Jul 07 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the July 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel.

Todd Gleason: 00:13

He's at agmarket.net. We'll hear from agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota, Ed Assad, and we'll discuss the weather forecast with Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics. I'll also tell you about it upcoming next Tuesday, not tomorrow, but the following one. Farm doc webinar related to the one big beautiful bill act as it relates to farm policy and the changes of farm bill was written side of that act. You wanna be there for that, and I'll give you information about how to get yourself registered, and we'll do all of that on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

Todd Gleason: 00:52

It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. September corn today at four zero three and a half, down sixteen and three quarters. December at four twenty and three quarters, 16 and a quarter lower. And the March corn, down 15 and a half cents at $4.37 and a quarter.

Todd Gleason: 01:18

August beans at $10.31 and a half down 24. November ten twenty and three quarters, 28 and a half cents lower. Bean meal down $5. 20, the bean oil 61¢ lower. Soft red winter wheat in the December down 8 at $5.70 and a quarter of the hard red December at $5.52.

Todd Gleason: 01:37

8 and three quarters of a cent lower. Here to talk about these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net. Hello, Kurt. When you opened the markets last night after the July 4 trade, I know they opened lower gap down actually in both the December and November contracts for corn and soybeans.

Todd Gleason: 01:59

What were your concerns for the

Curt Kimmel: 02:01

Oh, boy. Here we go. Hang on. It's oh, yeah, it was a kick between, you know, where and all of a sudden, you know, gap and bump, But, man, there was so much optimism going home Thursday with the the the, Trump speaking in Iowa. Most generally, you see some type of agriculture or something positive.

Curt Kimmel: 02:24

Really couldn't grasp a whole lot out of that, speech. Then two, the forecast, you know, kind of hit and miss. I I know locally in Central Northern Illinois is kind of, you know, missed the rains, but man, you take Decatur on south, there were some two to three inch rains, take place. So, nothing organized as a whole, big system across the Midwest, but there's enough to kinda take the weather edge off for a minute or two here. In fact, this afternoon's crop conditions report even these rains, won't be probably, in in this report, but, corn, good to excellent category, expected to be unchanged, 73% good to excellent from, last week, 73%, beans, 67% good to excellent, last week we were 66% good to excellent, wheat harvest about 51% complete.

Curt Kimmel: 03:27

A year ago, we were 63% complete. Those will be out here this afternoon. But the other, thing is just that as we got into the mid part of the day here, there's talk that Trump's gonna impose a 25% tariff on the goods, Japan and South Korea. And, man, these are two good corn customers. They're not as big as Mexico as far as a corn customer, but, these could be implemented August 1 here.

Curt Kimmel: 04:01

So, you know, we're getting back in the mode here where, more, tariff talk and that's not good. And this tariff talk is going be up and down here for quite some time. But the main thing is the gap lower, is not good. Follow through selling will put us there to the recent lows here and we need to make sure we hold here or else we could probably see some more technical or selling take place. When you look at what took place today, the commodity funds going into midday, they were sellers of 14,000 contracts of corn, 13,800 beans, about 5,300 contracts a week.

Curt Kimmel: 04:42

That was just going into midday time.

Todd Gleason: 04:45

I would think that those who live near or deliver to consolidated grain and barge elevators might be watching their bases. That could jump on that news. It, of course, is owned by Zeno, and they would want to push grain to Japan. They're a Japanese owned company as quickly as possible. Of course, the tariffs are important too.

Curt Kimmel: 05:07

Yeah, that's front and center, but basis is the key. You hit the nail on the head there because there's going to be some opportunities in some areas to get a little pop up basis here, take advantage of that and try to unload an old crop. There's still some inventory old crop around, mainly an elevator. When you look at the grain stocks report there, quite a bit was in the elevator. I know guys are gonna hang on until they'll last there until the guy calls them up and wants to pay it in charge or not.

Curt Kimmel: 05:37

But the other thing is, it's a long ways away. Don't if it's going to be a big change but we'll have the WASI crop report here at the end of the week. You know, the idea is, maybe they can increase the yields slightly in here but I don't think the crop's, far enough along here to me making a whole lot of adjustments. They'll fine tune demand a little bit, corn demand's a little better, expected, but they'll they'll, subtract that from another another category, but we'll have those numbers here at the end of the week.

Todd Gleason: 06:08

Hey. Thanks so much. We'll talk with you again next Monday.

Curt Kimmel: 06:10

You bet. Take care, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 06:12

It's Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Do visit our website, willag.org. You can hear our programs anytime you'd like. Click and play from the website, willag.0rg, or you can search out the

Todd Gleason: 06:43

I closing market report by name in your favorite podcast applications. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Ed Asit, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota, now joins us to take a broader look at the context of the marketplace as related to the fundamentals. Hi, Ed. Thank you very much. First, just as a reminder, you have a rule, thou shalt not carry old crop corn or soybeans into July.

Todd Gleason: 07:07

I know that's been broken, but you do have the you do have a rule about that. And today, producers who have done so probably are pretty worried, I would think, about what they can look forward to the rest of the summer. How do the fundamentals setting up for corn and soybeans in your opinion?

Ed Usset: 07:29

Well, the crops look good. The, you know, we have the crop conditions report coming out. I was just reviewing them myself last week from a US perspective, Minnesota perspective. It's looking very good in general. There's always gonna be some of your listeners.

Ed Usset: 07:47

Yeah. But it doesn't look good here. It doesn't look good there. But in general, our crop looks good. The weather forecast look good.

Ed Usset: 07:56

We're trading I I think that we trade and have been trading, you know, the ten day, two week forecast. It looks good. It looks good. And when it looks good like that, we're gonna have down days. By the way, I'm sure there are a number of sinners out there who are holding old crop grain after July 1.

Ed Usset: 08:20

I call that the eleventh commandment of grain marketing, thou shall not hold cash, corn, or soybeans after July 1. And that that it's funny. In years past, it's, I've had people ask me, what are the first 10 commandments in grandma? I said, someone else handled the first 10 commandments. I I just had the eleventh.

Todd Gleason: 08:45

Well, I suppose if they've if they've got it, they gambled with it, and so they're gonna be gambling the rest of way out. Now let's do talk about new crop because that is something the producers will be extraordinarily worried about as we head into pollination. It is price times yields, so total numbers change but not as much as maybe as what you might think as it's related to, the price going down. How do you talk through that for yourself and when you're thinking about marketing?

Ed Usset: 09:23

Well, right now, I am I am looking at this bad day and remembering an old saw in the grain business. Don't know if it holds up every year, but, the thought being you go with the flow after the July 4. In other words, if things start to collapse, it's not a good thing. If things if we get a rally after the July 4, that you know, you go with the flow after the July. That's why today is such a crushing disappointment, because we're not off a bit.

Ed Usset: 09:55

We're off a lot. You know, right now, corn off $0.11 soybeans off $0.28 It's not good. If we're waiting and I have been waiting for a rally to sell, and I regret having waited These small rallies we've seen in the last six months, I'm like, Well, that's not the rally I'm looking for. I'm looking for a big rally. Hasn't shown up.

Ed Usset: 10:24

In fact, I don't know. There was a soybean guy out of Nebraska, late of this world. Roy Smith, soy Roy, would write on the topic of soybeans. I don't know if he invented this thought. He talked about the John Deere low.

Ed Usset: 10:46

The John Deere low in grain markets happening in the February, early March because people had payments on their their new tractors and new equipment, and it would force the sale of grains. Well, guess when this year's high was? Yes. It was during the John Deere low. It was the February, early March.

Ed Usset: 11:06

That's as good as we've seen. I come back to, I'm looking at December corn right now, somewhere near $4.25 and I I've mentioned this before. Looking at the December 24 contract. It hit a low of $3.87. That's 30¢ lower from 40¢ lower from where we are today.

Ed Usset: 11:31

And I don't know why that can't be done again. I don't want it to happen, but I don't know why we can't revisit the lows of a year ago. Likewise, for soybeans, November beans are at $10.20 a bushel. Not at its life of contract low that that happened in mid December, but the November 24 contract got below $9.60 in August of last year. That's 60¢ lower.

Ed Usset: 11:59

Could we do that too? Unfortunately, yes. Unfortunately, yes. So a person, if you're a corn grower, soybean grower, look hard at the crop you have, ask yourself, well, if I if, if I've got to move some grain at harvest, I don't have a place on my farm for it. You've gotta bite the bullet and get something done.

Ed Usset: 12:25

Get something started anyway.

Todd Gleason: 12:27

That'll be very hard to do. Like you, I just watched it go lower. I did make a sale earlier in the year, but that Yeah. You you'd say, well, I have less sold now than I thought I had sold. But maybe maybe if you're really thinking about it, maybe you if you work off of norms, you're maybe closer.

Todd Gleason: 12:49

But I think I have less salt than I thought I had sold, and that that's gonna make a difficult time between now and harvest, especially if it has

Ed Usset: 12:57

especially if

Todd Gleason: 12:58

it has to go across the scale. Does it make a difference very much for you if it has if there's a home for it on the farm between those two different kinds of prospects?

Ed Usset: 13:09

Well, certainly, there I'm I'm seeing carries return, particularly to the corn and wheat market, even the soybean market. That is, we're looking at the new crop December contract, the new crop November contract. But if you leap out ahead to the May and July contracts of 02/1926, there's a big carry in the market, and there will be an opportunity for people to store grain and sell that carry and wait for a stronger basis. It's gonna you know, it's still gonna hurt because those May and July contracts aren't gonna be at levels you'd like them to be, but there will be an opportunity to probably pick up an extra 50¢ or more off the harvest price. It's a it's a it's a legitimate post harvest strategy, but I think we'd rather get something sold at a little higher level to start with.

Todd Gleason: 14:07

How do I do that exactly?

Ed Usset: 14:09

You wait for that rally we've been waiting for. Todd, we we keep waiting for that rally.

Todd Gleason: 14:15

And then you make the, sale for January delivery or March delivery. And

Ed Usset: 14:23

You can do that. You can a couple of ways to make that sale. A, you could just make a new crop sale of, November or November beans, December corn with the idea at harvest, you'll roll that hedge to the March, the May, or the July contract of 02/1926, or you could today make a sale of the March, May, or July contract looking at that carry and then to, you know, put the grain in the storage and think about what will my basis be come next spring, early summer.

Todd Gleason: 14:58

Indeed. Thank you much. I appreciate it. Yeah. And we'll talk with you again in another month.

Ed Usset: 15:03

Okay, sir. Okay.

Todd Gleason: 15:05

Ed Asit is an agricultural economist. He's at the University of Minnesota. Extension there. Speaking of extension, the PharmDoc team is scheduled for not tomorrow, but a week from tomorrow on July 15, the webinar that that you will most assuredly want to join. It's up on our calendar at willag.

Todd Gleason: 15:24

Already at the noon hour. On July 15, the PharmDoc team will present the changes that have taken place in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as it relates to the Farm Bill, how SEO has changed, what some of the ARC and PLC programs changes will be like, and what impact that may have across the whole of The United States, particularly across the Corn Belt in the Southeast. You'll want to be sure to get yourself scheduled for that. It will make a difference in your marketing plans. I am almost positive.

Todd Gleason: 16:00

I've not talked with them about all of the changes yet. Of course, the house bill had some changes. The senate updated that. It all quickly was passed and then signed into legislation. The PharmDoc team is still working through the process, and you'll want to be there next Tuesday from noon to one.

Todd Gleason: 16:16

Watch our website, willag.org, for the updated link once that becomes available. I'll put it there so that you can register for the PharmDoc webinar on July 15 related to the one big beautiful bill act and its impact on farm policy. Let's turn our attention now to the ever important weather forecast heading into corn pollination over the next three weeks. We're now joined by Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics.

Todd Gleason: 16:58

Hello, Mark. Thank you much. I know the first five to seven days aren't too terribly difficult to try to get a handle on. It's further out that becomes a problem. However, we'd like to have a good idea what pollination might be like, over the next three week period.

Todd Gleason: 17:15

High temperatures, anything over 93 degrees is difficult, and really dry conditions can be difficult, although we have, I think, enough moisture in the ground to to maybe make it through in most places at this point. What are you seeing across the Corn Belt? Does this look like a good pollination period or an okay one?

Mark Russo: 17:34

Well, Todd, looking ahead here for these next few weeks, well, let's first talk about temperatures. And I guess to get right to the point here with your question, we do not see any significant heat stress for corn pollination over the next several weeks. All of the main heat, and by heat, we're talking about consistent heat with multiple days above 93 or 95 degrees Fahrenheit, that is all outside of the Midwest. In fact, it's all far out across the Western US, and no signs or any signals here that point to that moving into the Corn Belt basically from now through the end of the month. The other item of note here, and this is the turn to the rainfall side of things.

Mark Russo: 18:22

We've seen continued rain activity. Most of the Midwest soil moisture has continued to improve in most areas over the past several weeks. There is one area that has not done as well as the rest of the Midwest, and this is probably already known here for our listeners, but that's here in Illinois, which were one area we haven't done quite as well. It hasn't been that extreme, but this is the one part of the belt where rainfall has been below normal to various extents over the past several weeks. Looking ahead, there are opportunities for rain and areas that have missed out here on more meaningful rainfall have good chances here to receive rain.

Mark Russo: 19:08

It's especially true Central And Southern Illinois. Northern Illinois is a little bit more debatable, but, overall here, those areas that haven't done as well as others still have opportunities to improve as we go through these next few weeks, you know, without any heat.

Todd Gleason: 19:24

When you look into August, and I suspect you have at some point thought about what that weather might look like, does the heat return during that month?

Mark Russo: 19:34

It's debatable right now here, Todd. There are some mixed signals here for heat moving in during the month of August, At least for the early portion of August, call it, like, the first week or so, there's no strong signals for this. But, you know, can we say that there will be no sustained heat or turn to more significant dryness during August? We can't go there yet. It's it's too it's too early to to have those details.

Todd Gleason: 20:01

Early in the season, Noah forecast really, really active hurricane season. I don't think that's been the case. Do you expect those to develop?

Mark Russo: 20:13

Well, right now, it's been generally quiet, although there have been three named storms already that have formed, but they have been very weak storms. But they have produced some localized heavy precipitation parts of the Southeast, like with Chantel this past weekend or even Barrie, one of the reasons why we had the catastrophic and deadly floods in isolated areas there of Texas late last week. We're not seeing any imminent threats right now, but overall this season, at least to us, is shaping up to be a little bit above normal risk. And again, that's probably more so that risk will be heightened as you get into the heart of the season, which is really during the months of August, September, and into early October.

Todd Gleason: 20:58

Turn your attention to places that have been hot and dry, particularly in Europe. What are you watching today?

Mark Russo: 21:05

Yeah. Europe tops the list in terms of concerns with summer crop development and and issues here, heat issues with corn pollination in particular. The next couple weeks is going to maintain the hotter and drier theme across much of Europe. It's not a totally dry pattern. There are some opportunities for rain, but we're not seeing any kind of meaningful long term rainfall in the biggest corn producing countries within Europe.

Mark Russo: 21:35

And also another heat wave is on tap coming up this upcoming weekend and next week. Model guidance has backed off a little bit on the intensity and duration of the heat compared to how things look late last week, but we still feel it will continue to increase stress and ultimately reduce yield potential.

Todd Gleason: 21:54

Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.

Mark Russo: 21:56

You're welcome, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 21:57

Mark Crusoe is with Everstream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world. Now I should be traveling for the rest of the week, taking some time off to go to Northern Wisconsin. I'll be working outside there, building a retaining wall for the week, so you can think about me. It shouldn't be too hot.

Todd Gleason: 22:20

I checked with Mark as we were finishing our conversation up and probably won't get wet there either. Should be a good week. Don't forget that on Tuesday of next week, and I'll be back by the time this happens, I'll be hosting this. The PharmDoc webinar will take place taking a look at what was included in the one big beautiful bill act related to farm policy and how those changes will impact farmers across Illinois and the Corn Belt. You'll want to get yourself registered.

Todd Gleason: 22:52

The registration links will be updated at the willag.org website in the calendar when that takes place. You may have to scroll down to find it. It is at noon on July. You have a great week. I'm Illinois Extinction's Todd Gleeson.