Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 9th day of January 2025. I'm extensions Todd Gleeson. We're in our 40th year, 10,000 episodes, 30,000 interviews here on the Closing Market Report, including many with Matt Bennett of agmarket.net. He'll come up to tell us a bit about what happened in the commodity markets today.

Todd Gleason: 00:24

I'll provide you with some reflections on President Jimmy Carter. And then as we close out our time together, we'll take up the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tannura on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world.

announcer: 00:40

Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 00:45

March corn for the day settled at $4.56 3 quarters, 2 3 quarters higher than May at 4.64 3 quarters up 2 and a quarter. And December futures, that's the new crop, up a penny and a half at $4.46 and a half. March beans, $9.96 3 quarters. Up 2 and a quarter. The May at $10.8 a quarter cents, up 2 and a quarter.

Todd Gleason: 01:05

And the November new crop at $10.10, a penny higher for the day. Bean meal down a dollar 70. The bean oil 79¢ higher. Soft red winter wheat down 4¢ at 5.32 at a quarter in the March. The hard red March at 5.48, down 2 and a quarter cents on the afternoon.

Todd Gleason: 01:23

Live cattle futures at a $198, $4.38 higher rather $4.30 higher for the day. Feeders at 26872 and a half, up $3.75, and lean hogs at $82.15, 2 dollars 67a half higher. Matt Bennett is now here from agmarket.net. Hi, Matt. Thank you much for being with us.

Todd Gleason: 01:44

You're on the road. It's winter meeting season. You were in where in Southern Illinois this morning?

Matt Bennett: 01:50

I was down at Rend Lake College for Farm Credit Services and, did a meeting down there for them. They'd had an ice storm more so than a snowstorm, so their attendance was down a little, but several people made it out. It was a pretty good crowd. And then I'm going from there up to Iowa. I got market to market tomorrow.

Todd Gleason: 02:06

Alright. So on market to market, folks can watch that on our home station, WIL channel 12 on Sunday. They'll get to see you. Thanks so much for taking some time with us today. What do you hear about the markets, and what's your view of tomorrow's USDA report?

Matt Bennett: 02:22

Yeah. I mean, today, you know, you got a little bounce in here. I think there's probably some position in the evening. You know, we're watching this Argentina forecast about every 6 hours kinda like we would, a US forecast. Now they are not at crunch time, so to speak, but people are watching those 2 week forecasts pretty close.

Matt Bennett: 02:40

So, this morning, it looked like a little more moisture. It didn't get any wetter at noon. In fact, maybe a little drier depending on which model you looked at. Of course, we closed at noon, but I do think a lot of folks, were covering short positions that's been established lately because, clearly, the market's been kind of in a sideways to lower tone. So as far as the report goes, I could see a trim on yield as possible, both corn and beans.

Matt Bennett: 03:08

I I still think that dry August might, hang around a little bit as far as trying to figure out size of that crop. But, Todd, I I guess I just really struggle to find a a a way to get friendly, you know, unless it's a massive cut. And I don't think that's in store. It sure seems to us that most of your end users feel pretty comfortable with their coverage right now. Tells me there's still a lot of corn out on here, so it's a big crop.

Matt Bennett: 03:32

But I could see a bullish report tomorrow, producing, you know, potentially a a a negated version as far as, what people react to it like. So I'm not super bullish or friendly at all unless we can get some South American weather to give us a boost.

Todd Gleason: 03:48

So short term friendly and then long term unless there's a weather issue, there'll be a problem going into March. Is that what you're trying to tell me?

Matt Bennett: 03:57

I'm praying that we rally a little, Todd, is what I'm doing. And, if we do, I think we need to respect that rally. Tomorrow, there's I mean, Todd, I think you know it as well as anyone. There's a there's just no way to know tomorrow. I mean, they could they could, drop stocks.

Matt Bennett: 04:14

Heck, they could raise stocks. I mean, I don't think that will happen. Disappearance had to have been just phenomenal in the 4th for, 1st core 1st marketing year quarter, especially for corn. And so, you know, I do think we've used a lot of corn. Demands looked awful good.

Matt Bennett: 04:30

But, you know, when you look at this world stock situation on soybeans, it's kind of an anchor on the entire market, whether you're talking corn or beans. So, you know, I think that the rally should be respected. I hope we get one, but, it's awfully hard to know whether, we will or not.

Todd Gleason: 04:45

November, December, really good for Ethol. Actually, a bunch of record weeks in there, I suppose. You've been watching that one closely as it, concerns consumption.

Matt Bennett: 04:54

Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt, consumption has been, just phenomenal. I think the problem, of course, whenever you get into a great demand type talk, now you're gonna start talking about acreage. And whenever it gets over to corn, you know, as we talked about on commodity week last week, you're looking at some healthy numbers. And so if you tag big acres onto even like a one six carry, you've gotta think that that's gonna make it a real headwind for the market to rally.

Matt Bennett: 05:19

But, yes, consumption's been fantastic.

Todd Gleason: 05:21

As it relates to the grain stocks, do you think that the livestock number, which will be the, feed and residual figure for WASDE, you and partially the grain stocks as well. Do you do you think those numbers have been big enough to really chew through feed in a dramatic way in the Q1?

Matt Bennett: 05:38

Not necessarily, but the feed and residual usage is, you know, Todd, sometimes that gets pretty, creative in how they use that particular line item. So, my personal opinion is the feed residual usage would go up. It's got very little to do with feed. I tell you right now, with the corn market where it's at and wheat where it's at, there's a lot of folks talking about starting to introduce maybe some wheat into feed rations, especially if corn would move any higher at all. So I can't imagine that on the balance sheet, they're gonna end up adjusting feeding residual usage higher unless they've made a mistake in a previous report.

Matt Bennett: 06:12

So, I agree with you. I don't see any reason to really raise that thing.

Todd Gleason: 06:16

You and I both spent a great deal of time with Daryl Good over the years. He would tell you, I know, that, the reports tomorrow will set the tone for the next 3 months. What have you learned from him that tells you about what that tone how to follow that tone, once it is set and we know what the reports say?

Matt Bennett: 06:35

Yeah. I think whenever it boils right down to it, that's the final number, of course. We know what the stock's number, the carryout is for old crop. Now we're gonna start looking at new crop. To me, if if we would get that thing down to 16 or below, you know, potentially that gives you a supportive type feel.

Matt Bennett: 06:53

I'm not saying it's bullish, but at least supportive. So this January report, you know, it does create lots of volatility, and there's good reason for it. And it's just what you stated is that a lot of times, you'll see this January report kinda change the tone somewhat. Right now, the tone has been a little more of a supportive tone over the last acted. I think we gotta be respectful of the fact that we've already gained a lot.

Matt Bennett: 07:19

So maybe we don't get super bold up. If you get a bullish report tomorrow, I see it as a really good opportunity to do some catch up as far as old crop goes, new crop goes, you name it.

Todd Gleason: 07:29

Alright. Hey. Thanks much. Safe travels the rest of the way to Des Moines to do market to market. We'll be watching for you, on channel 12, this Sunday morning at 11:30 AM.

Matt Bennett: 07:40

Oh, absolutely, Todd. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

Todd Gleason: 07:43

Mhmm. Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. I'll take some time today to remember former president Jimmy Carter. As it happens, he's one of my personal heroes. I was in grade school when he was the president of the United States.

Todd Gleason: 08:01

I suppose the late 1970s era had a lasting impact upon me. Had I been able to vote in 1980, I'd have voted for Ronald Reagan. I did so in 1984. Still, in 1978, I gave a speech at my 8th grade graduation. I was valedictorian.

Todd Gleason: 08:19

It was a class of just 10 students, and it was the last time my grades led the day. In that speech, I spoke but did not rail against smoking and noise pollution. Those are 2 things I still find terribly annoying. I find solitude in silence, or maybe better said, the sounds of nature. I remember thinking the same thing when visiting a construction site in India.

Todd Gleason: 08:44

There were no engines. The quiet of the worksite was profound to me. This is all in reference to Jimmy Carter's profound but quiet nature. Now I don't like conflict, and based simply on the way he spoke, neither did he. But he cared deeply about people and the planet.

Todd Gleason: 09:04

I met him once in St. Louis at the Donald Danforth Plant Sciences Center. The University of Illinois had just joined the consortium supporting the research that happens there. Carter gave a speech that included remarks on the developing world of genetically modified organisms, particularly plants. I think you'll find this portion of the post keynote address press briefing interesting.

Jimmy Carter: 09:26

Well, I'll I'll just say in opening that I'm delighted to be here at what I consider to be a momentous and historic occasion for all those throughout the globe who are interested in food and clothing and shelter, which I think would probably include everybody, even even news reporters. And, so if you have questions to ask, I'll be glad to answer them.

Todd Gleason: 09:50

The first question asked by a reporter wanted to know if president Carter would expand on the comments he made during his speech related to the lobbying efforts against GMOs.

Jimmy Carter: 10:00

Yeah. In 1972 in Rio de Janeiro, it was mandated that at the end of, a certain period of time, about 5 years, that all those who've ratified the, treaty to protect the environment, and that, at this time includes a 172 nations, by the way, not including the United States of America, that they would come out with an international agreement on how to handle matters that might reflect adversely on the environment. There are some, misguided and ill advised people who have set upon a crusade to prevent any sort of, genetically enhanced organisms from coming into a country. And what they are trying to do is to make it mandatory for a government of any country, say Ghana, to have to pass a law or written permission for any of those kinds of, organisms to be brought into the country, which would preclude, if carried out the way they envision it now, any sort of, chemical fertilizers, any sort of, herbicides, any sort of, insecticides, any sort of genetic genetically enhanced seed that might be resistant to weeds or to, the attack of insects or that might be highly productive. It's it's, I'm sure very sincere people, but we face them all over Africa and particularly in their crusade against the basic things that all of us have taken for granted since birth.

Jimmy Carter: 11:32

And that is just a simple use of chemical fertilizers. We primarily use in those countries triple triple phosphate and urea, and they have a crusade against the use of even chemical fertilizers. But there should be restraints placed on it, and that's one I made one very brief comment in my talk. I was trying to keep it keep it as, as as simple as I could in that whenever Monsanto or American Home Products or other major corporations evolve, these genetically improved, mechanisms, either an organism or a chemical, they will be tested first, among the 100 of 1,000 or 1,000,000 of American farmers and American consumers who are protected, as you know, by the FDA and by other very carefully contrived laws. And it would probably, almost inevitably, only be after then that the that these fully tested and approved, improvements would be introduced into a broad area of of, say, Africa or Asia.

Jimmy Carter: 12:34

So you've got that built in insurance policy, but but it's it's hard to to exaggerate the fervency of these people who are against any sort of genetic improved, plants or chemicals.

Todd Gleason: 12:47

The first genetically modified crops were introduced on the farm in 1995. And by the time this speech was made by president Carter, 80% of soybeans in the United States were genetically altered to resist glyphosate or Roundup. The next question followed up on that point, wanting to know if there were any voices in the United States that were deploring GMOs.

Jimmy Carter: 13:11

Well, yes, they are prevalent here. In fact, I I happen to be a very strong and dedicated environmentalist myself, and I have arguments with them sometimes. And I try to describe to them some points that I made in my talk that we could not have made a living on our farm had we not used pesticides against weeds and and insects in the growing of corn, for corn root worm, and for soybeans, and and for cotton, peanuts, everything that we grow. We couldn't have done it. And and obviously genetically improved, say bermuda grasses, are now, you know, a basis for forage for our cattle.

Jimmy Carter: 13:47

There's nothing artificial about it. And in our programs in, in Ghana, I don't know if doctor Bullock is here or not, but the doctor Bullock, who's a Nobel Peace Prize winner for the Green Revolution, we just introduced basic and very simple things. We don't mechanize at all. There is there quite often is no animal husbandry involved, not even an oxen on the farm if the farms are too small. All of the work is done by human beings, quite often women who do the the manual labor and cultivation and so forth, and and they without using, improved strains, mostly open pollinated the corn, the planting of them in contour rows, the fertilization, just to maintain the the fertility of the soil as it produces repetitive crops is the only thing that prevents slash and burn where you just used a 2 acre field, and then next year you gotta go to a different 2 acres.

Jimmy Carter: 14:43

This is very destructive, environmentally, the slash and burn technique that's used quite often in the world. So there are Americans who feel very strongly. We don't want to use anything except, I guess, human feces. We don't wanna use any chemical fertilizers because they're not organic. I think they're they're ill advised, but as I say, very sincere and and very influential.

Jimmy Carter: 15:07

They're not as influential in this country as they are in

Todd Gleason: 15:14

importance of the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center to his neighbors or just research in agriculture in general?

Jimmy Carter: 15:23

Well well, I think that the the Danforth Plant Sciences Research Center here is crucial now and in the future to feed the world's people, to improve the health of children, and at the same time, to protect the environment. And and all those, responsibilities, I think, would be the the major charge of the people here, and they are not incompatible. Mister president

Todd Gleason: 15:52

That was former president Jimmy Carter speaking to reporters at the Donald Danforth Plant Sciences Center in Saint Louis near the turn of the century. I was there in the 2nd row listening to a farmer, a former president, that reminded me of my father. He and my older brothers had, by then about 2 decades earlier, transitioned the family farms to no till as an economic and environmental decision at first on the Hell Acres, highly erodible lands, but then to the Grand Prairie Flatlands too. Like nearly all corn and soybean farmers, they had also quickly adopted GMOs over a 4 year period beginning in 1995. For me, listening to Carter then, it was about the environment,

Jimmy Carter: 16:35

the

Todd Gleason: 16:35

economics, and feeding the people of the world. And as he said, all those responsibilities are not incompatible.

Todd Gleason: 16:54

Let's turn our attention now to the global growing regions and to see what the climate impacts might be on crops across the planet. We'll begin in South America with Mike Tannura. He's the president and CEO at T Storm Weather.

Todd Gleason: 17:09

That's tstorm.net online based out of Naperville, Illinois. Hi, Mike. Thanks for being with us. In South America. We've been watching the Argentine weather very, very closely. The marketplace has been reacting, to dry conditions there and maybe some rainfall at some point in the future.

Todd Gleason: 17:31

Can you tell me what your assessment of that crop and conditions and weather might be like?

Mike Tannura: 17:36

Well, there's no question that it's too dry in Argentina. It started drying out 2 to 3 weeks ago, and it's certainly showing up in the data that we collect. As we move forward over the next week or 2, there's not very much rain on the forecast. Yes, as you noted, there will be some storms around 10 days out, but you need about 2 to 2 and a half inches of rain every 2 weeks to keep up with normal. And at this point in time, it only looks like a half of an inch to an inch is coming up, and most of that is more than 10 days out.

Mike Tannura: 18:07

So we need those rains to verify, then we need a lot more to follow. If that doesn't happen, there is historical precedent for dryness at this time of the year to reduce yield potential. If you look back at the recent history, we had 2 years back in 2021 and in 2022, where more than 75% of their corn and soybean production was drier than normal. This is viewing it through 30 day periods. When you look at that, it'll last all the way into the end of the month.

Mike Tannura: 18:35

Both of those years were below trend, and that's why we're a little bit concerned about this. So, yes, there is some rain on the forecast, on the horizon, I should say, around 10 days out, but we need a lot more than that, and we're going to need to see some big rains over the last week of the month.

Todd Gleason: 18:50

The most northern parts of Argentina are in line with Paraguay, southern Brazil. Have these dry conditions persisted across those areas as well?

Mike Tannura: 18:59

Well, they've developed over the last few weeks. Now there, it's a little bit trickier because from November into the middle of December, we would consider the weather pattern that they were in as being pretty much ideal. They were getting great rains, and they also have one of the coolest, if not the coolest, December of the last 45 years across that region. So this was a pretty ideal situation. Ever since then though, it started to dry out.

Mike Tannura: 19:25

We haven't seen much rain in Rio Grande do Sul for a few weeks, and this is an area that really depends on January rainfall for first corn and soybean development and with it being so dry over the last couple of weeks and very little rain on the horizon until also around 10 days out, you can make the argument that this is not a good thing. In the end, Todd, the thing that needs to happen to get out of this situation is we need a lot of rain 2 to 4 weeks from now. Now we can forecast out about 2 weeks and we can see that there are some storms on the horizon around 10 to 14 days out in all of these areas, but if those rains are only a one off thing and then we don't have very many storms that follow it'll be pretty easy to argue that it's too dry and that'll get a little bit tricky on the yield side because weather was so good leading into this period but all in all you just need to pay very close attention on this because this pattern is not ideal, and it does need to break before the end of the month.

Todd Gleason: 20:25

Are there other parts of Brazil you're watching with different stories?

Mike Tannura: 20:28

Well, if you go into central and northern Brazil, which is where around half of their first corn and soybeans are produced, This area has also been having some pretty fantastic weather, but that might turn into too much of a good thing because when it dries out a lot in one part of the world, it usually turns too wet in another, and this is the area where it's turning too wet. We have all these cool fronts that are moving into central and northern Brazil, and then they're dissipating and triggering thunderstorms. These storms are going to last for at least another 10 to 14 days, and we're looking for 5 to 10 inches of rain over this period of time. Normally they see around 3 and a half to maybe 4 and a half inches so this is a lot of rain for them and temperatures will be pretty cool. Now initially this is a good thing because you like to see some nice rains at this time of the year but they do have a history of receiving too much rain late in the season and that can reduce quality, reduce yield, and make it difficult to harvest.

Mike Tannura: 21:24

Now, is all that going to happen? It will if this forecast verifies and then it stays wet over the period of 2 to 4 weeks out. So late January into February. We need to keep an eye on that one as well, because there's not too many signs of it breaking. And again, you know, this is a critical time of the year for them.

Mike Tannura: 21:43

So, Todd, there's a lot of moving parts today and and it's going to stay that way for another week or 2, but everything is going to start zeroing in on these forecasts for late January early February, because that will really determine, you know, whether the things that we're going through now are going to matter.

Todd Gleason: 22:00

I'm going to ask you one final question, and I know this is too far out for you to have a good answer. But on average, when does the monsoon stop and the dry conditions begin, as we enter the safrin or second corn crop era later in this, year?

Mike Tannura: 22:20

Well, generally between April 10th April 30th, that's where things really start to fall apart. Now once you get into May, you can still get 1 to 2 inches of rain, but most of that will be in the 1st part of the month, and then once you're beyond May, it's not raining very much at all. So basically, just think of it from the beginning of April through the end of May. That's where the dry season starts, and it really starts to accelerate as you move into May.

Todd Gleason: 22:45

I just wanted to put that in the back of our minds as we move forward because we'll be hearing about that in future episodes, I'm sure. Thank you very much, Mike. I appreciate it.

Mike Tannura: 22:55

Yeah. Thanks for having me, Todd, and enjoy the, rest of your day.

Todd Gleason: 22:58

Hey. You too. Mike Tanura, of course, is with T Storm Weather. That's t storm dot net online. You've been listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media online at wllag.org.

Todd Gleason: 23:08

I'm Todd Gleason.