Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Lendocrine University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the March 2025. I'm extension's Todd Glisson. A quick reminder, you can still purchase tickets today, tonight, even tomorrow morning online at willag.org for the All Day Outlook. The cost is $50. Do that before you walk in.

Todd Gleason: 00:20

Otherwise, you'll end up going to the website anyway. So go ahead and make your purchases and then show up at the All Day Outlook tomorrow. We'll have Gary Schnitke on hand. He'll join us today, by the way, to discuss the crop insurance decisions farmers will need to take by the middle of the month. We'll also hear today from Kurt Kimmel at agmarket.net about what the trade look like in Chicago, and Mark Russo will be here from Everstream Analytics to discuss the weather forecast on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.

Todd Gleason: 00:52

Todd Gleason services are made available to WIL by University of Illinois extension. March corn for the day settled down 13 and a quarter cents at $4.40 and a quarter. The man four fifty six at a quarter, 13 and a quarter lower. New crop December, just a 3 and 3 quarter cent loss at $4.51 and a quarter. March beans, 13 and a quarter lower at $9.98 and a quarter.

Todd Gleason: 01:15

The May at $10.11 and a half, down 14 and a quarter, and new crop November soybeans down ten and three quarters at $10.18 and three quarters. Bean meal at $2.90 10, down a dollar 60. The bean oil, $42.90 63¢ lower. Wheat futures, soft red, down a nickel, 5 dollars 30 2 in the March. The hard red March at $5.47 and a half, down ten and three quarters of a cent.

Todd Gleason: 01:38

Live cattle futures, 40¢ lower. Feeders, down 95¢, and lean hogs were up 2 and a half cents for a hundred pounds. Crude oil, a dollar 49 lower at this hour at $68.27. Diesel fuel at $2.26. That's about a nickel and a half lower, and gasoline down three and six tenths at $2 and 18 and 6 tenths of a gallon.

Todd Gleason: 01:59

Now we're joined by Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net. Busy day, I bet for you, Kurt.

Curt Kimmel: 02:04

Oh, boy. It was a doozy. Just continued, meltdown on the technical side of the, picture here. We just seen commodity funds continue to pressure the marketplace, exiting lawns. They probably sold over sixty, seventy thousand contracts here in the last, few days here.

Curt Kimmel: 02:26

Come out of the fund long was about, oh, 280,000 beans, maybe just slightly long. But, they've been getting right with it. Technical wise, we're in between or testing the two hundred day moving average on the corn. It's kind of an important area to try to stay above because once we go below there, it's kinda down. Beans failed to hold.

Curt Kimmel: 02:50

Of course, wheat failed to hold it, and so that just kinda adds a little bit of fuel to the fire, for for the most part. Oftentimes, you know, we either make a low or a high in mid February. So right now, it appears we've, evidently carved out a high here, for for the short term. Now the key is finding some stability here and some news to kinda ease the selling pressure. Export inspections, we shipped out 1,300,000 metric tons of corn, about 700,000 tons of beans.

Curt Kimmel: 03:24

Oh, about 390,000 tons of wheat. The corn is the upper end. The beans kinda in the middle there, so we're shipping out, what we sold. Mexico bought 14,000 tons of corn, so they're not completely mad at us at the moment right now, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 03:41

So talk about this liquidation from, the fund side. That will stop at some point. Do you think we'll find stability, and how quickly might that come, do you suppose?

Curt Kimmel: 03:54

Boy, time tie timing's timing's everything on it. Just depends how much the funds wanna move in through here. It's it's kinda a tough one to call. I know as you look at the long term weather forecast, it's questionable here for a growing season. When when you look at, you know, some crops not even being in the ground yet, you you question how much they can pressure.

Curt Kimmel: 04:22

But when the green line goes above the red, they buy. When it goes below, they sell. And right now, they're kinda selling pattern. But the uncertainty continues to be the tariffs fundamentally. And when you watch the news, the political wind shifts direction by every hour, so just a lot of uncertainty.

Curt Kimmel: 04:44

Hopefully, we'll have some type of decision on Canada and Mexico here shortly. And, of course, China looks like ten percent's on. I'm not was able to keep up with all the news today, but, I think that's kind of the, fundamental uncertainty, we're looking at right now. Plus two, the weather, short term weather is gonna warm up here, so it's favorable. So producers are gonna be able to get in the field here and get caught up on some field work.

Todd Gleason: 05:13

Your colleagues are in Denver at the Commodity Classic. Have you heard from them today other than, oh my gosh. What's happened in your office?

Curt Kimmel: 05:22

Have they had have they have have

Todd Gleason: 05:24

they had anything updates, from their side as to what farmers are thinking about or, thoughts from that, particular conference taking place?

Curt Kimmel: 05:37

Yeah. Unfortunately, I've not had the opportunity to visit with them other than just taking orders and putting out, putting out fires. But, Matt Bennett, he had the early riser presentation this morning. So I'm sure I'm sure the room was full, and I'm sure he was bombarded with what's going on. So I'll, punt punt this, kick the can, and let you ask him what questions he had earlier this morning.

Todd Gleason: 06:06

We will ask him on Thursday here on the closed EMIRC report. Ed Asad joined him as well. He's an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. Wrote me over the weekend because, you know, we he knew we were supposed to talk today and said, you know, I'm not gonna be available. And I was I said, yeah.

Todd Gleason: 06:21

I I understand. You'll be doing the early riser in Denver. So we'll we'll catch up with Ed in a month and see what he has to say as well. Anything from the livestock side that we should be aware of, reports, other things that have taken place?

Curt Kimmel: 06:37

You

Curt Kimmel: 06:37

know, as far as the fundamental picture, more of the same. We we still got particularly the beef, we got a tight situation. But, pork side, you know, we're dealing too with the the tariff. You know, what's going to develop all that, screw worm, out of Mexico. And then also too, we're still seeing, beef, coming in out of Brazil here.

Curt Kimmel: 07:04

The the fat market in general has been just a regular roller coaster here. Had a technical, breakdown here on Friday. We followed through, but even though the market closed higher, we bounced fairly good off the low. So we're due to have some, technical help there, hopefully. But the hog market's just in a total meltdown.

Curt Kimmel: 07:25

We've lost over $10 in those, and until we get some cookout feature going here, the meat market's probably gonna struggle.

Todd Gleason: 07:32

Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it, Kurt.

Curt Kimmel: 07:34

Okay. Very good.

Todd Gleason: 07:36

Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. Joined us here on the closing market report for this Monday afternoon. Don't forget that tomorrow, the all day I got look takes place at the beef house in Covington, Indiana. You may join us, but don't wait to pay for your registration until you walk in because we're gonna just send you to the website anyway. Willag.0rg or farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.

Todd Gleason: 08:02

Walk ins are welcome. The cost is $50. We'll start tomorrow around 08:30 central, nine thirty in the Eastern Time zone. Actually, not around. That's when we will start.

Todd Gleason: 08:15

An hour before that to come for the Beef House Rolls and Coffee. Look forward to seeing you there.

Curt Kimmel: 08:29

There There

Todd Gleason: 08:29

are a couple of items in today's agricultural news. We'll start with the SAF Coalition. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition met with key lawmakers on Capitol Hill to discuss critical policies supporting the domestic growth and adoption of sustainable aviation fuel in The United States. As part of the SAF Hill Day, these meetings underscored the vital role of SAF in creating new opportunities for Americans, including opening new markets for US Farmers, generating new and well paying jobs in rural communities, and promoting America's energy dominance. The SAF Coalition's conversations with our partners on Capitol Hill reinforce the broad, multisectoral, and bipartisan support for SAF policies, says the Coalition's Executive Director Allison Gribe.

Todd Gleason: 09:17

By working with lawmakers and industry stakeholders, she says we can ensure that The United States will maximize the potential and benefits of SAF. And USDA secretary, Brooke Rollins, told the annual Ag Outlook Forum held last week in Washington that The US farm economy is in dire straits, and she aims to get billions in farm disaster aid out swiftly.

Brooke Rollins: 09:41

The state of our agriculture economy is dire, perhaps one of the worst in the last one to three years.

Todd Gleason: 09:47

Rollins says the evidence of that is mounting.

Brooke Rollins: 09:50

There has been a rapid decline in the number of American farms. One in 10 farmers or farms have disappeared in the past decade. The cost of production is up by nearly 30% in the past year alone.

Todd Gleason: 10:05

But the secretary says she's committed to turning things around starting with disaster aid approved by Congress.

Brooke Rollins: 10:11

We're making great progress in getting the $30,000,000,000 in disaster and emergency relief out the door. I know there have been a lot of questions about that recently. The last thing that producers need is to have to wait again and again and again on the federal government.

Todd Gleason: 10:27

Rollins says USDA is moving at light speed to get the aid out to meet or beat the congress' March twenty first deadline set when it was approved during the lame duck session. Rollins also defended the president's tariff policy, but committed to making farmers whole against retaliation as it partially did in the first Trump administration. And that's a look at today's AgNews. We're now joined by Gary Schnicki, agricultural economist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the U of I, a member of the FarmDoc team. The February crop insurance setting month for prices for corn and soybeans has ended.

Todd Gleason: 11:18

Let's begin with those prices and how they compare to previous years.

Gary Schnitkey: 11:22

Yep. The the, February month is over, and, the the projected price for corn in Midwest states will be $4.70. So that is about the same as last year when it was $4.66, so almost the same as last year. So we're looking at roughly the same guarantees that we were this year versus last year. The one other thing that happened was the volatility was point one eight for corn.

Gary Schnitkey: 11:52

That was point one nine last year. So we'll see a little bit lower, premium cost for corn due to that, lower volatility. Soybeans was the projected price was $10.54. That's down by a dollar and 1¢ from $11.55 last year, matching, you know, what's going on in the markets now, where we're thinking corn may be more profitable than soybeans at this point in time. But $10.54 is a dollar less, so our guarantees will be less for soybeans than last year because we'll have a lower projected price.

Gary Schnitkey: 12:29

And, also, the, volatility went down from last year. It was point one five. This year, it will be point one four. So a slight decline in volatility, again, reducing, premium cost.

Todd Gleason: 12:43

There are a couple of things that you have been considering over the years,

Gary Schnitkey: 12:47

and the producers are always wondering, at what rate should they take the crop insurance. And then particularly for soybeans because it doesn't pay out as often, what that rate should be too. Yeah. What we see is farmers taking, typically pretty high coverage levels. Northern And Central Illinois will be in the 80 to 85% range for both corn and soybeans.

Gary Schnitkey: 13:17

In Southern Illinois, a little bit less than that. We see most people taking revenue protection, RP, so that will be over 90% of the policies. We sort of say if you're there, that would be a good place to continue to be. As you mentioned, we have seen low payouts on both corn and soybeans, particularly soybeans probably more than corn. So over the last ten years since 2014 to, 2023, we've seen, farmers pay in the crop insurance more than they paid out.

Gary Schnitkey: 13:59

Some farmers may be considering lowering coverage levels, and that may be appropriate. That's probably more appropriate for soybeans than for corn. One of the things that you worry about there is obviously a poor yielding year or and, you know, the drought of 2012 comes to mind. And, actually, that was the last big payout in the state was 2012. And, you know, those are one in twenty five year events, I suppose.

Gary Schnitkey: 14:31

So that that's what you would be concerned with with if you lower coverage levels.

Todd Gleason: 14:37

I know that producers will be asked about ECO and SCO both. What are your thoughts?

Gary Schnitkey: 14:44

So ECO, again, ECO, you might wanna take a look at it. This year, that policy will have roughly half the cost for the same coverage level, protection level that it did last year, and that's because the premium subsidy on that product was raised to 65%. So it's worth taking a look at. Even at those high coverage levels, most, if we look at actual or compare what it would have paid from 2015 through 2023, even at that higher higher, premium support, we don't see those policies paying out, as much as you paid in, and that's particularly true for soybeans. So if you're thinking ECL, probably think more of it for corn than for soybeans.

Gary Schnitkey: 15:37

And, again, it's a touch and go decision. I mean, it'll be half the premium cost as last year, and, and, so take a look at it. SCL is something that you can also take a look at, and that's a like DCO, a county level coverage, but it goes from 86% down to the RP coverage level. You do not have to take ECL or SCO with ECL, and some farmers may simply forego SCL. ECL would trigger much quicker because it's a 9095% coverage level, so being up there may be a good place to be.

Gary Schnitkey: 16:19

Also, to take SCL, you have to be in PLC for your commodity title choice, and we're sort of leaning more towards ARC County for soybeans, corn, and wheat this year. So and and that's sort of free money versus having to pay a premium for SCO.

Todd Gleason: 16:44

The Arc PLC decision is not made this year at the same time as normal. It's been delayed for a month. Do we know a reason behind that? And does that delay offer anything to producers as it's related to their crop insurance decisions or the ARC PLC decision?

Gary Schnitkey: 17:03

Yeah. So the same it hasn't been changed. The the the delay from March 15 to April 15 hasn't changed any, you know, restrictions on crop insurance products. So, that's not a big deal. But, they probably changed the date they did that in the Ag Relief Act, probably just to give farmers more time.

Gary Schnitkey: 17:30

You'll have another month to look at prices and make projections on what, what's going on on there. So that that's the advantage. I kinda doubt that it's going to change month and much in our projections, but, you never know. So we'll wait and see. But, again, that ARC PLC decision, if you don't do anything, it will be the same as last year.

Todd Gleason: 17:56

Have you written an article for this and posted it to the website? Will be people will be able to find it someplace?

Gary Schnitkey: 18:01

Yeah. We've written an article on ARC PLC, and now I don't know the exact date, but, it's it's it's it's on one of our Tuesday articles.

Todd Gleason: 18:10

And expectations for the crop insurance as well?

Gary Schnitkey: 18:12

That will be out tomorrow. So

Todd Gleason: 18:14

And you'll be at the All DAG Outlook at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana with us in case people want to

Gary Schnitkey: 18:20

see you in person tomorrow. Thank you, for that too. Yeah. Looking forward to seeing everyone at the Ag Day Outlook tomorrow.

Todd Gleason: 18:27

In the Beef House, Covington, Indiana, Gary Schnittke will be there along with the whole of the farm dog team, many others. You can join us. Still walk ins are welcome. You can still go on the website to pay ahead of time. In fact, that's easiest to do.

Todd Gleason: 18:39

The cost is $50, so make sure you, go online, willag.org or farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. Get yourself registered, and we will see you tomorrow at the Beef House. Let's check-in now with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi, Mark.

Todd Gleason: 19:07

Thanks for being with us again on Monday. Begin in South America for me. There have been some problem areas in the past. There are some problem areas, I think, maybe developing. However, you have a better scope of what's taking place.

Todd Gleason: 19:23

Can you give me some ideas of what Argentina and Brazil and places in between look like?

Mark Russo: 19:28

Oh, well, Todd. One area that initially had problems back January, and the February was Argentina. But throughout the February, Argentina saw significant rainfall and March is the March has followed suit as well. So that has actually helped to, improve crop conditions especially for soybeans and but, with the timing here going through critical stages of pod development. For Brazil, initially things also were more a bit more negative with the start of soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting because things were on the delayed side due to later planted crops and then also, overall wet conditions.

Mark Russo: 20:14

But in recent weeks, that has improved with a drier bias in Brazil. As we look ahead here for the next few weeks, it still still looks like much of Brazil will be drier biased, so that will favor soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. That does put more emphasis on another rain event returning later on this month in the Safrina Court areas to allow for a good germination and establishment of newly planted corn. And, so that's one thing to keep an eye on. Overall, at least the driest and kind of biggest concern right now is actually not corn and soybeans.

Mark Russo: 20:52

It's actually more extreme dryness developing in the sugarcane and coffee areas of Brazil.

Todd Gleason: 20:58

Those would be in the southern parts of this nation?

Mark Russo: 21:01

Yeah. Southeastern states including, Sao Paulo and Minas Darius.

Todd Gleason: 21:06

Here in The United States, what are you watching?

Mark Russo: 21:08

Yeah. We're watching here a significant winter storm, which is going to be ejecting out from the Rockies into the plains later today. Track then across the plains and Midwest tomorrow on into Wednesday, and that does look to produce actually some blizzard conditions in areas of the plains, even parts of the Upper Midwest. So what's going to be taking place is a swath of, heavier snow from, like, East Far Eastern Colorado up through Nebraska, Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and also some really strong winds. Some gusts up to an over 60 miles per hour, enough to cause whiteout conditions and disrupt transportation here across those areas.

Mark Russo: 21:51

Another impact here of the snow is actually going to be, when it eventually melts, but, that snow melt into the soils in the Upper Midwest, which has been really, really dry in Minnesota, the Dakotas. And this is actually gonna be one of the biggest precip events that that area has seen, in a while.

Todd Gleason: 22:08

So I was taking a look at some of the, precipitation year to date across the Midwest, and it appears things are really very behind. Can we catch up quickly as we move from winter to spring?

Mark Russo: 22:22

Yeah. We can. This is the time of year where spring patterns evolve, which we're now beginning to see that, across across The US. You can have some moderate to heavier rainfall, or snowfall which can begin to quickly make up the deficit. So we're starting the process.

Mark Russo: 22:40

We're not going to be fully eliminating it here at least in the next couple of weeks, but it is going to improve. The situation will improve as we go through the March.

Todd Gleason: 22:51

You'll help us keep track of that as we make our way through the growing season in The United States. Thank you for all the work.

Mark Russo: 22:57

You're welcome, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 22:58

It's Mark Russo. He's with AberStream Analytics, joined us here on the closing market report that came to you from Illinois. Public media, it is public radio for the farming world. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.