Apr 30 | Closing Market Report

Speaker 1: 00:00

From the LEND to Grant University at Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the April 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's a TGM.

Speaker 1: 00:14

That's Total Grain Marketing. It's the start of our spring fun drive, and I'll ask you to dial in at (217) 244-9455. That's 217 big will, w I l l, in support of the ag programming that comes to you from Illinois public media or go to willgive.0rg. Either way, it's important to do it right now today. Don't wait and make that donation at willgive.org or (217) 244-9455.

Speaker 1: 00:46

As we make our way through the half hour, we'll also talk with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Help review some of the dry conditions in China, what's happening in Ukraine and Russia, update us on the safrinha crop in corn, talk about the Canadian Prairies and, of course, the Midwest and the Corn Belt too on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Mac corn for the day settled at four sixty seven and a quarter, six and three quarters higher.

Speaker 1: 01:21

July at four seventy five and a half, up five and a quarter. In December, opinion, three quarters higher at $4.46 and a quarter a bushel. May beans at $10.34 and 3 quarters, down six and a quarter. July, '8 and a quarter lower at $10.44 and a half. And new crop November soybeans, $10.18 and a quarter, down seven bean meal 50¢ lower the bean oil 27¢ lower and July soft red winter wheat up five and a quarter at $5.30 and three quarters to hard red down a penny and a half at five twenty nine and a half live cattle futures for a dollar 80 lower.

Speaker 1: 01:54

The feeders down a dollar 87 and a half and lean hogs off a dollar 17 and a half. Greg Johnson from Total Grain Marketing. That's TGM. The elevator here in Champaign County, part of a larger system that belongs to FS, now joins us to talk about the marketplace. Greg, to begin with, thank you for all the service over the years.

Speaker 1: 02:16

Like many of the analysts, you have been on the air at w I l l a m five eighty with will ag dot org for a very long time now, and we appreciate the work that you do, volunteering with us in the same way that I know that our listeners appreciate what you do as well and that they're involved in the process. And we're in the midst of our spring fund drive. We're looking to, put some money in the bank for use next year. We do put money in the bank ahead of time. So by the time we get to the month of June, we'll have everything we need for the following fiscal year, and you can help us out right now, in fact, by dialing this number, (217) 244-9455 or go to willgive.0rg.

Speaker 1: 03:06

That's willgive.0rg or just willag.org and up at the top of the page, you'll find a place to make a donation. We appreciate that. I kinda like the hundred and $20 level. Please make that donation. Anything more or less is perfectly fine.

Speaker 1: 03:20

The most important thing is, for us that you make it known that you really do appreciate, all the work that Greg and the rest of the analysts do, and thank you so much. (217) 244-9455 or will give 0 r g. When you and I are talking, Greg, we know we've seen a flash corn sale that managed to push the price of corn higher. We don't know where that's going, but, it was good news to the corn market. What else are we seeing today?

Speaker 1: 03:50

And maybe you could start with what things look like on the ground near us.

Speaker 2: 03:55

Yeah. Yeah. Central Illinois, we've kind of been the Goldilocks area. It's but not too wet, not too dry. It's been just right.

Speaker 2: 04:03

We've missed out on some of these rains that have gone just north and south of us, which, you know, for this time of year, that's exactly what we want. We've made a lot of progress. I think Central Illinois is probably the farthest along of any area in the state. Northern Illinois was doing really well. They were dry, but then they got some rain last week, so that slowed them down for a couple of days, but they're back up and running now.

Speaker 2: 04:25

Southern Illinois continues to be the problem. That southern third of the state, South Of I-seventy, just continues to get rain, and they got more rain yesterday. They're getting more rain today, and, that's gonna be the struggle. That's gonna be the issue as to when Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Missouri, Arkansas, in those areas can get planted or if they in fact will get planted to corn. Maybe if it stays wet, they'll have to switch over to beans.

Speaker 2: 04:49

But, right here in Central Illinois, we cannot complain a bit. We've got people that are probably getting close to 75, 80 percent done. You know, some people are done with one commodity and starting on the other. Others are doing both and making good progress on both. But, you know, Illinois was behind as a state when it came to corn planting when the numbers came out Monday.

Speaker 2: 05:13

But that's not the case here in Central Illinois. I think we're ahead of schedule. It's it's only April, and, we're getting people close to finishing up. So, we're you know, crop from a crop progress point of view, Central Illinois is the Goldilocks area so far this year.

Speaker 1: 05:30

Western Corn Belt was moving quickly. It made up for the lack of movement, in the state of Illinois. And Illinois wasn't terribly behind, but it it was just a bit behind the five year rolling average. However, The National was a couple of points ahead. So the marketplace took that in stride and said, well, I guess they're gonna get it planted at this time and looked forward and thought that wasn't going to be an issue.

Speaker 1: 05:55

Markets went down. Part of that, I think, has to do with the May expiration as well. Can you talk about expiration and what happens each month as these contracts go off the board?

Speaker 2: 06:08

Yeah. Funds primarily are long, they buy May corn. And as we get close to the April, first week of May, if you still own those May contracts, you are at risk of taking delivery, physical delivery, and most speculators do not want to take physical delivery of corn. So they need to sell back those May contracts as we approach the first day of May. So I think we saw a big chunk of that yesterday.

Speaker 2: 06:35

That's why the May corn contract was down 15¢, Probably overdid it a little bit, so we're gaining some of that back today. But, as we approach, first notice day and first delivery day, the the people that own it on paper that don't actually want the physical commodity need to sell out of those May contracts on both corn and soybeans.

Speaker 1: 06:54

So when you ignore that, what does it tell you about the marketplace and direction at this point, particularly for corn? And you can delve into the beans.

Speaker 2: 07:02

It's April is just not the right month for corn to rally. We always get it planted. There hasn't been a year where we haven't gotten it planted. We may plant it later than what is ideal, but, we always get it planted. And I don't think you can scare the market into thinking that we're not going to get it planted.

Speaker 2: 07:20

And the forecast, for next week looks wide open. So even if we get a little rain over the next two or three days, next week looks wide open. So, I think we're going to be ahead of pace, by the time the numbers come out, in two weeks. And, as people have said all along, the only really key date is May 15. If we've got 85% of the crop planted by May 15, the market just does not seem to get too concerned, and it sure feels like we're gonna be 85% planted by the time we get to May 15.

Speaker 1: 07:47

There is a seasonal push in May, sometimes in June, maybe into late June, early July. Part of that, particularly in May, is on the idea that we're not going to be planted on time. So far we are. Sometimes that can have to do with drier conditions in the safrinha growing regions or second crop corn of Brazil. That's not an issue at least at this point this year.

Speaker 1: 08:14

They came through at the end of the monsoon season a little late, frankly, and so they have plenty of moisture to get through, I think, to the end. So what do you think that well, when do you think the seasonal push might be able to come in the marketplace?

Speaker 2: 08:32

I really think it can come in in June for corn, especially. You know, we're here at the May 1, basically, April, first of May, and the market has sold off. We've given back half of what we gained from the fall. We went up $0.90 from the fall low to the February 18 high. And now we've given back exactly half of that or $0.45 from the February 18 high to today.

Speaker 2: 08:54

So we're kind of right in the middle of the range and that's what I would call a fair price for corn. If it rains in June and July and August, prices will go lower into the fall. If it doesn't, we'll go higher. We normally get some kind of a scare, weather scare in June, July. And as you said, the seasonals would argue that people will buy corn and soybeans to some extent ahead of that, hoping to get in on the ground floor of a weather market.

Speaker 2: 09:21

So I think we can see a rally in corn. The ending stocks number is extremely tight here in The US, under 10%. Worldwide stocks are relatively tight as well. Different situation for soybeans as far as world stocks are concerned. But corn's got some fundamentally friendly things, and it's all going to boil down to the weather.

Speaker 2: 09:39

And that's a big unknown. So I think for now, the market is is fairly priced, but it wouldn't surprise me if we do see a little bit of a seasonal rally as we get into June.

Speaker 1: 09:48

Does it concern you that tariffs are beginning to to be imposed, those from The United States on incoming goods, and that that may cause there to be less available cash for others, for nations and buyers in other nations to purchase even if there aren't imposed tariffs on outgoing goods from The US?

Speaker 2: 10:16

Well, the the tariff really are gonna have the biggest impact on soybeans because China, the tariffs are probably gonna last on China longer than on the other countries. Hopefully, we can get some trade deals worked out with our other countries', trading partners. I don't I'm not optimistic that we're gonna work out anything with China anytime soon. That that's gonna take a while. It seems like both sides have dug in and aren't willing to to negotiate just yet.

Speaker 2: 10:42

I think Trump wants to get some deals done with some other countries first, and then he feels like he can bargain from a position of strength, if he gets some deals worked out with Japan, India, European Union, for example. So, yeah, the soybeans are the ones that concern me. You know, the tariffs really could have a big impact on China, on the soybean price because China, while they're buying beans from South America right now, they can't buy all their beans from South America, so they'll need to buy some beans from The United States. But yesterday, they made a comment that they said they could get by with feeding hogs with less a smaller percentage of soybean meal than what they have in the past. So, you know, whether they can or not is kind of irrelevant, but they're trying to talk the market lower.

Speaker 2: 11:23

They're trying to talk that they really do not need to depend on The United States. So, it it's gonna be tough for soybeans. I think the the tariff talk is gonna have a bigger impact on soybeans than it will on corn.

Speaker 1: 11:34

Thank you much. We appreciate, all the work you do, and we look forward to talking with you again next week.

Speaker 2: 11:40

Alright. Thanks, Todd.

Speaker 1: 11:41

That, of course, is Greg Johnson. He is with TGM Total Grain Marketing and helps us out each and every Wednesday here at the closing market report. You can help us out today too by making a donation. Pledge your financial support right now at 2172449455. That's 217-9455 or online at willgive.0rg.

Speaker 1: 12:05

I like the hundred and $20 level. Less is great and more is fantastic. Let's turn our attention now to the weather across the growing regions of the planet. Drew Lerner is here. He's with World Weather Incorporated Kansas City.

Speaker 1: 12:25

Hi, Drew. Thanks for being with us again.

Speaker 3: 12:27

Yeah. Yeah. Hope everything's good over there in your side of the Midwest.

Speaker 1: 12:31

You know what? Farmers have been moving, and I I think it's going pretty darn well here. But I wanna come back to that in just a bit, at least the Corn Belt and and what crop and planting conditions might be like. Let's begin, though, in Asia, Europe, and maybe South America. Start with China because, of course, I've seen, as you and I have talked about in the recent weeks, that there are some dry conditions there, particularly in the corn growing regions of that nation.

Speaker 1: 13:04

Can you tell me about them?

Speaker 3: 13:05

Yeah. There's two areas that are most important for corn and soybeans for that matter. The first is up in the Northeast provinces. That's the old Manchurian provinces, Heilongjiang, Jillian, Lianing. And of course, I'm probably not pronouncing them all correctly, but up in the Northeast, that's the primary area.

Speaker 3: 13:25

Now that area has pretty good soil moisture today. What we're really concerned about is in East Central China. This would be from North Of The Yangtze River, which runs across. So maybe the, we'll say runs across the southern one third of the, nation, about a third of the way up from the Southern Coast. Everything north of that all the way up to Mongolia has short to very short soil moisture today.

Speaker 3: 13:54

Now some of that dryness in the northern part of that region is not unusual for early April or even early May. But it is drying out more and more every day. The temperatures are warm biased and we are, like I said, running very short of moisture up that way. And it looks like we've got at least ten days of more of the same, if not two weeks. So my rule is that if you get into late May and you haven't brought in any significant moisture to that part of China, it raises a little flag in my mind.

Speaker 3: 14:28

So another week from now, maybe ten days when we start looking at the May, if we don't see some rain developing by that point in time, this might become some somewhat of an issue for a little while. But right now it's just worth mentioning that it's pretty darn dry. The winter wheat crop is produced in that area is largely irrigated. So that hasn't been hurt. But early season spring and summer crop planting in some of that East Central section of China, does need moisture.

Speaker 3: 14:58

But, again, it's not gonna be a big deal for another couple of weeks.

Speaker 1: 15:01

K. Since you mentioned Manchuria, I have to mention because we're here near Decatur, that Manchuria in 1921 after World War one was shipping so much soybean oil into The United States that AE Staley out of Decatur asked congress or lobbied congress to put a tariff on at that point, and that is how soybeans came into The US. And they started to press soybean support oil in Decatur. Just a quick little historical note. You can look it up.

Speaker 1: 15:37

It's a really great story. Okay. So

Speaker 3: 15:40

Yeah. Fascinating. Fascinating.

Speaker 1: 15:41

Out of there, let's go to Russia, Ukraine, and what conditions look like for them.

Speaker 3: 15:46

Yeah. You know, the the biggest news there for this week is that there was frost and freezes that occurred in Ukraine and portions of Russia's southern region. This was on Sunday, Monday, and a little bit on Tuesday morning this week. And in a normal year, that wouldn't have been a big deal. But for the previous eight days, temperatures were in the seventies and lower eighties each day, every day during that time period.

Speaker 3: 16:13

And there had been a boost in soil moisture across that region and crops were already greened up and, you know, ready to do some development. And when they got into that stretch of warm weather, I'm sure as I'm sitting here that the canola crop or rapeseed crop in that area, as well as some of the small grains probably went through a period of a little bit more aggressive development. And then along came these frost and freezes, and we saw the temperatures go down below freezing all the way down to the Northern Shore of the Black Sea with temperatures in the middle and upper twenties down to the northernmost part of Ukraine. Anyway, the point of this is that, rapeseed's pretty sensitive to frost and freezes after it started a more aggressive development. It's it's one thing if the the crop is only up a little bit and they can probably take a, you know, 27 degree temperature reading and still do alright.

Speaker 3: 17:04

But I'm afraid that the crop might have gotten a little bit ahead of itself and that there may have been a little bit more damage. So that's the first thing to talk about. The dryness you mentioned, in, Eastern Ukraine over into, Kazakhstan, including Russia's southern region had been a big issue, of course, last fall. And then we did really a little bit better during the winter season. We got some moisture in that region.

Speaker 3: 17:28

The crops woke up this spring and they started developing and we kept seeing a little bit of light precipitation in the area. So they did all right. And then along comes the April and it quit raining and they got warmer. And so the ground is drying down again. Now the subsoil is still rated adequately.

Speaker 3: 17:46

The topsoil is running short of moisture. It is not a crisis today. But we don't see a lot of precipitation coming up over the next ten days in that region either. So we do need to kind of keep an eye on it. It's gonna be a little bit coolish, so that's okay.

Speaker 3: 18:02

It'll help conserve the moisture. So by no means am I trying to suggest there's a huge issue there. But if for some reason we don't get any rain in late May and we heat back up again, they could fall back into some more trouble.

Speaker 1: 18:17

In South America, the safrinha corn crop still in good shape?

Speaker 3: 18:20

Yes. It is. And, seasonal rains have finally ended. That took place over the past few days. And it looks like we will not be seeing any more rain in Center West or the majority of Center South Brazil for the next ten days, maybe two weeks.

Speaker 3: 18:39

And that's normal. The big focus of attention now is on how much moisture do we have in the soil. And is it possible these crops can go all the way through May and maybe into early June without a drink of water? And the answer to that is for crops that are planted on time, that's a possibility. But for the late planted crop, which is 20 to 25% of the crop, it's probably a little doubtful.

Speaker 3: 19:01

They are going to need a drink of water at some point in the May or even in early June. And it doesn't usually rain a lot, but they don't need a lot. They just need to have the temperatures held back in a normal range and a couple of little opportunities for light rainfall. And I think if they can get that, the crop will still perform relatively well. If it stays dry all the way through that period though, they will come up with a smaller crop and that's what really the marketplace is expecting anyway.

Speaker 3: 19:32

So it's probably not gonna have a big impact on the world marketplace.

Speaker 1: 19:36

In North America, because you mentioned, rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine, the heat there, potential for some problems if cold were to come in, I'm wondering if that spills kind of over into the canola growing regions of Canada, how hot they might get, and then farmers here will be thinking, hey. If they get a really good cold spell there, what's the issue with freeze and frost in the Corn Belt?

Speaker 3: 20:03

That, you know, that's that's a very good assessment and scenario. The way it looks like right now in Canada, and for that matter, North America, we've got a very strong ridge of high pressure that's building right now over British Columbia and The US Pacific Northwest. And over the next two or three days, the ridge will intensify and start working its way eastward. This ridge will move across the heart of Canada and the Northern US Plains and send temperatures way above normal. We will see temperatures in the eighties across Canada's prairies, as we get into Friday and Saturday, maybe a little bit into Sunday.

Speaker 3: 20:40

Most likely what will come out of this heat will be some new worry about dryness returning to that area. You know, some of those producers have been subjected to multiple years of drought and they just aren't in the best moisture condition here. And they're worried that if it gets hot so early that they're going to be seeing some more bad news down the road. The reality is I think they'll do better this year than they have in recent past years. But the heat's kind of interesting and yeah, you're right.

Speaker 3: 21:09

It could get cold again. Their last frost freeze dates are deep in May and sometimes in early June. And so there's still plenty of time for the the tide to turn up that way. But I think for now, the biggest focus is on the the moisture profile.

Speaker 1: 21:24

And you didn't mention the Corn Belt for cold. So do conditions look like next week and into the deeper parts of May?

Speaker 3: 21:32

Yeah. Sorry about that. The the ridge that I mentioned that goes across Canada, the Northern Plains, actually goes across the Midwest as well, And that will occur next week. That ridge is going to end up going stationary over the Eastern Midwest. So it's gonna pass through the Western Corn Belt and the Plains as we get in through the weekend and early next week.

Speaker 3: 21:52

And then next week, it'll be over the Eastern Midwest. That means that we'll have multiple days of, mostly dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures, occurring across parts of the Midwest as well as some of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest area as well. So a very good opportunity here for aggressive fieldwork to take place in areas that obviously don't still have standing water and the low lying areas that's primarily in those southernmost fringes of the Midwest. I think in general, it's a very good opportunity for some aggressive fieldwork. And it looks like the ridge is gonna want to go nowhere for an even longer period of time.

Speaker 3: 22:29

It will get weak, and it will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to move through it. But I think, what I'm seeing in the models here is that we're done with excessive rains in the Eastern part of the Midwest for a while.

Speaker 1: 22:41

Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. Have

Speaker 3: 22:43

a great day.

Speaker 1: 22:43

You too. True learner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the cuisine market report from Illinois public medium. It is public radio for the farming world, and we invite you to participate today by making a financial contribution to 2172449455 or willgive.org in support of the ag programming From IPM, I'm Todd Gleeson. Doctor.

Speaker 1: 23:52

JACKSON: