Jun 29 | Closing Market Report

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This broadcast of the Closing Market Report from June 29, 2026, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of commodity markets, agricultural policy, industry data, and global weather patterns. The program begins with an assessment of the grain markets, noting a broad downward trend in corn, soybean, and wheat futures ahead of the upcoming USDA reports. Guest analyst Sue Martin shares regional crop insights from North Central Iowa, highlighting favorable crop appearances due to timely rains and structured planting rotations. She anticipates potential shifts in acres toward soybeans in the upcoming government data and outlines market expectations for a July low followed by a demand-driven rally tied to international trade developments with China.

The report transitions into federal regulatory updates, highlighting the USDA's finalization of a voluntary regenerative feedstock rule linked to low-carbon biofuel markets and the federal 45Z credit. The program also touches on a joint university study tracking rural concerns regarding the expansion of AI data centers, as well as new bipartisan legislation designed to train local extension agents to counter the spread of the New World screwworm pest. In livestock industry updates, recent USDA NASS figures are presented, showing a total US hog and pig inventory of 73.7 million head alongside steady weaning averages. This is followed by a discussion on legislative friction regarding California's Prop 12 standards and a Supreme Court decision affecting Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for immigrants, which may tighten labor supplies for food processors and meatpackers.

The final segment features an ag weather analysis with Mark Russo of EverStream Analytics, detailing an immediate heat wave and high humidity building across the Corn Belt and the Central and Eastern United States. Russo reports an increase in short-term environmental stress across multiple livestock sectors—including Plains beef cattle, Midwestern poultry and swine operations, and East Coast facilities—though high winds and projected ridge shifts are expected to offer regional relief and more normalized temperatures by the following week. Additionally, the forecast indicates a low threat of disruptive heat during domestic corn pollination throughout July, while contrasting these developments with an intensifying, multi-wave European heat wave breaking all-time temperature records in Germany and Poland and compounding summer crop deficits across Western and Eastern Europe.

01:22 Ag Markets with Sue Martin, Ag and Investment Services
08:31 WILLAg News for June 29, 2026
11:52 Considering Pork Industry News
15:08 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 29th day of June 2026. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Sue Martin. She’s at Ag and Investment Services out of Clarion, Iowa. Kurt Kimmel is away from the office today. We’ll turn our attention to what’s been happening in the agricultural news, and we’ll take a closer look at the pork industry and the news surrounding it. And then as we wrap up our time together, we’ll discuss the weather forecast—the hot and humid conditions across the Midwest and what that might mean for the crops, the livestock, and the people. We’ll do that with Mark Russo. He is at EverStream Analytics, all on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online, on demand at willag.org.

In Chicago at the CME Group, futures for the corn finished 10 to 11 and a half cents lower. For the soybeans, they were down around 17 for the day. Bean meal futures were off 2.30, the bean oil 2.23 lower, and the wheat futures were off somewhere around 4 to 10 cents for the day.

01:22 Ag Markets with Sue Martin, Ag and Investment Services

Todd Gleason: Sue Martin of Ag and Investment Services out of Clarion, Iowa is here now. Hi, Sue. Thank you for taking time with me. Let’s start with your area when farmers went to the field across portions of Iowa, and you’re to the north and to the west of a little bit of Des Moines—a little west, that is. Did they stay in the field planting soybeans, or did they turn to corn and do what farmers normally do, which is just to continue to plant corn?

Sue Martin: Well, farmers do love to plant corn. But I think it stayed pretty much the status quo of rotation around our area. But I do have to say the crops in our area look very, very good. We’ve not had a lot of rain, and therefore there’s no drowned-out spots in fields. So when you look across the field, it’s all lush and green and straight across. And I would have to say, like for example, this weekend we caught just under an inch and a half on my neck of the woods, North Central Iowa. And even on up to a little bit northeastern of us, they had up to two and a half inches. And I think, in between a few of these nice rains, we’ve had maybe a tenth here or a tenth there, a quarter of an inch, you name it. So we were actually on the dry side needing this rain before this heat comes in this week. And I think we have to believe our root systems are really pretty good, whereas opposed in parts of Illinois, I would have to think root systems might be a bit shallow.

Todd Gleason: In the charts, today will not have been good for them. Corn off a dime or thereabouts, soybeans off, I don’t know, 15, 16 cents, maybe a bit more. Can you tell me what you’re seeing before we get to tomorrow’s USDA reports?

Sue Martin: Well, I think first off, the down draft that we had in the markets today, I think partially could have been tied to the last day for July futures before first notice day of delivery, which is tomorrow. And then also further liquidation in the market looking for crop condition ratings to remain at least steady at worst this afternoon. And then the other thing is the forecast, looking ahead and seeing some heat this week, but then to moderate. And some areas maybe to catch some showers, but all in all, maybe be a little dry as we go to mid-July.

From there, it’s going to be all about temperatures. And the trade right now thinks those temps are going to be moderating after this week. And come this next weekend after the fourth, they’re going to be looking to see how that rain forecast or the temperatures continue to be. And if it shows all of a sudden some heat coming back, that might help the market out.

Now, I will say when I look at corn for example, you look at December corn. Now, December corn made new highs for the year this year over last year. And last year’s low for a December contract is 3.92. So you’re 30-some cents, maybe 38 cents away from that low. That’s not super far when you have still two months to go for a growing season and filling out the kernels and what have you. So the trade right now believes everything’s going very good and status quo, and maybe justifiably so.

But on the same token, I think that we’re putting so much into this, and then we have the reports tomorrow. These are usually big market-moving reports, and the acres coming out, it’s very possible that we’ve had maybe a little bit more of an attitude with the crop insurance and what have you, and the price of beans being what they were competing against corn for acres because beans needed those acres. So it might be that the report tomorrow shows a little bit of a tilt towards more bean acres. And then on the corn, the stocks—coming into the stocks, sometimes that stocks report can give you a surprise.

Todd Gleason: So we will be watching that at 11:00. It will set the tone for the next, I don’t know, three months or so, unless there is a drought somewhere in the middle of that. Do you have expectations for which direction this market will move?

Sue Martin: I think that when we come in here, this report, I think overall I’m looking for a low to be made in the month of July. And then I think we rally, and President Xi comes on September 24th. I think the market is going to anticipate his coming, and I also believe we will see demand going to China.

The inspections this week, of course, 70.3 million bushels of corn for the week ending June 25th, and then 15.4 million bushels of beans, 13.2 million bushels of wheat, and 6.7 million bushels of grain sorghum. Well, it’s interesting because shipments to China last week included 6.7 million bushels of grain sorghum, and they’ve been active in the sorghum market, and pretty quiet and absent supposedly in the corn market. And of course, also 2.4 million bushels of beans went to China last week.

What’s interesting is the cargo of beans included for total inspections for the marketing year is pretty close to 4 million bushels of China’s 12 million metric ton commitment. And so it’s very possible that they exceed that commitment because we’re noticing that private importers are purchasing beans and it’s showing up on container ships being shipped, and that’s usually private buyers. And we also know that Brazil’s exports of beans are down from what they normally would be. So kind of interesting, and we’ll see what happens, but I’m looking for a low to be made in July.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, Sue. I appreciate it.

Sue Martin: Not a problem. You all have a great day.

Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Sue Martin. She is with Ag and Investment Services out of Clarion, Iowa. By the way, you can hear her just before 1:00 each and every day on her home station at WILL AM 580.

08:31 WILLAg News for June 29, 2026

Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, USDA has finalized a new rule designed to expand the market opportunities for farmers producing crops used in low-carbon biofuels. Announced alongside President Donald Trump’s executive order promoting regenerative agriculture, the regenerative feedstock rule establishes voluntary standards connecting regenerative farming practices with biofuel markets for corn, soybeans, sorghum, and spring canola. USDA officials say the framework is intended to help producers qualify for emerging clean fuel markets while supporting domestic energy production.

According to Ethanol Producer Magazine, the rule could create additional value for farmers supplying feedstocks eligible for the federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit by providing a standardized pathway for documenting qualified production practices. Agricultural organizations are reviewing the final rule to determine how growers and biofuel producers might participate as implementation guidance becomes available.

From biofuels, we’ll move to data centers rule. Rural Americans are more concerned than their urban counterparts about the effects of artificial intelligence data centers, particularly rising electricity costs and the loss of farmland, according to new research by the University of Illinois and Purdue. The study, published in FarmDoc Daily, found electricity costs ranked as the top concern among respondents, with rural residents expressing the highest levels of worry. More than half of rural participants say they are very worried that expanding data centers would increase power bills. Concerns over farmland conversion and water use also ranked above the survey midpoint.

Researchers say AI data centers increasingly require large tracts of land, substantial electricity, and significant water resources, making rural communities attractive locations. While such projects can generate tax revenue and temporary construction jobs, long-term employment benefits are often limited, according to research from the Brookings Institution.

And finally, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced legislation aimed at helping ranchers and livestock officials better detect and respond to the growing threat of the New World screwworm. The bill would authorize cooperative extension agents to train producers and agricultural personnel to identify, treat, prevent, and report New World screwworm infestations. It would also allow extension personnel to serve as livestock inspectors and support the hiring and training of additional inspectors.

The legislation also directs closer cooperation among the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS, veterinarians, state animal health officials, and tribal agricultural programs. Funding would prioritize states and tribal communities considered at greatest risk for the parasite’s introduction or spread, as federal officials continue efforts to contain the livestock pest. And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news.

11:52 Considering Pork Industry News

Todd Gleason: Let’s concentrate on the pork industry for just a bit today. Last Thursday, the US Hogs and Pigs inventory totaled 73.7 million head. This was released by USDA. NASS says of that, about 67.8 million head were market hogs, and 5.88 million were kept for breeding. Despite the smaller herd size, production indicators improved. Producers weaned 33.5 million pigs from March to May, which was slightly above last year with an average of 11.87 pigs per litter. Looking ahead, producers intend to farrow 2.9 million sows from June through August.

Those numbers, of course, from USDA NASS in Washington, D.C., where the Senate Ag Chair, by the way, John Boozman, has had to defend his decision not to limit the out-of-state reach of California’s Prop 12 restrictions on extreme animal confinement in his farm bill draft. Boozman says the votes simply are not there yet to restrict California’s animal confinement standards.

John Boozman: And we’re going to need a number of Democratic votes in order to get this passed on the floor. So because of that, we really haven’t identified anybody that will step up and say that they’re for this on the Democratic side. I’m personally for it. I think the pork producers don’t gain anything if you have a vote and it’s just a party-line vote.

Todd Gleason: And more than 300 farm groups have asked the Senate Ag Committee to follow suit after the House passed a farm bill that restricts Prop 12 from impacting how hogs and other livestock are raised in states outside of California.

John Boozman: We can have all the organizations in the world support it, as I do, but if you can’t find some Democrats to actually vote for it, it doesn’t work.

Todd Gleason: Leading Boozman to conclude:

John Boozman: We’re going to have to do a better job of that coalition that is for this. We’re going to have to actually translate that to votes and get some people besides Republicans that will support this.

Todd Gleason: California represents 12% of the pork market, so producers don’t have a choice between doing business in California or not. The Supreme Court ruled it was up to Congress to address Prop 12 and its impact on how pork and other livestock is raised outside of California for sale in that state.

And finally, on this matter, we’ll move off of the National Mall. While the USDA is the only agency actually located on the Mall, along with the United States Capitol, where Congress is headquartered, however, we want to move to the Supreme Court at this point. The Court has handed down a ruling allowing the Trump administration to end TPS, or Temporary Protected Status, for more than a million immigrants. That could make it harder for meatpackers and others in the food supply chain to hire enough workers.

Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.

15:08 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream Analytics

Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast now across the growing regions. We’re going to stay in the Northern Hemisphere where apparently it’s decided summer has truly arrived everywhere in a big way. Hi, Mark Russo. You’re with, of course, EverStream Analytics. Today it is hot, it is humid, and it’s expected to stay that way across a lot of the United States. Can you detail some of it to begin with for me, and then we’ll look at particular areas?

Mark Russo: Sure, Todd. Yeah, summer’s arrived in a big way here this week, not only across the Corn Belt, but also much of the Central and Eastern US. What is driving this heat and higher dew points and higher humidity? It all comes down to a ridge of high pressure, which is in the process of building over and intensifying the Midwest, and it will be basically aligned across the Midwest much of this week.

Its encounter with the Midwest, though, does look to be brief, and over the upcoming weekend and next week, that ridge of high pressure and associated heat and higher humidity will shift back over the Rockies. So when that occurs, the heat will be shifting westward, and temperatures will be cooling down to more normal levels here across much of the Belt. But we got to get through it here this week with this heat and humidity, but there does look to be relief next week, and again, it all comes down to that ridge not staying very long over the Midwest, but rather it’s a mover and moving over to the Rockies here for next week.

Todd Gleason: Well, let me delve a little more deeply into this, and I wanted to divide it into a livestock production sector. So beef cattle closer to the Rockies, let’s start there. Are they under heat and high moisture conditions today, and how much will that change as it shifts to the west by the weekend?

Mark Russo: Yeah, across the Central and Southern Plains livestock areas here, certainly we’re seeing an increase in cattle stress this week as a result of the high temperatures and humid conditions. The one saving grace here, and this is also true across the Midwest too, is that with this heat and humidity, it’s also very windy conditions. And even though every day this week is going to be very hot with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s from western Nebraska down through the Texas Panhandle, it’s going to be very windy with winds generally in the 20 and 30 mile per hour range with some higher gusts as well, especially throughout much of the afternoon and evening hours.

Once the ridge starts to shift back over the Rockies, and again this is more so as we go through the early part of next week, that’s when temperatures will start cooling down across the region and then providing more significant relief. So for this week across the Plains livestock region, certainly an increase in stress. This doesn’t look to be an overall major stressful situation since it’s relatively short in duration, but it is an abrupt change from last week’s unseasonably cool and stormy pattern that was in place.

Todd Gleason: That takes care of the beef cattle in that part of the world. What about the poultry and pork in Iowa and Minnesota, those facilities? Will they have relief from wind as well?

Mark Russo: They do, yeah, they will, and seeing that here today and for the rest of the week. And with the temperatures, again, they’re involved with the heat and humidity, but there will be more chances for rain across much of Iowa and Minnesota relative to the rest of the Midwest. We’re seeing an increase in storminess the next few days as what we call these ridge runners or mesoscale convective systems, or MCSs—these big storm complexes develop on the northern periphery of the ridge. So that’s going to be the favored area across Iowa and Minnesota. So even with the cloud cover there, that’ll help temper things a bit here as we go through this week.

Todd Gleason: And then a couple of other spaces. I think New York’s going to be really hot. A lot of dairy in Upstate New York, and then the Carolinas have an awful lot of poultry and pork production. Those two areas going to be really hot too?

Mark Russo: They will, albeit briefly, and the main window of heat on the East Coast is the second half of this week. And yeah, lots of upper 90s and lower 100s there, increasing stress on livestock. But again, the good news is that it’s relatively short in duration, and relief is on the way here as we go through next week across both of those areas, Northeast and Southeast.

Todd Gleason: So the relief comes next week. Are you concerned that during pollination for corn in the Midwest that this hot and humid weather will return, or hot and dry weather, depending on how you look at it?

Mark Russo: Yeah, great question, Todd, and the way that we see things lining up as we go through much of July—and the fact that the ridge next week shifts back out over the Rockies—we expect it to stay there throughout much of the remainder of July. And if that holds, obviously that reduces any kind of heat threat here across the Midwest as the bulk of corn goes through pollination.

There’s been some competing individual computer model runs at times that have shown ridging and heat returning. We’ve seen that with some of the GFS operational runs at times here in the past few days, but we think that’s an unlikely situation, but rather the more likely situation would be for the heat and ridging to stay out west.

Todd Gleason: And finally, turn your attention to those really hot conditions that they’ve been suffering through in Western Europe, and whether or not they’ve moved eastward.

Mark Russo: Yeah, Todd, certainly a just a phenomenal heat wave that’s been ongoing across much of Europe over the past week to week and a half. Western Europe’s been the epicenter of it, but just over the weekend, we did see the heat expand. And not only did it expand, it did not disappoint as well as we saw all-time high temperature records being broken in parts of Germany and Poland over the past day or two.

As we go through this week, we’ve already started to see northwest and parts of Western Europe cool down. They’ll continue to moderate this week, whereas Eastern Europe still has a few more days to go before they moderate. Longer term, though, we are beginning to see signs already of another heat wave beginning to build back into Western Europe by the middle to end of next week. And if that goes as what’s projected right now, then that will likely continue to build across more of Europe as we go through this middle portion of July. So certainly no long-term breaks in the heat across Europe, and also with this heat and the ridging that’s causing it, it’s also suppressing rainfall too. So their soil moisture reserves are going to continue to decline and that’s also compounding some of this stress on summer crop development there.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Mark. We appreciate it.

Mark Russo: You’re welcome, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Mark Russo is with EverStream Analytics. He helped us to wrap up this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. It did come to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online, on demand at willag.org. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.