20:29

So, yes, we have good demand right now, but I think the production side is gonna be a bit of a problem for corn. And when we start seeing these numbers again, that might be a big reminder. The other thing that I'm concerned about for corn is that South American crop. You know, Conab continues to raise their corn crop that they they just harvested and also raise their next crop that they're intending to plant here pretty soon. And and that's a lot of competition in the world.

Ted Seifried: 20:55

And I'm worried that that competition from last year's corn crop is going to run into the window of our typical corn export season. I I'm worried that a lot of our corn exports are a little bit front loaded here, mainly because South America has been very focused on getting all the beans they can to China that they have had difficulty going full bore on their corn exports, but that will kinda come along in that that January through June time frame where we usually enjoy, sort of almost an exclusive window for our exports. So I I think you look at this as an opportunity for corn. For soybeans, I think it's a little bit of a a diff more difficult decision to make because, you know, what happens, eight, nine days from now in that meeting? Is there gonna be a big deal?

Ted Seifried: 21:45

Is China gonna resume buying US beans like normal? Problem is we've missed a lot of that export window now. So in my mind, you're gonna have to hear that China is committing to 10,000,000 metric tons of US soybeans here and now in order to, you know, start to catch us back up to where we would be for this time of year. And if that doesn't happen, you really have to worry that there's a lot of downside potential for soybeans because just the demand side of the the balance sheet is just going to be a problem even if yields come down. So, you know, the other hand of that is that if China does commit to, you know, more beans and does start buying aggressively with lower yields, we could have a very tight balance sheet.

Ted Seifried: 22:23

So it's a very, very difficult thing to try to predict in beans. I think the best thing I would say though, use this optimism that we have in the market leading up to that meeting, make some sales, and then we can look for reownership strategies in case we really do get some good business from China and we do go sharply higher. But I I I think the big strength in soybeans is here now and up until that, meeting happens. I'm worried that the market's gonna be disappointed with whatever comes out of that meeting.

Todd Gleason: 22:50

So Ellen Dearden, Ted's saying there's an opportunity for both corn and soybeans at the moment. What kind of view do you have at the marketplace?

Ellen Dearden: 22:57

Well, I think the the big problem that I see on corn is a 24¢, in charge to pay for commercial storage till the first of the year. That's just too large for me to be dealing with. I would much prefer to turn corn into cash, on at least the overrun that you can't store at home. And yeah, then you can look at a re ownership strategy in either March or May options. The bean side of things, I think there is a little more upside potential.

Ellen Dearden: 23:30

However, I'm going to really be waiting to see the Treasury Secretary's comments after his meeting this week because if his meeting is not fruitful with the Chinese, then Trump's whatever Trump says with g or if that meeting even takes place will be old news. So I think you gotta wait until the first of the week to price out beans.

Todd Gleason: 23:55

Naomi Blohm, any thoughts for us?

Naomi Blohm: 23:58

Absolutely. If you're making any cash sales here at harvest for whatever reason, do consider reowning it. Corn and beans both, I feel that the prices come Christmas time and into the new year are going to be better than what they are right now. There's an upside down head and shoulders formation on the March corn contract, which points to a swing objective higher closer to four seventy five to four eighty if we can get some additional supportive news to get the market to go higher or if the funds continue to buy back the short positions. Now, I do think that the 4.75 to 4.8 area in March corn might be as good as it gets.

Naomi Blohm: 24:34

For prices to get higher than that, you're going to need to see new demand coming in for export sales. You're going to need to see bad weather happening in South America, and you're going to need to see a bigger reaction of the funds to be buyers. So in general, if we get to that four seventy five area, should that come to fruition come Christmas or come January, that is going to be a point where if folks have corn in the bins, that's where you're going to want be making some more cash sales at that price level. Same concept on the soybeans, looking at re ownership bull call spreads with the March contract. That March soybean contract has been trading in a sideways consolidation pattern for about a year and a half.

Naomi Blohm: 25:13

And the longer the market trades in a sideways pattern, the bigger the price breakout is going to be down the road. So there could be some upside there if China comes in and does some buying here. But of course, if they don't come in, as Ted's point was earlier, the market might have a hard time getting through the short term resistance area that we're at right now. So to reward the rally, especially on beans since we are up about 50¢ off the recent lows, make some sales, reown it with a fixed risk strategy just in case the market can go higher. But in general, I'm a little bit more optimistic with these prices.

Todd Gleason: 25:48

And finally, I'd like to turn our attention to policy coming out of Washington DC. President Trump this month has been working to salvage the Argentine economy. The first thing that happened, of course, was the announcement of a $20,000,000,000 investment to support the Argentine peso that turned out to be $40,000,000,000 at this point. And at the same time, Argentina then took off the tax, something above 30%. I think it's 33 and a half or 35% on soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 26:23

And in four or five days, they sold about 40 cargo loads of soybeans into the marketplace that did not make, American crop row agriculture very happy. And then on Sunday of this week, the president suggested and said that they were going to import Argentine beef into The United States to try to lower consumer beef prices. An announcement eventually came that they're hoping to bring in four times the quota that has been, in place for beef coming into The United States. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association has not been happy. In fact, their press release says cattlemen and women cannot stand behind president Trump while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinean beef.

Todd Gleason: 27:14

It is imperative, that POTUS and secretary Rollins let the cattle markets work without interference. How has the market in Chicago reacted to all of this? And I suppose, I'll start, Ellen Dearden, with you.

Ellen Dearden: 27:31

You're starting with me just because we're cattle people, aren't you?

Ted Seifried: 27:35

I am.

Ellen Dearden: 27:36

I I to tell you the truth, the 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons is not that big a deal but I think the signal from the White House that, I'm gonna beat my chest and look how good a guy I am that, we've got the consumer price for beef going to head lower. It is a kind of a kick in the gut. And, I think that, Colin Woodall is really good about saying that it does undermine the family rancher, family farmer and, the market reaction was really difficult, yesterday when we saw limit down move in the feeder cattle. The live cattle have been able to find support on the nearby months. But when we go back a little further because that's when we imports to start, not so good.

Ellen Dearden: 28:37

So, I'm not in favor of this action. I think this is intervention that doesn't need to be intervened on, but, I'm just, you know, one small little cattle lady out here in the country.

Todd Gleason: 28:49

Colin Woodall is the chief executive officer of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. He and the president of the Beef Association have not been kind in the words there have been expressed as it's related to this, Argentine beef import row that is taking place. Naomi Bloom, what kinds of comments do you have for me today on this issue, if anything?

Naomi Blohm: 29:15

Yeah. Well, I mean, a few weeks ago, president Trump had kind of gave his first warning shot saying he was aware of high prices to the consumer. And then last week, sure, you know, him talking about importing Argentina beef, I mean, to Alan's point, the 80,000 metric tons isn't a huge a lot, a huge amount. And I had reported to my clients earlier in the week that from January through July 2025, our US beef imports were closer to 1,200,000 tons and that's up nearly 30% on the year. So our imports in general from Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, and Argentina were already up.

Naomi Blohm: 29:58

It was just, I think that the market picked up specifically on this Argentina news because it was a concrete number that came out of the White House. But when you look at a monthly chart on cattle, when you look at where prices have been recently, we hit a huge technical objective on a monthly chart with the recent price highs that we've had. And so some profit taking was, you know, I think, bound to happen. Also, you know, cattle producers and farmers, you are savvy. There are marketing tools that are available to help for prices going lower, just keeping the politics out of it.

Naomi Blohm: 30:40

Use your marketing tools to help protect the value. Mean, we've been talking for a year how the cattle prices have been going higher, and at some point it's going to fall. And so it's maybe going to be now the high coming in because of what came out of the White House, the different capacities with that multi point plan that they released yesterday as well, that they're going to try to ultimately bring prices down. As we all know, it's a little bit different to bring the beef herd a lot of growth just because of gestation cycles. It's a lot different than eggs when President Trump said he was going to bring the price of eggs down.

Naomi Blohm: 31:21

But I think this is maybe something that we all thought eventually would come. We just didn't know it would come with this variety of news events swirling around it.

Todd Gleason: 31:31

And Ted Seifried.

Ted Seifried: 31:32

Yeah. You know, to agree with both Naomi and Ellen, you know, 80,000 metric tons up from 20,000 metric tons is really not much. In fact, it's what, three days of consumption? In a year where, to Naomi's point, we're already up, what, 27, almost 30% in our in our imports. And that that's not interference in the markets necessarily.

Ted Seifried: 31:55

That's how markets work. Right? If domestic prices are high and we can look at other markets that, you know, we can buy beef from, Australia in particular, Brazil's got the tariff on them right now. We're gonna do that. Right?

Ted Seifried: 32:08

So I I don't know. This is just more of a function of that. It's the whole point. It's the the the news that it's getting, the attention that Trump is giving to it, that's what we don't really love. Right?

Ted Seifried: 32:21

And and the idea that there could be more things to come to do this. And that that's what the market doesn't like. That's what what cattle ranchers don't like to hear. But being honest, I mean, talking to my cattle guys, I mean, for for months now, they've been saying, I don't know why we're so high. Like, I I really wanna get more involved in in hedge strategies right now, but this is a runaway train, and I don't wanna be margining this.

Ted Seifried: 32:44

And puts are so very expensive. So I think, you know, the strength that we've seen in the cattle market look. We like the prices when we sell our animals, but we have a problem, I think, with, you know, how to manage risk in these markets. And so maybe this is is bringing us into a time frame where that becomes a little bit easier. And, the Argentinian thing in and of itself is not going to make or break our our beef market, our cattle industry, anything like that.

Ted Seifried: 33:11

It's just it's the point of it and the the public, the news publications and and the attention that it's getting. In the meantime, I think the bigger announcement here today was that the Mexican ag minister, will travel to Washington next week, to talk to, Claudia Steinbaum about, you know, reopening the border with Mexico. That is a much, much bigger deal if that happens. I mean, there's there's a whole lot of animals that are are backed up in Mexico that would be coming over the border to start to replenish our herd, and that would be the the thing that that ultimately would probably put the highs in for the cattle complex as a whole. Maybe not right away.

Ted Seifried: 33:52

It takes some time. But that's the one that that I think poses a bigger threat to USB prices. So I don't know. It's been a long term bull market. You know, bull markets have a tendency to ultimately fix themselves.

Ted Seifried: 34:07

I guess the cliche is, you know, high prices are the cure for high prices. That's not been allowed to fix itself mainly because of, the border being closed with Mexico, and to some degree, the tariffs on Brazil. But if those things start to change, especially the border thing, that will start to, again, maybe fix the high prices.

Todd Gleason: 34:26

And, Ellen Dearden, I'll close out the program, and this part of the conversation coming back to you. There is an eight to ten year cycle in cattle, and it appears we should be at the top of that cycle, and should be about to turn. I know you watch these kinds of things. Where do you suppose we are in it?

Ellen Dearden: 34:47

We are at the top. We are at the top, and I was expecting to see it in the summer and then work lower. Even even on the short term, I thought we ought to be working lower in cattle here into October, November, December. So I think the big top's in.

Todd Gleason: 35:07

Commodity week, of course, is a production of Illinois Public Media. That's public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, where you can hear this program in its entire team. Our thanks go to our panelists today, including Ellen from AgReview. She's in Morton, Illinois. Naomi Bloom of totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, West Wisconsin, and Ted Seifried with Zaner AgHedge.

Todd Gleason: 35:32

He is in Chicago. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.