Apr 22 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the April 2025. It's Earth Day. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloom from TotalFarmMarketing.com. She's in West Bend, Wisconsin.

Todd Gleason: 00:19

And then a bit later in the program, we'll discuss big data. We'll actually hear from USDA's Rod Bain about big data and how it is transitioning into the farm in a new and different way that hopefully will be cross platform and open in a way that makes it both available and secure. And then as we wrap up our time together, we'll take up the weather forecast with Don Day of Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Oh, and along the way, we'll hear from the state statisticians in Iowa, in Minnesota, in Illinois, and Indiana about crop conditions in their regions all on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world.

Todd Gleason: 01:07

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.75 and 3 quarters, 6¢ lower. July at $4.83 and a quarter a bushel, down six and three quarters. And new crop December corn, $4.58, down 6 and a half cents. May soybeans, five and a half higher at $10.35.

Todd Gleason: 01:29

July 10 40 6, up four and a half, and new crop November at $10.26 and a half, 3 quarters of a cent higher. Bean meal at $2.91 90, a dollar lower. The bean oil at $47.58, down 24¢. Soft red winter wheat in the July to lower at $5.50 and a quarter. The hard red at $5.58 and a quarter down 5 and a half cents.

Todd Gleason: 01:51

Live cattle futures $2.52 and a half higher. Feeder cattle up $2.10, and lean hogs at $2 and 22 and a half cents higher on this Tuesday afternoon. Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com in West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us on a Tuesday to discuss the marketplace. Look like, there was trade happening, though it's been quieter, than it has been in recent weeks and months, I suppose. Naomi, tell me about what you saw in Chicago.

Naomi Blohm: 02:22

Yeah. So looking at grain markets, for the past few days, the corn and bean prices have been up near some shorter term resistance levels. And just without any lack of, you know, strong friendly news to take prices through those short term resistance levels, seeing some back and fill action today for corn, finishing about, six, seven lower. Beans gonna be finishing on the positive side, but still range bound. I think traders were keeping an eye on the crop progress report, which yesterday showed that 12% of The US corn is planted just a little bit ahead of the five year average of 10%, and beans are now 8% planted slightly above the five year average, which had been around 5%.

Naomi Blohm: 03:04

But as you know, a lot of folks excited to plant beans earlier than in years past, so we've got to balance that as well. But it's been a pretty quiet market day for a Tuesday. Not too many things happening with outside markets either.

Todd Gleason: 03:19

As you look forward to the month of May, of course, we'll have the new crop supply and demand tables due out, I believe, on Monday. It feels like it's the eleventh, but I didn't check the date. Can you tell me what your expectations might be?

Naomi Blohm: 03:34

Yeah. So looking ahead to that, I think in general, a lot of times we can see that seasonal push higher for grain prices into early May, and then that MayWazdi point, to your point, oftentimes can be kind of a short term negative factor because the USDA will use the acres from the March 31 report, and then they'll throw in probably a record yield number and make it on paper look like everything is just hunk y dory and just fine. So a lot of times, grain prices have a tendency to retreat lower than after that May WASDE report until we get some excitement with a summer weather scare or heat coming in the forecast that makes the market price work down a little higher into the May after that fallback. So, I'm kinda guessing that that's what's gonna happen again this year. But, all of the weather forecasts are gonna be paramount here going forward, and we'll keep an eye on weekly export sales later this week to see how demand is going, and, of course, keeping an eye on all of the geopolitical news.

Todd Gleason: 04:40

It is always interesting in May to see what USDA does do with acreage because once in a while, if things are late enough, it will manage to adjust yield. It won't change acreage at that point, but it might adjust yield down. And the twelfth day of the month, every month is the last day that they can release or will release a world ag supply and demand estimate. It's released on one of five days, the eighth, the ninth, the tenth, the eleventh, or the twelfth. And I checked.

Todd Gleason: 05:09

It's not the eleventh. It is Monday, the twelfth. So they'll have time to take a look at that, which means, as you suggested, that the weather will be really important. The other place that weather remains very important is with the sofrino or South American corn crop. It managed to get into the April in pretty good shape at this point.

Todd Gleason: 05:32

It's Earth Day, the twenty second. They're still getting rainfall there, and I'm wondering how concerned that has you you you are now, about the size of that crop.

Naomi Blohm: 05:43

Well, I would say this. I don't think it's gonna be anything larger than is currently projected because the USDA has it as a sizable crop. The fact that the weather has been good down there is, I think, part of the reason why corn prices here have not been able to clear that $5 value level in the short term. But I did I think also, though, you know, if we have that record crop, good. The world needs it because corn demand is that strong, and we'll still have some potential tighter carryout situations until we get our crop that's just getting planted now fully harvested.

Naomi Blohm: 06:22

So there's a lot of weather to watch not only between South America but here in The United States as well, and some of the weather forecasters still harping about the potential for drought this summer. I heard it from two different sources today that they're still looking for a hot and dry summer in The US, primarily for the Western Midwest. And so that could, you know, just really zap the potential for a record yield here and keep corn prices supported here in the short term.

Todd Gleason: 06:49

We've had a couple of days to look at the cattle on feed report. How did the markets react to begin with, and are they following through? And what in what, has, you concerned about the size of the herd in The United States, if anything?

Naomi Blohm: 07:04

Well, market prices since that report came out, we have been able to see the marketplace kinda go sneaking back up and retesting the highs from early April on the live cattle side. On the feeder cattle side, though, something really important to note was that yesterday, the August feeder cattle contract post a bearish key reversal after testing a shorter term downtrend line. Today was an inside trading day, again, testing that downtrend line. We filled gaps. So if the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle complex, if they cannot find any big new news this week on demand or stronger cash, we might see the market have a simple correction lower.

Naomi Blohm: 07:47

Actually, seasonally, that is a tendency to have is a tendency for what occurs seasonally, cattle prices work a little bit lower until about the May before having a recovery rally higher. So if we don't get any friendly news this week, just look for a simple back and fill action. Overall, the trend on the long term charts, though, still remains higher.

Todd Gleason: 08:09

Anything else before I let you go?

Naomi Blohm: 08:11

Well, again, not really specifically, but we have to always keep one eye on all the geopolitical news that's out there. There were some thoughts that maybe we're going to be having some better news coming with China and trade. That came over the newswire just a little while ago from US Treasury Secretary, so we can see if there's any follow through good news with that, and, keep an eye on the weather and markets. You bet.

Todd Gleason: 08:38

Thank you much, Naomi.

Naomi Blohm: 08:39

Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 08:40

That's Naomi Bloom. We talk with her each Tuesday. She is with TotalFarmMarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. In today's agricultural news, USDA layoffs and office consolidations are raising bipartisan concern in Congress. Staffing levels could be paired by nearly 10% or some 9,000 starting by early May, with remaining staff relocated to three hubs around the country.

Todd Gleason: 09:12

That's according to briefed USDA officials who are cited in a report by the government executive, a government business news daily. The layoffs and office consolidations are raising big concerns in farm country and with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, like top house ag democrat Angie Craig of Minnesota.

Angie Craig: 09:33

In Minnesota, and I know across this country, haphazard layoffs at USDA are jeopardizing our ability to serve farmers and keep our ag system the safest and most productive in the world.

Todd Gleason: 09:45

Secretary Brooke Rollins has stressed staff cuts will target duplicative support roles and unneeded management layers that as some DC offices are moved closer to farmers, ranchers, and foresters, minimizing USDA's capital region footprint. Longtime GOP senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa is slow to pass judgment but is also concerned.

Charles Grassley: 10:08

It is of concern, but I'd have to study to see how farmers are being served. But we think that rural America can't be left out just because of rural America.

Todd Gleason: 10:20

FSA office consolidations and ERS and NIFA relocations sparked objections in 2019, while new staffing cuts await agencies like NRCS and the Forest Service. Government executive reported NRCS received billions of dollars through the climate related inflation reduction act targeted by the White House, reversing IRA boosted staff levels is a stated goal that would cut nearly a quarter of NRCS staff. And that's a look. Today's Agricultural News. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly crop progress report.

Todd Gleason: 11:07

It shows 12% of the corn crop around the nation has been planted, 10% is the rolling five year average. Of that crop, 2% has emerged. That's on pace with the five year average. 8% of the soybeans have been sown, 5% is the rolling five year average and winter wheat is headed at the rate of 15% across the nation. 13% the five year average.

Todd Gleason: 11:31

The condition of that crop said to be 38% good and 7% excellent. That's down from the 416% in the previous week. Now here are statisticians from across the Midwest with updates from their regions.

IA NASS: 11:47

This is Rebecca Alter, agricultural statistician for the USDA Nass Iowa field office. Planters were rolling across much of the state before being slowed by precipitation. In addition to planting corn, soybeans, and oats, fieldwork included tiling, building waterways, and spraying when winds allowed. Topsoy moisture condition rated 6% very short, 22% short, 69% adequate, and 3% surplus. Corn planted reached 18%, three days ahead of last year and five days ahead of the five year average.

IA NASS: 12:24

11% of the expected soybean crop has been planted, three days ahead of last year and one week ahead of the five year average. Oats seeding reached 68% complete, five days behind last year but three days ahead of the five year average. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Iowa. For the USDA NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office, this is Rebecca Alter.

IL NASS: 12:53

Hello, everyone. This is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland region, and this is the Illinois crop progress and condition report. Top soil moisture supply was rated 1% very short, 7% short, 72% adequate and 20% surplus. Corn planted has now reached 7% compared to the five year average of 11 And for our Illinois soybean crop, it has now reached 10% planted compared to the five year average of seven. The winter wheat across Illinois is now headed in 5% of the fields compared to the five year average of six.

IL NASS: 13:28

And the winter wheat condition was rated 1% very poor, 6% poor, 38% fair, and 49% good, and 6% excellent. For the Illinois Cattlemen, the pasture condition was rated 3% poor, 33% fair, 40% good and 24% excellent. Again, this is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland region serving the farmers and ranchers in Missouri and Illinois. Have a great week everyone.

IN NASS: 13:57

I'm Nathaniel Wernske with USDA NASS. This week, Indiana topsoil moisture rated 92% adequate to surplus, soil moisture 84% adequate to surplus. Corn and soybean planted started with 2% of the corn crop planted and 3% of the soybean crop planted. Winter wheat jointed was at 30% behind last year and the five year average. Winter wheat headed was at 1%.

IN NASS: 14:23

The crop was rated as 69% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and condition across the state of Indiana. I am Nathaniel Wernske for USDA NASS.

Todd Gleason: 14:35

One other state to update, the number four corn producing state in the nation is Minnesota. Corn planting ramped up there, especially in the southern part of the state, while farmers in the state saw just four point one days suitable for fieldwork during the week. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 4% very short, 20% short, 62% adequate, and 7% surplus. Corn planting was at 9% complete across Minnesota compared to 7% last year. The five year average is 4%.

Todd Gleason: 15:07

Soybeans were sown at the pace of 3%, a couple of days behind last year, but ahead of the five year average of 1%. Our thanks go to the statisticians for their weekly updates of crop progress across the nation. The Closing Market Report is a production of Illinois Public Media It's public radio for the farming world. Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County Farmer, Tim Gleason. Up next, we'll explore big data.

Todd Gleason: 15:41

It continues to grow as part of ag operations, whether in the field, the research lab, or through some resource offering. How far has ag come in the development of big data, and what are some projects and programs that could feature big data in the future? USDA's Rod Bain takes

USDA Feature: 16:00

a look. Farmers, you might actually remember when the big data revolution started in agriculture.

USDA Feature: 16:07

Years ago, probably the initial source of big data was harvesters. Yield monitors were one of our first big data generation machines that we had on farm.

USDA Feature: 16:16

Ed Kendall Kirk of Clemson University also reminds us that with this first step in the evolution of big data on the farm took place.

USDA Feature: 16:24

The cloud computing opportunities where cost has gone down to enable some of that, those weren't there. Connectivity was not there.

USDA Feature: 16:30

So if a producer wanted data from their harvesters and their field monitor displays

USDA Feature: 16:35

It wasn't to put it on a jump drive. Instead, it was to put it on an SD card, and in some cases floppy drives even prior to that.

USDA Feature: 16:43

To say the systems of agricultural big data and the tools used to collect it have come a long way is perhaps an understatement, especially with advances in connectivity.

USDA Feature: 16:54

And all of a sudden now you've got not only data coming from a yield monitor that it shows you, for instance, during grain harvest, how much grain did you harvest from this area of the field versus that area of the field. But now we have sensors on our planters. We have sensors on our irrigation systems. We have soil moisture sensors that we install in the field. We have soil information that we collect with machines such as electrical conductivity.

USDA Feature: 17:17

Another evolution at big data has been how this information is managed. Kirk acknowledges that out of necessity, as technology advanced, most big data was collected initially through proprietary systems, proprietary as a company and by piece of equipment.

USDA Feature: 17:33

It's sort of been an organic growth of how it needed to develop, and now what we're seeing in the ag side is similar to what I think we've seen a lot of energy directed towards ISOBUS on connecting implements to tractors to where we have sort of standard communication across those machines, and we're starting to see the same thing on some of the data.

USDA Feature: 17:53

Research continues to advance compatibility of big data and expand available resources for all. One of those projects is called AG Stack. Kendall Kirk, Eclipse University, is among the research partners in this effort along with the Linux Foundation, IBM, and others. Samir Jahal of the Ag Stack Foundation says developing an easy accessible system to search for big data in the ag spectrum will require open source operating systems as a pre competitive foundation underneath applications.

USDA Feature: 18:26

Applications can be developed much cheaper and faster, so time to market and cost to market advantages are abound in the private

USDA Feature: 18:34

In addition, this would create interoperability among applications. In other words, the ability of farm based big data apps talking to each other, whether the source or program is private or public based. For instance

USDA Feature: 18:48

Equipment data from tractors and equipment for combines and such. There's also a lot of data besides that from different government agencies that is published. There's a whole bunch of data being published about from satellites that are published. There are weather systems that are entire country. Published.

USDA Feature: 19:03

So there's a lot of public data that is being published, and then there's a lot of private data that is connectable.

USDA Feature: 19:08

So think of such a system being plug and play. One example is

USDA Feature: 19:12

Equipment like a tractor could communicate with a sensor on the field, like a moisture sensor, without having to build proprietary software to do so as long as both of them had connectors for that particular open source software, which being free is easy to do.

USDA Feature: 19:25

Another is an AgStack Foundation, Clemson University collaboration called AgRec, a big data hub for cooperative extension information on agronomy and other topics.

USDA Feature: 19:37

We're enabling that sharing to happen much more efficiently. People can search and find what they're looking for. They can filter based on the criteria without such an information hub. Accessing this information becomes really difficult even though it's available.

USDA Feature: 19:49

Bob Broadbane reporting for the US Department of Agriculture in Washington DC. And I'm Illinois

Todd Gleason: 19:56

Extension's Todd Gleason. You're listening to the closing market report on this Tuesday afternoon. We're joined now by Don Day. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don.

Todd Gleason: 20:07

It is a beautiful day here. In your part of the world, do you have sunshine as well?

Don Day: 20:11

Yeah. It's pretty nice across a lot of US, with some mild April weather that I think everyone's enjoying.

Todd Gleason: 20:19

Tell me about the weather that, producers will be facing the next seven to ten days as they continue to plant corn and soybeans across the Midwest?

Don Day: 20:29

Well, we are going to be looking at definitely the western and Northwest areas of the Corn Belt getting into some precipitation. While short term, as we go here through the next forty eight hours or so, we'll we'll see a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity from Northern Illinois across parts of Iowa and in Eastern Nebraska and Kansas, but it won't amount to a lot. But as we get to the end of the week and into the beginnings of the weekend, we're gonna see an area of rain and thunderstorm activity that will extend from Texas north through Oklahoma, Kansas, a lot of Nebraska, a lot of Iowa, and getting into portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Now that Western Corn Belt region, think, is gonna have the best chance of getting wet. A lot of the Eastern And Central Corn Belt, it's only gonna be scattered showering activity.

Todd Gleason: 21:18

This is a continuing series of storms that have crossed the Corn Belt. Is there another one after this following one?

Don Day: 21:27

We likely will. This will be especially true towards the middle of the week after this one. They're they're spaced apart about every four or five days, and we don't think that's gonna change anytime soon, at least as we go into that May. We don't see anything that's gonna queue up a big shot of really cold air coming through. So this is mostly gonna be in form of rain in most areas, which you would hope as we get here towards the April, that's how it's gonna go.

Don Day: 21:58

But you always gotta worry about a late season, a shot of cold air. We don't see that here at least over the

USDA Feature: 22:04

next week to ten days.

Todd Gleason: 22:05

Are these rainmakers heavy, or are they in the half to an inch and a half range?

Don Day: 22:10

They're in the latter as you talked about, about a half inch to an inch and a half. Yeah. You're gonna get some pockets of some of the heavier thunder storms that are gonna do a little bit better than that. I think, the areas that we see having the heaviest rainfall will be from, the Central and East Central counties of Kansas north through the Central and East Central parts of Nebraska into Western Iowa. Now we're also gonna see another area of rain in the southern areas that are pretty wet.

Don Day: 22:38

We are gonna see more rain in Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, down into those areas, but we're kind of splitting these rain patterns going south of the Central And Eastern Corn Belt and affecting those western areas, but not going through the middle.

Todd Gleason: 22:53

Thank you much. I appreciate it.

USDA Feature: 22:54

Thank you.

Todd Gleason: 22:55

That's Dundee. He's with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming and joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. I'm extension's Todd Gleason.