- Ben Brown, University of Missouri
From the Linn to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the April 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. We'll hear more about trade with Ben Brown, and usually, we discuss the weather forecast with Mark Russo. He's out of the office, but I'll give you an update of the Corn Belt weather on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media.
Speaker 1: 00:28It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen at willag.org. That's willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at four eighty one and three quarters. That was a half lower.
Speaker 1: 00:54July at $4.90 down a quarter. December, '4 '60 '4 and a half, a penny and a half lower. And May soybeans today, 7¢ lower. Finished at $10.29 and a half. July 10 40 1 and a half down 6 and a quarter.
Speaker 1: 01:07November beans at $10.25 and 3 quarters down six and three quarters as well. Bean meal futures off $2.70. The bean oil, down a nickel, and the wheat futures in the soft red July at $5.52 and a quarter, a dime lower. The hard red harvest month, July, down six and a quarter. It finished at $5.63 and 3 quarters of a cent.
Speaker 1: 01:29Live cattle futures at $203.75, down 32 and a half cents. Feeder cattle at $2.89 15, down a dollar 72 and a half, and lean hogs for a hundred pounds, 2 and a half cents higher at $98.05. Crude oil futures at $62.28 a barrel at this hour, down a dollar 72. Diesel fuel, four and seven tenths lower, $2 and 6 and a half cents a gallon. And the wholesale price of gasoline today, just about 4¢ lower at $22 and a nickel for the afternoon.
Speaker 1: 02:01The S and P 500 is around a 74, 70 five points lower, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 1,248 points at 38,000 or thereabouts. We're now joined by Kurt Kimmel with AgMarket.net to discuss the marketplace. Let's start with that Dow and the S and P five hundred. What's happening in the markets today?
Speaker 2: 02:26Well, just, talk about the administration maybe doing removing, the Fed Chairman Powell and that sent the dollar sharply lower and just kinda shook up the financial sector. Market does not like change, and so it was kind of a, sloppy trade, throughout the session here. I imagine it'll stay soft here, for quite some time. US market's kinda slow in the most part. It is Easter Monday around the world, so there's some other exchanges of currencies, countries not trading.
Speaker 2: 03:05So it'll be interesting to see if we see some follow through as we move through the week here. As far as the grain market go, kind of light volume also there. We sold, saw the funds sell about 1,100 wheat and about 1,200 meal, 400 bean oil, and they were sellers about 1,600 contracts of soybeans, flat in the corn. So just kind of a slow, sloppy lower day clear across the whole whole sector, full board.
Speaker 1: 03:37What are the expectations for this afternoon's weekly crop progress numbers? Do you have those with you?
Speaker 2: 03:42I did not get the actual trade estimates, but they feel we're gonna be fairly close to average from the standpoint we had a huge jump. Just about everybody was rolling ahead of this weekend here. Western Belt, particularly Iowa, was, going to be ahead of schedule. They've missed quite a bit of this, rain activity. Of course, the Ohio River Valley and Delta did not make much headway but they had a fairly aggressive, start.
Speaker 2: 04:11So, as far as planning progress, if this weather stays wet, I'd say, you know, another week or two might be a concern but they're just talking to these guys. There's some, areas, fairly well getting close to being done. So they can cover a lot of ground in a hurry, but we'll see how the numbers fall according to trade expectations here at 03:00, Todd.
Speaker 1: 04:33It appears that the export inspections were fairly good this morning.
Speaker 2: 04:37Yeah. We actually, had, continued movement out. We shipped out, 1,700,000 metric tons of corn, 551,000 tons of beans, and 510,000 tons of wheat. I imagine these shipments are gonna be fairly active with this tariff talk around, for those who've purchased one of the, get stuff purchased and and moved for the most part, there's fairly good demand. That's what's been supporting the core market, particularly, exports continue to really run strong, domestic, consumption continues to remain fairly stout too.
Speaker 2: 05:15So we'll see how the sales go, but overall demand's hanging in there for all this tariff news.
Speaker 1: 05:21And we'll talk about this just a bit later in the program with Ben Brown, but the port fees that the Trump administration had proposed earlier, they scaled back. That looked like it was going to be fairly good for agriculture as the bulk supply ships generally come in empty, and they don't expect to put a fee on them. Otherwise, it might have had a real impact on basis, I would think. I'm assuming that most have been relieved by that news.
Speaker 2: 05:48Well, this news changes consistently, but yes, any help on keeping the cost down is beneficial. And now you go down to what type of transportation is involved, on that, whether it's container or bulk. And so we'll see how, this all unfolds here for sure. But a lot of this is still in the discovery process, and the way I understand is it's still gonna be a couple months out before it's implemented. But, this whole trade issue, fees, there's just a lot of moving parts all around the world here at the moment.
Speaker 1: 06:28How do producers manage that risk when it's unclear what the risk might be and how detrimental it could be or the impact which if we have settlements in the trade trade and tariff wars, and we end up with agreements with some primary countries, Canada and Mexico, I'm thinking about, things could turn quickly to the other direction. How how do you manage risk for producers in both directions?
Speaker 2: 06:57Yeah, that's been the top subject here because there's considerable risk either way and through here, but as far as old crop, producers have done a fantastic job of moving the old crop. Old crop is fairly well moved, so we've eliminated most of that risk. Then what we've done as a team here, we've come in and replaced some ownership with some, call options. So if the market does take off, we're on board in through here and don't feel like we sold, too low for the most part and we can use these as courage calls. So as we move higher, we can make some timely, cash sales.
Speaker 2: 07:33So there's unique tools out there that you can use to keep you very flexible in your marketing. New crop, is, gonna be the challenge here as we move forward here, Todd.
Speaker 1: 07:46Kurt, can you look back at last week's cattle on feed report for me, please?
Speaker 2: 07:50Cattle on feed report, about the smallest number since 1950 or something like that, and some of the beef, associations talk about national security letting our meat supply fairly tight or low end through here, The cattle and feed report, about as expected, 98%, placed 105 and markings 101. The beef sector just takes a long, long time to replenish itself, the reproductive cycle. It's a long, long term commitment. So, that that's gonna be the key to watch as we move forward here. But cookout featuring is just around the corner.
Speaker 2: 08:35If you can't quite grasp the cost of a big old rib eye, I imagine, we'll see some pork loins and even, chicken breasts on sale here as we go into the Memorial Day holiday. Hey. Thank you much, Kurt. You bet. Take care.
Speaker 1: 08:50You too. Kurt Kimmel is with AgMarket dot net. I'd like to take you back now to last Friday's the twenty first show. It's a production of Illinois Public Media. Jane Carlson from WIUM, that's the Tri State's public radio station out of Macomb, Illinois, where Western Illinois University is located, joined the program and was discussing the Smithfield pork processing plant in Monmouth outside of Galesburg.
Speaker 1: 09:26She was asked about the Trump administration's immigration policies on the plant.
Speaker 3: 09:30Monmouth, Illinois is a a city between Gaithersburg and Macomb, has about 9,000 residents, and the major employer there is a Smithfield Foods pork processing plant. And there are some Haitian immigrants who work at that plant who who came here as refugees who have received letters from the federal government that they need to leave by a certain date. There are dozens of languages that are spoken in in Monmouth schools because of the pork plant and because of the number of immigrants and refugees who have come to the community, purchased homes, etcetera. So really leading the efforts to, advocate for these Haitian immigrants in Monmouth are religious leaders. First Lutheran Church in Monmouth, coordinated with a couple other faith leaders to hold a prayer service last week.
Speaker 3: 10:18They say that they've exhausted their legal advocacy, and all that's left to do for these immigrants that are being told to leave is pray.
Speaker 1: 10:26The Smithfield Foods pork processing plant in Monmouth represents approximately 3% of The US fresh pork supply. In 2020, the last set of employment figures that I could find, it employed approximately 1,700 people in the area. On this Monday, we're joined by Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. He's with Extension, an ag economist there with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. Hi, Ben.
Speaker 1: 11:08Thanks for being with us. I hear that last week, FAPRI had its annual ten year look ahead conference. What can you tell me about
Speaker 4: 11:15it? Sure. Yeah. So every year, the FAPRI team here at Missouri, we we put forth our our baseline estimates of crops and livestock prices over the next, ten years. That's what we use for farm bill scoring purposes.
Speaker 4: 11:30And kind of the takeaway a little bit was livestock prices remain high. Of course, there's been an increase in non feed costs for livestock producers, insurance, hauling costs, yardage fees and stuff like that, that have kind of eaten into some of those margins. On the crop side, we continue to see pressure, margin pressure has been reported pretty extensively across the Midwest. And so, you know, that story kind of matched what we had and we talked a little bit about what policies out there could come into play that changed this picture. And there are a lot of policies, whether it be biofuel policy or trade policy or non tariff policies around shipping, that's been in the news a lot, these fees on ocean going vessels.
Speaker 4: 12:16So we talked about all that and just had a lot of really good discussion about how the industry can support producers and food costs as well.
Speaker 1: 12:24So as you think about policies that are in place, I do wanna take one up. The port fees, which the Trump administration rolled out and the industry widely panned. The Trump administration pulled back, took some time to think about it, rolled a new set out last week. And it appears that agriculture, because those, Chinese flagged or owned vessels are are coming in, the bulk carriers or at least empty, will not be charged to port fee. North Dakota State had said that would have put 40 to 60¢ a bushel on corn, soybeans, or wheat in basis depreciation that is.
Speaker 1: 13:07What more do you know about those port fees?
Speaker 4: 13:11I'll just step back here and say that, you know, this this has been an area of of question about needing some more clarity to understand exactly what's gonna happen in this space. For listeners out there, this is what we call a non tariff barrier. So it's not a a straight, you know, tariff on a on an import, but it is a factor that changes trade flows potentially or adds, you know, transportation cost. At the beginning of the month, a couple of faculty and I here at the University of Missouri, we took a group of students to St. Louis with companies.
Speaker 4: 13:46And and, you know, the purpose of the trip was really to expose students to, you know, industry decision making, get an insight in terms of how decisions are made, career paths, and stuff like that. But the students had a lot of questions around trade policy. They hear it a lot in the news. They talk a lot about it. So they had a lot of questions for industry representatives on how the tariffs were impacting their businesses and the decisions that they make.
Speaker 4: 14:08And nearly every company we met with, which we met with several of them, nearly every company said, yeah, the tariffs are one thing, but we can largely, you know, like we've been through this before, we kinda know how we have a good idea of how tariffs are gonna impact the business. The big unknown and the thing they kept pivoting to is like, let's talk about these ship fees. And many of them said this was this was the biggest issue they were worried about was how this was was potentially gonna roll out. And so we did get some clarity, as you mentioned, we did get some clarity on this last week and there are several exemptions that do favor the ag industry. If a ship comes to a port empty, it is not charged to take product away from The United States for a lot of our bulk goods like corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton rice.
Speaker 4: 14:52That's how those ships are largely operated today. The ships come. There is some examples of when they bring product to The US like fertilizers, bulk fertilizers and stuff like They take grain and product away. But largely they're empty. And so that was that was something that does favor the bulk commodities industry.
Speaker 4: 15:14The one that still probably is hanging out there that that is, you know, potential impact is is in the meat industry. So a lot of our meat products, go out through the Port Of Houston. They go out through the Port Of Oakland. You know, those ships are what we call backbills in a lot of ways. So ships come over from from an international destination, carrying consumer products, clothing, technology.
Speaker 4: 15:34They they dump those forward or they upload those at one port, and then they move to another port to pick up the meat products before they go back. And so this was an area that The US meat industry was was specifically worried about because, I use the West Coast as an example, those ships bringing product over dock in in, you know, Long Beach and and San Diego and LA, and then they go up the coast to Oakland to pick up product and leave. The initial version of the rule signaled that ships would be charged a port call fee at each stop, both in Southern California and then in Oakland. And and the new ruling is not. It's just for for leg, for for transportation or trip, whatever you wanna call it.
Speaker 4: 16:14And so I think the meat industry is breathing a little sigh of relief, but there still is some challenge because those ships are coming over with product. So they're still gonna be assessed those fees, but it'll be shared kind of between the the exporter, the importers, and probably US Producers as well.
Speaker 1: 16:28Can US Producers afford to have that happen?
Speaker 4: 16:31Well, so, I mean, that's, I guess, a value judgment in some ways. Over time, what we've seen is that as transportation costs increase, whatever the increase may be, maybe higher fuel prices, or whatever, right? Like, increases the transportation costs, it's it's split between the exporter and the importer. But there are times when the importer pays a higher share than the exporter, and there are times when the exporter pays more than, you know, the higher share than or so like it it differ over time. We've seen that fluctuate.
Speaker 4: 17:00The the thing, you know, for for US Meat Producers is depending on the product, you know, we export more of of certain protein products than others. And so, you know, some industries will have a bigger impact than others. And in some cases, we have more market share power than than others. And so, you know, the true economic answer of it depends really comes into play here. But certainly, it's something The US meat industry has been looking at in terms of how does this impact not only transportation cost, but then the price of the product that's sold by US producers.
Speaker 1: 17:32Finally, I know you're watching, these S and D tables for corn, soybeans, and wheat, you're thinking about the numbers that are rolling in. Exports for corn have been strong, and I'm wondering what crush looks like for soybeans and how you evaluate both of those.
Speaker 4: 17:49Well, so we finally saw, and I shouldn't say finally, had a really disastrous month in February of soybean, and maybe disastrous isn't the word I should use, but, you know, in February, you know, soybean crush declined pretty sharply month over month as we had been hearing of rumors of plants slowing down their crush facility and other reasons, whether it be cold spout that caused natural gas to to be needed in residential. So we saw a slowdown that that rebounded in March. So I think that was a sign of relief, I think, for soybean producers that demand was kind of hanging in there, even though it is down compared to what we saw at the back end of twenty twenty four. So that's that's on the soybean crush side. For the export side, we've seen a nice run here lately of of grains, in the export market.
Speaker 4: 18:38Sales have been have been strong, this week for export inspections, both corn and wheat came in above ex pre report expectations. And so the export picture has been remaining, a bright spot even amongst all this uncertainty in the the international trade environment. So, you know, we just we keep watching. We keep looking at who's buying. That's always the best signal of of, I guess, business, intentions is if they keep buying and keep spending money, that's that's a good sign, and and we keep watching that.
Speaker 4: 19:11And, who's buying and where they're buying product from is is also really important. And so far, you know, buyers have continued to be, in The US export space, so that's that's been good for US Producers.
Speaker 1: 19:24Ben Brown is an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri with FAPRI, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org. We've been serving agriculture with this program since January of nineteen eighty five for forty years, some 30,000 interviews. Thank you for listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Well, as I told you upfront that Mark Russo from Everstream Analytics is out of the office for the day, I thought it would be good to check-in on the weather forecast around the Corn Belt to see how things might proceed for planting this week.
Speaker 1: 20:24We'll start in Grand Island, Nebraska, where they have a high today on sunny skies of 80 degrees, 75, and mostly sunny tomorrow. A 60% chance of rainfall after some sunshine on Wednesday, 85% chance of rainfall on Thursday, and Friday, it'd be partly sunny. Things cool off by the end of the week there in Grand Island down to 62 degrees. Fargo, North Dakota starts the week with some rainfall, and then things turn sunny, and then they go wet again by the time we get to Thursday, and they'll be down to 62 degrees again on Friday as well. Mankato, Minnesota.
Speaker 1: 21:08Let's check out what they've got going on today. Mostly sunny skies, 66 degrees, 73, partly sunny tomorrow. Just a 25% chance of rainfall there on Wednesday. It'll be 71. Thursday, 68, and it's likely to rain.
Speaker 1: 21:2275% chance of showers in Mankato, Minnesota. Partly sunny on Friday under sunny skies again and 62 degrees. Des Moines, Iowa today, sunny skies, 68. Tomorrow, 40% chance of thunderstorms. Some light rain showers, 75 degrees.
Speaker 1: 21:40Wednesday, 75, and a 55% chance of rain showers, though it'll be partly sunny. Partly sunny on Thursday as well, 73, a 70% chance of showers then, and some thunderstorms maybe on Friday. They'll drop back to 66 degrees by then. In, Rockford, Illinois, in the northern part of the state, Really breezy today, 55 degrees, 68 with a 35% chance of rainfall tomorrow. Rain on, Wednesday in 75, and Thursday, a 35% chance of showers, 75 degrees.
Speaker 1: 22:13Friday, 55% chance of showers and 68 degrees. That's in Rockford. Let's go to the center of the state in Springfield where today, 64 and partly sunny. Tomorrow, 77 and mostly sunny. Wednesday, partly sunny and 80.
Speaker 1: 22:29And then finally on Thursday, 80 degrees and 35% chance of rainfall. Friday, 75% chance of rain, and partly sunny skies. And let's finally turn our attention to the Southern part of Illinois in Mount Vernon. It's 73 under partly sunny skies today. Tomorrow, 77, mostly sunny.
Speaker 1: 22:49Wednesday, 80 and partly sunny. Thursday, a 60% chance of rainfall and partly sunny skies otherwise, and then 77 degrees, a 90% chance of rain in Southern Illinois on Friday. You've been listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. You have a good afternoon.