Phenology is actually more accurate at predicting an insect outbreak than using a calendar. A strong change in the weather may delay or accelerate plant growth, the insects are also exposed to the same conditions and the both develop together. Plants and insects have never been too good at reading a calendar. One of the neat things about using phenology is that not only does it let us know that the potential for a pest outbreak is near, it also can guide us to treat those harmful insects at their most vulnerable stage, making control easier and allowing the least toxic product to be used that will manage the insect population.
Dr. Phil Nixon, Entomologist with the University of Illinois recently provided an example recently of how phenology works. Dr. Nixon, using a reference book called Coincide by Don Orton used just one plant to show just how many ornamental insect pests could be monitored. Excerpted from a recent issue of the Home Yard and Garden Newsletter as follows:
Following are the most common pests that are in susceptible treatment stages during vanhoutte spirea bloom.
Full bloom: Birch leafminer young larvae; elm leaf beetle young larvae; European pine sawfly feeding larvae; gypsy moth feeding larvae; pine needle scale crawlers (first generation), black turfgrass ataenius (first generation).
Full to late bloom: Lilac (ash) borer newly hatched larvae; oyster-shell scale (brown) crawlers; emerald ash borer adult beginning emergence.
Finishing bloom: Bronze birch borer newly hatched larvae.
Most blossoms brown, still a few white: Flat-headed apple tree borer larval hatch; peach tree borer newly hatched larvae; viburnum borer newly hatched larvae.
Bloom finished: Oystershell scale (gray) crawlers.
If you began to connect insect feeding problems in your yard with the flowering stage of either the host plant or another landscape plant in your yard you could easily begin to predict the emergence of insects. I looked up another favorite of gardeners, the bagworm, to find out the best time to expect young larvae to be present. According to Don Orton, the best indicator plants are catalpa and tree lilac when they are in full bloom. I will be watching and waiting, tree lilacs are going to be in bloom in 2-3 weeks.