Jul 07 | Closing Market Report

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This edition of the Closing Market Report covers the latest developments in agricultural commodity markets, crop progress, and regional weather forecasting. Host Todd Gleason opens with commodity price updates before talking with Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing, who details a recent technical recovery bounce driven by hot, dry weather patterns and underscores the market significance of the upcoming July WASDE report. The program also reviews the nationwide USDA NASS Crop Progress Report, highlighting that corn, soybean, and winter wheat developments are running well ahead of their historic five-year averages. A feature from Harvest Public Media examines the ongoing regulatory and ecological challenges surrounding the volatile herbicide dicamba and its propensity for off-target drift. Finally, meteorologist Don Day warns of an intense, unseasonable "heat dome" set to bring triple-digit temperatures and dry conditions to the northern Corn Belt, establishing a unique weather pattern wrapped by an outer ring of moisture.

02:19 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
09:32 USDA NASS Crop Progress Report
11:58 CropProtectionNetwork.com to Monitor Disease
13:48 Dicamba, EPA, and U.S. Farmers
18:06 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the seventh day of July 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com. I’ll update you on yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress Report, and then, in the case that you’re thinking about fungicides—and I know you are—I’ll bring you some information from cropprotectionnetwork.com. That’s online, you can go check it out yourself, about diseases in the corn crop and the soybean crop right now. Surprisingly, none to speak of. There is some tar spot around, and we’ll detail some of that as we make our way through this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report. We’ll finish up by talking to Don Day of Day Weather out of Cheyenne, Wyoming, about the forecast. It’s a hot one for a large part of the Corn Belt over the next week or so, right here on Illinois Public Media.

announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $4.43 and 3/4, 5 and 1/2 cents higher. December at $4.64 and 1/4, the new crop up 6 and 1/2 cents. March corn, $4.79, 6 and 1/2 cents higher. September soybeans, $11.87, up 6. November, 5 and 1/2 cents higher at $11.97 and 3/4. Bean meal, $3.30 higher. Soybean oil, 83 cents higher for the day. Wheat futures in the soft red, the December contract at $6.33 and 3/4, up 5 and 1/4. The hard red December, $6.67 and 1/4, 3 cents higher on the afternoon. Live cattle futures for the day finished the nearby contract at $238.42 and 1/2, down 67 and 1/2 cents. Feeders at $360.65 per hundred pounds, and they finished 15 cents higher. Lean hogs at $96.92 and 1/2, down $1.60. Crude oil trading at $70.55 a barrel, up two bucks. Diesel fuel just about 800ths lower at $3.30 and 7/10. And the wholesale price of gasoline at $2.95 and 1/2 cents per gallon on the RBOB, that in Chicago.

02:19 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing
Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing now joins us out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Hello, Naomi. Thanks for being with us again today.

Naomi Blohm: Yes, absolutely. Thanks for having me.

Todd Gleason: So, I’m wondering, from your perspective, can you tell me a bit about yesterday’s trade and if we had follow-through in the overnight and today’s trade?

Naomi Blohm: With Monday’s market action, prices were higher on ideas of hot and dry weather forecasts. There were rumors of China buying U.S. beans yesterday. We also had technical buying on the November beans in the middle of the night. The November futures were able to climb through the 40- and 50-day moving average. That triggered some additional buy stops and just technical buying. Corn followed along higher because of that hot and dry forecast as well, along with corn just being so oversold heading into the Fourth of July weekend.

Today, we had the market doing some two-sided trade action. The market is still supported on the hotter and drier forecast, but we’re approaching some significant resistance points on charts. The November beans are getting close to that $12 area. Back in May, that was big resistance for a good week. On December corn, $4.70 is significant resistance for that contract. We finished $4.64 and 1/4 today, and $4.70 is a 50% retracement. There are a few moving averages at that level that may hold as resistance. Going into the latter part of the week, I’m feeling like trade is going to be cautious. The recovery bounce that we’ve had so far is very worthwhile, but for prices to go higher from here, we need a bullish USDA report Friday, and then we would have to have significant hot and dry weather forecasts continue throughout the end of July.

Todd Gleason: If USDA’s report Friday comes out as the trade would expect it, based on the acreage and grain stocks updates, what happens to this marketplace?

Naomi Blohm: My bias is that if the report comes out as we’re expecting, we’ll go back quickly to weather trade. I’m expecting the report to be primarily neutral. They’ll use the June 30th acres numbers, so that’s no change for corn, and then they’ll use that slight increase of acres that we had from the June 30th report for the soybeans. But I don’t think the USDA is going to make any yield adjustments because, so far, the crop is okay. We don’t have a reason to see them increase yield. When we look at the good-to-excellent category on crop progress ratings, we’re just a little bit behind last year, but they don’t have any reason at this time to make the yield lower because we are overall doing just fine with our crop ratings.

I’m expecting the report to be actually pretty neutral. We will see if the USDA does any tweaking to the demand side of things, but if the report comes in as expected, and if by chance they put a little rain in the forecast or they make the temperatures a little cooler, then it is normal after the July WASDE to see prices slide back lower. Actually, I looked back 20 years on individual December corn charts. There were only three years in 20 years that corn futures have rallied past the July WASDE: 2011 and 2012—of course, we were dealing with tight carryout and the drought—and in 2018, there was a mini-rally after the July WASDE into early August. But then in August, corn prices fell lower and took out all of the gains from July. Just really be cautious heading into this report Friday. If it’s neutral, if it’s as expected, if the weather forecast goes back to be a little bit more beneficial for the crop, this little recovery bounce might be a great opportunity to get those old crop and new crop sales made.

Todd Gleason: I have a nephew who calls me “Toddy Bear.” Dan Zwicker always thought that I was bearish. Both of them are correct. I tend to be about a month too early, but scale-up selling is something that I personally subscribe to for making sales. I look at this week and think about the World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate report coming out on Friday. In my perspective, I’m thinking $12 beans seems like a decent place to make a catch-up sale if you’ve not made enough, or to scale in again. Corn is an interesting function. I’m not sure what to do with it because of the diversity between those two; soybeans are higher-priced than corn is. I’m wondering what you’re telling producers, because many will look at it and say, “I want to see what the WASDE report says before I do anything,” and I’m always more cautious than that.

Naomi Blohm: My thought is that we’re probably going to see prices stay at these firmer levels into that WASDE report. I would encourage some sales ahead of it. I would look at some short-term puts just to protect the rally that we’ve had, especially if you have any unpriced bushels for old crop. Twelve-dollar beans—we were here for one week in May at these prices, and then it evaporated. China bought maybe—we’re waiting for confirmation—but now we have outpriced ourselves to the world market with this rally over the past two days. For China to come back in at a significant value, I feel like we’ll need to have prices fall a little bit lower, and then we’ll see them gobble up our supplies.

Todd Gleason: Now, follow up with the corn, because I’d like to hear what you’re thinking there.

Naomi Blohm: With the corn market, again, wanting to stay in a little bit of a defensive posture for now. There’s a lot of corn that still needs to come to town. There is the potential for another big crop that’s going to be harvested here in a few months in the United States. The second crop corn in Brazil is about 25% to 30% harvested, so they’ll be ready to export that to the world. I’m of the tone of being defensive at this point. Mother Nature is the only thing that would make me change my tune. Of course, she is ultimately in charge. But seasonals would suggest after this WASDE report on Friday, it’s a very good opportunity for prices to slide back down. Take advantage of the rally that we’ve had.

Todd Gleason: Anything that livestock producers should be aware of given the heat that’s coming into the western United States in the next week?

Naomi Blohm: It will be something to keep an eye on those cash market values. We’re watching not only cash, but keeping an eye on box beef values from the standpoint of consumer demand after the Fourth of July. We’re all aware that heat will take its toll on the livestock, and sometimes they slow down some of those auctions just because they don’t want to have to transport the cattle in the heat. We’ll see how it affects grazing lands and how it maybe affects grain prices in the future as well.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much. We appreciate it.

Naomi Blohm: All right, thank you.

Todd Gleason: That’s Naomi Blohm. She is with Total Farm Marketing.

09:32 USDA NASS Crop Progress Report
Todd Gleason: This week we’ll begin to use the crop progress report from USDA NASS, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, following the planting progress. It is important in the spring, and then it begins to correlate—that is, the crop progress as it’s related to the conditions report in the month of July—with what final yields might look like. This week, the nationwide corn crop is moving ahead of its historical pace. Corn silking is reported at 16%, ahead of both last week’s 9% and the five-year average of 14%. Corn in the dough stage has reached 3% nationally, slightly above the five-year average of 2%. Crop conditions remain steady, with 67% of the nation’s corn rated in good to excellent condition.

Soybean development is also showing strong momentum across the major producing states. There are 18 of them. Thirty-four percent of the soybean crop is blooming, up from 19% last week and outpacing the five-year average of 28%. Nine percent of the crop is now setting pods compared to the historical average of 6%. Nationally, soybean conditions are rated 64% good to excellent.

The winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly. Producers have harvested 59% of the winter wheat acreage nationwide, jumping from 48% last week and running well ahead of the five-year 51% harvested number. The remaining crop conditions are lower, coming in at just 26% good to excellent.

Here are some of the differences that we find in the key states. In Illinois, corn development is significantly advanced. Corn silking is 43%, running 24 percentage points ahead of the state’s five-year average of 19%. In Nebraska, soybeans are blooming rapidly at 49%, substantially higher than the 33% historical baseline. In Minnesota, soybean blooming sits at 41%, 12 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 29%. South Dakota soybean progress is double its normal pace, with 33% blooming. In Iowa and Kansas, soybean blooming is also ahead in both states, with Iowa at 37% versus 31% on average, and Kansas at 26% versus 20%.

11:58 CropProtectionNetwork.com to Monitor Disease
Todd Gleason: From the crop progress report, we’ll move to the Crop Protection Network. This is operated by the Land Grant universities and tracks diseases in major crops like corn and soybeans. We’ll give you an update from it, and you can find it—by the way, to look at these updates on your own anytime you’d like—at cropprotectionnetwork.org.

For the diseases of corn, we’ll start with Southern Rust, only reported in a few counties in Texas. Tar Spot has been reported in Illinois, but in just one county, Clark County, and in nine counties spread mostly across central Indiana to the east and just north of Indianapolis. Again, with all just reporting one instance of Tar Spot in each of those counties. Two of the nine counties are west of Indianapolis: Tippecanoe and Montgomery. Ten counties in Iowa are reporting Tar Spot, and there are many counties in the eastern half of Nebraska and along the Kansas-Nebraska state line that have also reported Tar Spot.

Soybeans are clearer throughout the Midwest, with the exception of one report of Red Crown Rot in each of the following Illinois counties: Adams County in the western part of the state, and Hamilton County in the southeastern part of the state. You may learn more and look it all up yourself if you’d like. Check out the crop lookout map at cropprotectionnetwork.org. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.

13:48 Dicamba, EPA, and U.S. Farmers
Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about Dicamba now. Harvest Public Media took this subject up and talked with folks right here on campus at the University of Illinois, at Purdue, and farmers in the east-central part of the state. Dicamba is an herbicide that US EPA has been regulating like all others for a very long time, but this one has particular issues, as you’ll hear from reporter Will Bauer, with drift.

Will Bauer: On Kevin Johnson’s farm in eastern Illinois near the Indiana border, weeds can be a really big issue. He and his family grow corn and soybeans, and they care a lot about the soil. Instead of tilling the field to kill weeds, Johnson relies on a mixture of herbicides, including dicamba.

Kevin Johnson: We have to have every tool in the toolbox. Weeds are not getting easier to kill.

Will Bauer: Dicamba is a potent weed killer. But the problem with this herbicide is that some crops are extremely sensitive to it: grapes, tomatoes, and some trees can all be killed. Even soybeans and cotton that have not been genetically modified are at risk. Dicamba can drift in the wind, and after it’s been sprayed, above a certain temperature, it can vaporize and travel for miles. Aaron Hager is a weed science professor at the University of Illinois.

Aaron Hager: It’s never really a question about if we’ll see the symptomology of off-target movement. We just don’t know how extensive it’ll be because we can’t really predict what the temperature is going to be.

Will Bauer: And that’s why Hager says dicamba can be such a contentious topic, even among farmers.

Aaron Hager: You know, the dicamba mindset among end users or non-end users was like the 2016 presidential election. You were in one camp or the other, and if you weren’t in my camp, you were wrong.

Will Bauer: The EPA calls the new regulations for spraying dicamba on cotton and soybeans the strongest ever. Hager says in some ways they are stricter. For example, they don’t allow dicamba to be sprayed if it’s hotter than 95 degrees. But the EPA also dropped rules that prevented it from being applied after June. Purdue University weed scientist Tommy Butts says farmers need to control weeds, but he has mixed feelings about dicamba.

Tommy Butts: We have to do certain strategies to reduce drift, which are really important. But then that’s also shooting our weed control in the foot, and so we’re losing here too. So that’s why I say I always have a love-hate relationship with it right now because we’re stuck in the middle with a lot of balancing acts, and there’s no good answer across the board.

Will Bauer: Even outside the agricultural community, dicamba can be a problem. In some rural towns, the signs of dicamba drift are apparent if you know where to look. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

Kim Erndt-Pitcher: In a public park in Tilden, Illinois, Kim Erndt-Pitcher has noticed the leaves on the bur oak trees are curled and cupped around the edges. They’re also just misshapen. You can see that even some of the tips are folded, and some of them are severely stunted.

Will Bauer: Erndt-Pitcher is the director of ecological health for Prairie Rivers Network, a conservation nonprofit. She’s been documenting drift damage across Illinois for nine years now. She says dicamba stresses trees and even kills others. Previous iterations of the EPA rules, called labels, have been shot down in federal court, and Erndt-Pitcher doesn’t expect these new rules to break the cycle.

Kim Erndt-Pitcher: Over and over the courts have dealt with this issue, and we’ve had extremely technical, long labels to follow, and it’s still causing injury, and it’s really frustrating to see it come back.

Will Bauer: Back on the farm in eastern Illinois, Johnson says he’s sympathetic to those with concerns about dicamba. He and his neighbors plant dicamba-resistant soybeans in adjacent fields to avoid drift problems. To him, the key comes down to communication.

Kevin Johnson: And I think we’re getting better at that, but up until that point, I don’t think everybody was having conversations. We just wave at each other, stuff like that, as neighbors, but you got to have those conversations. Nobody loves those conversations, but you got to have those conversations.

Will Bauer: Johnson says he wishes there was a better chemical to use, but for now, they have to work with what they have. I’m Will Bauer, Harvest Public Media.

Todd Gleason: Harvest Public Media is a collaboration of newsrooms across the Midwest and in the Great Plains. Now, let’s continue with the Closing Market Report, a collaboration of Illinois Public Media and University of Illinois Extension.

18:06 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather
Todd Gleason: We’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Don, I hope you had a great Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Don Day: I sure did. Hope you did too.

Todd Gleason: I did indeed. Let’s talk about other hot things. July 4th was hot and rainy here. However, I have a feeling you’re going to tell me about some really hot weather that may not have any rain in it for the forecast in parts of the Corn Belt, maybe the western parts of the United States. What do you see for the next several days?

Don Day: What we’re going to see is the first real bona fide heat dome for at least the central part of the US. We’ve seen some here, as we know, along the East Coast and parts of the Southeast with the heat we saw over the Fourth of July weekend. But we’re going to see a pattern set up where a big high-pressure ridge is going to be forming, centered mainly over the northern plains of the Dakotas by late this weekend into early next week, and then it’s going to migrate eastward and set up shop right over the northern Corn Belt. I would say the center of it is going to be in the Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Illinois area, and it is going to make it sizzle.

We are going to see triple-digit temperatures from eastern Montana through the Dakotas into Nebraska. That’s also going to spread heat—where you’d expect it to be hot, but some of the heat they haven’t seen yet this summer—from California and the desert states. Once this high-pressure ridge gets set up, especially during the second half of next week, it’s going to make for some dry conditions for several days for the central and western areas of the Corn Belt. So, we need to be ready for that. Around the high-pressure ridge—and we call this a lot of times the Ring of Fire—there will be deep moisture circulating clockwise around the high, which is actually going to increase some chances of rain in the drought-stricken West. It’s also going to draw moisture in from the Southeast, Atlantic, and Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States. So we’re going to have an island of heat and dryness surrounded by a circle of rain.

Todd Gleason: Wow. So we have some interesting things happening. The triple digits, those are actual temperatures. Those aren’t “feels like” temperatures.

Don Day: Those are going to be the actual temperatures, yeah. I mean, we could see temperatures 105, 108, 109 degrees in those western high plains because of the intensity of the high. Now, the good news for those folks is that it’s going to be four to five days of misery, and then it should ease. But at the same time, we’re going to see that high go into the central part of the country. So it’s going to be making some headlines, and it’s going to be impactful.

Todd Gleason: This one is a little further north than these kinds of highs that I think we have dealt with in past years. Usually, I think about them oscillating between the Four Corners and maybe Missouri/Kansas. This one centered a little differently. Do we know why that’s the case, or is it counterintuitive?

Don Day: It’s counterintuitive. And this is something that’s been going on at the higher latitudes all spring and now into early summer. We have deep storm systems that keep forming in the Gulf of Alaska, off the coast of British Columbia and Alaska. That is causing the intensity of those storms, which is making that part of the world cold and wet, to cause a high amplification of the jet stream, causing the jet stream downwind of these storms to curve much further north than you’d expect in July. That’s one reason why there will be a life cycle. There will be a lifespan on this heat wave to where it will sort of extinguish itself and then go through a life cycle. But this is crazy: while we’re going to be talking about these triple-digit temperatures, they’re going to see unseasonably cold weather and even snow in parts of Alaska during the same period of time.

Todd Gleason: Wow. When you say there will be a life cycle, is it a shorter life cycle, and how long do you expect this to oscillate? For instance, do we go through the end of the month? Does it go a couple of months?

Don Day: I think the extreme heat is going to be about five to seven days, so there’s going to be some legs to it. But what you do tend to see is, you mentioned the oscillation, which is typical going from that Four Corners region to the southern plains back and forth. I think what we’re going to see is that there’s going to be that oscillation, but it may be more north-south than east-west.

Todd Gleason: Oh, interesting. Well, we will catch up with you next week and see what it’s doing then. Thank you.

Don Day: Thank you.

Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming, joining us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report. That came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. I’m Todd Gleason.