- Giovani Preza Fontes, University of Illinois
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the April 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk with Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com. Gio Preza Pontes, agronomist here on campus at the U of Ime, will help us explore early season planting dates and the impact of cold wet weather on seedlings.
Todd Gleason: 00:24Then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Don Day. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, all on this Tuesday edition of the closing marker report from Illinois public media. It's public radio online on demand at WILLAG.ORG.
announcer: 00:42Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason: 00:47May corn today settled at $4.69. That was up 4 and a half. December, a quarter lower at $4.45 and 3 quarters. And new beans at $9 and 77 and 3 quarters of a cent, down three and a quarter in the November, and wheat futures were up three and a half at $5.54. Naomi Bloom from TotalFarmMarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us.
Todd Gleason: 01:10Hi, Naomi. Thanks for being with us again today.
Naomi Blohm: 01:13Yes. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: 01:14Let's start with the tariff situation. It can be confusing, but let's deal with just soybeans that are going to China. If, the Chinese and the US government do not come to some solution beginning on April 10, which is Thursday, same day as the world ag supply and demand estimate, which could be interesting to watch, the export figures on that day. Chinese imports of US soybeans will be taxed at a 34% level going in or 44% level going into that nation. It would make them fairly expensive across the board, and we still have a lot of soybeans to ship from this year.
Todd Gleason: 01:56What concerns you about all of the trade information that is now floating around?
Naomi Blohm: 02:00Well, two parts. One is the confusion that just continues to transpire every day between what's actually happening and what isn't happening. But then, of course, the bigger picture would be the fear of cancellations, potentially of bean sales that are on the books. My understanding from what I read today, as of March 27, there were about 600,000 tons of China's Twenty Twenty Four, Twenty Twenty Five bean commitments that were unshipped. So could we see cancellations of old crop?
Naomi Blohm: 02:33But of course, I think the bigger concern would going forward would be for new crop sales. In a way, part of me wonders how much of that the market is absorbing or expecting as far as a potential decline in exports going forward, how much of that could be priced into the marketplace. But it's just another wrinkle in this whole situation to create uncertainty. Markets, of course, don't like uncertainty. And it could just put the bean market at risk of further price decline on the uncertainty.
Todd Gleason: 03:06In the USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, the agency did give us a heads up that it did not include any tariffs because they weren't in place, but that in future reports, if they were in place, they would. I suppose they're probably all running already running their numbers, but it would be a scramble on Thursday morning when the WASDE report is due out at 11:00. And we'll have to pay attention to whether things are in place or not and what it does to the exports for The United States, both old and new crop.
Naomi Blohm: 03:39Yeah. Absolutely. And so on on the report for Thursday, right now, not really looking for too many changes to ending stocks from the March number. March soybean ending stocks were at three eighty million bushels. The average trade estimate three seventy nine.
Naomi Blohm: 03:56So I think that's traders' way of saying, we don't know what's going to transpire. So we'll just kind of keep our guess unchanged and see what actually can happen between potential loss of export demand and if the USDA accounts for that on the twenty four-twenty five crop year. And then, of course, it'll take the May report before we get the new crop information, but that's what the what's on the traders' minds right now. And and we'll see what that report has to say Thursday at eleven.
Todd Gleason: 04:24Yeah. I had realized when I said both. I knew immediately that I was wrong. That it will be not until May not until May that we get a set of USDA numbers for the new crop. Corn, turn your attention there.
Todd Gleason: 04:37It seems to have been really, unbothered a lot about all of the tariff talk. Where do we stand today?
Naomi Blohm: 04:46So I really, optimistic yet with old crop values. Corn May corn up 4 and a half cents today. July corn up 4¢. Those, old crop contracts knocking on the door of technical overhead resistance, the $4.75 area for July, the hundred day moving average just needs some friendly news to get it to go through resistance levels. The swing objective higher points to a 20 to 25¢ breakout, meaning that the July corn contract, if we get friendly news on Thursday, could be back up near the $5 value.
Naomi Blohm: 05:20And so what I'm wondering, trade expectations for Thursday's report coming in a little bit lower than the last month's number, March ending stocks at 1,540,000,000 bushels, average trade guess at 1.51. Of course, a lot of the people in the industry thinking that the number could be a little smaller because export demand actually has been fantastic. Ethanol demand, great. But of course, the uncertainty regarding feed demand for livestock in question. If we can get a friendly number on that report, we're gonna see the spreads between old crop and new crop, I think, really start to come into play.
Naomi Blohm: 05:58I'm really friendly with May and July corn, but then we'll have to keep an eye on reality with 5,000,000 acres getting planted down the road. So that kinda takes some of the excitement out of the marketplace. But, hey, for the short term, it'll be helpful for any farmers who have any grain yet to price.
Todd Gleason: 06:16And lastly, because you mentioned livestock, the cattle have not performed well. What worries do you have?
Naomi Blohm: 06:23Well, there's a couple of things. So we're seeing the funds starting to exit that marketplace and take some profits. The June contract for live cattle futures testing the uptrending line that has been established since September. So this is a major support area that we're coming to. We're wanting to see how the consumer demand fares in light of the stock market falling apart.
Naomi Blohm: 06:45Are consumers going to start to feel not as optimistic about the economy? Are they going to start to just kind of hunker down on their spending and going out to eat? So that's what we're going be watching going forward, keeping an eye on cash market values. Because if that long term uptrend line support fails, that's just going to trigger more technical selling, which would be a cue for those fund traders to pitch and exit and dump those long positions that they have on live cattle futures and feeder cattle futures. So we gotta be watching that.
Todd Gleason: 07:17We'll talk to you Thursday afternoon for commodity week. Thanks for doing that show too.
Naomi Blohm: 07:21Thank you.
Todd Gleason: 07:21That is Naomi Bloom. She is with total farm marketing dot com. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. The music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the first weekly crop progress report of the season.
Todd Gleason: 07:49It shows two percent of the corn crop around the nation has been planted. The rolling five year average is also 2% were led by Texas. It is 59% planted. Now here are the statisticians from across the Midwest with updates from their regions.
Melissa Couch: 08:08This is Melissa Couch, agricultural statistician for the USDA, Nassau field office. Minimal fieldwork was done during the week, but some producers were able to plant oats, apply anhydrous, and dry fertilizer. Topsoil moisture condition rate is 6% very short, 22% short, 68% adequate, and 4% surplus. Subsoil moisture condition rated 10% very short, 34% short, 55% adequate, and 1% surplus. Oats seeding reached 20% complete, eight days behind last year, but two days ahead of the five year average.
Melissa Couch: 08:45Boats emerged to reach 2%. Calving was in full swing with reports of mud in some areas. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Iowa. For the USDA NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office, this is Melissa Couch.
Brad Summa: 09:01Hello, everyone. This is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland Region, and this is the Illinois crop progress and condition report for the week ending Sunday, April 6. Things are off to kind of a slow start due to the cooler temperatures and recent rains we've had, but I'm sure things will will pick up quickly. Statewide, the average temperature was 47.2 degrees, which was point one degrees below normal. The precipitation average across the state was 3.39 inches which was 2.71 inches above normal.
Brad Summa: 09:34Topsoil moisture supply is now rated at 1% very short, 11% short, 54% adequate, 34% surplus. Subsoil moisture supply was rated at 1% very short, 31% short, 45% adequate, and 23% surplus. Soybeans planted has reached 1%, just getting started out there, and no progress to speak of for corn just yet. The winter wheat condition was rated 2% very poor, 35% fair, 55% good, and 8% excellent. For our Illinois cattlemen, the pasture condition was rated 6% very poor, 16% poor, 35% fair, 32% good, and 11% excellent.
Brad Summa: 10:21Again, this is Brad Summa. I look forward to updating you next week at this time, and I hope you have a great week.
Dan Loftus: 10:28Dan Loftus, Minnesota State Statistician for the USDA NASS Minnesota Field Office. Widespread rain and record snowfall in some areas limited Minnesota farmers to one point zero days suitable for fieldwork during the week. Field activities where feasible included fertilizer and mineral applications and tillage. Livestock were doing well with calving continuing. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 4% very short, 28% short, 58% adequate and 10% surplus.
Dan Loftus: 10:54Subsoil moisture supplies rated 6% very short, 43 short, 47% adequate, and 4% surplus. Oats planted was at 2% complete, about two weeks behind last year and two days behind the five year average. For the USDA NASS Minnesota Field Office, this is Dan Loftus.
Nathaniel Warenski: 11:12I am Nathaniel Wernske with USDA NASS. This week, Indiana topsoil moisture rated 89% adequate to surplus. Subsoil moisture 82% adequate to surplus. Days suitable to field work was limited to one day due to tornadoes, rain, and flooding. Winner weed jointed is at 4% behind the five year average.
Nathaniel Warenski: 11:34The crop was rated at 68% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and condition across the state of Indiana. I am Nathaniel Wernske for USDA NASS.
Todd Gleason: 11:45Our thanks go to the statisticians for their weekly updates of crop progress across the Midwest. University Of Illinois Extension Agronomist Giovanni Preza Fontes and his emeritus colleague Emerson Nafziger have posted an article to the Crop Central website. It's also on our website at wilag.org. Gio, thank you for being with us today. Really like the title of this article, have we missed the best planting window for 2025?
Todd Gleason: 12:29However, I'm wondering what really you and Emerson were thinking about.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 12:35Yeah. I think the title, you know, have we missed the best planning win for 2025. If you read it in early April, you might be thinking about what these guys are talking about because, we don't usually start planning until mid mid April. You know, weather conditions were were kind of warm and dry by mid March that we've we've seen a few fields getting planted. And with the weather turning when we we started April, right, I think it's a good time that we can kind of thinking about some of the considerations that we may need to keep in mind when we, you know, wait for for better soil and weather conditions when we before we decide when to start planning.
Todd Gleason: 13:19So farmers will be fully aware as is the case this week that cold weather can arrive in April. You and Emerson went through some data and background history. Can you give me some of that please?
Giovana Preza Fontes: 13:32Yeah. Sure. Yeah. Just a quick reminding that, you know, spring freeze probabilities remain relatively high early April. Right?
Giovana Preza Fontes: 13:40So we we retrieve data from the thirty year normal. I mean, the past thirty years to look at the probability of spring frost in Illinois. So we kind of looked at Bellevue as kind of a Southern Illinois, Champaign, Central Illinois, and we looked at the weather at DeKalb as kind of a Northern Illinois location. And overall, we still see that, you know, there's still a 50% probability of a spring frost by by by the April '20 in Illinois. And we don't actually have to go back to kind of remember when that happened last.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 14:21I think everybody will kind of remember that we we saw a frost in 2021 that came about mid April. Right? So in 2021, conditions were so nice in the first two weeks of April that we saw a lot of planting happening, and then a cold front came and dropped temperatures below freezing for for ten days. And for those fields that were planted early and the crop had emerged, we saw some cross damage. And we even showed an example of a planting day trial that we had at Malmo's in that year where, especially for corn, we saw about a 12 bushels per acre yield penalty from a planting date on April 6 compared to a when we planted on April 22, and that was because the frost damage came and we lost some sand on those fields.
Todd Gleason: 15:18I made note in the article that the data from 2021 showed the best planting date for soybeans was May 7, though it was only a half a bushel better than the April 22 planting date.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 15:30And you know that's kind of not unusual. I mean we have years of data on planting date and sometimes we've seen relatively very little yield response, especially with soybeans. So yeah, if you think about soybeans, we probably lost some stand there due to the frost with the early planting right so the the first planting was on April 2 but 2021 was also very good later in the season and folks will remember that's when we set the new record for soybean use in Illinois of about 64 bushels per acre. So we know that soybean they they do a better job in terms of compensating for low sand than corn. So I think that's why we think that yields were worse lower, but not very significantly compared to to April 22 and and May 7.
Todd Gleason: 16:23There is, some information here I think farmers will need to be reminded of, because planting dates have been pushed forward. You do talk a little bit about soil conditions, and wet weather, cool weather combined, and what that means is it's related to planting, cool temperatures apparently not that big a deal, something of it, but cool and wet causes an issue.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 16:49Yeah. Exactly. And, you know, like, when we start getting into April, I think we're starting thinking about planting time and, you know, there is an easy to be out in the field and start work and planning. And I think sometimes we may be overly fixated on having the crop planted by a specific calendar date. The idea here is that, you know, early planting is still good, right?
Giovana Preza Fontes: 17:15It's we know the potential benefits of early planting, but there are other things that we need to keep in mind. And I think soil conditions at planting and after planting, it's very important to keep in mind. Cold soils by itself it doesn't necessarily pose a threat to corn and soybean seeds but the problem gets when the soil is cold and wet. Then we start having increased risk of seedling or seed damages by pathogen infection or insects feeding on the on the seeds. And we talked about the inhibition of chilling injury, which is when the soybeans emerge and they you know when they absorb water to emerge if that water is cold then that's when we see some of those chilling injury.
Todd Gleason: 18:06And finally, you ask at the end of this article for producers who have planted in March, early April too, I suppose, the first couple of days, to let you know what the condition of that crop looks like, what kind of issues they've had. How can they reach out to you?
Giovana Preza Fontes: 18:23We talked about, as a test blog, we did plant corn and soybeans at the Ore Research Center near Perrin. Right? We planted on March 1326. We showed a couple of pictures from some of the seedlings that we dug out. And, yeah, we know some other fields have been planted.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 18:42And if if farmers would like to reach out to us, they can email me or Emerson and, let us know how the the feed the crop conditions are. We are interesting to kind of learn more about, you know, the resiliency of, you know, this when you think about modern genetics. We yeah. We're interesting to know how those fields are are, if they have any issue issue with emergence establishment or any frost injuries because we it's in the forecast to get below freezing, I think early next week. So again, just to let us know, I guess that will will give us a better idea how how early and how the corn and soybean can can resist to those environments.
Todd Gleason: 19:31You can always email Emerson or Gio. You can do that. Look for them in the crop sciences web page at the University of Illinois, or you can go to willag.org, scroll down, and you'll find my name and email address, and I'll be glad to forward that on to the both of them. So it's easy enough to do. Gio, thank you so much for being with us.
Todd Gleason: 19:53I appreciate it.
Giovana Preza Fontes: 19:54Well, thanks, thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason: 19:56Gio Prezifontes is the extension agronomist at the University of Illinois, joined us here on Illinois Public Media's closing market report. Let's check now the weather forecast with Don Day. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don. Thanks for being with us.
Todd Gleason: 20:25I tell you that we're behind in planting in The United States, but we're not as we heard from the statisticians. Just 2% along for corn, and that's normal, but it was a really wild last seven days. Can you tell me about it, and the weather?
Don Day: 20:42Well, yeah, obviously, we had all the flooding. You know, we had some areas, over the last week picking up well over 12 inches of rainfall across Southeast Missouri, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas, and as much as three to six inches above average for the week. Now that's just for the week across the southern tier of Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois. And we're gonna obviously, it's gonna take a while for those areas to dry out. Then, of course, we had the cold come in behind the system.
Don Day: 21:12We had snow all the way down to the Rio Grande this past weekend. So a lot of areas here to start the week have woken up to some frost and some very chilly temperatures. But the pattern is gonna kinda take a pause here, catch its breath. And for a lot of the Central United States, the next five to seven days, there won't be a lot of weather. We will return to temperatures that will be warming up back to springtime levels.
Todd Gleason: 21:37It won't be drying temperatures in Lesler's wind with it. Is the wind still in play?
Don Day: 21:44Well, the wind is gonna be picking up with a little bit of this temperature change, but I tell you, it's not gonna be a lot until maybe the weekend. Once we get into the weekend, I do see some winds picking up. You know, we could see winds as much as 30 miles, 40 miles an hour as early as Friday at the end of the weekend. So help is on the way with the wind to dry some of that part of The US out, but it's gonna take a few days to get here.
Todd Gleason: 22:09What does next week look like? And then if you can give us a forecast maybe for the following week. I know it gets harder the further out you go.
Don Day: 22:15Well, let's take us through the next Tuesday. The the amount of rainfall is gonna generally be light to moderate at most, mainly in the Eastern Side of the Corn Belt. As we get into the second week, as we get into, let's say, approaching Easter weekend, and then the days after that is likely the next round of heavier precipitation. Nothing like what we just experienced, but getting back into a more active pattern of showers and thunderstorms. And I think that's something that starting just before Easter weekend, probably all the way up to the May 1, is expect that ten day period to likely be getting colder and wetter again.
Todd Gleason: 22:53Thank you very much, welcome. Don Day is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media. We're online at willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason: 23:07I'm extensions Todd Gleason.